Thought I'd start a new thread as this is going to be a major talking point this year...have not made up my mind yet...(unlike bucksfizz)....but thinking of voting for an exit as Europe is not doing Britain any good at all it seems....

smart trading surely fred

I need a second beer fridge now.

now if it was for Budvar rather than that vile american chemical concoction, it would be worth having

When you are a student, it is quantity that prevails.

Are you still in Portugal? If so, what was the atmosphere like last night?

yup, still here until saturday ....... we intentionally avoided the football, but there's a great market square in the town where not only are there small food kiosks and a couple of restaurants (one is easily our fave here), but they also have loads of tables and chairs and television screens ...... it must have been totally rammed

I am tempted to volunteer to help May's campaign.

I know from Ken Clarke's campaign in 2005, that there is a lot going on in the background and has been since the day the candidates were announced.

There is a lot of lobbying of Conservative members. There are computer printouts with contact details of Conservative members. They are used to email and telephone asking for support. The process goes on from morning to the end of the evening. A lot of the people are Conservative Councillors. It takes a lot of phone calls just to get through to one person sometimes.

The success of the candidates depends on how good this backroom activity is. At the start of the 2005 leadership election, Ken Clarke was the runaway leader. He was also the favourite of the party members. As he was such a fan of Europe, he was stitched up by Eurosceptics voting for Fox to stop him getting on the final ballot. The same may happen this time with Andrea because the majority of Conservative MPs are remainers..

Yes, go ahead and support Theresa, Hays. I hope you have the same success with her as you had with ol' Clarke and she is stitched up by Eurosceptics once again.

May won't get stitched up. The party has changed. The majority of the party are now remainers. The Eurosceptics have less power now.

The Nu Tory party are going the way of Nu Labour, almost total disconnect between MP's and the ordinary party members.

A new poll by Survation on behalf of the Constitutional Research Council tells you why people were calling Theresa May “Prime Minister” last night at the Spectator’s summer party. A poll of the general public has May as the only one with a significant positive favourability rating – Boris would have been the other.

If i remember rightly Hays you panicked when the Luvvies showed support for Remain , you said everyone will follow them , then you lost it saying house prices would fall and people would be in negative equity and they would vote remain . You worked on Ken Clarkes failed attempt at leader , not really infallible are you .

certainly the property market has come to a complete standstill and a fall (say 5/15%) must surely be on the cards if a sale is to be completed

The commercial property market has already fallen, with three major funds suspended. We are likely to have a recession at the end of this year. Prices for foreign gods already on the rise; I had an email this morning from a company warning that once current stocks run out prices will be rising due to imports from France. Pounds at a 31 year low. Looks pretty bad to me.

No news of exports Haystack?

Foreign gods eh , i'm just winding you up .I know you are never wrong .

I think things will be fine longer term, but I expect the UK to have serious problems shorter term. Overall I am happy to be out of the EU. Public perception may change if we go into a recession and unemployment rises. Then you could expect increasing calls for us to stay in the EU. The public are generally pretty fickle and above all stupid.

TORY LEADERSHIP

last two

Theresa v Andrea

Michael ( the backstabber ) got his "comeuppance "

And he is such a likeable fellow.

I have a suspicion of what may happen over the next year.

Imagine a recession about the end of this year. We haven't activated Article 50 yet. Unemployment is rising, the pound drops further, the stock market falls, home prices fall (there is already a downturn in numbers of house sales now). Opinions polls show a clear majority for staying in the EU, maybe 60/40

The government speaks to the EU. It announces that due to economic conditions, Article 50 will not be activated for the foreseeable future. Opinion polls how strong support for government stance.

There is some movement towards UKIP, but it is mainly Labour voters as it was the poorest areas that voted Leave. After a couple of years a new referendum is held giving 62/38 in favour of Remain.