rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

it's Dow or similar that is they key, depending on how Fed's decision, whatever it may be, is perceived by the markets

Slightly off topic here but just a note for you avid golfers. Forget the bbc for weather forecasts they are as trivial as doing financial reseach via the Sun. Try out xcweather.co.uk, magicseweed.com or perhaps best of all windguru.cz, knowing crosswind speeds, levels of precipitation may give you an edge. Sunday is forecast to be perhaps the wildest storm of the year. 8 metre swell and 50mph wind, not ideal for golf!

8 metre swell? ..... where? ..... in the casual water in the bunkers?

You might need to be out of the bunkers to get to grips with the 8 metre swell cynic, though I'm sure there's a few low lying courses that may end up with more bass than golfers in them on Sunday! http://www.windguru.cz/int/index.php?sc=119

Back to topic, my short would have worked out if i had kept a longer stop of 50 points. I didn't have the balls for it today though, which suggests I should have set an order to open. Hindsight ain't it great.

If it is going to be that windy might go for quick trip to coast, great to watch the breakers roll in, might help me work out my strategy for coming week.

Take your canoe & you can try trading from a Central American internet caffor a while. Double whammy! Life insurance payments & spreadbetting profits! :o)

the major unpredictable is market sentiment ..... whatever the Fed does, be in 1/4 or 1/2 % cut, the market could react either way (i assume you can work out why) .... my gut feeling remains that the market will tank, and there is a pretty strong opinion abroad that it will then keep going south.

i now have a smallish Dow short running, but i have placed a stop about 100 pts away lest i have called wrong ...... i have also taken at least some other money off the table

i certainly do not see the Dow getting beyond about 14250, or arguably 200 above that .... if it does indeed reach those heights, then a short becomes an odds-on bet

would think fed will cut by 1/4 which I guess is already in to prices, if they cut by 1/2 it could be taken as a signal that the economy is heading for real trouble, and index could fall very rapidly indeed.

will wait for downward momentum first before going short, I appreciate I will never catch the top. But will still go long if that is the trend on the day.

Check the Rightmove housing data due for release Monday morning, I think normally very early release. Could dictate the mood of the morning.

And thanks falcothou for weather reports for Golfers, my course is already becoming boggy in places, may need to play in wellies soon. But not in the rain for me.

This is one of my favourites http://www.meteonet.nl/aktueel/brackall.htm
shows the 965 low that is going to hit tomorrow. Of course there's very little wind in the eye of the storm and the extreme low pressure allows the air to rise easily, not that I'm drawing any comparisons with the DOW or anything!

I think dow will struggle to hit 13950, but am going to wait till fed decision.

Dow is up 108 at moment, if interest rates are lowered 1/4 point would expect to see a pullback like the FTSE on Thursday. but 13950 might be reached after on a weak christmas rally.

I notice that last week the FTSE perform very much same as DOW today, it was up 89 points by 09:30 and carried rising all day to finnish 178 up.

Tom Stevenson in telegraph has contrarian view based on his recent trip to selfridges, reckons just as much chance of market falling 10-20% as there us of it rising 50-60%, based on lehmans 2008 equity market

Here is link :

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/12/11/ccinv111.xml

Personally think he's misguided, my local (less upmarket, more sub-prime really)shopping centre on saturday had alot of people but not many bags.

Time will tell, be interesting tonight whatever the decision

I like to hear contrarian views, but the percentages he quotes are huge on the upside. ( Guess thats why it's called contrarian )

ftse today seems to want to head south, but I can't decide yet if this will continue it's to early. Hopefully another hour and we might see a clearer picture. I will probably wait for the feds decision before trading.

Sideways movement until FED decision, imo. Trouble is the market is hoping for .5% cut but is expecting .25% cut. The .25% is meant to have already been factored in, but the market will be disappointed if they don't get .5%. So........unless the decision is .5% then there may be little movement in the DOW. It would certainly throw a cat amongst the pigeons if they decided on 'No change', but I think .25% is most likely. Maybe best to sit tight until the announcement.

short at 6532 on ftse

only a smallish position, hopefully correct call ?

ps - before I traded I taped my list of Golden rules above computer. Should stop me doing anything stupid.

I thought someone once said "Rules are made to be broken".
And also, while I am on the subject of quotations, there is quite a good one in Shares Mag this week: " People often cite the tax advantages of spread betting, but you can be assured that if people generally made money from betting, then the Chancellor would tax it." Hope you are making a living from it, spit!

stopped out at 6552 for 20 point loss,

not making a living with this, but only placing small positions while learning, still have alot to to learn.

Also from my neck of the woods, 3 local and not insubstantial developers have gone to the wall through oversupply of 2 bed flats in the last month as Nat-west manager got carried away and bosses found out and called in loans, several of them owing substantial sums to other contractors, another contact of mine has stock overhang for a year now and is not developing any further until they shift.

Add in our own inflated buy to let crowds reducing yields and locally at least things are turning for the worst, this is an area where we have average house price of 260k and average earnings of 22k, quite a multiple, isn't it.

There can be little doubt in my mind that things will turn down, we will probably follow in US footsteps as all the data would suggest significant slow down.


Have entered a short on dow to open at 13850 for feb, if it goes up significantly before fed decision then will move it on

moved short to current level and opened at 13720 with tight stop, looking bearish to me, will re-evaluate at 7pm when next free to look at the screen.