This sums up much of my thinking - I hold a few and swing trade a few and even trade intraday sometimes ......

I think there is a lot of slack that management can cut out of the costs and would also anticipate sector consolidation ..... good value currently and have been holding their own in a falling market. Lot of US interest.

ains


Edited by Dominic White
(Filed: 08/02/2003)


Texting makes MmO2 sexy but it's also risky

More and more Britons are discovering the joys of textual intercourse. In the month of December, we fired off more than 50m mobile messages a day, and next Friday (that's Valentine's Day, folks, in case you'd forgotten) we'll send considerably more than that.



It emerged this week that the chief beneficiary of this craze is MmO2 . BT's former mobile phone division revealed that it gets a higher proportion of revenues from texting than any of the other three operators.

Revenue from messaging grew at its fastest rate ever in the last quarter, up 19pc, and data services as a proportion of MmO2 's revenue rose to 17.7pc from 15.6pc.

More good news was the rise in MmO2 's average revenues per customer. ARPUs, as nerdy analysts like to dub them, grew by 5pc to 243 in the UK and by 9pc in Germany to 212.

MmO2 now has 19.1m subscribers and in Britain it may be the smallest player, with 11.9m users, but it is growing faster than its rivals - testament to the success of its rebranding from BT Cellnet.

Only 114,000 of its 503,000 new UK subscribers were higher-spending contract customers, but MmO2 claims its pre-pay customers have started spending more than before.

Customer growth in Germany, which continues to be dominated by T-Mobile and Vodafone, is less impressive and the MmO2 share price ascribes little or no value to this part of the business.

That seems unfair, given the fact that the group has attracted higher-spending customers and has made a decent fist of turning the operation around. An eventual sale or merger is almost as inevitable as a disposal of the Dutch unit, which is losing customers.

MmO2 's larger rival Vodafone is trading on a free cashflow yield of 6pc, while at 49p this week, MmO2 's equivalent valuation remains negative. It might not have Vodafone's scale or profitability but there is room for upside. A risky buy.

Is your chart still looking for further dip. What's L2 like now? Weak Buy orders.

still the same - waiting on direction .... time to jump soon





Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (60.53%) 23 (58.46%) 4,216,779 54.96 - 55.50 2,996,043 (41.54%) 15 (39.47%)
5% (57.78%) 26 (55.13%) 4,344,576 54.94 - 55.59 3,535,352 (44.87%) 19 (42.22%)
10% (57.81%) 37 (47.82%) 4,628,127 54.82 - 56.04 5,050,690 (52.18%) 27 (42.19%)
15% (51.90%) 41 (52.30%) 5,735,094 54.20 - 56.16 5,230,510 (47.70%) 38 (48.10%)
50% (50.00%) 41 (48.12%) 5,735,094 54.20 - 57.03 6,182,477 (51.88%) 41 (50.00%)
100% (49.44%) 44 (47.91%) 5,755,214 54.14 - 57.12 6,258,169 (52.09%) 45 (50.56%)
all (48.89%) 44 (47.89%) 5,755,214 54.14 - 57.18 6,262,169 (52.11%) 46 (51.11%)

0-1% (60.53%) 23 (58.46%) 4,216,779 54.96 - 55.50 2,996,043 (41.54%) 15 (39.47%)
1-5% (42.86%) 3 (19.16%) 127,797 54.94 - 55.59 539,309 (80.84%) 4 (57.14%)
5-10% (57.89%) 11 (15.76%) 283,551 54.82 - 56.04 1,515,338 (84.24%) 8 (42.11%)
10-15% (26.67%) 4 (86.03%) 1,106,967 54.20 - 56.16 179,820 (13.97%) 11 (73.33%)
15-50% (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 54.20 - 57.03 951,967 (100.00%) 3 (100.00%)
50-100% (42.86%) 3 (21.00%) 20,120 54.14 - 57.12 75,692 (79.00%) 4 (57.14%)
100%- (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 54.14 - 57.18 4,000 (100.00%) 1 (100.00%)

Have you jumped yet or have decided not to? Vols strong with Big after close BUYS.

