I am a trader as well as an investor and hopefully this thread will reflect both aspects ....

We should start by saying this is a highly speculative share and the market takes no prisoners.

Over the last 18 months I made lots twice in the early days - then lost it back - bought a million at 2.6p average - founded the TAG - bought another half a million or so at sub 1p - sold most at average 4.25 - bought back at 2.2p and less - sold most at 3.5p and now buying back - overall a good net profit at this time.

I think the d4e will happen (say 90% chance) and the 3% currently talked about will give or should give a price equating to say 3/5p. Longer term on succcess of d4e and progress in the sales market the shares should move to around 10p - assumming markets are not in freefall.

I am looking to buy at any time and hoping for a war generated dip - when I do I will let you know.

The TAG site is a great place for catching up on the TWT news and I will post here as well.

Currently trading on TWT is light (1.7 million traded) and the price is down a littlw with a wide spread (2.01/2.35p). This is a sets share and you must expect a crtain amount of manipulation in these troubled times - FTSE down over 4% intraday

I have a core holding of at least half a million shares and intend to be a long term investor at this time.


ainsoph


http://www.investoraction.co.uk - currently we have 804 registered members holding around 100 million shares in total

I am sue it will happen but over a longer time scale

ains


NTL and Telewest could merge next year

Owen Gibson
Tuesday February 11, 2003


Telewest: set to emerge from a financial restructure later this year

Telewest chief Charles Burdick has for the first time laid out a timetable for merging his company with rival NTL, predicting it could happen early next year.
Mr Burdick, who took over as managing director last year from former chief executive Adam Singer, predicted Telewest would emerge from a financial restructure in the second quarter of 2003, break even by the fourth quarter and possibly merge with NTL soon afterwards.

"Our plans show the second quarter of 2004 as cash-flow positive but I have the team focused on internal targets that move that up to the fourth quarter of 2003," he said.

"If Telewest meets that target, it will be the first cable company in the world to turn cash-flow positive."

NTL's recent debt for equity swap halved its 12bn debt and Telewest expects to emerge from a similar restructure, having halved its 5.3bn debt.

However, Telewest still has a few minor hurdles to clear with creditors and is relying on a 2.2bn bank loan agreed in January to see

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it through.

It would leave both companies free to complete the cycle of consolidation that has characterised the cable industry for the past decade but has left it with huge debts and playing catch up with a dominant BSkyB.

Telewest and NTL have admitted a merger would be a logical step in enabling them to compete with BSkyB and the two firms already work together in various marketing and sales capacities. However, they been hamstrung by their huge debts.

The only remaining stumbling block to a merger would be deciding which company takes management control. Mr Burdick insisted that, although smaller, Telewest would be in a stronger position.

"Look at the continuity of management at Telewest. We haven't done a major acquisition for three years and our restructure was much less disruptive to the organisation than theirs. So most people say we are in much better shape," he told the Wall Street Journal today.

In the last two quarters NTL's and Telewest's subscriber numbers have fallen, with the latter losing 25,000 customers.

"We've stood still for about six quarters but its not irreparable damage," said Mr Burdick, adding the company's focus would be on pushing its broadband service, which has 250,000 subscribers.

"I see a world where there's literally 100% broadband penetration in 10 years because of educational tools for kids, working at home, file sharing, music downloads and games," he said.

"All these are going to appeal to different niches in the population."

AFX-Focus) 2003-02-11 13:13 GMT: Telewest says to turn cashflow positive by year end, sees 2004 merger with NTL
LONDON (AFX) - Telewest Communications PLC said it is aiming to turn cashflow positive by the end of this year, six months ahead of its original forecast.
The company also attached a date of 2004, for the first time, for when it may merge with the UK's largest cable operator NTL Inc.

"The plans show we will be cash flow positive in the second quarter of 2004 but we have the team focused on internal targets for the end of this year," said a company spokeswoman.

