markymar
- 03 Dec 2003 11:36
halifax
- 05 Mar 2010 18:30
- 3855 of 6492
TFC the tight stop on the short is protection if oil/gas is found, and then we run our long position...get it?
ptholden
- 05 Mar 2010 18:33
- 3856 of 6492
If oil or gas is found, your tight stop will be left a long way behind and you'll be taken out much higher up and therefore worthless. If you're trading with SBs or CFDs recommend you make it a guaranteed stop and pay the premium.
PS. Why does it look like a short?
halifax
- 05 Mar 2010 18:38
- 3857 of 6492
pth you don't need technical analysis either DES makes a strike or it doesn't so backing this donkey both ways means you can end up a winner providing you have intelligent stops in place, surprised you don't understand what is an easy strategy.
halifax
- 05 Mar 2010 18:40
- 3858 of 6492
pth guaranteed stops are always a must don't you know?
ptholden
- 05 Mar 2010 18:46
- 3859 of 6492
Halixax, don't patronise me, I fully understand your strategy, what I don't understand is why it 'looks like a short' and quite obviously neither do you, otherwise we might have had a coherent riposte rather than assuming the drill will be a duster.
I'm afraid you've shown yourself up here, best you keep quiet unless you have something worthwhile to offer.
halifax
- 05 Mar 2010 18:53
- 3860 of 6492
pth as you may appreciate most punters are long DES being ever optimistic! Taking a short position with a guaranteed stop would protect them from what may become an expensive disappointment. If the first drill is a duster even you must realise the sp would crash.
cynic
- 05 Mar 2010 19:38
- 3861 of 6492
Q .... what premium a GUARANTEED stop? ...... i wager it's its very heavy indeed (30/40p?) and will have been for several weeks, so please enlighten us halifax, or have you not actually married money with mouth? ..... if you insist, i could probably check it in the morning, always subject to being near my computer (work beckons)
cynic
- 05 Mar 2010 19:40
- 3862 of 6492
whoops! my time out of kilter .... could not do until monday, but no chance then as am flying to/from elsewhere
HARRYCAT
- 05 Mar 2010 21:25
- 3863 of 6492
So, in summary to all of the above posts, can I assume then that whichever position you hold, you are either going to win or lose depending on the result of the first drill. There is therefore no hedging position?
Also to re-iterate a broker's summary of the risks (can't find the exact ref atm, but will persevere) the likelihood of success of the first well hitting a commercially viable reservoir is approx 20%. That's not to say that if the first well is a duster, then we all pack up & go home. But 50% probability is ludicrous, imo.
cynic
- 06 Mar 2010 05:37
- 3864 of 6492
pretty much that harry ...... the idea of hedging with a short + guaranteed stop is great, but the reality is 99% certain to be uneconomical ...... shorting as a hedge without the guaranteed stop is just dumb ..... whatever one's view, basic prudence is to ensure that you can afford to lose perhaps 50/75% of your stake in the event that the first hole is a dud.
imo, the result from this first well will set the sentiment for all minnow-shares operating in the region for quite some time ..... that said, should this first hole be just that, then it is a racing certainty that there will be an over-reaction as packs of lemmings hurtle over the cliff ..... there will then come a point where an excellent trading opportunity will present - or an opportunity to buy on the cheap for long(er) term.
DES will be very well aware of the importance of this first attempt, and as i posted some time back, i think they will have chosen the most promising site for this ..... but that does not mean they have got it right, as the history of drilling for oil regularly reminds us.
required field
- 06 Mar 2010 09:19
- 3865 of 6492
We may not get an update if the first target is dry.....and might be a late one on the follow up......but the chances are high that during this year Desire Petroleum will come up with the goods !.
halifax
- 06 Mar 2010 12:46
- 3867 of 6492
cynic glad you like our idea of shorting with a guaranteed stop but as we stated in 3842 only if you can get one, DES is likely to move up or down swiftly and violently as soon as drilling results are known, if like us you are long then try to get as much protection as possible.(by the way IG won't do it.) The question of the cost of controlled risk premium is relevant where a sp is likely to be less volatile than expected in this case.
halifax
- 06 Mar 2010 12:49
- 3868 of 6492
marky we hope you are right!
cynic
- 06 Mar 2010 13:16
- 3869 of 6492
my holding is sufficient if lots of oil is found, and not so large that i'll jump off a bridge if this first well is a dud .... after the result is announced (RF - don't be so silly! ... an rns will be obligatory), a new game will start
halifax - no one but no one is going to offer a modest enough premium for a guaranteed stop to make such an exercise worthwhile.
TheFrenchConnection
- 06 Mar 2010 15:11
- 3870 of 6492
Mr.C ..The Albert Bridge perhaps ? Then i wont have too far to walk and watch with glee.,,,,,,.:-)) ..,,,and in full colourful golfing attire/ uniform if you would; thearby maximising visibility for the multitudes of observers. :-)) ..........Marky- Hopefully you walk away with a sackfull of crisp 50,s old bean - lts been a long patient wait for you personally. By my calcs you must have at least been in since 2004 (> A Simple notion > ....even if first well is non commercial and s/p is given a right larruping DES simply move onto next well and as mr.c states a new game will start and PERHAPS with reward ratio being so high momentum will carry it back to current anticapatory level.. lts certainly not a one trick pony .................
halifax
- 06 Mar 2010 15:19
- 3871 of 6492
TFC never mind the BS most of us are concerned about how the sp will behave up to and after the news of results of the first well drilled..... we hope we won't be well drilled!
TheFrenchConnection
- 06 Mar 2010 16:15
- 3872 of 6492
While not being a holder in DES i do have a floatation priced position in FOGL and am therefore indirectly effected ........Come on Now !!.... YOU MUST know how s/p will behave lNITIALLY, and i underscore the word INITIALLY, if first well is a duster/ non viable when the stop losses and lemmings come into play and mms come into their own !!!... ! sincerely hope, of course, it wont be neg, news..... But if it is you must know - commercial payload and it doubles/ A duster and what with typical market over-reaction ,it could easily halve ( Prob be a decent entry point -only jesting ). DES has never been an easy ride.Whether it be a single year or 10 year chart its like a a map of the himalayas
HARRYCAT
- 06 Mar 2010 19:08
- 3874 of 6492
Marky, I am sure others have mentioned it in previous posts & I am not trying to preach to you, but you are extremely exposed to losing much of your substantial profit if the first one is a duster, regardless of subsequent drilling & testing. Having been the premier researcher here & probably most loyal shareholder, it would be a real shame to lose your 'life changing profit'.