This sums up much of my thinking - I hold a few and swing trade a few and even trade intraday sometimes ......

I think there is a lot of slack that management can cut out of the costs and would also anticipate sector consolidation ..... good value currently and have been holding their own in a falling market. Lot of US interest.

ains


Edited by Dominic White
(Filed: 08/02/2003)


Texting makes MmO2 sexy but it's also risky

More and more Britons are discovering the joys of textual intercourse. In the month of December, we fired off more than 50m mobile messages a day, and next Friday (that's Valentine's Day, folks, in case you'd forgotten) we'll send considerably more than that.



It emerged this week that the chief beneficiary of this craze is MmO2 . BT's former mobile phone division revealed that it gets a higher proportion of revenues from texting than any of the other three operators.

Revenue from messaging grew at its fastest rate ever in the last quarter, up 19pc, and data services as a proportion of MmO2 's revenue rose to 17.7pc from 15.6pc.

More good news was the rise in MmO2 's average revenues per customer. ARPUs, as nerdy analysts like to dub them, grew by 5pc to 243 in the UK and by 9pc in Germany to 212.

MmO2 now has 19.1m subscribers and in Britain it may be the smallest player, with 11.9m users, but it is growing faster than its rivals - testament to the success of its rebranding from BT Cellnet.

Only 114,000 of its 503,000 new UK subscribers were higher-spending contract customers, but MmO2 claims its pre-pay customers have started spending more than before.

Customer growth in Germany, which continues to be dominated by T-Mobile and Vodafone, is less impressive and the MmO2 share price ascribes little or no value to this part of the business.

That seems unfair, given the fact that the group has attracted higher-spending customers and has made a decent fist of turning the operation around. An eventual sale or merger is almost as inevitable as a disposal of the Dutch unit, which is losing customers.

MmO2 's larger rival Vodafone is trading on a free cashflow yield of 6pc, while at 49p this week, MmO2 's equivalent valuation remains negative. It might not have Vodafone's scale or profitability but there is room for upside. A risky buy.

L2? Alot of selling pressure still persists. As always I get in @ the wrong price.

I thought you were going to wait ? .... what price did you pay?



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (46.15%) 12 (46.40%) 1,894,310 55.01 - 55.91 2,187,923 (53.60%) 14 (53.85%)
5% (48.48%) 16 (41.57%) 2,020,034 54.98 - 56.06 2,838,947 (58.43%) 17 (51.52%)
10% (50.94%) 27 (34.87%) 2,362,645 54.74 - 56.47 4,413,794 (65.13%) 26 (49.06%)
15% (46.97%) 31 (43.22%) 3,469,612 53.75 - 56.57 4,558,014 (56.78%) 35 (53.03%)
50% (44.93%) 31 (38.64%) 3,469,612 53.75 - 57.48 5,509,981 (61.36%) 38 (55.07%)
100% (44.74%) 34 (38.45%) 3,489,732 53.64 - 57.58 5,585,673 (61.55%) 42 (55.26%)
all (44.16%) 34 (38.44%) 3,489,732 53.64 - 57.65 5,589,673 (61.56%) 43 (55.84%)

0-1% (46.15%) 12 (46.40%) 1,894,310 55.01 - 55.91 2,187,923 (53.60%) 14 (53.85%)
1-5% (57.14%) 4 (16.19%) 125,724 54.98 - 56.06 651,024 (83.81%) 3 (42.86%)
5-10% (55.00%) 11 (17.87%) 342,611 54.74 - 56.47 1,574,847 (82.13%) 9 (45.00%)
10-15% (30.77%) 4 (88.47%) 1,106,967 53.75 - 56.57 144,220 (11.53%) 9 (69.23%)
15-50% (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 53.75 - 57.48 951,967 (100.00%) 3 (100.00%)
50-100% (42.86%) 3 (21.00%) 20,120 53.64 - 57.58 75,692 (79.00%) 4 (57.14%)
100%- (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 53.64 - 57.65 4,000 (100.00%) 1 (100.00%)

sub 56. I really need this to take off Wed am & cannot understand weakness unless we've underestimated effect of the 3G writedowns. I wanted to buy when you did! :(

What's L2 showing now. If I'd waited could've got it 0.75pts cheaper. Cannot afford sell off tommorrow as I feel very uncomfortable with the 3G writedown news.