The company will achieve these goals through tight cost control, pushing growth in broadband customers and cutting 100 mln stg from 450 mln stg earmarked for 2003.

Telewest expects to come out of a complex financial restructuring in the second quarter.

In August the group was forced, by a mountain of debt run up from building its cable network, to unveil a plan to swap 3.5 bln stg of its 5.3 bln stg debt for equity.

Analysts and investors have said, for at least a year, that once Telewest and NTL had rid themselves of debt a merger would be logical.

We have said that it makes sense to merge once both parties have come out of restructuring," said the spokeswoman.

"But it's not going to be a mad rush," she added.

NTL has only just emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the US after agreeing terms of an 11 bln usd debt-for-equity swap.

A merger with NTL would enable the combined group to take on the dominant satellite broadcaster British Sky Broadcasting in pay-TV and BT Group PLC in broadband internet.

There would also be cost-savings to come from joining forces.

Telewest shares have fallen from 75 pence in December to 2.5 pence on the back of news the group's debt-for-equity swap would leave shareholders with just 3 pct of the company.

At the height of the boom in TMT stocks three years ago, Telewest was worth more than 14 bln stg, compared with just 20 mln stg today.

Chief executive Adam Singer resigned last year and former finance director Charles Burdick took over.

In the last two quarters Telewest has seen net subscribers fall by a total of 25,000.

But Telewest had about 250,000 broadband subscribers in November and new subscribers are signing up at a rate of around 50,000 a quarter.

tf/jc



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Fair old volume @ over 20 million and a long time since we saw 3p on the offer



ains

More ISPs 'to impose download limits'
14:21 Tuesday 11th February 2003
Graeme Wearden


With broadband networks increasingly 'swamped' by P2P traffic, experts predict that by the end of the year most ISPs will limit how much data users can download
The widespread and growing use of peer-to-peer networks is likely to force broadband operators to restrict the amount of data their subscribers are allowed to download, according to analyst group Jupiter Research.

Jupiter Research warned this week that file sharing is growing "at a phenomenal rate", and that the sheer volume of music and movie files being transferred between users is putting a huge burden on broadband service providers.

According to Jupiter, some broadband ISPs are finding that over 50 percent of the traffic on their networks is caused by P2P file-sharing.

"Although not the only factor in driving Internet users to broadband, file-sharing has proven to be broadband's first 'killer application,'" said Dan Stevenson, analyst at Jupiter Research, in a research note. "As well as being a big problem for record labels and the Hollywood studios alike, Internet service providers are beginning to suffer too -- under the heavy weight that file-sharing imposes on their networks."

As a result of the increased traffic, these operators will probably be forced to limit the amount of data its broadband customers are allowed to download from the Net. Should they exceed this limit, they will be charged extra.

"Not wanting to take on the file-sharing networks in court, the best solution for broadband service providers to address this issue would be to impose monthly data limits on their subscribers," Stevenson advised.

Jupiter predicts that by the end of 2003 such data limits will be "the rule, not the exception."

Such a move is likely to prove unpopular with broadband users, though, who are likely to feel that data limits are at odds with the idea of an unlimited, always-on service.

NTL caused a large amount of controversy over the last few days after introducing data limits for its broadband service. It plans to target people who regularly download more than 1GB of data per day.

Back in October 2001, BT also caused a storm of protest when it blocked the ports used by some peer-to-peer applications. It said the move was an attempt to ensure it offered a decent service for all users, but did back down after many customers complained.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Telewest and NTL eye merger as profitability approaches

London, February 11 2003, (netimperative)



by Richard Agnew

UK cable operators Telewest and NTL could be set to merge early next year if their respective refinancing programmes go according to plan.


Telewest MD Charles Burdick said the long-awaited move may go ahead if his firm emerges from financial restructuring and reaches break even by the fourth quarter of this year as planned.

