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Northern Rock (NRK)     

irlee57 - 13 Aug 2007 09:03

any comments, thoughts, on this stock.

hlyeo98 - 14 Sep 2007 12:21 - 43 of 1029

Bradford & Bingley on the list soon

mitzy - 14 Sep 2007 13:33 - 44 of 1029

No need to worry about pe's Annie thats in the past.

philj66 - 14 Sep 2007 14:57 - 45 of 1029

Webb site now innoperative to anyone with savings trying to access over net.

Falcothou - 14 Sep 2007 16:51 - 46 of 1029

A billion pounds worth of nrk traded today, interesting how it evolves next week, wonder if it will make the weekend papers!

driver - 14 Sep 2007 16:53 - 47 of 1029

Falcothou
Could be in the Sun.

partridge - 14 Sep 2007 18:48 - 48 of 1029

Interesting post Alan and full of common sense as usual. It irritates me to see on the news tonight (and I have no personal interest in NRK as either depositor or borrower) the Chief Exec bleating on about their solvency and being a well run bank, when in fact he should imo be resigning for gross negiligence in not being sure of funding other than on what appears to be a day to day basis. If NRK was not a major lender affecting the lives of many voters, but say an ordinary large manufacturing business, imo there would have been no Bank of England bale out and the receivers would probably have been in today.

aldwickk - 14 Sep 2007 20:57 - 49 of 1029

Down 30% today, is it worth a small punt now ?

halifax - 14 Sep 2007 22:05 - 50 of 1029

Possibly yes but wait to see the market reaction to the weekend media. NRK's funding strategy has proved to be totally vunerable to recent tightening in the money market. They increased their mortgage lending not by increasing their share of customer retail deposits but by taking the easy route by borrowing from the money market which as we know has at present dried up. Will they be able to maintain the dividend? Future forecast growth has flown out the window as fast as depositiors take their money out the door .It is after all about how confident you feel that the management know what they are doing.

supermum - 14 Sep 2007 22:32 - 51 of 1029

No its not a buy..
tonight from tomorrows torygraph.... 2bn taken out today alone... and customers only guaranteed up to 31,700 back.....
No doubt its depositors (of which there are rather too few) are covered by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme to the tune of 31,700 per person (100pc of the first 2,000 and 90pc of the next 33,000). If most of its mortgage assets are good (albeit unprofitable, given Northern Rock's funding costs), they will find willing buyers among the remaining viable mortgage lenders.

Northern Rock's shareholders would, of course, lose everything and the remaining creditors (including depositors with balances in excess of the deposit insurance limit) would have to wait to see how much the realisation of the assets generates.

hewittalan6 - 15 Sep 2007 07:34 - 52 of 1029

I agree it is not a buy, and a very bad business model.
but it is worth remembering that the emergency funding the BoE put in place has not been drawn down, and as long as savers do not entirely empty the coffers, never will be.
The money is available to meet the FSA liquidity requirements, not to hand out to mortgage borrowers, and providing NR make their mortgages unattractive for a while it will not be needed.
The answer for NR is to stop buying money from the market, and start offering attractive long term investments at fixed rates.
Traditional old fashioned banking (though I hate to sound like Mr Darling).
Or put another way, redress the imbalance between depositors and borrowers.
Alan

mitzy - 15 Sep 2007 10:07 - 53 of 1029

Just say No..!

hlyeo98 - 15 Sep 2007 18:56 - 54 of 1029

NRK is a disaster...very poor management...CEO Adam Applegarth should resign immediately.

mitzy - 15 Sep 2007 20:49 - 55 of 1029

Agree with you there hlyeo hes the one that got it wrong he should go...with a huge wad of course..

cynic - 15 Sep 2007 20:54 - 56 of 1029

but more interesting is to ponder whether or not NRK is now worth a punt with the predators clearly circling

Strawbs - 15 Sep 2007 22:04 - 57 of 1029

Tricky. Presumably any preditor will need a lot more cash than the cost of the takeover as the BOE is unlikely to offer any kind of safety net once the deal is done. They'd also need to rebrand pretty quickly as the name is rather tainted now with all the press coverage.

It'll be interesting though to see which banks still have plenty of cash in reserve, and more importantly if anyone decides not to bid after looking through the books.

In my opinion.....

Strawbs.

maestro - 15 Sep 2007 22:37 - 58 of 1029

anyone shorting Investec?...they bought Kensington group

hewittalan6 - 16 Sep 2007 09:51 - 59 of 1029

Interesting point cynic / strawbs.
I have no doubt the vultures have scented a carcas for picking off, but the wisdom of such a move may be questionable.
NR's problem is that it has the infrastructure and depositer representation of a provincial, but it is number 5 in the mortgaging stakes.
In effect, any buyer would be buying a large and unprofitable mortgage book at a time when mortgages look less than secure, but very little in the way of assets, other than shaky security.
It would rather depend on the buyers ability to leverage the existing client base into a broader range of product, instead of the usual round of cost cutting / savings / economies of scale route to profitability.
The other banks were unwilling to lend at LIBOR, so would they be wise to take the debt on at an average less than that, when the extras that come with it are vanishingly small by comparison?
If a bid comes, I think it would have to be very low to be economic to the bidder, and therefore unattractive to NRK holders.
Obviousley I cannot see the current books of NRK, so it is just musing on my part.
Alan

brianboru - 16 Sep 2007 11:18 - 60 of 1029

Possibly the other UK banks are taking advantage of the situation to knock a troublesome rival out?

At the moment it can't trade and is in effect worthless - without the continuing bailout by the taxpayer I would be surprised to see the shareholders get very little or even nothing at all.

Loans of 125% based on house prices which, outside of London and the SE, are falling? Would you buy it?

Falcothou - 16 Sep 2007 11:33 - 61 of 1029

Presumably if a bid occurred small shareholders would be last in the rumeneration stakes, depositors and institutions taking the lion's share

brianboru - 16 Sep 2007 11:37 - 62 of 1029

Bid - Unlikely apparently!

Robert Peston, is the BBC's business editor. This blog is his regular take on the business stories and issues that matter

"Rock can't be sold"
Robert Peston 16 Sep 07, 09:29 AM

For all the talk including by me (see my earlier comment, "Rock or Crock) about how Northern Rock must surely soon find itself under new ownership, I have learned that it cannot be taken over by another bank in the absence of a major policy shift by the Bank of England........
.......
............So here is the choice that may confront the Bank of England and the Chancellor of the Exchequer soon.

They could choose to continue along the path they have taken. This could see them injecting many many billions of pounds into Northern Rock for an indefinite period. They would in effect be choosing to enter the mortgage business and Northern Rock would almost be nationalised.

Over time, Northern Rock would probably wither as a business, to the detriment of its many employees.

Or the Bank and Chancellor could grit their teeth, swallow their pride and allow public funds to facilitate a takeover.

I cannot predict which way they will jump. When I interviewed the Chancellor Alistair Darling yesterday, he evinced great confidence in the actions of the Bank.

That said, in all the turmoil and uncertainty, Northern Rocks share price is probably still heading in a direction that will not amuse its shareholders.

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