ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

PTH

Thanks for your comments re the issue of what to sell to buy CFP. I opened a bb on AZM a few weeks ago, prior to the interims, looking for positive news about a licensing deal for their obesity drug. In fact, the price receded as the management wanted to be further along the road before dealing with their crown jewels. The price jumped this week on a Merrill Lynch buy signal with a price quoted of 190p, suggesting the possibility of a takeover. I suspect a number of holders missed the CEO's comment to analysts that 'a licensing deal would not be completed before early next year' and stressed the need to have a partner which would be motivated to put the drug on the pharmacists shelves. They are a prospect to double within six months although I would rank them behind YOO. I will probably take some profits on YOO, which is a larger holding anyway, depending pon the relative movement of YOO and AZM on Monday. I will certainly take a 5% stake in CFP. For other readers, some excellent posts by PTH and Overgrowth on the CFP bb.

Regarding your own decision (lovely to have some new money rather than recycling existing!), it depends on the level of risk. Of the three shares, SEY is the safest play and PET probably the most risky. PET certainly has a lot of upside potential and could explode (not literally, I hope!). Posters seem to be very close to the company and it would appear that a decision in Iraq is highly likely within a couple of weeks. This is most likely to lead to a frenzy of activity before the cool light of day initiates a reaction. A short term investment in PET with a view to taking some profits on a price rise following an announcement?

Returning to the primary purpose of this bb, I have been impressed with your charts which demonstrate the value of the Bollinger Band theory - its super that your post above automatically updates the graph. Two newspaper articles this week (which you may have missed) suggests that ASC is really newsworthy and this might suggest that the price is unlikely to recede much. Probably worth building up the holding gradually rather than missing the market.

regards

Eric

I saw in the news tonight, a bomb has exploded outside the Iraqi Oil Ministry, didn't see if there was any loss of life, appalling if there was, but it puts into perspective the risks that any commercial company undertakes in dealing with Iraq at the moment.

Eric,

Thanks for the advice on where to invest, have been trawling around various sites during today, looking for that all elusive, undervalued, about-to-go-into-orbit share! Can't say I have found it yet, but will probably find out in a week, I did actually consider it!!

Regards

PTH

TRUST ME SIR BNH IS GOOD. I KNOW OF SOME VERY VERY SHREWD PUNTERS IN IT ALREADY... THE ONES THAT WERE IN AT ASOS AT 7P AND SOLD AT 60P PLUS.

Agree with BNH. When this one starts to move again it will fly (just like ASC).Well worth giving serious consideration to. I have.

Also PDX looks about to go into orbit!

Some suggestions:

1. I think that if anyone linked into this 'tip' list, spots something of interest in the stock/s that may make them think about selling or indeed 'buying' some more...it would be very helpful if they posted their views on this BB thread.
2. When one of the stocks hits the target, we should continue with the stock/list until we all agree the stock should be replaced with another selection.
3. Changes can be on a quarterly basis...as agreed by Eric.

I like it, good idea jonhgtudor. Just thinking is it worth opening a new thread as were on the ASC bb thread at the mo? Good to see MPH is up today....... only by half a penny though!

I would certainly be happy with johngtudor's suggestions. What actions have contributors taken on the portfolio? Perhaps for a while we should keep it on this thread. ASC is essentially the benchmark stock and I assume we are all holding it. Regarding stock replacement, if the nominator gives up on a stock and suggests a replacement, perhaps it should be replaced provided that there is no objection (say, from two others). Generally, we should work on consensus, recognising it is difficult to do that given that some will not visit the bb as often as others. Quarterly may be too long as a 'week is a long time' in politics and share trading, perhaps particularly with a portfolio like this!

