will it ever recover to the 38p i paid for them??

Just wait for the China news !

Is there something you would like to share with us, moneyman? I also think the China JV, now presumably being pursued by their new man in Asia, Dr Ting Ho, is a very big thing, but have no view as toi when/if it may happen. Can you enlighten us?

sd

posted on advfn by
metex - 1 Sep'05 - 15:25 - 26169 of 26209

"The GROUP HISTORY....regarding product development....taken straight from Arx website....www.aeroboxplc.com....makes very interesting reading IMHO.

2005.

MAY

50,000 flights completed.

Aerobox starts trials in China.

Interim certification granted by Chinese Aviation Authority.

APRIL

Modified Aerobox starts Military trials.

MARCH

Insulated curtain Aerobox launched for Perishable market.

FEB

25,000 flights completed.

Kelvin Prototype starts airline trials in Japan.

JAN

First non-aviation contract signed."

Results ot today, rehashing old news mainly. $1.5m boxes contracted for sale H2. $1m fibre technology sales for H1 2006 - more upbeat, but still reflecting how tough it is to bring new ideas to market - cf. SEO and PGS.

SP took a tumble by 1p or so, now lots of healthy buyers out there topping up - which is where I'd be if my allocation was not already filled.

Lon-term - can you see this SP at 70p in 5 years time? If so, HOLD tight.

sd

interesting results. looks like the pricing issue will not go away and the "whole life concept" is still a hard sell. i remain a holder but need to see order flow increase. I am pleased they have shelved the refigeration boxes - focus on the main 35-40,000 box market first and then diversify.

rgds
PT

Looking at the 8 or 10 (?) US airlines in Chapter 11, and the w/wide difficulty of turning a profit, it's not surprising purchasing managers are not putting their heads above the parapet.

btw - BIG ommission this morning was no mention of Chinese JV. Either it's nowhere, or imminent and sensitive. I suspect the former unfortunately. Any gossip out there on this one?

sd

Good news at last, hope they can hold on to today's gain.
AeroBox Composite Structures ('ACS'), the US subsidiary of Aerobox plc has
agreed to a 5 year supply contract to supply the AeroBox AKE-SLD (solid bifold
door) for use by a Middle East airline. The contract has a minimum value of US$6
million and ACS will deliver ULDs with a minimum value of US$1.2 million in the
first half of each calendar year.

Hope you're right too, knocker1!

this is really really good news. no doubt they can now raise a bit of capital from the order flow but is a great win. i really want to see insiders now buying.

someone just took their foot of the windpipe again - better take some deep breaths while you can till it clamps back down again!

great news, nice order over nice long period. need a few more to bring it back to life fully. still got all mine - waht else can you do with them?

prop, guess you right about having to raise more money - at a heavy discount to the favoured few I imagine.

sd

Stocckdog why do you continually put down shares that have well and truly turned the corner ? This means that the company has been accepted and after the order from AA and also the repeat order from Virgin things are looking very very promising. You seem to have a fetish talking stocks down and profess that you know everything about anything !!

0238jr - 20 Oct'05 - 21:31 - 27603 of 27603


At least US$1.2m per year. Could well be a minimum of 1,000 boxes a year at $1,200 each.

1,000 boxes is 2.5 months capacity on a single shift (400 per month)- but they can go to a double or even triple shift if necessary.

Therefore there is still bags of spare capacity.

This provides a good solid base from which hopefull yet more orders will develop.

there is always something of a herd mentality in aviation circles- i suspect that initially many airlines were reluctant to even trial the new technology; arx did well to get over that hurdle, and the standard boxes (contra kelvin reefers) have passed all trials with flying colours

then there would have been reluctance to place a substantial order- but the saudi/ virgin/ aa orders cracked that resistance.

the final hurdle was getting long term commitment- any buyers would have need to be satisfied that arx could cope with the ongoing manufacturing requirements in the medium term- and now that reluctance has been overcome.

hopefully this will be a "dam bursting" time, and now that resistance at each level has gone many more orders will flow in.

while there is, as i say, plenty of capacity, there may even be a scramble to get a place on the delivery schedule.