Yes I did ..... for about 2/3rds of what i sold ..... not long to wait :-))


ains

Well done and best of luck for both of us. What's the strategy for Wed & remember to inform me of disposal ASAP. Hoping for early am rise to be maintained. Would you offload the amount bought today in early morning or wait for US to open etc.

Looks good to me but early media comment focuses on the write downs ...



Released: 21 May 2003

- Improved operating performance across the Group delivered:

11% growth in customer base, to 19.4 million;
14% total revenue growth, to 4,874 million;
18% service revenue growth, to 4,327 million;
EBITDA before exceptionals almost doubled, to 859 million;
Operating loss before exceptionals and goodwill reduced to (104)
million;

- Exceptional charges of (9,664) million gave rise to a reported loss
before tax of (10,203) million;

- Net debt was reduced by 68 million, to 549 million.

David Varney, Chairman of mmO2 plc, commented:

'In these year-end results, the size of the exceptional charges we have taken
has masked the strong underlying performance delivered in our first full year as
an independent company. However this impairment enables us to go forward with a
balance sheet that reflects realistic assumptions about the potential of our
business to grow, and to deliver attractive returns for shareholders.

'Looking ahead, following the disposal of our sub-scale business in the
Netherlands, we will build on the momentum created since the demerger in our
continuing operations. We will maintain our focus on delivering growth, and
improving the operational and financial performance of all our businesses
without, as we have stated previously, ruling out any other potential
opportunities to deliver enhanced shareholder value.'


Year ended Year ended
31 March 31 March
2003 2002
m m
Turnover 4,874 4,276
EBITDA before exceptional items 859 433
Operating loss before goodwill and exceptional items (104) (337)
Exceptional items (9,664) (150)
Loss on ordinary activities before taxation (10,203) (873)
Year-end net debt 549 617


Peter Erskine, Chief Executive of mmO2 plc, commented:

'In mmO2's first full year as an independent company, it was vital for us to
deliver on the commitments made at the time of the demerger; these results
demonstrate this was achieved, with the Group delivering strong growth and
performance improvement.

'We launched the O2 brand, and across the Group it has achieved awareness and
appeal well ahead of expectations. We successfully restructured our businesses
in the UK and Germany, making them more efficient and getting them closer to
their customers. We implemented a lower cost 3G strategy in Germany that will
allow us to compete on equal terms with the market leaders. We acquired a 3G
licence in Ireland. We maintained our strong position in mobile data, leading
in the fast-growing UK text market, and launching a stream of innovative data
products. All these factors contributed to the growth, and improvement in
performance, that we are determined to sustain going forward'.


PERFORMANCE HIGHLIGHTS (comparative period: 12 months to 31 March 2002)

Group

Total customer base grew by 11% to 19.372 million
Total revenue grew by 14% to 4,874 million
Service revenue grew by 18%, to 4,327 million
EBITDA before exceptionals increased to 859 million (2002 : 433
million)
Capital expenditure reduced to 944 million (2002 : 1,142 million)
Net debt at 31 March was 549 million (31 March 2002 : 617 million)
Data as proportion of service revenue grew to 17.3% (2002 : 11.7%)
Total number of SMS messages sent grew by 60% to 8.5 billion

Premarket - still very undecided





Mobile messaging revenues to double by 2007

London, May 20 2003, (netimperative)



by Susie Harwood

Global revenues from mobile messaging are set to double to $70bn by 2007, with $25bn coming from Western Europe alone, according to a new report published by industry group Analysys.


This will be driven by further growth of SMS text messaging in new market segments and new applications, as well as the take-up of advanced messaging services such as MMS and mobile instant messaging, the report said.

In terms of total messaging volumes, Analysys predicts that this will quadruple over the next few years, from 670bn in 2002 to 2600bn in 2007. It believes that 607bn of these messages will originate in Western Europe, compared with 131bn last year.

Messaging services are particularly attractive to network operators, as they can achieve substantially higher revenue per Mb and profitability per user that voice telephony. Analysys said that based on average pricing, one minute of voice telephony generates less than $1 per Mb of network resource consumed, compared with over $1,000 per Mb for an SMS message.

Operators should not overlook simple text messaging such as SMS, according to the report, as there are still ample opportunities to increase usage and revenue by targeting new users and providing new content and services.