The portfolio is certainly an exciting one and, I suspect, not for those if nervous disposition. CFP was the only share not to move today, although trading was healthy. Rises were: BNH +16%; CCN +7.6%; MPH +6%; ASC =4.2%; SEO +3%. Falls were: PET -11%; CYH -6%; SEY -5%; YOO -2.9%; CCI -1.5%. I switched 10% of my porfolio, selling some YOO and AZM and buying exploratory holdings in CFP, BNH and CYH (2:1:1 ratio). Relatively very large movement (before I bought unfortunately)in BNH on low volumes. My CYH buy was marked up as a sell which suggests that trading was much more balanced than shown. CFP and CYH both look as if a significant rise is very much overdue.

ASC appears to be breaking upwards after a spell of horizontal trading, although the days rise was against a majority of sales - MMs needing to build up stock? I have an embargo on any sales of ASC, despite the level of the holding and the attraction of many of the nominated shares.

Happy trading!
Eric

Eric

When you say CYB, don't you mean CFP?

PTH

PTH

Many thanks - can't cope with these mnemonics! Have corrected post to avoid multiplying confusion. Comment about price rise being overdue referred to CFP and CYH.

Eric

I got tipped MPH today folks by a reliable punter, he reckons they are going to go to 50p plus...

As for BNH, a very good day, good to see people looking at them at last.

Eric et al:

I agree with you on stock replacement...but in order to avoid lots of frequent changes, the nominator puts forward the reasons for the change/substition and as long as it is supported by a minimum of two others then that seems fins and dandy!

I think the 7th of this month was a very good day to BUY more of ASC, I am not sure if it was the last opportunity as we build up to Xmas, but the Kaji chart turned Blue, and even small Buys have seemed to push up the Offer price...so as you say the consolidation may be over and we now look forward to another push up.

Certainly exciting times ahead, as the ASOS brand is really having an impact among it's target client base. Indeed it is liked more because it is NOT an established brand than if it was. If sales continue to florish it is more likely that ASC will be bought out than a rival setting up a competitive site. That's not to say that there is no competition already because there is, but it is different. Methinks some of the Shorters out there will soon start to unwind, and then whoosh!

I too hold small parcels of shares in the other tips on this BB, as it keeps you much more focussed on progress!


BFN John

Released today:

Marchpole Holdings PLC
12 October 2004

12 October 2004

Embargoed for 7.00am

Marchpole Holdings plc

(the 'Company')

Trading update

YSL and Boateng

Sales for the YSL and Boateng collections remain ahead of the Directors'
expectations following the half-year close, with the YSL Autumn Winter 2004
order book 70 per cent. delivered and the Boateng Autumn Winter 2004 order book
85 per cent. delivered to customers.

Jean-Charles de Castelbajac ('JCC)

Over 80 per cent. of the Autumn Winter 2004 customer programme has now been
delivered, giving an overall performance in line with Directors' expectations.

Spring Summer 2005 order books

The YSL and Boateng order books for this season now stand at 10 million
compared to orders for 8.5 million for Spring Summer 2004 season at the same
time last year.

The JCC order book for this season's collections currently stands at 3.4
million.

Overall performance

The Directors are pleased with the group's overall performance which continues
to be above their expectations.

Interim results

The Company expects to release its interim results for the six months ended 30
September on 9 November 2004.

For further information contact:

Marchpole 020 7908 7700

Greg Tufnell - Chief Executive
Justin Hampshire - Finance Director
Michael Morris - Executive Director

Shore Capital 020 7408 4090

Alex Borrelli / Simon Edwards

Buchanan

Tim Thompson 07710 718 649

This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange


Good to see a positive statement, seems like a few profit takers were selling today. Think the run up to the results will be very interesting.... Keep an eye on this one!

This is a cracker (MPH), i bought at 18p and thought it was to late then but look it go, i think it could a lot further yet. I am still in despite nearly 100% increase. It has more to go yet. Just waiting for the same to happen to pci, cyh, pet, sps(+40%) and bprg (+25%).

Recommend you also look at dana petroleum (dnx), directors buying today and signed a deal with woodside to explore four countries, new contracts in the north sea and increasing the uk output. Have a look and tell me what you think.

