Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

UBS FULL BROKER NOTE THIS MORNING......

Consumer, Cyclical

Thomas Cook (TCG.L)

Alex Brignall.................. +44-20-7568 5674
Analyst
alex.brignall@ubs.com
Jarrod Castle, CFA..........+44-20-756 88883
Analyst
jarrod.castle@ubs.com

Price (06 Feb 2013)................ 86p/US$1.34
12-month rating............ Buy * (Unchanged)
12m price target.....Prior: 75p/US$1.17 =>
100p/US$1.57
Market cap...................£0.75bn/US$1.17bn
Full-Year EPS
2013E................................... 4.60p => 5.05p
2014E................................. 8.65p => 11.47p


L.ook after the pennies… Strong capacity control and encouraging pricing environment
Q1 revenues were down 7% to £1742m, driven by capacity reductions, most notably in
Continental Europe. The upshot of this has been a better pricing environment, with pricing up
6.-14% in winter and 0-3% for the summer season. Cost guidance improved and better trading driving improved profitability
Market focus was likely to be on any improvement to the cost guidance, and it came with an
additional £60m to be delivered by FY15, with £10m of additional extraction costs. We expect
more to come at the CMD. More impressively, the £22m improvement in Q1 profitability was not
impacted at all by cost measures, but rather better trading, suggesting further upside to the
current consensus EBIT uplift by 2014, particularly with H2 facing the softest comps from last
y.ear. Increasing EBIT forecasts by £50m in 2014, now see £140m uplift 2012-14
We have increased our 2014E EBIT by £40m (15%). We believe this remains conservative as it
assumes only a £10m additional gain from trading improvements beyond the £130m cost
reduction plan. We continue to forecast £125m of annual cash restructuring costs, which is
above the current guidance, and we believe any capital increase will lead to further
restructuring. The most significant project is to build an effective IT platform, though this is likely
t.o be a longer-term plan. Valuation – Reiterate Buy rating, PT increased to 100p from 75p
Owing to the significant financial leverage, our 15% EBIT increase in 2014 drives a 33% price
target increase to 100p (from 75p). We continue to value Thomas Cook on 5.6x 2014E EV/
EBITDAR, a 10% discount to history.
-
European Morning Meeting Highlights 08 February 2013
UBS 6

From the UBS note - I'd have thought that after the trading update yesterday, a quid target (bottom of the gap), is a fairly safe call!

Just been upgraded to Buy from hold.

28 Nov 12 Thomas Cook Group... Oriel Securities Hold 87.13 - - Reiterates

NOW

08 Feb Thomas Cook Group... TCG Oriel Securities Buy 86.38 85.50 - - Upgrades

HSBC upgrades £1.

Missed that.

The MS report:

We increase our PT to 100p (200p bull case) due to
better than expected results, the higher efficiency
target, and greater confidence in the turnaround.
We still assume £300m recovery EBIT and £400m
new equity (bull case £400m / £200m), and now
assume a higher P/E of 9x proforma EPS.
Strong underlying results: Q1’s seasonal loss fell by
25% (£23m), or 35% adjusting for last year’s provision
release. This was the first improved result in 7 quarters.
Gross profit margins rose 130bps, and were up in every
region, and were not yet benefitting from the efficiencies.
Current trading, while not as strong as TUI, is solid.
Upside risk to forecasts: TCG has already generated
42% of the £55m EBIT improvement needed to hit our
£200m FY estimate, despite Q1 suffering £20m of the
FY’s £50m fuel cost increase. The remaining 9 months
see most of the £85m annual cost savings guidance, a
reversal of last year’s £30m adverse publicity hit, and
less cost inflation. We are not changing EBIT forecasts
(EPS rises due to lower net finance), but we see upside.
Confidence in turnaround: Another £60m cost savings
makes £240m to come (on 2012 £145m adj EBIT), with
more promised at the spring review. A combination of
good gross margin progress, efficiency targets, TCG’s
historical profitability, and TUI’s solid performance give
us a high degree of confidence in our £300m EBIT
estimate, with our £400m bull case within line of sight.
Risk-reward ratio attractive: We are not changing our
assumption for £300m EBIT (and £400m new equity,
which is not in our estimates), but think this will happen
faster than expected, so use a higher P/E of 9x proforma
EPS. There is a chance the company also needs less
equity than we assume, and the strong share price move
also reduces the risk of being unable to raise equity.

08 Feb Thomas Cook Group... TCG HSBC Overweight 90.50 85.50 85.00 100.00 Reiterates

GF you got me convinced lol

GOOD. wry smile....... LOL

Worn you down into submission.

Always works.......wink.

BROKER State Of Play.......


Broker Start Date Action Previous
Recomm. New
Recomm. Recomm.
Change Prev.
Target New
Target Share
Price Target
Change
OurScore

HSBC 08/02/2013 Reiterates Overweight Overweight 0 85.00 100.00 85.50 15 2

Oriel Securities 08/02/2013 Upgrades Hold Buy 2 85.50 0 2

UBS 08/02/2013 Retains Buy Buy 0 75.00 100.00 85.50 25 2

Morgan Stanley 08/02/2013 Reiterates Overweight Overweight 0 60.00 100.00 85.50 40 2

Credit Suisse 07/02/2013 Reiterates Outperform Outperform 0 36.00 93.00 71.50 57 1

Thank you for all that info, gf.

