will it ever recover to the 38p i paid for them??

i think these progressively rise over the next few weeks to settle closer to 20.

rgds
PT

love your optimism, can't wait for the Chinese JV to be announced (some day my plintz will come - tra la la!)

After Fridays news this looks a screaming buy. Why certain people on ADVFN have to deramp without factual information is however beyond me ! It is really pathetic as this company has now turned the corner and is ready to shine.

couldnt agree more moneyman, have given up on the arx thread on advfn. think its a case of all the kids are still off for summer!

ADVFN? what do they know about ARX! facts are in...one order from American and a repeat order from Virgin. Guys...this company is now VIABLE and probably worth a hell of a lot more than the current price. One more deal or a Cinese JV and these are straight backj to the 20's.

Had the American + V irgin order not come in the downside was zero. now we have limited downside. HUGE difference, your punting cash is now a bona fide investment!

rgds
PT

How many boxes do they need to sell to break even?

Taking last year's goodwill write-down and overheads and purely guessing that cost of sales is 50% we have in Sterling
Turnover required 7,656,000 (2004 172,000)
Cost of sales 50% 3,828,000 (2004 320,000)
Gross profit 3,828,000
Goodwill write-down 882,000 (this may be zeroed by changes to new Intl accounting stndrds)
Overheads 2,946,000
Net Profit zero

Each box sells at 750 (about 50% higher than aluminium boxes)
So they need to sell 10,208 boxes per year!!
On the above basis, taking out goodwill write down and ignoring depreciation (v. rough) they need to sell 7,856 p.a. to achieve cash break even - say 7,200 excluding depreciation of 246,000

They've announced sales of 750 so far this year this year.

Their capacity was increased last year from 10 to 50 boxes a week - that's 2,600 p.a. - according to last year's accounts.

Just read a website (see below, which I originally posted some time ago) that says they need to sell 600 boxes a month to become cash neutral. That's 7,200 p.a. It ties in with my figues above but is almost 3 X their capacity.

Their target is to reach 10% of the world market estimated at 75-150m p.a. within a year, which matches my break even figure, but their actual sales are no where near this. Then they want to aim for 25% of the market eventually.

Something is not in kilter here.

Overheads seem quite high in addition to cost of sales which should include manufacturing materials and labour - were they exceptionally high last year with r&d costs written off? Can they be reduced?

Last year's accounts say they will not be profitable before 2006, but will they make it in 2007?

There is also another interesting article on this site about the new sales team.

http://www.jeccomposites.com/
enter aerobox in the search box, then hit paragraph 2. then scan down to 15/02/05 dated article on aerobox. also - hit paragraph 1. for new sales team update.
sd

Just wait for the China news !

Is there something you would like to share with us, moneyman? I also think the China JV, now presumably being pursued by their new man in Asia, Dr Ting Ho, is a very big thing, but have no view as toi when/if it may happen. Can you enlighten us?

sd

posted on advfn by
metex - 1 Sep'05 - 15:25 - 26169 of 26209

"The GROUP HISTORY....regarding product development....taken straight from Arx website....www.aeroboxplc.com....makes very interesting reading IMHO.

2005.

MAY

50,000 flights completed.

Aerobox starts trials in China.

Interim certification granted by Chinese Aviation Authority.

APRIL

Modified Aerobox starts Military trials.

MARCH

Insulated curtain Aerobox launched for Perishable market.

FEB

25,000 flights completed.

Kelvin Prototype starts airline trials in Japan.

JAN

First non-aviation contract signed."

Results ot today, rehashing old news mainly. $1.5m boxes contracted for sale H2. $1m fibre technology sales for H1 2006 - more upbeat, but still reflecting how tough it is to bring new ideas to market - cf. SEO and PGS.

SP took a tumble by 1p or so, now lots of healthy buyers out there topping up - which is where I'd be if my allocation was not already filled.

Lon-term - can you see this SP at 70p in 5 years time? If so, HOLD tight.

sd

interesting results. looks like the pricing issue will not go away and the "whole life concept" is still a hard sell. i remain a holder but need to see order flow increase. I am pleased they have shelved the refigeration boxes - focus on the main 35-40,000 box market first and then diversify.

rgds
PT

Looking at the 8 or 10 (?) US airlines in Chapter 11, and the w/wide difficulty of turning a profit, it's not surprising purchasing managers are not putting their heads above the parapet.

btw - BIG ommission this morning was no mention of Chinese JV. Either it's nowhere, or imminent and sensitive. I suspect the former unfortunately. Any gossip out there on this one?

sd

Good news at last, hope they can hold on to today's gain.
AeroBox Composite Structures ('ACS'), the US subsidiary of Aerobox plc has
agreed to a 5 year supply contract to supply the AeroBox AKE-SLD (solid bifold
door) for use by a Middle East airline. The contract has a minimum value of US$6
million and ACS will deliver ULDs with a minimum value of US$1.2 million in the
first half of each calendar year.

Hope you're right too, knocker1!

this is really really good news. no doubt they can now raise a bit of capital from the order flow but is a great win. i really want to see insiders now buying.

someone just took their foot of the windpipe again - better take some deep breaths while you can till it clamps back down again!

great news, nice order over nice long period. need a few more to bring it back to life fully. still got all mine - waht else can you do with them?

prop, guess you right about having to raise more money - at a heavy discount to the favoured few I imagine.

sd

Stocckdog why do you continually put down shares that have well and truly turned the corner ? This means that the company has been accepted and after the order from AA and also the repeat order from Virgin things are looking very very promising. You seem to have a fetish talking stocks down and profess that you know everything about anything !!

