Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).

Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.

cheers GF.

Now lets get hays selective polls into context, heres the polls out yesterday........


UK polls:

Populus: LAB 37%, CON 34%, UKIP 12%, LD 9%

ICM: CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 12%, UKIP 9%

YouGov: LAB 38%, CON 35%, UKIP 10%, LD 8%

the Guardian ICM is obviously a rouge poll as it gave Labour a easy lead last week.

Shortie itd be even cheaper if they were specialists in the department they cover, then we wouldnt have to pay the hangers on.

GF do you really believe that your polls are anything more than an elaborate distraction... If not then surely you must understand the differences between the four parties being polled..

Theirs ONE BIG THING about this so called recovery that worries me, why havent the Banks and Miners performed?????????.

Usualy a yardstick for economic recovery, or is it again a recovery built on Credit.

Shortie the polls arent mine, I believe the polls as Hays says are showing the trend and the trend is showing labour to have an out right majority victory at the GE.

And yes I understand the difference between a party who is hell bent on Privatisation and a party who takes on board responsible capitalism.

In fact the exact figure is 54 seats for a labour majority after yesterdays polls.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

gf
The polls above have one thing in common. They all show UKIP falling to 9%, 10% and 12%. That's about half the level needed for one MP. As the election approaches, UKIP will implode.

Not bothered about UKIP but you should as a Tory. These figures as you put it are falling but its not affecting labour.

What YOU should be worried about is todays increase in inflation and just how far off interest rate rises are. The housing market is at boiling point, these measures Carney as put in place are not working.

Hazy One,

In the present case of Cameron and crew the "Blind overseeing the Blind".

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Shortie,

Bet you are glad to get that off your chest.

8-)

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I have to admit, although I enjoy mocking the present incumbents of No 10 and cohorts who in comparison to previous administration appear incompetent I wouldn't like their briefs and accept grudgingly that some are "bright".

(But rank IDS and one of the most stupid ministers of recent time. Bluster, and more bluster.)

The only problems I really have is that they are not building for the future and rather than the thinking of the good for all of society are more inclined to try to protect their own political arses.

They are reactive not really proactive.

============

But in that they are so open to ridicule, I will help them along.

Hays hays Hays....daily Politics, ........sacked Tories are seething and out for a fight.

Does that mean both sides huffing and puffing!

Does anybody know the average unit house price of TW. new buys?

In and outside London preferably with numbers?

Housing market is cooling.

LOL not so, the meeting is still going on this speaks volumes.........

11.20 Carney: UK housing market is biggest threat to recovery in the medium-term
Onto housing...and Mark Carney says that the UK housing market is the biggest risk to the durability of the recovery in the medium term.

The Bank's fear is that lenders become too reckless -- granting loans that are too risky, leading to too much indebtedness.

Carney explains that British people have a great record of repaying their mortgages, however deep their financial problems. That means they slash spending on everything else, hurting the wider economy.

His colleagues also weighed in:

BANK OF ENGLAND FPC'S TAYLOR - NOT SUSTAINABLE FOR HOUSE PRICES TO RISE FASTER THAN WAGES INDEFINITELY, BUT CAN CONTINUE FOR QUITE A LONG TIME
BANK OF ENGLAND FPC'S KOHN - FPC CANNOT REALLY ADDRESS RELENTLESS UPWARD PRESSURE ON HOUSE PRICES

Carney explains that British people have a great record of repaying their mortgages, however deep their financial problems. That means they slash spending on everything else, hurting the wider economy.

Recovery!!

Or just about averted Financial Oblivion for now?

Just listened to EU "debate".

Farage and cohorts in Europe remind me of tub-thumpers and pub room brawlers.

Only Farage stirs it and then disappears before the law arrives.

