Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

Thank you for all that info, gf.

A fairly typical example of a journalist trying to put negative spin on a positive story in the Telegraph today; "An improved performance from Thomas Cook was overshadowed on Thursday by shareholders giving the tour operator’s board a bloody nose over executive pay". - Well, oh my God, Harriet Green may pick up a salary of around £3m this year. Actually I don't care if someone who does a good job is paid a lot of money. How much do some of our idiot footballers get paid? How much does Jonathan Ross and some of those so-called television stars get paid?

Elsewhere, Thomas Cook’s (LON:TCG) shares took off again today after revealed smaller losses in yesterday’s first quarter results statement.

Broker Oriel upgraded the tour operator to first class, praising the new management for its part in the turnaround operation.
“A full strategy review is to be outlined in spring 2013 and we expect this will include plans to dispose of certain non-core businesses, some of which are loss-making,” said analyst Jeffrey Harwood.
Investors were less grateful for chief executive Harriet Green’s efforts, it would appear. Around 30% of Thomas Cook shareholders voted down the company’s remuneration report at yesterday’s AGM.
Advisory group Pirc had reportedly told investors to reject the executive pay packages as a result of the two-year notice period given to Green were she to be fired.
Shares though are going from strength to strength, up around 20p in just two days to stand at 89p each.

DirectorsTalk ‏@DirectorsTalk
Thomas Cook upgraded to first class - http://gd.is/HHCpbJ

Indeed indeed DB. Keep up the good work.

Check this out.......

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/holidays/article-2274964/Rising-cost-holidays-helps-Thomas-Cook-TUI-lessen-losses--summer-bookings-rise-years-washout.html#axzz2KIvCe21R

Top Of The Stocks......

Number of deals bought

Place EPIC Equity name %
1 VOD Vodafone Group plc 1.91
2 LLOY Lloyds Banking Group plc 1.85
3 EZJ Easyjet plc 1.38
4 CEY Centamin plc 1.35
5 WRES W Resources Plc 1.21
6 TCG Thomas Cook Group plc 1.20
7 AV. Aviva plc 1.13
8 Apple Inc 1.12
9 BARC Barclays plc 1.11
10 BP. BP Plc 1.07
11 RBS Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc 1.03
12 AGK Aggreko Plc 0.97
13 ULVR Unilever plc 0.85
14 GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc 0.79
15 PFD Premier Foods plc 0.77
16 BDEV Barratt Developments plc 0.71
17 TSCO Tesco plc 0.70
18 RDSB Royal Dutch Shell Plc B Shares 0.70
19 IMT Imperial Tobacco Group 0.68
20 BG. BG Group plc 0.68
Top 20 as % of total stocks traded 21.21

Morgan Stanley hikes up target price on Thomas Cook
08th February 2013, 14:27

Morgan Stanley has reaffirmed its ‘overweight’ rating on Thomas Cook Group [LON:TCG] believing the that company can enact its turnaround and deliver faster than previously expected.

The City broker has increased its target price by a massive 67% to 100 pence a share (from 60 pence) after the company announced a strong set of results yesterday.

“We increase our price target to 100 pence (200 pence bull case) due to better than expected results, the higher efficiency target, and greater confidence in the turnaround,” analyst Jamie Rollo said in a note to clients today.

“We still assume £300m recovery EBIT and £400m new equity (bull case £400m / £200m), and now assume a higher P/E of 9x proforma EPS.”

On Wednesday, prior to the company’s results announcement, the stock was hovering around the 70 pence mark and now the shares are changing hands for roughly 90 pence apiece.

Thomas Cook (LON:TCG) shares took off on Friday on the back of an upgrade from Oriel Securities.

Analyst Jeffrey Harwood now rates the tour operator a ‘buy’ on the back of yesterday’s first quarter results, which showed its losses narrowed to £70mln.

With the business being transformed by new management, led by chief executive Harriet Green, Harwood reckons the shares have the potential for further recovery.

“A full strategy review is to be outlined in spring 2013 and we expect this will include plans to dispose of certain non-core businesses, some of which are loss-making,” said the analyst.

everyone seems to have forgotten the imminent cash call that was apparently telegraphed

RESEARCH ALERT-Thomas Cook: Peel Hunt raises target price08 Feb 2013 - 10:37

Feb 8 (Reuters) - Thomas Cook Group PLC : * Peel Hunt raises target price to 91p from 41p; rating hold For a summary of rating actions and price target changes on European companies: Reuters Eikon users, click on [RCH/EUROPE] Reuters 3000Xtra users, double-click [RCH/EUROPE] Reuters Station users, click .1580 ((nyc.equities.newsroom@reuters.com); (Reuters Messaging: saqib.ahmed.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net) ((Bangalore Newsroom +91 80 4135 5800; within U.S. +1 646 223 8780))

What imminent cash call cynic ?

i'm sure this was heavily flagged a few weeks back ...... sticky (aka goldfinger) will almost certainly know

==============

extracted from DB's own post 312!!!

Debt, at £788m, is too high and it is expected Thomas Cook will have to raise £300m to £400m to ease its balance sheet.

What are you talking about cynic - copy of my post 321; Have you lost the plot?

doodlebug4- 11 Jan 2013 14:00 - 321 of 437

Heading quickly now for the next resistance point on the chart and the shorters diving for cover again. Morgan Stanley target of 60p beginning to look a bit conservative.

Ted Rogers?

Skinny and Cynic - both have totally lost the plot.

DB - i have banked a very nice profit and am more than happy to have done so, albeit that hindsight shows that i could have made much more ..... all i have done is highlight and extract from the article that you posted yourself - exactly 1 month ago

there is always a danger of getting carried away by euphoria .... we've all made that mistake and suffered the consequences

Sorry - I was alluding to 3-2-1.

I doubt a rights issue is coming any time soon and certainly not this side of a pound - so maybe a few months down the line, but probably longer.

cynic, perhaps you could post the extract from the article as I can't find it - thanks. Just curious, I'm not having a go at you! I agree with you about euphoria -been there and done it before. This is not about euphoria for me, it's about a recovery play that only happens occasionally when all the positives add up for various reasons. I may wait for another five or ten years before I see another chance like this one.

from post 325 -


Rights issue on the way?

Thomas Cook has gross adjusted debt of £3.5 billion, with £540 million of EBITDAR.

French is of the opinion that the group needs to raise between £150 million and £300 million of equity to strengthen the balance sheet, which would reduce the 2014 pro-forma earnings per share from 3.9p to 3p.

doodlebug, Cynic actually said post 312 (not 321) and he is correct! (though I assume he hasn't retrosectively changed his comment).

Hmmmm!