How come you didnt wait then lol


might have come off the bottom but difficult to tell at this moment






Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (58.62%) 17 (56.33%) 2,750,352 55.05 - 55.67 2,132,278 (43.67%) 12 (41.38%)
5% (59.46%) 22 (52.71%) 3,126,076 54.98 - 55.84 2,804,654 (47.29%) 15 (40.54%)
10% (58.62%) 34 (43.48%) 3,471,187 54.82 - 56.34 4,511,801 (56.52%) 24 (41.38%)
15% (52.78%) 38 (49.48%) 4,578,154 54.05 - 56.45 4,673,721 (50.52%) 34 (47.22%)
50% (50.67%) 38 (44.87%) 4,578,154 54.05 - 57.36 5,625,688 (55.13%) 37 (49.33%)
100% (50.00%) 41 (44.64%) 4,598,274 53.97 - 57.46 5,701,380 (55.36%) 41 (50.00%)
all (49.40%) 41 (44.63%) 4,598,274 53.97 - 57.52 5,705,380 (55.37%) 42 (50.60%)

0-1% (58.62%) 17 (56.33%) 2,750,352 55.05 - 55.67 2,132,278 (43.67%) 12 (41.38%)
1-5% (62.50%) 5 (35.85%) 375,724 54.98 - 55.84 672,376 (64.15%) 3 (37.50%)
5-10% (57.14%) 12 (16.82%) 345,111 54.82 - 56.34 1,707,147 (83.18%) 9 (42.86%)
10-15% (28.57%) 4 (87.24%) 1,106,967 54.05 - 56.45 161,920 (12.76%) 10 (71.43%)
15-50% (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 54.05 - 57.36 951,967 (100.00%) 3 (100.00%)
50-100% (42.86%) 3 (21.00%) 20,120 53.97 - 57.46 75,692 (79.00%) 4 (57.14%)
100%- (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 53.97 - 57.52 4,000 (100.00%) 1 (100.00%)

new note from nomura - expects figures to be better than market expectations and write downs will be ignored as expected

What price are you going to get in at then and will it be today. Are results out @7am. What's L2 looking like now after US has opened +ve and S&P near 925 now.

Waiting on possible mini dip right now and yes its probable it will be today ... results will be pre market




Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (54.84%) 17 (52.47%) 2,730,463 55.03 - 55.64 2,473,634 (47.53%) 14 (45.16%)
5% (57.89%) 22 (51.36%) 3,106,187 54.97 - 55.76 2,941,336 (48.64%) 16 (42.11%)
10% (58.62%) 34 (43.41%) 3,451,298 54.81 - 56.26 4,498,483 (56.59%) 24 (41.38%)
15% (52.78%) 38 (49.45%) 4,558,265 54.03 - 56.37 4,660,403 (50.55%) 34 (47.22%)
50% (50.67%) 38 (44.82%) 4,558,265 54.03 - 57.30 5,612,370 (55.18%) 37 (49.33%)
100% (50.00%) 41 (44.60%) 4,578,385 53.95 - 57.40 5,688,062 (55.40%) 41 (50.00%)
all (49.40%) 41 (44.58%) 4,578,385 53.95 - 57.46 5,692,062 (55.42%) 42 (50.60%)

0-1% (54.84%) 17 (52.47%) 2,730,463 55.03 - 55.64 2,473,634 (47.53%) 14 (45.16%)
1-5% (71.43%) 5 (44.55%) 375,724 54.97 - 55.76 467,702 (55.45%) 2 (28.57%)
5-10% (60.00%) 12 (18.14%) 345,111 54.81 - 56.26 1,557,147 (81.86%) 8 (40.00%)
10-15% (28.57%) 4 (87.24%) 1,106,967 54.03 - 56.37 161,920 (12.76%) 10 (71.43%)
15-50% (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 54.03 - 57.30 951,967 (100.00%) 3 (100.00%)
50-100% (42.86%) 3 (21.00%) 20,120 53.95 - 57.40 75,692 (79.00%) 4 (57.14%)
100%- (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 53.95 - 57.46 4,000 (100.00%) 1 (100.00%)

Is your chart still looking for further dip. What's L2 like now? Too many sellers.

Volumes are relatively low and not a sell off ..... just a lack of enough buyers. Peeps do'nt want to take the chance and cashing profits. Price has steadied and waiting on direction - as I am




Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (47.22%) 17 (35.28%) 1,712,122 54.89 - 55.45 3,141,014 (64.72%) 19 (52.78%)
5% (47.62%) 20 (33.75%) 1,825,582 54.84 - 55.52 3,582,762 (66.25%) 22 (52.38%)
10% (50.00%) 30 (27.70%) 2,088,733 54.62 - 56.05 5,453,033 (72.30%) 30 (50.00%)
15% (45.33%) 34 (36.20%) 3,195,700 53.58 - 56.16 5,632,853 (63.80%) 41 (54.67%)
50% (43.59%) 34 (32.67%) 3,195,700 53.58 - 56.97 6,584,820 (67.33%) 44 (56.41%)
100% (43.53%) 37 (32.56%) 3,215,820 53.47 - 57.07 6,660,512 (67.44%) 48 (56.47%)
all (43.02%) 37 (32.55%) 3,215,820 53.47 - 57.12 6,664,512 (67.45%) 49 (56.98%)