0238jr - 20 Oct'05 - 21:31 - 27603 of 27603


At least US$1.2m per year. Could well be a minimum of 1,000 boxes a year at $1,200 each.

1,000 boxes is 2.5 months capacity on a single shift (400 per month)- but they can go to a double or even triple shift if necessary.

Therefore there is still bags of spare capacity.

This provides a good solid base from which hopefull yet more orders will develop.

there is always something of a herd mentality in aviation circles- i suspect that initially many airlines were reluctant to even trial the new technology; arx did well to get over that hurdle, and the standard boxes (contra kelvin reefers) have passed all trials with flying colours

then there would have been reluctance to place a substantial order- but the saudi/ virgin/ aa orders cracked that resistance.

the final hurdle was getting long term commitment- any buyers would have need to be satisfied that arx could cope with the ongoing manufacturing requirements in the medium term- and now that reluctance has been overcome.

hopefully this will be a "dam bursting" time, and now that resistance at each level has gone many more orders will flow in.

while there is, as i say, plenty of capacity, there may even be a scramble to get a place on the delivery schedule.

not many of the names posting now were around in early 2004, when i first bought in, before the falling out with wmk.

at that stage, and when things were about to kick off between arx and wmk, and there must have been some tension in the air, john calcutt, ceo of wmk gave an adfvn interview in which he said that arx's biggest difficulty would be keeping up with demand


with a bit of luck the next 12 months might see that develop.

worth bearing in mind that in the early days, when there was a lot of excitement about the company, the mkt cap was in the 20 to 30 million range.

obviously there was a lot of hype, and the initial rise in sp was overdone, and there have been delays and disappointments since. but, i think that given the company has now shown the ability to cut it, in terms of significant penetration into the mkt, there could well be a new wave of excitement/ expectation interest.

with a couple more box orders, plus, a non-aviation deal if the rumours are true, we should be looking at a sp in the mid 20s by easter.

moneyman - funnyman! lol!

what are you on about? of course I know nothing, except what I see. what do you find negative about my inverted optimism - I'm loaded with these buggers and want them to go up. you just repeated what I said (but more long-winded) we need more orders to build on the ME airlines deal. Bags of spare capacity is just the problem - why is it spare?

I guess you still can't forgive me for my posts on IFM - now that business I do happen to know something about - still doesn't mean I'm right about the SP - that's what makes the market, your opinion against mine.

Anyway, relax, Moneyman, I bet I'm as down the hole on this one as you or anyone - I just believe one day we'll look back and wonder what the problem was. It's just another example of how hard it is to bring new products to market, especially as most of your main market is almost bankrupt.

btw - have you read any of my previous posts on this thread? anyone else agree with Moneyman's opening remarks about me? If I didn't know you were talking crap, I might even get quite offended. Do you need help, MM? I am sure there are counsellors for people who get over-invested in a share that falls through the floor. Try Debt Free Direct - I made some nice money on that one, but I'm out now.

what is the matter with moneymane,
he isn't ill and he hasn't a pain,
is it others' opinions that're posted again,
what is the matter with moneymane?

sd

As a neutral observer (not a holder of ARX as anything to do with aircraft in the past has always cost me money!) must lend support to SD, whose comments generally I find less tinted with rose coloured spectacles than most. Quick look at this suggests a good product which they presently cannot sell at high enough margin to get decent return, so sensibly seeking to reduce cost of manufacture. In the meantime cash is running out quickly and imo it seems likely they will need more - unlikely to benefit existing holders. Could be a bumpy ride - hope holders get a good landing in due course.

During 2005 production has been ramped up from 40/month to 400/month - in one shift. The company now has enough work to keep it stretched until the beginning of Spring. Will orders follow on at anything like the production rate? For the moment there is no evidence that this will happen.

For the moment margins are thin due to frequent changes of production to provide the three different kinds of boxes specified. Margins will improve as increased sales permit longer production runs.


ARX may as well be a early stage Bio company with clinical trial at phase II. The unavoidably long drawn out evaluation for a product needing 6 -12 months to pass through several stages of scrutiny. Each purchase must be preceded by testing for months in actual use to evaluate reduction in damage, ease of repair, handling characteristics, and therefore economic justification. After that come development and modification to incorporate client requirements: e.g. reducing
weight, adapting to forklift trucks, anti-pilfering etc. The Virgin re-order of 250 cases on 25 August '04 came a year after the first 100 deliveries. That was a significant timescale for investors to go by.. Of these boxes 150 were purchased on condition the weight could be reduced from 73kg to 68k. This kind of condition put with each contract, has accelerated improvement of the Aerobox but destroyed the profitability of these first few orders.

The two orders in August proved to be only a short-term fillip. The share price was
quickly brought back to earth by profit -taking and or Bear activity. Today the response to the good news was much more muted though the value of the order was x8 times as great. The Bears were bragging of their involvement and encouraging as many as possible to join in. That increase in the weight of money of course makes their success more certain. We doubt whether in the circumstance the deserved price rise can be sustained. Investors should press the FSA to take action to stop this abuse which threatens the inflow of money in start-up situation.

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