ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

Evening all

Well, just for once I made a correct call yesterday evening, so feeling a little pleased with myself! 45p is staved off for the time being. I agree with Willfagg, in that I suspect the SP will trade sideways for a little while now. If after that period and no news / other information is forthcoming it will commence to slide again. I still expect Support at 45p to be tested, which may become my entry point. Interesting that someone on a rival BB, stated that the'psychological' support level of 50p may be tested. What on earth is a 'psychological' support level? load of B******s if you ask me!!

regards

PTH

ptholden, willfagg et al. (sorry to call other readers al!)

A lot of interest in the short-term prospects for the ASOS price. I don't think any reader doubts the potential strength of the share price in the light of expected trading levels over Xmas and beyond. The key question is when to buy and at what price. I think my remarks are directed to my friend PTH who has been very helpful with his graphs, etc.

First, my own history in the share which helps to explain my current actions. I bought at prices between 23p and 32p in March and April, building up a very much overweight holding which accounted for more than half of my total investment. I took some profits on the results during July only to buy back in August when the trading statements revised market expectations. It is interesting that the purchases on August 10th were at 41p although the end of day price was never below 46p - an indication of the volatility of the share price and the need to watch intra-day price movements. I have recently been taking profits at prices between 55p and 64p not primarily to lock in profits but to free funds for short-term stakes in other shares. I have taken profits of about 22K and have a paper profit of about 20K on current holdings.

Generally, my attitude is very like that of willfagg. I have been prepared to dilute the holding rather than have the funds relatively inactive for a couple of months. This is a risk in itself, given that positive news could rush the price ahead at any time - however, I see no reason why ASOS should want to blow their trumpet for no real reason. Nor do I see the price coming back much more. The expectation is already higher than the trough in August due to the AGM statement. There appears to be a current contest (last 2 days) between bears and bulls. I have three main conclusions, particularly for PTH. First, it is one thing for me to have, probably temporarily, diluted my holding, it is quite another not to be in the share at all. The downside potential now must be very small; against that is a very significant upside, whatever your analysis. Second, if buying, I would buy on intra-day weakness, for instance you could have bought at 52.74p for a few minutes early this morning. Having said that, the gains could be marginal against the risk of losing out a major rise. Third, when my funds which are otherwise occupied on a short-term basis become free, I will almost certainly increase the ASOS holding at the then price. Good luck!

Eric

Eric,

I actually agree with your three points, it would be hard not too! Obviously I maintain an interest in ASOS, why else post? I continue to look for an entry point, and have thus far saved myself approx 13p by not rushing in. The trick of course, is to judge the moment as best I can, otherwise I will not have saved anything! Unfortunately funds remain elusive at the moment and are tied up in relatively longer term investments, when actually I have discovered I am probably a short to medium term investor. I have a tough call to make tomorrow to which may swell the coffers. Ho Hum, decisions, decisions!! But whatever, the Golf Course will be visited.

regards

PTH

pth

I hope you won that fortune on the golf course! The ASOS share price, in the meantime has in fact bounced off the Bollinger Band - fascinating! Strong buying early on; subsequent sporadic selling still left ASC in positive territory. An exciting day in Yoomedia (YOO) and I can't switch funds back yet-a-while; I am really wanting ASC to mark time for a bit, or ease somewhat, but that seems increasingly doubtful.

good luck

Eric

Eric,

Quite an atrocious game of golf from yours truly, so not a particularly happy bunny this evening, never mind there's always tomorrow. Following my post last night, I had a look at the RSI for ASC and realised that they have never dipped below the 30 level and in fact have always bounced from that level when tested, interesting. As you say, doubtful now whether it will mark time, I think yesterday was the tester and thus far ASC has passed with flying colours, and as you have stated previously I may never own shares in ASC!

Regards

PTH

good post EW , quite agree with all. I admit I was lucky and bought at 10p and was cosidering selling some when they dropped of their peak in August. However I could not see a share about which i felt more confident in the medium term so when they briefly dipped to 42p i bought some more.as you can see i am not always very good at following the rule book.still think this and superscap are the best things around at the moment and still think if PTH buys at best over in current period they will double by Jan/Feb time( after Xmas trading results ahve filtered through)PS i would tell you about the ones i have screwed up but its regretably a much longer story, but im learning.

ptholden:

I agree with your RSI analysis, I always use it to support a Bollinger move, it's always good to have more than one indicator supporting a share price move, in either direction!

Take a look at BPRG, interesting share.