not many of the names posting now were around in early 2004, when i first bought in, before the falling out with wmk.

at that stage, and when things were about to kick off between arx and wmk, and there must have been some tension in the air, john calcutt, ceo of wmk gave an adfvn interview in which he said that arx's biggest difficulty would be keeping up with demand


with a bit of luck the next 12 months might see that develop.

worth bearing in mind that in the early days, when there was a lot of excitement about the company, the mkt cap was in the 20 to 30 million range.

obviously there was a lot of hype, and the initial rise in sp was overdone, and there have been delays and disappointments since. but, i think that given the company has now shown the ability to cut it, in terms of significant penetration into the mkt, there could well be a new wave of excitement/ expectation interest.

with a couple more box orders, plus, a non-aviation deal if the rumours are true, we should be looking at a sp in the mid 20s by easter.

moneyman - funnyman! lol!

what are you on about? of course I know nothing, except what I see. what do you find negative about my inverted optimism - I'm loaded with these buggers and want them to go up. you just repeated what I said (but more long-winded) we need more orders to build on the ME airlines deal. Bags of spare capacity is just the problem - why is it spare?

I guess you still can't forgive me for my posts on IFM - now that business I do happen to know something about - still doesn't mean I'm right about the SP - that's what makes the market, your opinion against mine.

Anyway, relax, Moneyman, I bet I'm as down the hole on this one as you or anyone - I just believe one day we'll look back and wonder what the problem was. It's just another example of how hard it is to bring new products to market, especially as most of your main market is almost bankrupt.

btw - have you read any of my previous posts on this thread? anyone else agree with Moneyman's opening remarks about me? If I didn't know you were talking crap, I might even get quite offended. Do you need help, MM? I am sure there are counsellors for people who get over-invested in a share that falls through the floor. Try Debt Free Direct - I made some nice money on that one, but I'm out now.

what is the matter with moneymane,
he isn't ill and he hasn't a pain,
is it others' opinions that're posted again,
what is the matter with moneymane?

sd

As a neutral observer (not a holder of ARX as anything to do with aircraft in the past has always cost me money!) must lend support to SD, whose comments generally I find less tinted with rose coloured spectacles than most. Quick look at this suggests a good product which they presently cannot sell at high enough margin to get decent return, so sensibly seeking to reduce cost of manufacture. In the meantime cash is running out quickly and imo it seems likely they will need more - unlikely to benefit existing holders. Could be a bumpy ride - hope holders get a good landing in due course.

During 2005 production has been ramped up from 40/month to 400/month - in one shift. The company now has enough work to keep it stretched until the beginning of Spring. Will orders follow on at anything like the production rate? For the moment there is no evidence that this will happen.

For the moment margins are thin due to frequent changes of production to provide the three different kinds of boxes specified. Margins will improve as increased sales permit longer production runs.


ARX may as well be a early stage Bio company with clinical trial at phase II. The unavoidably long drawn out evaluation for a product needing 6 -12 months to pass through several stages of scrutiny. Each purchase must be preceded by testing for months in actual use to evaluate reduction in damage, ease of repair, handling characteristics, and therefore economic justification. After that come development and modification to incorporate client requirements: e.g. reducing
weight, adapting to forklift trucks, anti-pilfering etc. The Virgin re-order of 250 cases on 25 August '04 came a year after the first 100 deliveries. That was a significant timescale for investors to go by.. Of these boxes 150 were purchased on condition the weight could be reduced from 73kg to 68k. This kind of condition put with each contract, has accelerated improvement of the Aerobox but destroyed the profitability of these first few orders.

The two orders in August proved to be only a short-term fillip. The share price was
quickly brought back to earth by profit -taking and or Bear activity. Today the response to the good news was much more muted though the value of the order was x8 times as great. The Bears were bragging of their involvement and encouraging as many as possible to join in. That increase in the weight of money of course makes their success more certain. We doubt whether in the circumstance the deserved price rise can be sustained. Investors should press the FSA to take action to stop this abuse which threatens the inflow of money in start-up situation.

