rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

cynic you answered your own question in thread 3632 in reply to strawbs.

i re-read and saw no contradiction

The cost of production includes investment in new supply, drilling, etc. If you cancel that investment, then the cost of production comes down. If you don't need the supply, you don't need the investment. I believe that's what happened after the last oil shock. Of course that just means when demand picks up, the same supply side issues appear, and the price is squeezed upwards. You probably need to consider cost volumes too. e.g. It might be barely profitable to sell 80 million barrels a day at $x, but unprofitable to sell 79.9 million at the same cost.

I don't have a clue what the true value is, but I suspect it's dynamic relative to demand. The figure may also be different depending on whom you talk to. One producer may have spent a significant sum on producing from a new well and need $75 oil to break even, another with a mature field may only need $10 oil. The market will adjust higher, or the more expensive producer will go out of business. That's capitalism!

Strawbs.

i think you will find that saudi (and prob the others too) farm out their drilling etc to the likes of halliburton, schlumberger and BJ ..... rest assured that these guys do not invest in new kit unless they have to ..... in fact, to save "real" cost these guys in turn outsource some of the disposables that they need - e.g. HCL for fraccing and the procurement and transport for same

i would lay no claim whatsoever to being an economist or even an economic historian, but i am sure they would not agree with you overall

and while writing that, am glad to note that my Dow short opened this morning has borne fruit, though not unexpectedly

Well I'm not an economist either, although I do read a lot about economic, stock market history etc. I'm certainly no expert, and generally economist disagree just as much as any other type of professional. You have to weigh up the evidence and draw your own conclusions.

It doesn't matter who does the work on an oil field, just as it doesn't matter who does the work on anything. If they're not cost efficent in the market (whatever it may be), someone will do the work for less, or they'll cut staff, cut investment, or go out of business. Classic deflationary spiral ..... but that's probably an argument for another day.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

indeed ..... in fact, as i wrote before, i think the "natural" level for light crude is now about $100.00, so i don't believe, let alone trust, either pundit!

Remember. It's not what you think that's profitable. It's what the markets think. But if you get there first and they catch up, then that's OK. :-)

Strawbs.

our company actually supplies a lot of HCL and transport in saudi, hence what little i know

Just to change theme, does anyone know when the decision about the US carmakers will be made? Bound to affect the market one way or t'other.

new year i would guess ..... unions will have much to say, though they appear to be fairly conciliatory and constructive at the mo ..... will also give the CEOs time to sell their jets and prove as much!

They're discussing it as I write.

The way things are going, next year will be too late I'd thought!

I thought they were supposed to be OK up until March, but then would start to be in trouble?

Strawbs.

The auto industry was crushed in England many years ago because it did not move with the times,why should Detroit be bailed out these automakers are dinosaurs and like all dinosaurs will die out in the long run.

Not sure strawbs

I imagine there'll be a lot of tough talking and then the car makers will get their money.
2517

I suspect that may well be the case no matter what the rights or wrongs of it.

the car makers will get the dosh because failing to do so will cause unbelievable further unemployment ...... Ford say they will be profitable again in 2011 ..... believe that and you'll believe shadow!

I don't think the bailout's a given. They may just gamble that chapter 11 would give the companies more flexibility in the long run to reorganise on their terms, rather than the unions/dealers. I guess leaving it for the new president might also be an option, given they only have to wait until the end of January.

In my opinion.

Strawbs.

Apparently, possible bankruptcy for 2/3 of them (not Ford) would either be before the year out or early next year.