Both firms, which operate in different geographical areas and have cooperated on marketing initiatives, have in the past admitted that a merger could allow them to consolidate and compete more effectively with major rivals BT and BSkyB.

But Telewest is now reliant on a 2.2bn bank loan it gained last month for funds, and it has yet to be decided which firm's management would take control. NTL, which declined to comment, has also just completed a similar deal to cut the 12bn it owed.

Burdick told the Wall Street Journal today that Telewest, once it has finalised a deal with its creditors to halve its 5.3bn debt and reduced interest payments, is now concentrating on reaching a positive cash-flow position by Q4 this year, and the merger could follow shortly after.

He said: "Our plans show the second quarter of 2004 as cash-flow positive but I have the team focused on internal targets that move that up to the fourth quarter of 2003. If Telewest meets that target, it will be the first cable company in the world to turn cash-flow positive."

Users call for anti-NTL protest
By Tim Richardson
Posted: 11/02/2003 at 16:30 GMT


Angry NTL customers are trying to drum up support for a public demonstration of defiance against the cableco following its decision to cap its broadband service.

Some are calling for a "mass cancellation" of their service on Valentine's Day (this Friday) while others want to use the day simply to disconnect from the service in a bid to register their dissatisfaction.

Either way, the newsgroups are buzzing with suggestions about how to make NTL understand the unrest felt by its broadband customers.

They include:


A public demonstration outside NTL's offices

Withholding payment

Massively exceeding the 1 gig a day limit but ensuring that this does not breach guidelines that say people will only be targeted if they exceed the daily data limit for three or more days in any consecutive 14-day period.

At the moment, there doesn't appear to be any co-ordinated campaign of action that would cement the opposition to NTL's decision to cap the service.

Instead, many people have taken their own decision by cancelling or downgrading their services in protest at the move.

Others have complained to Oftel, the Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) and the BBC's flagship consumer affair programme Watchdog. There have even been calls for the resignation of senior execs at NTL over the affair.

It's clear that NTL has badly misjudged opposition to this move.

Oh dear.....just looked in on ADVFN. The teachers have left and the kids are wrecking the classroom.

regards

There you go ..... look in here for my thoughts on current situation later



Cash-in by cable SUN
TELEWEST, Britains biggest TV and phone cable company, expects to be generating cash by the end of the year.

This is six months earlier than planned.

Telewest, which has 1.3million cable TV and 1.6million phone customers, also expects to complete a financial reorganisation by the end of June.

Managing director Charles Burdick said the company could merge with rival NTL next year, again earlier than expected. The shares rose 0.25p to 2.75.

The Herald


Telewest raises possibility of merger with NTL
MARK SMITH
CHARLES Burdick, managing director of financially troubled cable firm Telewest, yesterday said the company may merge with rival NTL, the UK's largest cable operator, at the beginning of 2004.

NTL, which emerged from a debt-restructuring and Chapter 11 bankruptcy last month, declined to comment on Burdick's remarks in the European edition of the Wall Street Journal.

Both companies have had a rough ride in recent years.

Telewest, like Nasdaq-traded NTL before it, fell victim to debts accumulated during 1990s expansion drives.

Telewest, the UK's second-largest cable firm which employs about 1000 people in Scotland, said it expects to emerge from a 3.5bn debt-for-equity swap in the second quarter as it tries to get approval from all its creditors for the plan.

Both Telewest and NTL have said that a merger would be logical as the two companies attempt to compete with satellite television operator BSkyB and with BT.

-Feb 12th






Scotsman

Telewest may see black in 2003


TELEWEST, the UKs second largest cable-TV company, may make more money than it spends by the end of 2003 after cutting costs, according to managing director Charles Burdick.

The company expects spending on network and equipment in 2003 to be about 100 million, less than the 450 million it spent last year, Burdick said. Telewest may still merge with larger cable-TV company NTL, he added.

