Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

Morgan Stanley hikes up target price on Thomas Cook
08th February 2013, 14:27

Morgan Stanley has reaffirmed its ‘overweight’ rating on Thomas Cook Group [LON:TCG] believing the that company can enact its turnaround and deliver faster than previously expected.

The City broker has increased its target price by a massive 67% to 100 pence a share (from 60 pence) after the company announced a strong set of results yesterday.

“We increase our price target to 100 pence (200 pence bull case) due to better than expected results, the higher efficiency target, and greater confidence in the turnaround,” analyst Jamie Rollo said in a note to clients today.

“We still assume £300m recovery EBIT and £400m new equity (bull case £400m / £200m), and now assume a higher P/E of 9x proforma EPS.”

On Wednesday, prior to the company’s results announcement, the stock was hovering around the 70 pence mark and now the shares are changing hands for roughly 90 pence apiece.

Thomas Cook (LON:TCG) shares took off on Friday on the back of an upgrade from Oriel Securities.

Analyst Jeffrey Harwood now rates the tour operator a ‘buy’ on the back of yesterday’s first quarter results, which showed its losses narrowed to £70mln.

With the business being transformed by new management, led by chief executive Harriet Green, Harwood reckons the shares have the potential for further recovery.

“A full strategy review is to be outlined in spring 2013 and we expect this will include plans to dispose of certain non-core businesses, some of which are loss-making,” said the analyst.

everyone seems to have forgotten the imminent cash call that was apparently telegraphed

RESEARCH ALERT-Thomas Cook: Peel Hunt raises target price08 Feb 2013 - 10:37

Feb 8 (Reuters) - Thomas Cook Group PLC : * Peel Hunt raises target price to 91p from 41p; rating hold For a summary of rating actions and price target changes on European companies: Reuters Eikon users, click on [RCH/EUROPE] Reuters 3000Xtra users, double-click [RCH/EUROPE] Reuters Station users, click .1580 ((nyc.equities.newsroom@reuters.com); (Reuters Messaging: saqib.ahmed.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net) ((Bangalore Newsroom +91 80 4135 5800; within U.S. +1 646 223 8780))

What imminent cash call cynic ?

i'm sure this was heavily flagged a few weeks back ...... sticky (aka goldfinger) will almost certainly know

==============

extracted from DB's own post 312!!!

Debt, at £788m, is too high and it is expected Thomas Cook will have to raise £300m to £400m to ease its balance sheet.

What are you talking about cynic - copy of my post 321; Have you lost the plot?

doodlebug4- 11 Jan 2013 14:00 - 321 of 437

Heading quickly now for the next resistance point on the chart and the shorters diving for cover again. Morgan Stanley target of 60p beginning to look a bit conservative.

Ted Rogers?

Skinny and Cynic - both have totally lost the plot.

DB - i have banked a very nice profit and am more than happy to have done so, albeit that hindsight shows that i could have made much more ..... all i have done is highlight and extract from the article that you posted yourself - exactly 1 month ago

there is always a danger of getting carried away by euphoria .... we've all made that mistake and suffered the consequences

Sorry - I was alluding to 3-2-1.

I doubt a rights issue is coming any time soon and certainly not this side of a pound - so maybe a few months down the line, but probably longer.

cynic, perhaps you could post the extract from the article as I can't find it - thanks. Just curious, I'm not having a go at you! I agree with you about euphoria -been there and done it before. This is not about euphoria for me, it's about a recovery play that only happens occasionally when all the positives add up for various reasons. I may wait for another five or ten years before I see another chance like this one.

from post 325 -


Rights issue on the way?

Thomas Cook has gross adjusted debt of £3.5 billion, with £540 million of EBITDAR.

French is of the opinion that the group needs to raise between £150 million and £300 million of equity to strengthen the balance sheet, which would reduce the 2014 pro-forma earnings per share from 3.9p to 3p.

doodlebug, Cynic actually said post 312 (not 321) and he is correct! (though I assume he hasn't retrosectively changed his comment).

Hmmmm!

do i look like a politician? :-)

I was rather scathing of that particular article if I remember. There was no mention of a rights issue in the IMS on Thursday and it had gone very quiet about that until some shorting idiot on another bulletin board posted a totally unfounded rumour on Friday afternoon!

it's no great matter, but i'm sure there was another analyst who also reckoned a cash call was an inevitable requirement ..... that apart, and no doubt i shall be proved wrong, i think the share has gone too far too fast .... at the every least, the risk/reward ratio is surely now tilted heavily towards the former

I agree the share has gone too fast, I much prefer shares that just tick up quietly each week instead of white knuckle rides, but I can't see this pulling back significantly now that it's on a roll. There's another trading statement due in the Spring and I can't see that being any less positive than the IMS on Thursday. Harriet seems to have the bit between her teeth - and that comment has nothing to do with horses or beefburgers.

I see Darshini Shah questioned selling Tui as well And they seen far from heading South. Well done to all holders here.

Ps perhaps he needs a holiday. :-))