0-1% (47.22%) 17 (35.28%) 1,712,122 54.89 - 55.45 3,141,014 (64.72%) 19 (52.78%)
1-5% (50.00%) 3 (20.44%) 113,460 54.84 - 55.52 441,748 (79.56%) 3 (50.00%)
5-10% (55.56%) 10 (12.33%) 263,151 54.62 - 56.05 1,870,271 (87.67%) 8 (44.44%)
10-15% (26.67%) 4 (86.03%) 1,106,967 53.58 - 56.16 179,820 (13.97%) 11 (73.33%)
15-50% (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 53.58 - 56.97 951,967 (100.00%) 3 (100.00%)
50-100% (42.86%) 3 (21.00%) 20,120 53.47 - 57.07 75,692 (79.00%) 4 (57.14%)
100%- (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 53.47 - 57.12 4,000 (100.00%) 1 (100.00%)

Is your chart still looking for further dip. What's L2 like now? Weak Buy orders.

still the same - waiting on direction .... time to jump soon





Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (60.53%) 23 (58.46%) 4,216,779 54.96 - 55.50 2,996,043 (41.54%) 15 (39.47%)
5% (57.78%) 26 (55.13%) 4,344,576 54.94 - 55.59 3,535,352 (44.87%) 19 (42.22%)
10% (57.81%) 37 (47.82%) 4,628,127 54.82 - 56.04 5,050,690 (52.18%) 27 (42.19%)
15% (51.90%) 41 (52.30%) 5,735,094 54.20 - 56.16 5,230,510 (47.70%) 38 (48.10%)
50% (50.00%) 41 (48.12%) 5,735,094 54.20 - 57.03 6,182,477 (51.88%) 41 (50.00%)
100% (49.44%) 44 (47.91%) 5,755,214 54.14 - 57.12 6,258,169 (52.09%) 45 (50.56%)
all (48.89%) 44 (47.89%) 5,755,214 54.14 - 57.18 6,262,169 (52.11%) 46 (51.11%)

0-1% (60.53%) 23 (58.46%) 4,216,779 54.96 - 55.50 2,996,043 (41.54%) 15 (39.47%)
1-5% (42.86%) 3 (19.16%) 127,797 54.94 - 55.59 539,309 (80.84%) 4 (57.14%)
5-10% (57.89%) 11 (15.76%) 283,551 54.82 - 56.04 1,515,338 (84.24%) 8 (42.11%)
10-15% (26.67%) 4 (86.03%) 1,106,967 54.20 - 56.16 179,820 (13.97%) 11 (73.33%)
15-50% (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 54.20 - 57.03 951,967 (100.00%) 3 (100.00%)
50-100% (42.86%) 3 (21.00%) 20,120 54.14 - 57.12 75,692 (79.00%) 4 (57.14%)
100%- (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 54.14 - 57.18 4,000 (100.00%) 1 (100.00%)

Have you jumped yet or have decided not to? Vols strong with Big after close BUYS.

Yes I did ..... for about 2/3rds of what i sold ..... not long to wait :-))


ains

Well done and best of luck for both of us. What's the strategy for Wed & remember to inform me of disposal ASAP. Hoping for early am rise to be maintained. Would you offload the amount bought today in early morning or wait for US to open etc.

Looks good to me but early media comment focuses on the write downs ...



Released: 21 May 2003

- Improved operating performance across the Group delivered:

11% growth in customer base, to 19.4 million;
14% total revenue growth, to 4,874 million;
18% service revenue growth, to 4,327 million;
EBITDA before exceptionals almost doubled, to 859 million;
Operating loss before exceptionals and goodwill reduced to (104)
million;

- Exceptional charges of (9,664) million gave rise to a reported loss
before tax of (10,203) million;

- Net debt was reduced by 68 million, to 549 million.

David Varney, Chairman of mmO2 plc, commented:

'In these year-end results, the size of the exceptional charges we have taken
has masked the strong underlying performance delivered in our first full year as
an independent company. However this impairment enables us to go forward with a
balance sheet that reflects realistic assumptions about the potential of our
business to grow, and to deliver attractive returns for shareholders.