Must agree, i certainly sleep well having MPH in my portfolio.... Got in later then yourself, mid twenty's. Never the less very happy and expect more!
Sold out of sps last week and bought into PET, it was a toss up between PET and DNX! Currently at a loss with PET but i'm very positive about there future (contract wins etc) Very high risk, time will tell though!
Keeping a very close eye DNX, feel that i may of missed the boat slightly but will watch very carefully, lots of potential but not to sure about the short term.
Currently holding, ASC, MPH, PET and BNH.
Best of luck with DNX

ASOS Challenge team

See this as a democratic process rather than a benevolent autocracy (I have the benevolence but lack the largesse to go with it)! The posts made suggest the following 'guidelines' for the portfolio:

1. (as per johngtudor) The nominator advises when the share sould be sold (either because profits should be taken or because it emerges as a dog). This needs to be ratified by concurrence of two others from the nominating team. The nominator has first call on nominating a replacement but may choose to refer it to the team.

2. It is assumed that significant news will be posted on the appropriate bb - all EPICs now have their own thread. However, a trading recommendation, or pointer to significant news, is appropriate for this thread; also any sharing of individual portfolios.

3. The challenge is for nominated 'shares to double before ASC'. To qualify, the share should remain at more be at least double its opening price for a minimum of two weeks (specifically, at two weekly closes). It is anticipated that, at a minimum, the portfolio will be kept running until ASC has itself qualified. We should then consider whether a second challenge should be mounted, perhaps opening a separate thread for the first portfolio.

4. EWR to report each weekend on the porfolio performance (excluding 'nominator' column)- with analysis as appropriate by johngtudor and ptholden (the chart man!). If portfolio performs significantly ahead of market, report to be made to Shares editor.

OK? Happy to edit this text with any improvements suggested, with cross-reference from a new post.

The lines connecting recent ASC peaks and troughs, beloved of the chartists, meet at 62p in early November. Presumably a break-out from this triangle is significant?

Eric

Eric, Aye to your suggestions.

Talking to a chartist the other day, if ASC closes at .72p or over put your house on it.

capa

capa

My house is already on it! Took out equity release funds to start the portfolio (in Jan 2003; up 90%, looking to double that with this portfolio!)

Seriously, the earlier comment about a take-over makes a lot of sense. Whether it starts moving with a break above 72p, beating its previous high, or the expected bullish trading statement coming up to Xmas, the brand name is likely to be too attractive for one of the big players to miss. The time is likely to come when the founders will be quite happy to take their money. At what price? Probably not less than 100m, or 150p a share. What do others think - seems low to me?

Eric

Eric: I endorse your mail on ASOS Challenge Team Guidelines.

As already mentioned, I do think it is likely that ASOS will be taken over at some future time. Most other retail operators already have their hands full with high street business (just look at some of the sales figures now being published)!. Any dilution of that effort to start up an Internet Business will probably not be endorsed by the Board and in any case will take time. The really big boys are already operating in the on-line market and ASOS just loves the competition. That said, working out a takeover price is pure speculation...it is likely to be a mixture of earnings/profits and a premium on top if they do not already have a profitable Internet Business...it may even come from overseas...if, as we believe, ASOS begins to make succesful export sales. So it will be easier to estimate a likely figure afer the next results are out and the Analysts (we really need more coverage) start putting out the figures.

Now would I put my house on it.....that's a very risky and courageous decision to make but YES, I am that positive this SP will really motor in due course. John

johngtudor

Certainly earning your corn as our resident analyst! Couldn't agree more with your analysis. My own figure was really just a 'pessimistic view' to encourage our team to go overweight on ASOS if not currently the case. My own portfolio is now 2/6 ASOS; 1/6 each AZM, YOO, the 3 portfolio energy shares, the 6 other shares. Very impressed by the case in favour of each holding, so have ended up, like you, having the whole portfolio on board. Each will decide their own weightings, and may not take whole portfolio on board - would be interesting to know how others have balnaced their portfolio but will understand if that is a question too far!

Eric