rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

You know, I think they did !, it gets worse day by day.

Oil now under $45 heading south?

you would be a very brave man to back that hunch, as assuredly the price will turn, and when it does so, the move will be sharp ...... >$50 is not economical even for Saudi, which is, I think, the cheapest major producer, so though the shorters may be having their day, the wise ones will at least be starting to bank their profits ..... remember, it is the cold months that are now fast approaching and not the warm ones

Oil was uneconomical for many countries at $10, but it stayed there for a long time. I wouldn't be surprised to see the price overshoot on the downside in the same way as it did on the up. Remember, markets are sometimes irrational for longer than you might think.

Strawbs.

The yanks are talking about gasoline at $1 per gallon next year they need to revive their auto industry which up till now looked in terminal decline. One good thing has come out of the oil price spike is that the americans have been made aware that "gas guzzlers" are on the way out.

Merrill Lynch warns oil price could fall to $25 next year (source FT).

Gazprom was warning of $200 in July and Goldman's $175. However if the cost of production is $80 for Brazil and Iran approx. and $45 for Saudi and the price goes below that for a period of time they simply won't bother taking it out of the ground and then you get a supply crunch and the price goes up surely?May be the costs will drop with lower rig/ labour hire but there is no viable global substitute for oil, we love to drive!

Most oil producing countrys need cash to maintain their ever more costly infrastructure it is all about supply and demand. At the moment it looks as though buyers are going to regain the "high ground" after the greedy producers have nearly wrecked the world economy. As far as this winter is concerned the oil has been bought forward already. Production costs will be cut back after the excesses of 2007/8.

"after the greedy producers have nearly wrecked the world economy"
Not really sure that the World economy has been , erm, lets say "Subdued" by the producers of oil.
I agree that the high prices contributed greatly to the general downturn but the flames were fanned by the irrational thought that the economies of the world could only go up.
Demand for crude grew and grew withy countries such as china using as much oil as could be pumped from the ground and as we all know, supply and demand are the main factors that mould the market price, cost of houses in this country being a case in point........

halifax .... you are talking absolute crap! ..... "production costs will be cut back" - perhaps you could explain how? ..... "greedy producers ....." - again absolute rubbish ..... the world has changed since 1973 (or was it 1983) and world economies learnt to adapt to higher oil prices

strawbs ..... when oil was $10.00, gold was $30.00 ..... all sorts of radical things have changed in the world since those days ..... there is no doubt in my mind, that though the oil price is indeed market and supply/demand driven, if it stays too low too long, the likes of Aramco (Saudi to you) will just stop work on developing new wells etc and generally cut back supply until it becomes economic once more

I think the oil price was driven up by speculation and demand. Demand from the new emerging economies put pressure on supply, which struggled due to years of under investment. Investors/speculators jumped on the bandwagaon amidst reports of a new economic boom and the rapidly approaching "peak oil". Tight supply became squeezed and the only direction was up. Most oil producers suffered from years of under valued oil, so they can hardly be blamed for wishing to redress the balance.

Indeed the world has changed, and yet in many ways remained the same. I believe a number of oil sources are uneconomical at these prices, e.g. deep water oil, tar sands etc. Given a few years of unwinding speculation and balanced demand then the price should recover some lost ground.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

I should add that oil producers are in a difficult position. If they cut back heavily on supply to push up prices, they risk accelerating the worldwide recession and subsequently pricing out demand. Leaving prices low retains demand and hopefully aids recovery. I suspect OPEC understands the position they're in.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

Regardless of the bottom for oil, I have bought wti or hedged on the way down and taken the hedge off!I am under the possibly mistaken impression that on a technical basis $43 is a fib retracement and bottom of the channel. I am hoping for a bounce to $49 as the trading range for it tends to span $7. I gather that technincally oil needs to rise greater than 20% to confirm a trend reversal and break through the moving average which I would guess is around $65

Falco - i suspect you are much more likely to be right than wrong

Strawbs - there was arguably under-investment in refining capacity rather than getting the stuff out of the ground in the first place ..... however, you are certainly right about the OPEC dilemma, but as i have written before, i really do not anticipate Nymex remaining >$50 for long ..... if you want a time limit, then i would stick my neck and say within 3/4 months and maybe sooner

You could be right. The winter months should stimulate some form of price recovery. I guess it all depends on how much of the price was speculation, how much was real demand, and perhaps how much is now "short" speculation too.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

I think the dollar plays a major part as well and when many were suggesting that it was going to implode at 2 pounds and 1.6 euros {bit like the pound at the moment] oil was cited as being a good hedge. I quite like trading on a hedging principle as it is basically insurance ie buying heating oil etf at these levels proportionate to the annual fuel bill... if it carries on dropping the bills get cheaper at least they would if there were not a utility cartelle with no effective regulation or correlation to what it buys gas at and what it charges for it... they had better start cutting charges soon or I will have to write to my MP!

Thinking about winter demand. Presumably much of it was paid for in the Summer as the larger energy companies would need to have a guaranteed supply. I guess that would mean that any oil demand/price rise might be equally lagged unless the winter is worse than expected. Just a thought.

Strawbs.

NYMEX TRADING
I have just spoken to IG on this score .... they will offer $2.50 per point - i.e. for every $1.00 oil moves, your profit/loss is $250.
It works against monthly contracts - like a traditional traded option - so the underlying price will vary.
Risk is still quite high, but it's worth investigation for those of that bent

I read somewhere a while back that utilities bought forward Jan.09 at equiv $110 crude though that is only from memory which isn't what it was...

Long dax short ftse pairs trade less than 350 points between them!Cynic I can only see $5 on ig for wti/brent