'Looking ahead, following the disposal of our sub-scale business in the
Netherlands, we will build on the momentum created since the demerger in our
continuing operations. We will maintain our focus on delivering growth, and
improving the operational and financial performance of all our businesses
without, as we have stated previously, ruling out any other potential
opportunities to deliver enhanced shareholder value.'


Year ended Year ended
31 March 31 March
2003 2002
m m
Turnover 4,874 4,276
EBITDA before exceptional items 859 433
Operating loss before goodwill and exceptional items (104) (337)
Exceptional items (9,664) (150)
Loss on ordinary activities before taxation (10,203) (873)
Year-end net debt 549 617


Peter Erskine, Chief Executive of mmO2 plc, commented:

'In mmO2's first full year as an independent company, it was vital for us to
deliver on the commitments made at the time of the demerger; these results
demonstrate this was achieved, with the Group delivering strong growth and
performance improvement.

'We launched the O2 brand, and across the Group it has achieved awareness and
appeal well ahead of expectations. We successfully restructured our businesses
in the UK and Germany, making them more efficient and getting them closer to
their customers. We implemented a lower cost 3G strategy in Germany that will
allow us to compete on equal terms with the market leaders. We acquired a 3G
licence in Ireland. We maintained our strong position in mobile data, leading
in the fast-growing UK text market, and launching a stream of innovative data
products. All these factors contributed to the growth, and improvement in
performance, that we are determined to sustain going forward'.


PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS (comparative period: 12 months to 31 March 2002)

Group

Total customer base grew by 11% to 19.372 million
Total revenue grew by 14% to 4,874 million
Service revenue grew by 18%, to 4,327 million
EBITDA before exceptionals increased to 859 million (2002 : 433
million)
Capital expenditure reduced to 944 million (2002 : 1,142 million)
Net debt at 31 March was 549 million (31 March 2002 : 617 million)
Data as proportion of service revenue grew to 17.3% (2002 : 11.7%)
Total number of SMS messages sent grew by 60% to 8.5 billion

Premarket - still very undecided





Mobile messaging revenues to double by 2007

London, May 20 2003, (netimperative)



by Susie Harwood

Global revenues from mobile messaging are set to double to $70bn by 2007, with $25bn coming from Western Europe alone, according to a new report published by industry group Analysys.


This will be driven by further growth of SMS text messaging in new market segments and new applications, as well as the take-up of advanced messaging services such as MMS and mobile instant messaging, the report said.

In terms of total messaging volumes, Analysys predicts that this will quadruple over the next few years, from 670bn in 2002 to 2600bn in 2007. It believes that 607bn of these messages will originate in Western Europe, compared with 131bn last year.

Messaging services are particularly attractive to network operators, as they can achieve substantially higher revenue per Mb and profitability per user that voice telephony. Analysys said that based on average pricing, one minute of voice telephony generates less than $1 per Mb of network resource consumed, compared with over $1,000 per Mb for an SMS message.

Operators should not overlook simple text messaging such as SMS, according to the report, as there are still ample opportunities to increase usage and revenue by targeting new users and providing new content and services.

However, at the same time, Analysys said it is critical for operators to stimulate growth of new messaging services, such as MMS, which are being held back by high prices, lack of interworking and lack of critical mass of users. It believes that network operators should follow Japan's lead by setting affordable prices and packaging MMS with a range of services, as attempted with Vodafone Live!

L2? Yes, remember to let me know when is the right time to dispose today or Thu :)

We are up which is good ... waiting on broker coment


Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (44.44%) 8 (30.46%) 2,658,953 56.26 - 57.05 6,069,799 (69.54%) 10 (55.56%)
5% (43.48%) 10 (35.50%) 3,408,953 56.14 - 57.06 6,193,299 (64.50%) 13 (56.52%)
10% (38.64%) 17 (38.13%) 4,181,748 55.93 - 57.22 6,785,519 (61.87%) 27 (61.36%)
15% (43.10%) 25 (40.65%) 5,321,335 55.20 - 57.84 7,768,006 (59.35%) 33 (56.90%)
50% (41.54%) 27 (41.18%) 5,526,335 55.01 - 57.95 7,893,698 (58.82%) 38 (58.46%)
100% (44.93%) 31 (41.29%) 5,551,355 54.93 - 57.95 7,893,698 (58.71%) 38 (55.07%)
all (44.29%) 31 (41.28%) 5,551,355 54.93 - 57.99 7,897,698 (58.72%) 39 (55.71%)

L2 not looking strong. Can you provide for VOD also. Many more sellers have surfaced now, not sure if I should've disposed as UK mkt -0.6% is weakening now.