However, at the same time, Analysys said it is critical for operators to stimulate growth of new messaging services, such as MMS, which are being held back by high prices, lack of interworking and lack of critical mass of users. It believes that network operators should follow Japan's lead by setting affordable prices and packaging MMS with a range of services, as attempted with Vodafone Live!

L2? Yes, remember to let me know when is the right time to dispose today or Thu :)

We are up which is good ... waiting on broker coment


Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (44.44%) 8 (30.46%) 2,658,953 56.26 - 57.05 6,069,799 (69.54%) 10 (55.56%)
5% (43.48%) 10 (35.50%) 3,408,953 56.14 - 57.06 6,193,299 (64.50%) 13 (56.52%)
10% (38.64%) 17 (38.13%) 4,181,748 55.93 - 57.22 6,785,519 (61.87%) 27 (61.36%)
15% (43.10%) 25 (40.65%) 5,321,335 55.20 - 57.84 7,768,006 (59.35%) 33 (56.90%)
50% (41.54%) 27 (41.18%) 5,526,335 55.01 - 57.95 7,893,698 (58.82%) 38 (58.46%)
100% (44.93%) 31 (41.29%) 5,551,355 54.93 - 57.95 7,893,698 (58.71%) 38 (55.07%)
all (44.29%) 31 (41.28%) 5,551,355 54.93 - 57.99 7,897,698 (58.72%) 39 (55.71%)

L2 not looking strong. Can you provide for VOD also. Many more sellers have surfaced now, not sure if I should've disposed as UK mkt -0.6% is weakening now.

bit too busy to do vod at this time as it isnt one i track ..... I am still holding - volumes are very high but US futures are relatively flat but +



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (40.00%) 8 (44.18%) 3,643,175 56.53 - 57.14 4,602,259 (55.82%) 12 (60.00%)
5% (43.33%) 13 (54.03%) 5,693,175 56.33 - 57.17 4,844,059 (45.97%) 17 (56.67%)
10% (38.78%) 19 (54.69%) 6,446,170 56.18 - 57.35 5,339,879 (45.31%) 30 (61.22%)
15% (44.44%) 28 (54.67%) 7,605,557 55.62 - 58.09 6,305,466 (45.33%) 35 (55.56%)
50% (43.66%) 31 (54.89%) 7,825,557 55.46 - 58.21 6,431,158 (45.11%) 40 (56.34%)
100% (46.67%) 35 (54.97%) 7,850,577 55.41 - 58.21 6,431,158 (45.03%) 40 (53.33%)
all (46.05%) 35 (54.95%) 7,850,577 55.41 - 58.27 6,435,158 (45.05%) 41 (53.95%

L2 not looking good. Please provide for VOD also. Far too many sellers as UK-1.2%.

Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (48.65%) 18 (45.91%) 5,180,245 56.14 - 56.81 6,102,762 (54.09%) 19 (51.35%)
5% (47.50%) 19 (44.42%) 5,680,245 56.06 - 56.87 7,107,762 (55.58%) 21 (52.50%)
10% (45.76%) 27 (45.23%) 6,073,040 55.97 - 56.92 7,353,062 (54.77%) 32 (54.24%)
15% (46.58%) 34 (48.64%) 7,192,627 55.42 - 57.00 7,593,382 (51.36%) 39 (53.42%)
50% (48.10%) 38 (46.51%) 7,417,527 55.26 - 57.58 8,530,969 (53.49%) 41 (51.90%)
100% (47.67%) 41 (46.36%) 7,437,647 55.20 - 57.65 8,606,661 (53.64%) 45 (52.33%)
all (47.13%) 41 (46.35%) 7,437,647 55.20 - 57.69 8,610,661 (53.65%) 46 (52.87%)






0-1% (48.65%) 18 (45.91%) 5,180,245 56.14 - 56.81 6,102,762 (54.09%) 19 (51.35%)
1-5% (33.33%) 1 (33.22%) 500,000 56.06 - 56.87 1,005,000 (66.78%) 2 (66.67%)
5-10% (42.11%) 8 (61.56%) 392,795 55.97 - 56.92 245,300 (38.44%) 11 (57.89%)
10-15% (50.00%) 7 (82.33%) 1,119,587 55.42 - 57.00 240,320 (17.67%) 7 (50.00%)
15-50% (66.67%) 4 (19.35%) 224,900 55.26 - 57.58 937,587 (80.65%) 2 (33.33%)
50-100% (42.86%) 3 (21.00%) 20,120 55.20 - 57.65 75,692 (79.00%) 4 (57.14%)
100%- (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 55.20 - 57.69 4,000 (100.00%) 1 (100.00%)

