ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

Released today:

Marchpole Holdings PLC
12 October 2004

12 October 2004

Embargoed for 7.00am

Marchpole Holdings plc

(the 'Company')

Trading update

YSL and Boateng

Sales for the YSL and Boateng collections remain ahead of the Directors'
expectations following the half-year close, with the YSL Autumn Winter 2004
order book 70 per cent. delivered and the Boateng Autumn Winter 2004 order book
85 per cent. delivered to customers.

Jean-Charles de Castelbajac ('JCC)

Over 80 per cent. of the Autumn Winter 2004 customer programme has now been
delivered, giving an overall performance in line with Directors' expectations.

Spring Summer 2005 order books

The YSL and Boateng order books for this season now stand at 10 million
compared to orders for 8.5 million for Spring Summer 2004 season at the same
time last year.

The JCC order book for this season's collections currently stands at 3.4
million.

Overall performance

The Directors are pleased with the group's overall performance which continues
to be above their expectations.

Interim results

The Company expects to release its interim results for the six months ended 30
September on 9 November 2004.

For further information contact:

Marchpole 020 7908 7700

Greg Tufnell - Chief Executive
Justin Hampshire - Finance Director
Michael Morris - Executive Director

Shore Capital 020 7408 4090

Alex Borrelli / Simon Edwards

Buchanan

Tim Thompson 07710 718 649

This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange


Good to see a positive statement, seems like a few profit takers were selling today. Think the run up to the results will be very interesting.... Keep an eye on this one!

This is a cracker (MPH), i bought at 18p and thought it was to late then but look it go, i think it could a lot further yet. I am still in despite nearly 100% increase. It has more to go yet. Just waiting for the same to happen to pci, cyh, pet, sps(+40%) and bprg (+25%).

Recommend you also look at dana petroleum (dnx), directors buying today and signed a deal with woodside to explore four countries, new contracts in the north sea and increasing the uk output. Have a look and tell me what you think.

Must agree, i certainly sleep well having MPH in my portfolio.... Got in later then yourself, mid twenty's. Never the less very happy and expect more!
Sold out of sps last week and bought into PET, it was a toss up between PET and DNX! Currently at a loss with PET but i'm very positive about there future (contract wins etc) Very high risk, time will tell though!
Keeping a very close eye DNX, feel that i may of missed the boat slightly but will watch very carefully, lots of potential but not to sure about the short term.
Currently holding, ASC, MPH, PET and BNH.
Best of luck with DNX

ASOS Challenge team

See this as a democratic process rather than a benevolent autocracy (I have the benevolence but lack the largesse to go with it)! The posts made suggest the following 'guidelines' for the portfolio:

1. (as per johngtudor) The nominator advises when the share sould be sold (either because profits should be taken or because it emerges as a dog). This needs to be ratified by concurrence of two others from the nominating team. The nominator has first call on nominating a replacement but may choose to refer it to the team.

2. It is assumed that significant news will be posted on the appropriate bb - all EPICs now have their own thread. However, a trading recommendation, or pointer to significant news, is appropriate for this thread; also any sharing of individual portfolios.

3. The challenge is for nominated 'shares to double before ASC'. To qualify, the share should remain at more be at least double its opening price for a minimum of two weeks (specifically, at two weekly closes). It is anticipated that, at a minimum, the portfolio will be kept running until ASC has itself qualified. We should then consider whether a second challenge should be mounted, perhaps opening a separate thread for the first portfolio.

4. EWR to report each weekend on the porfolio performance (excluding 'nominator' column)- with analysis as appropriate by johngtudor and ptholden (the chart man!). If portfolio performs significantly ahead of market, report to be made to Shares editor.

OK? Happy to edit this text with any improvements suggested, with cross-reference from a new post.

The lines connecting recent ASC peaks and troughs, beloved of the chartists, meet at 62p in early November. Presumably a break-out from this triangle is significant?

Eric

Eric, Aye to your suggestions.

Talking to a chartist the other day, if ASC closes at .72p or over put your house on it.

capa

capa

My house is already on it! Took out equity release funds to start the portfolio (in Jan 2003; up 90%, looking to double that with this portfolio!)

Seriously, the earlier comment about a take-over makes a lot of sense. Whether it starts moving with a break above 72p, beating its previous high, or the expected bullish trading statement coming up to Xmas, the brand name is likely to be too attractive for one of the big players to miss. The time is likely to come when the founders will be quite happy to take their money. At what price? Probably not less than 100m, or 150p a share. What do others think - seems low to me?