A fairly typical example of a journalist trying to put negative spin on a positive story in the Telegraph today; "An improved performance from Thomas Cook was overshadowed on Thursday by shareholders giving the tour operator’s board a bloody nose over executive pay". - Well, oh my God, Harriet Green may pick up a salary of around £3m this year. Actually I don't care if someone who does a good job is paid a lot of money. How much do some of our idiot footballers get paid? How much does Jonathan Ross and some of those so-called television stars get paid?

Elsewhere, Thomas Cook’s (LON:TCG) shares took off again today after revealed smaller losses in yesterday’s first quarter results statement.

Broker Oriel upgraded the tour operator to first class, praising the new management for its part in the turnaround operation.
“A full strategy review is to be outlined in spring 2013 and we expect this will include plans to dispose of certain non-core businesses, some of which are loss-making,” said analyst Jeffrey Harwood.
Investors were less grateful for chief executive Harriet Green’s efforts, it would appear. Around 30% of Thomas Cook shareholders voted down the company’s remuneration report at yesterday’s AGM.
Advisory group Pirc had reportedly told investors to reject the executive pay packages as a result of the two-year notice period given to Green were she to be fired.
Shares though are going from strength to strength, up around 20p in just two days to stand at 89p each.

DirectorsTalk ‏@DirectorsTalk
Thomas Cook upgraded to first class - http://gd.is/HHCpbJ

Indeed indeed DB. Keep up the good work.

Check this out.......

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/holidays/article-2274964/Rising-cost-holidays-helps-Thomas-Cook-TUI-lessen-losses--summer-bookings-rise-years-washout.html#axzz2KIvCe21R

Top Of The Stocks......

Number of deals bought

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 VOD Vodafone Group plc 1.91
2 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 1.85
3 EZJ Easyjet plc 1.38
4 CEY Centamin plc 1.35
5 WRES W Resources Plc 1.21
6 TCG Thomas Cook Group plc 1.20
7 AV. Aviva plc 1.13
8 Apple Inc 1.12
9 BARC Barclays plc 1.11
10 BP. BP Plc 1.07
11 RBS Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc 1.03
12 AGK Aggreko Plc 0.97
13 ULVR Unilever plc 0.85
14 GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc 0.79
15 PFD Premier Foods plc 0.77
16 BDEV Barratt Developments plc 0.71
17 TSCO Tesco plc 0.70
18 RDSB Royal Dutch Shell Plc B Shares 0.70
19 IMT Imperial Tobacco Group 0.68
20 BG. BG Group plc 0.68
Top 20 as % of total stocks traded 21.21

Morgan Stanley hikes up target price on Thomas Cook
08th February 2013, 14:27

Morgan Stanley has reaffirmed its ‘overweight’ rating on Thomas Cook Group [LON:TCG] believing the that company can enact its turnaround and deliver faster than previously expected.

The City broker has increased its target price by a massive 67% to 100 pence a share (from 60 pence) after the company announced a strong set of results yesterday.

“We increase our price target to 100 pence (200 pence bull case) due to better than expected results, the higher efficiency target, and greater confidence in the turnaround,” analyst Jamie Rollo said in a note to clients today.

“We still assume £300m recovery EBIT and £400m new equity (bull case £400m / £200m), and now assume a higher P/E of 9x proforma EPS.”

On Wednesday, prior to the company’s results announcement, the stock was hovering around the 70 pence mark and now the shares are changing hands for roughly 90 pence apiece.

Thomas Cook (LON:TCG) shares took off on Friday on the back of an upgrade from Oriel Securities.

Analyst Jeffrey Harwood now rates the tour operator a ‘buy’ on the back of yesterday’s first quarter results, which showed its losses narrowed to £70mln.

With the business being transformed by new management, led by chief executive Harriet Green, Harwood reckons the shares have the potential for further recovery.

“A full strategy review is to be outlined in spring 2013 and we expect this will include plans to dispose of certain non-core businesses, some of which are loss-making,” said the analyst.

everyone seems to have forgotten the imminent cash call that was apparently telegraphed

RESEARCH ALERT-Thomas Cook: Peel Hunt raises target price08 Feb 2013 - 10:37

Feb 8 (Reuters) - Thomas Cook Group PLC : * Peel Hunt raises target price to 91p from 41p; rating hold For a summary of rating actions and price target changes on European companies: Reuters Eikon users, click on [RCH/EUROPE] Reuters 3000Xtra users, double-click [RCH/EUROPE] Reuters Station users, click .1580 ((nyc.equities.newsroom@reuters.com); (Reuters Messaging: saqib.ahmed.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net) ((Bangalore Newsroom +91 80 4135 5800; within U.S. +1 646 223 8780))

What imminent cash call cynic ?

i'm sure this was heavily flagged a few weeks back ...... sticky (aka goldfinger) will almost certainly know

==============

extracted from DB's own post 312!!!

Debt, at £788m, is too high and it is expected Thomas Cook will have to raise £300m to £400m to ease its balance sheet.