"Our plan says well be cash-flow positive by mid-2004, but were working toward the end of this year. It is a combination of cost control, cutting capital expenditure and were not paying interest on 3.5 bn of debt." Telewest and NTL amassed about $26 billion (16 bn) of debt between them building networks and buying rivals.

Looks like the classroom is getting transferred eh????? (ainsoph with a small 'a')

To the poster earlier who addressed a question to me hi, sorry for the delay in getting back to you.

Its immpoosible to keep up with sheer vol of posts both here and at advfn on the TAG twt thread, (plus I do an occaisional update over at 3i.)

Ainsoph and I do not know what good we achieved except one thing, Telewest were very very aware of us.............and its fair to say wary, and that was BEFORE the d for e full details were released. We aimed to stop an energis, ie a complete colapse and was very public about it. On that basis it looks like we were successful although in fairness we do not know if our public presence made any difference or not.

Soon now the TAG's work will be done, but we will kep an interest until the d for e mechanism finally happens and "new" twt shares trade.

Ainsoph will answer other questions I am sure

Telewest-NTL merger possible: Burdick
By electricnews.net
Posted: 11/02/2003 at 14:17 GMT


UK cable company Telewest expects to be cash-flow positive by the fourth quarter, and a merger with NTL could be on the cards, the firm's managing director has said.

Telewest boss Charles Burdick has predicted that the company will begin generating money in its fourth quarter, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. This would follow the completion of the company's debt refinancing plan that has seen 97 percent of Telewest taken over by creditors.

More significantly, Burdick has said that at the beginning of next year, a merger could occur with NTL, which runs cable networks in the UK and Ireland. For its part, NTL declined to comment on the possibility, but speculation over the two firms combining their operation has been lingering for months.

It is generally thought that a merger between the two companies could create the only viable competition to satellite TV company BskyB and its ever-expanding subscriber base. A merger between Telewest and NTL would also establish a more formidable competitor to BT in the fixed-line consumer and small business broadband market.

Since the two companies have few overlapping operations, it seems unlikely that regulatory hurdles would hold back such a combination. Thus far, the overwhelming debt that the companies have accumulated has been the main obstacle to a merger, but with much of that debt now gone, industry talk of a merger between the two firms has resumed.

In its bankruptcy plan, NTL was divided into two distinct companies, NTL UK and Ireland, and NTL Europe. The former company also exchanged about STG7 billion in debt for control of the firm by creditors. A similar plan on the part of Telewst is set to be completed by the end of March, which will see STG3.5 billion of its STG5.3 billion in debts forgiven in return for handing control of 97 percent of the company to lenders.

In his update on Telewest's restructuring, Burdick said the plan should be completed in the second quarter. Burdick also said that Telewest could be the first cable company globally to turn cash-flow-positive. "Our plans show the second quarter '04 for cash-flow-positive, but I have the team focused on internal targets that move that up to the fourth quarter of 2003," he is quoted as saying in the Wall Street Journal.

NTL in Ireland, previously known as Cablelink, employs about 480 and it is the biggest cable provider in Ireland, dominating the Dublin market and along the east coast.

ElectricNews.Net

Telewest broadband customers offered digital photo service
12/02/2003
Editor: David Minto europemedia

On the day BT revealed that it is to bring the Yahoo UK Plus service to its broadband customers, cable operator Telewest has announced it is to link up with digital photography web services provider PhotoBox.

Telewest estimates that around half of its 250,000 broadband subscribers currently own a digital camera. PhotoBox will provide users to register for free with an initial 30Mb of space to upload and store images. Customers are able to order prints and personalised gifts (such as T-shirts and birthday cards), with storage space increasing to 100Mb after the first order.

Broadband snapshot shows cable most able


[Computer Buyer] 15:59

Oftel report shows cable staving off DSL as the access method of choice.
'It's pissing on ADSL,' is how John Moorwood, Consumer PR manager at Telewest Broadband, described it. And the latest figures from Oftel that provide a snapshot of UK Internet access as at the end of December 2002, suggest it is true.