L2 for VOD also? How comes your natural talent for this didn't predict O2 falling to yesterday's level. I feel really stupid now for not selling, such a waste of .

to be honest I had other things I was more interested in :-(( ..... trading other shares and had a few broker problems and put this on hold. It was unlikely I would sell after seeing figures and the shares are just reponding to the market falls .... they are now just ahead but I am happy to hold although I accept there was ST opportunity to close and rebuy (just)

ains

Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (48.65%) 18 (45.91%) 5,180,245 56.14 - 56.81 6,102,762 (54.09%) 19 (51.35%)
5% (47.50%) 19 (44.42%) 5,680,245 56.06 - 56.87 7,107,762 (55.58%) 21 (52.50%)
10% (45.76%) 27 (45.23%) 6,073,040 55.97 - 56.92 7,353,062 (54.77%) 32 (54.24%)
15% (46.58%) 34 (48.64%) 7,192,627 55.42 - 57.00 7,593,382 (51.36%) 39 (53.42%)
50% (48.10%) 38 (46.51%) 7,417,527 55.26 - 57.58 8,530,969 (53.49%) 41 (51.90%)
100% (47.67%) 41 (46.36%) 7,437,647 55.20 - 57.65 8,606,661 (53.64%) 45 (52.33%)
all (47.13%) 41 (46.35%) 7,437,647 55.20 - 57.69 8,610,661 (53.65%) 46 (52.87%)

0-1% (48.65%) 18 (45.91%) 5,180,245 56.14 - 56.81 6,102,762 (54.09%) 19 (51.35%)
1-5% (33.33%) 1 (33.22%) 500,000 56.06 - 56.87 1,005,000 (66.78%) 2 (66.67%)
5-10% (42.11%) 8 (61.56%) 392,795 55.97 - 56.92 245,300 (38.44%) 11 (57.89%)
10-15% (50.00%) 7 (82.33%) 1,119,587 55.42 - 57.00 240,320 (17.67%) 7 (50.00%)
15-50% (66.67%) 4 (19.35%) 224,900 55.26 - 57.58 937,587 (80.65%) 2 (33.33%)
50-100% (42.86%) 3 (21.00%) 20,120 55.20 - 57.65 75,692 (79.00%) 4 (57.14%)
100%- (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 55.20 - 57.69 4,000 (100.00%) 1 (100.00%)

Wednesday May 21, 08:58 AM





MmO2 makes 10 billion pound loss

Click to enlarge photo

LONDON (Reuters) - Mobile phone group mmO2 has reported a doubling of full-year core earnings, but has fallen to a deep loss after writing down its third-generation licences.


MmO2 (LSE: OOM.L - news - msgs) shares gained 2.7 percent to 56-3/4 pence as dealers welcomed the prudence of the 9.7 billion pound asset writedown. The group, worth around five billion pounds on the stock market, made a full-year pre-tax loss of 10.2 billion.


"Our board believes that this impairment enables us to go forward with a balance sheet that reflects realistic assumptions about the potential of our business to grow and to deliver attractive returns to shareholders," Chief Executive Peter Erskine told reporters on a conference call.


Erskine blamed the 3G writedowns on regulatory price cuts imposed earlier this year and delays to network roll-out caused by shortages of "unreliable and expensive" 3G handsets.


In an anticipated move, mmO2 wrote down 5.9 billion pounds relating to its 3G licences, 2.4 billion pounds in goodwill and 1.4 billion pounds on the sale of its Dutch business last month.


As a result of the one-off writedowns, Finance Director David Finch said mmO2 would turn a pre-exceptional, pre-goodwill operating profit this year if it met performance expectations.


The 2.1 billion pound writedown on its UK 3G licence, which cost four billion in 2000, would be tax-deductible, he added.


Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose to 859 million pounds in the year to March 31 from 433 million the previous year, at the upper end of expectations. Total revenue rose 14 percent to 4.874 billion pounds.


Average revenue per user over the 12 months to the end of March rose to 247 pounds in Britain from 243 pounds in the quarter to December, while the same figure in Germany climbed to 219 pounds from 212 pounds three months before. In the fourth quarter, mmO2 added 301,000 users to around 19.4 million.


Increasingly seen by analysts as a takeover target, mmO2 demerged from former British telecoms monopoly BT Group Plc (LSE: BT.L - news - msgs) in November 2001.


Dutch operator KPN (Amsterdam: KPN.AS - news) and mmO2 have held talks about combining their German operations, which are the number three and four players in a market dominated by Deutsche Telekom (Xetra: 555750.DE - news) and Vodafone Group Plc (LSE: VOD.L - news - msgs) .


Erskine said there were no discussions at the moment with KPN, but he once again left the door open to any potential developments that would contribute to "shareholder value".


As for speculation about BT buying back its mobile offspring to help drive growth, Erskine said: "I read it in the newspapers and again I assure you there's no conversations with them."


But he added: "I'll do whatever's right for shareholder value."

The reverse is also due to the comments at the analysts meeting this morning ...... no current discussions with KPN regarding a potential takeover price for german sub


massive vol today - already 116 mllion



ains

MmO2 hit by 10bn losses over 3G costs

JIM STANTON DEPUTY BUSINESS EDITOR


BRITISH mobile phone operator mmO2 today crashed to a 10.2 billion loss.

The loss - a consequence of massive asset writedowns - came despite Europes fifth-biggest mobile operator boosting core earnings.

The company, formerly BT Cellnet, took a 9.66bn non-cash exceptional charge to help readjust the value of third-generation (3G) licences bought at inflated prices during the height of the telecoms boom in 2000.

However, mmO2 did see its core pre-tax profit almost double to 859 million, which was near the upper end of analysts expectations of between 809m and 870m.

Overall sales grew 14 per cent to 4.87bn for the year to March 31, up from 433m last time. And the company also saw an 11 per cent increase in its customer numbers to 19.4 million.

About 5.9bn of the writedown relates to the 3G licences the company bought to operate wireless internet services via mobile phones.

As the telecoms bubble burst in 2000 the value of the licences plunged. But further doubt has been cast on their value as the services they were brought to provide have taken longer to roll out than was first expected because of the lack of 3G handsets. This has delayed any potential earnings from the new technology.

The remainder of the writedown is connected to lower valuations put on other telecom acquisitions to reflect the fall in stockmarkets over the past three years.

Some analysts believe that mmO2 has tidied up its balance sheet to make itself a more attractive takeover target.

In a statement, mmO2 said: "We still believe theres a great long-term future for 3G. Its a service people will want and will pay for but it will take time for them to adopt it."

Chairman David Varney said: "In these year-end results, the size of the exceptional charges we have taken has masked the strong underlying performance delivered in our first full year as an independent company.

"However, this impairment enables us to go forward with a balance sheet that reflects realistic assumptions about the potential of our business to grow."

Mr Varney added that after the company had disposed of some operations in the Netherlands, mmO2 could build on the momentum it had created since it demerged from parent BT Group in November 2001.

Mr Varney said that arpu (average revenue per user) - a key industry measure - over the 12 months to the end of March rose to 247 in Britain from 243 in the quarter to December. In the fourth quarter, mmO2 added 301,000 users to around 19.4 million.

Chief executive Peter Erskine insisted that the company had put in a strong performance in spite of the writedown.

He said: "In mmO2s first full year as an independent company, it was vital for us to deliver on the commitments made at the time of the demerger; these results demonstrate this was achieved, with the group delivering strong growth and performance improvement."

Mr Erskine said the groups "O2" brand, which had been introduced across the whole group, had "achieved awareness and appeal well ahead of expectations".

He said that over the year the firm had successfully restructured its business in the UK and Germany, as well as securing a 3G licence for Ireland, and had introduced a stream of data service products.

"All these factors contributed to the growth, and improvement in performance, that we are determined to sustain going forward," Mr Erskine added.

nomura is bullish and considers write downs as a red herring