For more on shorting, naked shorting and CFD trading, and the damage these do to precommercialised companies. Follow the link

guys my in price is 5.5p (about 3 or four months ago)and if you remember i refused to buy all the way down until it got to do or die. now that i am in i am looking at building a bit of a sizeable stake (for me anyway).

The fact is at 5p this company would either run out of cash or not. problem was it had NO cash flow. So, the idea was, buy at that price and it they scored an order these would survive and thrive. Since then they have won Virgin and AA. Nice orders and secures survival but in terms of flow and security the mkt may see them as one off's and were lookiing maybe for future options of further orders.

Now what happens? They SECURE A FIVE YEAR ORDER - this means guaranteed flow, guaranteed margins and most importantly THEY WILL SURVIVE. However, they need some dosh which i think they can secure over these orders and then they can reach out for more orders etc...

as said above, acceptance is KEY. this have been accepted and proven and when the airline industry gets out this rut (oil price coming off) airlines will look to cost cut and that can be done via there valuable cargo numbers.

All i can say is that for those that know me, i am not a bullshit ramper/deramper wanker but someone who bases investments on a lot of research and timing. The fact is here that if you believe this company will survive then 7.5p downside is to me a great risk reward considering the potential market.

please please please DYOR....this is just one mans rant who happens to hold a few for hopefully all the right reasons.

rgds
PT

Llcom - shorting is the other side of markets and is a necessary evil in the developed mkts of the world. in as much as i may like a stock you have the right (if you can find the borrow) to take the other side of that trade.

this stock has only small shorts - i mean it is a scrappy name with a few holders and the borrow is strictly limited. trading over a few days maybe but hardly a bear stock like partygaming etc. CFD's and spreads have limits they can short and is almost too small for some of these guys anyway.

Llcom - if the company can survive, take the bears on and buy some. their downside could be as exponential as your upside and if they are involved a few buyers will see these get VERY squeezy.

15p by xmas (after a succesful placing)

Thanks everyone, moneyman, partridge, Llcom and Proptrade - great posts with serious research and intelligence behind them. I know proptrade would be first to admit his opinion means nothing in the face of Mr Market, but I LOVE hearing it, since I did not get in at 5p - think of that number and multiply by a little bit more than 2 ! However, I to believe in the product enormously, if only they can get enough cash to survive. I buy p/t's analysis that today's news probably allows them to raise more in the market to get through another 12 months.

If not we can liquidate the company and share the proceeds in specie - I'll need a box by the time my family find out how much I lost them! (Don't want to sound tooooo depressing, Moneyman!)

sd

Hi stockdog,

I understand your view. I once felt there was nothing wrong with shorting. In fact, I was hopeful on a number of occasions that I would be able to mop a few share up on the cheap. Company's are not in a position to Hoover up their own shares when subjected to shorting. Would it be ethical? I doubt it. In most cases, the companies targeted need their funds for more important matters. I for one would not be best pleased I found out that a company I had a position in was risking limited funds in the market in such a way.

Smaller entrepreneurial companies that need that final push before commercialisation, often need new funding, this can be made harder by shorting activities. At the very least, more shares may need to be issues to raise the same money, thus further dilution to existing shares. Another useful point make is the threat to small companies in the pre-commercialisation stage, when making losses, or still worse, when researching or designing, and without turnover are at their most vulnerable. Some will argue that short selling offers the astute investor a chance to buy at a discount after shorters have ravished a company.

When dealing with an innovating small cap with potential, a large short - using borrowed shares as in a spread bet or CFD,- can reduces the share price against the true reflection of the business, and sends out a false signal.

Fundamentally, there may be nothing wrong with the company. By that I mean the company is not about to go belly up; but has a recognised strategy, and that may be about to yield real shareholder value for those that have stuck with the company through its early stages. A relatively new trading strategy is fast becoming the norm for some. Seek out high percentage gainers, adopt the contrarian view, and short on the over bought opinion and ride it down.

The is more to shorting than the damage to smaller companies. Pension funds are at risk too. People have been forced to continue to work due to poor pension performance. Which I ironic when you think about it. Most of the shares borrowed by shorters, are held by institutions.

Sorry if this sound like a right old moan.

Looking cheap again folks.

Price moving up on heavy buying whats happening ?????