Ben Bailey PLC (Housebuilder).
The Mail today said to buy Bellway as they looked very cheap. BBC is cheaper still and is constantly overlooked by analysts.
I am lucky enough to have been in this one for years, and as 2005 started, it hit 500pps. After interims that said it was affected by the slowdown in the market, and the general malaise in the housing market, it has plummeted by 30%. But is this overdone?
The basics make it look very cheap. Trading on a P/e ratio of 3.508 as compared to Bellways ratio of 6.279 it has a similar dividend yield (3.198%). Having read the investors reports it appears the market did overreact, as hidden behind the headline of being affected by the market slowdown was an increasingly large landbank and a move away from their traditional stock of 3 and 4 bed detatched homes and into semis and townhouses, to increase the margin on the land they own.
Further to this, they are specialists in brownfield development, which the government is known to favour and operate solely in the north of England, where the housing market has been less affected than elsewhere.
January sees the year end results posted, and with all the above taken into account, as well as the predicted housing crash not happening, I see a return to the higher sp levels of late 2004 / early 2005. Add into this a 15pps dividend and I see a winner, both short and long term.
Thoughts anyone?
Alan

Alan - Looks like a few people read have the AGM statement for KIE a day late. Quietly confident - but BBC may still get ahead on their trading update due in a couple of weeks.

I love a good natured race!!
Alan

oop's sorry Al wrong thread.

You know you're always welcome, Driver.
My home is your home, my food is your food, my wife is y..., sorry, got a bit carried away and emotional there.
Alan

Al
I know Im not a very good tipster, but take a look at cct read the thread well some of it anyway, cct the seller of this years top must have toy (THE DALEK) small M/Cap 25m sp 52p recovering from a high of 160p all time high 450p

Got one on my Xmas list, driver. Giving it the once over as we speak (or read, or whatever).
Just noticed the headlines in Saturdays Express are along the lines of "Crash, what crash? The housing market is off again".
Didn't read it fully, but that is the kind of news this sector needs. It won't do it any harm, anyway!!
Alan

Here she goes again.
Bang on time to mirror last 2 years charts.
Alan

Good call, I read your other posts and after my own research concurred and bought in yesterday morning.

Thanks

My pleasure UKR. Hope we're both right then!!
Alan

Ticking up nicely and looks if it is about to run again. At some point these might be taken over by one of the bigger boys. All the buys so far look smallish and are probably retail investors, with no sign yet of the big boys getting in yet. I will continue to hold mine hoping for 450p early in the new year. IMO, just north of 500p looks the ultimate top, except we get some takeover activity. H

Hi H.
Right at the begining I expected the high 400's by feb,
Seen nothing to change my mind, but will probably cash in, in feb anyway, regardless of price, just expecting the same as previous years.
Alan

Alan, nice move today with good news from the update. High 400's by Feb looks conservative at the moment given the prospect of increased number of plots next year and consolidation in the sector. Pity it isn't going ex-div early in the new year to scoop that up also. H

Well, back from some very crappy hols and delighted with the pre close statement and the move north on it. This co do have a habit of conservative interims followed by very good finals, and this keeps reflecting in the way the sp moves through the year.
If the increased land bank is financed by profit, I stay in regardless. If the increase is financed by higher gearing, then I still think divi day is a good time to get out and buy back in at a lower price through the late summer, but I will take a final view when i see the finals.
A fiver would be nice, H, as it would make this a ten bagger for me and those are few and far between, even if it has taken a good few years since my original buy. I have never sold a single share in these, and it will take absolute certainty of a fall for me to sell, as the divi is so good (30% of my original stake), but if the finals are in our favour and the sector consolidation does continue, then there is still another 20-30% in these by spring. heres hoping!!
Alan

Up another 10p today, on low volumes. Buys outstripped sells and closed on a session high.
Gotta be happy with that. It bodes well for the next couple of days, (I hope).
Alan

Been having another look at the historical charts.
Now I keep banging on about the graph apparantly repeating itself (a bit like me) but the 50 DMA rose above the 200 DMA (Golden cross?) on the first trading day of 2005. The exact same thing happened today! (Spooky, Eh?)
In 2005 the sp stayed above the 50 DMA for just over 3 months on a trend that saw a rise topping out at 20% between 01/01 and 01/03.
Right, putting my Mystic Meg hat on, I think the trend will be almost identical this year and the sp will top out on finals day, around 01/03/2006, at about 556p.
I stand to be shot down but the last two months have seen almost exactly the same trend in 2005 as we saw in 2004. Will it continue?
As always, IMO & DYOR
Alan

Al
Reading with interest, now you read my ert its only fare.

Im interested too and might get in 2morrow. Also tipped by shares mag last year followed by an initial big rise. Not in the tips this years but still a very positive write up on last years effort and expect the step foward this year. Could always be a target for a bigger fish too. looks good.

Alan, agree north of 500p is a reasonable expectation in the time frame you mention barring any bid. Do you find out how they increased their land bank, through debt? Early March will miss the divy but a good capital gain likely H

H,
Think it unlikely that they have increased their land bank through extra borrowing as BBC seem, by nature to be fairly cautious. Think it even more unlikely they would tell me if they had as they are now in their closed period (I think).
Alan

Yep. It boded well!
Up 7.5p without any trading. Hope it continues.
Alan