Eric

Eric: I endorse your mail on ASOS Challenge Team Guidelines.

As already mentioned, I do think it is likely that ASOS will be taken over at some future time. Most other retail operators already have their hands full with high street business (just look at some of the sales figures now being published)!. Any dilution of that effort to start up an Internet Business will probably not be endorsed by the Board and in any case will take time. The really big boys are already operating in the on-line market and ASOS just loves the competition. That said, working out a takeover price is pure speculation...it is likely to be a mixture of earnings/profits and a premium on top if they do not already have a profitable Internet Business...it may even come from overseas...if, as we believe, ASOS begins to make succesful export sales. So it will be easier to estimate a likely figure afer the next results are out and the Analysts (we really need more coverage) start putting out the figures.

Now would I put my house on it.....that's a very risky and courageous decision to make but YES, I am that positive this SP will really motor in due course. John

johngtudor

Certainly earning your corn as our resident analyst! Couldn't agree more with your analysis. My own figure was really just a 'pessimistic view' to encourage our team to go overweight on ASOS if not currently the case. My own portfolio is now 2/6 ASOS; 1/6 each AZM, YOO, the 3 portfolio energy shares, the 6 other shares. Very impressed by the case in favour of each holding, so have ended up, like you, having the whole portfolio on board. Each will decide their own weightings, and may not take whole portfolio on board - would be interesting to know how others have balnaced their portfolio but will understand if that is a question too far!

Eric

25% Tesco bought 12/02 +52%
15% Nat Grid bought 04/04 +13%
15% Atkins bought 02/04 +8%
10% cybit bought 09/03 -1%
10% bprg 08/04 +21%
10% sps 10/04 +55%
10% mph 06/04 +90%
5% pet 10/04 -24%
5% pci 09/04 +4%
2.5% azm 02/04 -39%
2,5% iqe 06/04 +2%

other shares sold asc +40% trt -5% wpp -15% prm -25% capita +10% codascisys (my first buy back in the late 90's) +140% I then lost this money on bt and vodafone.

Eric - agree with and thanks for compiling the guidelines.
My portfolio is comprised of smaller amounts of more shares roughly as follows: 10-12% each : PDX,PET,ASC,BNH,HNR,and DFD (does anyone else have this one?)
4-5% each: SEY,PCI,SPS,PRE,MPH and FTO
I also have a small amount of TAD,ARX and ITH....and that's the whole sorry tale or at least it has been this week!

johngtudor, ptholden

Its helpful seeing a breakdown of other portfolios which have some common thinking with one's own and particularly to see the extent which our ASOS Challenge Portfolio is represented. As our 'resident authorities', it may be that you have some words of wisdom for Kivver and sandrew64 (and myself), plus anyone else who chooses to share. Given our collective optimism with regard to ASC, I would encourage Kivver to get back in and suggest that 20% is not too much and the share doubling can then have real effect!

Eric

Certainly looking to get back into asc before the xmas fever starts, will need to sell first as fully invested, but which ones to sell perhaps you could give some advice has to which shares wiil not grow as quickly as asc in my porfolio.

hello everyone! i can't believe thet this thread has gone so awol! the origional thread was about "ASC" and that's surely the way it should be! if we turn every thread into a competition of other share predictions then what is the value of the actual thread, surely an "ASC" thread should solely be about "ASC", etc. if we want a competition then let's sureluy create a thread on a seperate basis??? YEAH?:?:?

Eric et all,

Have been a little pre occupied this evening, my notebook keeps getting infected with a virus called 'spybot' or some such thing. Have deleted following Symantec instructions, but it seems to keep coming back. Driving me crazy, since I have upto date definations and a firewall, hopefully this time it has gone for good.

On the share front, I am now fully committed to CFA having purchased my last tranche but one today. As far as the remainder of the portfolio goes, I don't hold all of the 'portfolio' stocks, but do hold, CYC, CFP, SEY, (and SEO through my Share Club). I still have some funds available for another small investment or two, but am probably going to have a play with FOGL tomorrow as I am at home all day.

A quick word on ASC, as you would know I was somewhat pessemistic re ASC three weeks or so ago and I still believe it was teetering on the edge, (nothing whatsoever to do with the comapny prospects), but I now have to admit that the small storm has been weathered and I can now only see the upward trend continuing.

Will be interesting to see which way CFP go for the remainder of this week. Seems to be a few whispers that the SP is ready to make the next upward move, certainly, a case can be made from the TA to support that statement.