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Where does Daniel Hannan get his finances from?

categorically the housing market is now much quieter than it was, though there is still good life in it
This is partly the usual summer lull, and also some uncertainty as to what the new mortgage rules are and how hard they will be applied

how much effect a rate rise (it'll only be 0.25% as/when it happens) will have is hard to gauge, but probably not a great deal

Stop being silly 0.25% increase is a life threatner to most of these who have over borrowed in fact been encouraged to over borrow by this government.

It wont just be the housing market that is threatned but the whole economy as Carney states above.

And that 0.25% is just the beginning.

Another IDS balls up......

Bedroom Tax DWP report – immediate comments eg arrears up £140m

Uncategorized July 15, 2014 1 Comment

The DWP has finally released the first interim report into the bedroom tax today – 163 pages of mostly waffle on first reading but some really interesting issues emerge.

P17 for example has this:

Paying the shortfall
Landlords reported that, five months into the RSRS, 41 per cent of tenants have paid the full RSRS shortfall, 39 per cent have paid some and 20 per cent have paid none.

Let’s do a quick extrapolation and a more up to date one than this report. The bedroom tax has 471,000 affected households at an average of £14.40 per week cut in their Housing Benefit at February 2014 and this is a falling number from the 542,000 first reported. This means the total bedroom tax cut for the first year will be between £360m – £390m and here I use the lower £360m cut.

If 20% of tenants have not paid that means landlord arrears have increased by £72m
If the 39% who have paid some average 50% of the bedroom tax being paid than that is a further £70m of arrears landlords now have.
Combine the two and we see the bedroom tax has increased social landlord arrears by £140m

That is a good ballpark estimate although there are so many variables which can adjust that by as much as 20% either way giving a range of £112m – £168m. The decreasing number of affected households could reduce it although I use the 471,000 number of households which the lowest figure yet and is 190,000 or 28% fewer households than the DWP expected in their estimate the bedroom tax would affect 660,000 households. The longer the bedroom tax goes on the more tenants that wont be able to pay could increase landlord losses which will of course be added to by their possession costs which can average about £7,000 per property.

The DWP interim report is as vague and woolly as you would expect on this point (and every other point) and frankly the report is 163 pages of turgid indecisive nonsense and anyone expecting some revelatory insights will be seriously disappointed.

Arrears
Total arrears (for all reasons) held by social landlords increased by 16 per cent between April and October, although it must be emphasised that the cause of this is uncertain and we cannot directly attribute this increase to the RSRS. Landlords state that they will eventually evict RSRS-affected non-payers, though at the time of the research most were currently only in the early stages of this process. Many landlords expressed concern that
collecting rent from people who can’t afford to pay whilst in their current circumstances is damaging relations between landlords and tenants.

The above also on page 17 explains exactly what I mean. Arrears have risen but this is not due to bedroom tax! No we can’t possibly say that! So what is it down to then? Do you offer any explanation for this? Er…no! Ah I see so this is a whitewash then? You may say that I couldn’t possibly comment…blah blah blah!

Then we have the one genuine insight that the bedroom tax is damaging the landlord:tenant relationship. Yet this (a) comes from landlords, (b) is not commented upon at all and (c) is massively understated. Tenants no longer trust their social landlord and this is a huge matter with future planned reforms such as direct payment of HB to the tenant scaring the life out of social landlords and rightly so.

This report is as much of a charade and sham as the bedroom tax decision making process an the next report is due AFTER the next election. How convenient eh reader?

I do leave you with some mild amusement and look at page 13 for a real FREUDIAN slip and I wonder how long it will be before social landlords state there will be no effin funders?



There is no F in funders lending to social landlords eh DWP?


If I haven’t dissuaded you from reading this whitewash of a report you can enjoy it here though please make sure no sharp implements are near and you are sitting comfortably. And just to be on the safe side make sure the smelling salts are handy so when you fall over in shock at just how inept, wish-washy, incompetent and frankly offensive this report is… You have been warned!

Good to see IDS keeping his job as he is doing a great job.