The coverage of the broadband technologies is comparable - with 14m homes able to connect via ADSL, and 13.3m via cable. But of those 1,360,000 who have signed up for broadband, 769,000 took the cable option - around 57 per cent. And these figures do not include the numbers for Telewest's Blueyonder broadband, whose figures won't be released for another two weeks. So the cable percentage will definitely be higher still.



Oftel did not offer comment on the figures, however Telewest's Moorwood does expect the gap to close, given ADSL's increasing coverage of the population as more exchanges are enabled. 'We'll always be the urban warriors,' he said, 'so no doubt ADSL will catch up.'

The cable dominance is particularly notable given that they are now one of the more expensive ways to connect, as ADSL resellers slash prices in the clamour for custom. In Europe, ADSL connections are on a par with Germany in terms of price. But when you include cable services, the UK is second only to Sweden as the most expensive in Europe and the US.

The reason we're prepared to pay that little bit more for cable, according to Moorwood, is that the cable companies can guarantee the product they offer, as they own all the equipment, including the networks. An Oftel survey on ADSL connections, released at the end of last month showed that 50 per cent of subscribers had experienced problems with 'getting connected, with connections being slower than expected, or from poor helplines'.

As a nation, we are a single point behind the European average, with 42 per cent of homes having Internet access.

Matt Whipp

Telewest revival renews NTL merger rumours
[MacUser] 15:27

Telewest shares jumped 10 per cent yesterday after the company's managing director predicted that the cable operator would make a trading profit in the fourth quarter of 2003.
The news renewed suggestions that Telewest may merge with rival cable operator NTL in 2004. Talk of merger before now has always been overshadowed by the vast debts both companies had incurred whilst swallowing up the UK's cable franchises

However, Telewest is expected to complete the restructuring of its 5.3bn debt within the next four months, whilst NTL recently announced the completion of its own rescheduling package.

NTL and Telewest - under the Blueyonder banner - are the UK's two cable broadband suppliers. As they do not offer competing alternatives - they are each restricted to their own geographical areas - but face strong competition from the expanding ADSL network, monopoly regulators are not expected to block any merger.

Simon Aughton

Interesting article in the April edition of PC World showing how to share a bb connection within the home or small office.

Recently I re-jigged my own TWT account which covers telephone - TV and bb .... very impressed with overall service from the helpline and account staff - many hundreds of % better than this time last year. Included a curtsey call today to remind me of date when changes were taking place and to ensure I wanted to go ahead.

I had a chat about their latest promotional/pricing material and fed back some thoughts of my own.

As a shareholder and customer - very impressed.


ains

BT rivals question broadband figures

London, February 13 2003, (netimperative)



by Richard Agnew

BT was accused of "muddling" its broadband user figures today, after citing increasing penetration as evidence for potential renewed growth in revenues.


In its results for the last three months of 2002, the company posted a 37% rise in pre-tax profits to 521m, but saw its shares drop 4% this morning due to concerns over growth and a potential hole in its pension scheme.

The firm posted a less-than-expected 1% increase in sales to 4.7bn, but sought to reassure investors that "record broadband sales" in January of 25,000 per week, giving it a total of 650,000 end users at the start of this month, signalled renewed potential for growth.

Chief executive Ben Verwaayen said: "We generated our highest ever broadband sales, with in excess of 25,000 per week in January, launched a major market awareness campaign, reduced wholesale and retail connection charges and lowered the exchange upgrade trigger levels, demonstrating our strong commitment to broadband Britain."

But the company was accused by rivals of presenting a confusing picture by adopting overall ADSL market figures - its wholesale customer base rather than that of its ISP arms BT Openworld and BT Retail - as its main indicator.

Reacting to the results, Telewest Broadband MD Gavin Patterson said: "BT is muddling its numbers with a confusing combination of business and residential customers. It's using over 100 ADSL resellers to stake a claim in broadband Britain, but still trailing in our wake."