Regards

PTH

PS. Hopefully I will have time tomorrow to look at some charts instead of chasing computer viri.

cashcaptain

You have a case. However, 10 regular readers / contributors have worked together to put together a portfolio based on a potential to beat ASC to doubling. Each has its own thread so there is no need to post news on this thread, only perhaps to cross-reference to news on the relevant thread. It would not appear to be having a negative effect on comments on ASC on this bb as ASC is a common actual or potential component of each person's portfolio. The above contribution from PTH, for instance, and my previous two contributions, both discuss ASC information. After all, each of us is trying to weigh the level of investment in ASC against other holdings. However, if there is a concensus that agrees with you, we could certainly start a new thread.

Eric

Cash Captain, you have a fair point as does Eric. However, the 10 regular 'readers / contributors' are actually keeping this thread alive. When a stock is displaying significant upward movement, posts on BBs are in abundance, same can be said when on a downward trend. I would suggest that whilst trading sideways, which ASC has done for a while, (although now back on the way up), all goes quiet. So, despite not being dedicated solely to ASC, I am sure our 'conversations' have helped maintain ASC at the forefront of this BB. Don't underestimate the amount of 'lurkers' who will have seen ASC on their screen every day. Having said all that if others feel strongly, I am quite happy to move to a new thread. Wouldn't want to upset our occasional visitors.

PTH

Morning All

Just being looking at the Chart and looks like a fall may be in the pipeline. Trading at the upper levels of the Bollinger Bands. Just a guess, (I know, keep changing my mind!).

PTH

I very rarely contribute anything to threads but cashcaptain's comments are a bit unfair. I read ASC thread daily and I am sure there are hundreds like me who do. I have to thank you, EW Robson, ptholden, and the others,for making this one of the most interesting and valuable threads. So what if it deviates from ASC sometimes? It always gets back to the subject and in the meantime we have had some really helpful comments as to how it compares with other shares. It is very interesting to know what other shares the knowledgeable investors own and which ones to avoid - also doing our own research of course.

I bought ASC the first time around at 41p and made quite a good little profit. Then made the mistake of buying at 65p and waiting ever since for them to get back there. It is only your enthusiasm that the shares will rise that stops me worrying.

Keep up the good work all - it's rivetting stuff. Some threads for other shares have sunk to the depths and aren't worth reading anymore.

mysunshine

mysunshine,

Many thanks for your encouraging post, it's nice to know that at least one of the board's 'lurker' finds something useful in this thread.

Incidentally, I don't think you have made a mistake in buying at 65p. It would be fair to say that I am not a great fan of explosive rises in share prices and although this might mean I miss out, I also save some momey by not being sucked in at the top. I have made no secret of the fact that I believed ASC SP rose too quickly and that there would be a retrace at some stage. I have also stated that the fundamentals of the company and long term share value are good. So, if I were you I would not worry too much, 65p will, no doubt be attained once more, (and beyond), but it may be a bumpy ride on the way. All IMHO of course.

Regards

PTH

By the way, buy CFP so I can win this little competition, you won't be sorry. Ramp Ramp Ramp. LOL

Eric: Re an earlier point raised on Portfolio weightings - this is of course an important subject and there is a lot of published advice around that I would urge everyone to read. The No.1 priority is to make sure that whatever happens to a particular investment you are still a player the next day! By this I mean if a particular stock 'plunges' for whatever reason, and your investment is wiped out then you still have money around to continue investing afterwards. Many texts will suggest that no more than 10% is invested in any particular stock, and that is a good rule, personally I like to round up the share parcels to round numbers so I do not stick rigidly to the axiom. I have recently read that some of the experienced Fund Managers have up to 40% invested in the Oil & Gas Sector of the market because they see continued upside through the next quarter in the sector. They then allocate from that pool of money sums for individual stocks. For general growth funds that is a very high % investment in one sector. I mention this last point for those of us placing our money into teh Oil and Gas exploration stocks.

Re: The Portfolio's listed by a group of like minded and enthusiastic investors I will carefull go through the lists and give my comments for what they are worth shortly.

Re: ASOS I have several sets of application s/w that I am running on our selections and of course like everyone else, we all have our favourites. At this time my favourite s/w suite, apart from the minute by minute gyrations...is telling me that ASOS is building momentum from the current price and is consistent with a comment I made a week or so ago that sometimes it is very healthy for a stock to consolidate at a particular price before setting off for the next leg up! I have also found that a small purchase has moved the SP UP. A good sign.

ptholden: I agree on the Bollinger Band, but it could also mean that if the SP continues to rise it will push the upper envelope upwards!! Importantly the Kagi Chart is showing blue for the first time in a while. Another good sign!

John