Thanks, AdieH, long term holder already:)

johngtudor, ptholden

Great having the chartist expertise available! Thought RSI was Recurrent Sprain Injury but now realise it is Relative Strength Index. Do you have chart for ASOS? Presumably the testing of the 30 bottom is a measure that oversold. RSI and BB would appear to take account of randomness in buying and selling when a particular balance is established. If significant news occurs, presumably this is, in a sense, a discontinuity, perhaps resulting in an overnight mark-up or a heavy bout of buying (or the reverse). This has clearly happened twice already in the last few months with ASOS. My argument, in line with willfagg, is that this will probably happen once or twice in the next four months with ASOS. The charts can't be expected to anticipate this except perhaps in the balance of buyers v sellers. However, I realise that the theory has a place and am resolved to work through the eyield seminar.

Quiet today suggesting that both buyers and sellers are having a rest day or that the price is sitting at a happy medium.

By the way, PTH, had a good day on Monday with 36 Stableford points and expected to win some lolly - only to realise that I had had an SM and forgotten to put my stake in!

Eric

Hi Eric,

I think the general approach should be to think like a Fundamentalist and act like a Technician! A combination of the 2 approaches, should on the whole result in some good investments. As for the Relative Strengh Indicator (watch the wrist), it should be remembered that it is defined in the books as an oscillator to help identify tops and bottoms of movements, as against other trend following analysis. I personally use 75% and 25% lines across the RSI chart to identify the overbought or oversold conditions. Others, and in fact more popular lines are drawn at 30% and 70%. Up to you. As for posting the chart if you go the charts section on MoneyAM, and then choose indicators you will see they default to the 9 and 14 day RSI averages. Again its a matter of choice. Shares like to use the 14 day as do others, so be warned.

Today has seen little volume so no real trend yet! By the way did you buy into BUR after my earlier comment and have you seen PET today...with PCI to follow no doubt?

johngtudor

Thanks for the chart input which I will be pursuing. Re the shares, for someone 'comfortable with risk' (Shares comment on my porfolio), I have up to now steered clear of the energy sector. When my current investment position unfolds and there are funds to redirect, I will take a long, hard look. I accept the timing issue but you can be spread too thinly. As a matter of some urgency, I would recommend a good look at YOO (the bb is helpful). EVO have just put out a very bullish forecast but the market has not taken on board their acquisition yesterday from MMTV of the 15m health project. I have a competition between YOO and ASC in my own protfolio - who will double first?

Eric

Hi Eric,

Thanks your comment. I am watching and looking at YOO very carefully + BPRG which is having a battle with the 120p resistance at the moment, once cleared I think it might shoot to 160p..not sure yet about YOO. Timing as you say is everything, but the Energy Sector has to be in your 'risk' portfolio! We are currently at quarter end for the Fund Industry (end September) so it will be interesting to see how the market goes from here....If it is turning then Finacial Stocks that have underperformed for some time could well come to the fore! Have a profitable day! John

Eric,

ASC!

John,

BPRG may have broken through today, if the court case verdict is in BPRG favour, I also suspect 160 and beyond will be on the cards. Even if the court case is against, probably ownly a slight setback. Apologies for being off thread.

PTH

pth

OK! Starting point is, for the record: ASC 56p; YOO 22p.

Looks like a bear attack today with persistant selling, much in blocks of 25K and 35K shares. Might give the best buy opportunity.

Eric

Morning Eric, sorry to see YOO on a bit of a slide, but well maybe a buying opportunity.

Released some funds yesterday, for a possible buy into ASC, but have got sidetracked this morning by PRE. So ASC on the back burner again for a while. ASC treading water at the moment it seems, so by the time it decides what to do, I may be ready. Will have a look at the charts again later today and see if there are any indicators.

regards

PTH

PTH:

So good call on BPRG. Lots of good news flow, and although I normally like to see a 2 day close over my target entry points as well as an end of week close, this was too good an opportunity to miss and bought in. We now have a positive court verdict on the patent issue and probably lots of good weekend press coverage to come as well. So as previously discussed I think the 160p target is now ON. We shall see.

The ASC AGM seems to have missed the staid journalists on Shares and IC, still lots of time yet to beef up the press coverage!


Have a profitable day!! John

Looks like ASC may be about to test support at 55p again. Chart doesn't look quite as clear cut as the previous bounce of a few days ago. Bollinger Bands now at a slightly lower, RSI at a mid level. Will be interesting to see which way it goes. If it fails at 55p, next Chart support is at 45p.

Regards

PTH

John

Having read the BPRG statement first, it appered that they had it all their own way. Have now read the SEO statement and it is a slightly different story. Both companies look like they have come out with a bit of a win, which suits all Private Investors, so it seems a pleasing result for all concerned. Sorry to be off thread yet again!!

PTH

PTH:

Agree with your analysis on both ASC and BPRG. John