The overall ADSL market, including customers of BT and ISPs such as AOL and Freeserve, was 650,000 at the start of February, according to figures from BT Wholesale. But the overall broadband market, including ADSL, satellite, cable and wireless users, according to Oftel's latest figures, stood at 1.4m by the end of December.

Meanwhile, BT Retail, whose broadband user base is now believed to have reached around 100,000, posted an operating profit of 379m on sales of 3.3bn. BTopenworld, whose subscriber base stood at 244,000 at the end of December, posted a loss of 8m on sales of 75m. The two arms, which have since merged, have now gained over half of the ADSL market.

Elsewhere, BT's debt mountain was further reduced by 195m to 12.9bn, and has since been cut further by January's sale of the company's stake in Cegetel for 2.6bn.

However, the firm warned it could face a shortfall of up to 1.5bn in its pension fund, although an official valuation of the fund will not be calculated until May.

www.bt.com

News - February 14,2003
NTL & Telewest Snub 3.4Ghz Auction ISP

By:mark.j @ 9:57:AM - News Comments - Apparently neither of the UKs primary cable operators (NTL and Telewest) are likely to take any part in the government's May 3.4GHz broadband wireless auction:

"We've got enough on our plate at the moment," Tony Grace, managing director of Telewest Business, explained. Grace added that this decision won't necessarily prevent Telewest from offering wireless broadband services in the future.

"I think you'll see a lot of partnerships formed, as companies work together and share the initial investment in these broadband technologies," Grace added.

It is also understood that NTL has no plans to bid for a 3.4GHz licence. NTL has shown considerable interest in wireless broadband, and is currently conducting a trial of a consumer broadband service in London.

Despite this the government is still confident that the auction will be a success, much as they have been with all of their past attempts; didnt most of them fail? More @ ZDNet.

Sarah Arnott [13-02-2003] infomatics


Pair sign five-year deal for managed virtual private network
Building society Bristol & West has said that its 4.5m network upgrade will quadruple available bandwidth and underpin the move towards browser-based computing.
Bank of Ireland UK Financial Services, which owns Bristol & West, signed a five-year deal with network provider Telewest Business in November to supply a managed virtual private network using Internet Protocol.

The society is now rolling out the technology to 140 locations, which should take until April.

The ability to set quality of service levels on an application-by-application basis is a key benefit of the new system, according to Jon Lethbridge, head of IT strategy and planning at Bank of Ireland UK Financial Services.

"With the old system, everything that goes up and down the pipe is treated the same," he explained.

"But some applications are more important than others. For example, systems involved in savings transactions should take precedence over cashiers looking at the intranet.

"With the new service we can manage the traffic and make sure that key applications get a high quality of service, fitting the others in around them."

Being able to prioritise network traffic underpins Bristol & West's move towards browser-based computing, with multiple applications accessed through a standard browser.

"Browser sessions clogged up the old network very quickly, but this technology allows us to manage that traffic and deliver a better service," said Lethbridge.

The increased bandwidth will also allow the company to deliver images across the network.

Traditional paper forms, such as mortgage applications, can now be replaced by electronic versions which can be accessed from a central repository.

"The bottom line is that we have some new applications and some new styles of using technology, and the existing network didn't support them," explained Lethbridge.

The project is expected to pay back in 12 months by recouping on supplier costs. "We are managing to upgrade our capacity without extra cost," he said.

Legal action mulled over NTL BB cap
By Tim Richardson
Posted: 14/02/2003 at 15:19 GMT


Angry NTL customers are considering legal action over the cableco's decision to cap its broadband service.

The Register understands that lawyers are currently examining the possibilities of setting up a "group action" against the cableco.

The fact that a legal team is mulling court action shows the depth of feeling among customers and is a sure sign that the row over the 1 Gig/day capping is unlikely to fade away quietly.