will it ever recover to the 38p i paid for them??

As a neutral observer (not a holder of ARX as anything to do with aircraft in the past has always cost me money!) must lend support to SD, whose comments generally I find less tinted with rose coloured spectacles than most. Quick look at this suggests a good product which they presently cannot sell at high enough margin to get decent return, so sensibly seeking to reduce cost of manufacture. In the meantime cash is running out quickly and imo it seems likely they will need more - unlikely to benefit existing holders. Could be a bumpy ride - hope holders get a good landing in due course.

During 2005 production has been ramped up from 40/month to 400/month - in one shift. The company now has enough work to keep it stretched until the beginning of Spring. Will orders follow on at anything like the production rate? For the moment there is no evidence that this will happen.

For the moment margins are thin due to frequent changes of production to provide the three different kinds of boxes specified. Margins will improve as increased sales permit longer production runs.


ARX may as well be a early stage Bio company with clinical trial at phase II. The unavoidably long drawn out evaluation for a product needing 6 -12 months to pass through several stages of scrutiny. Each purchase must be preceded by testing for months in actual use to evaluate reduction in damage, ease of repair, handling characteristics, and therefore economic justification. After that come development and modification to incorporate client requirements: e.g. reducing
weight, adapting to forklift trucks, anti-pilfering etc. The Virgin re-order of 250 cases on 25 August '04 came a year after the first 100 deliveries. That was a significant timescale for investors to go by.. Of these boxes 150 were purchased on condition the weight could be reduced from 73kg to 68k. This kind of condition put with each contract, has accelerated improvement of the Aerobox but destroyed the profitability of these first few orders.

The two orders in August proved to be only a short-term fillip. The share price was
quickly brought back to earth by profit -taking and or Bear activity. Today the response to the good news was much more muted though the value of the order was x8 times as great. The Bears were bragging of their involvement and encouraging as many as possible to join in. That increase in the weight of money of course makes their success more certain. We doubt whether in the circumstance the deserved price rise can be sustained. Investors should press the FSA to take action to stop this abuse which threatens the inflow of money in start-up situation.

For more on shorting, naked shorting and CFD trading, and the damage these do to precommercialised companies. Follow the link

guys my in price is 5.5p (about 3 or four months ago)and if you remember i refused to buy all the way down until it got to do or die. now that i am in i am looking at building a bit of a sizeable stake (for me anyway).

The fact is at 5p this company would either run out of cash or not. problem was it had NO cash flow. So, the idea was, buy at that price and it they scored an order these would survive and thrive. Since then they have won Virgin and AA. Nice orders and secures survival but in terms of flow and security the mkt may see them as one off's and were lookiing maybe for future options of further orders.

Now what happens? They SECURE A FIVE YEAR ORDER - this means guaranteed flow, guaranteed margins and most importantly THEY WILL SURVIVE. However, they need some dosh which i think they can secure over these orders and then they can reach out for more orders etc...

as said above, acceptance is KEY. this have been accepted and proven and when the airline industry gets out this rut (oil price coming off) airlines will look to cost cut and that can be done via there valuable cargo numbers.

All i can say is that for those that know me, i am not a bullshit ramper/deramper wanker but someone who bases investments on a lot of research and timing. The fact is here that if you believe this company will survive then 7.5p downside is to me a great risk reward considering the potential market.

please please please DYOR....this is just one mans rant who happens to hold a few for hopefully all the right reasons.

rgds
PT

Llcom - shorting is the other side of markets and is a necessary evil in the developed mkts of the world. in as much as i may like a stock you have the right (if you can find the borrow) to take the other side of that trade.

this stock has only small shorts - i mean it is a scrappy name with a few holders and the borrow is strictly limited. trading over a few days maybe but hardly a bear stock like partygaming etc. CFD's and spreads have limits they can short and is almost too small for some of these guys anyway.

Llcom - if the company can survive, take the bears on and buy some. their downside could be as exponential as your upside and if they are involved a few buyers will see these get VERY squeezy.

15p by xmas (after a succesful placing)

Thanks everyone, moneyman, partridge, Llcom and Proptrade - great posts with serious research and intelligence behind them. I know proptrade would be first to admit his opinion means nothing in the face of Mr Market, but I LOVE hearing it, since I did not get in at 5p - think of that number and multiply by a little bit more than 2 ! However, I to believe in the product enormously, if only they can get enough cash to survive. I buy p/t's analysis that today's news probably allows them to raise more in the market to get through another 12 months.

If not we can liquidate the company and share the proceeds in specie - I'll need a box by the time my family find out how much I lost them! (Don't want to sound tooooo depressing, Moneyman!)

sd

Hi stockdog,

I understand your view. I once felt there was nothing wrong with shorting. In fact, I was hopeful on a number of occasions that I would be able to mop a few share up on the cheap. Company's are not in a position to Hoover up their own shares when subjected to shorting. Would it be ethical? I doubt it. In most cases, the companies targeted need their funds for more important matters. I for one would not be best pleased I found out that a company I had a position in was risking limited funds in the market in such a way.

Smaller entrepreneurial companies that need that final push before commercialisation, often need new funding, this can be made harder by shorting activities. At the very least, more shares may need to be issues to raise the same money, thus further dilution to existing shares. Another useful point make is the threat to small companies in the pre-commercialisation stage, when making losses, or still worse, when researching or designing, and without turnover are at their most vulnerable. Some will argue that short selling offers the astute investor a chance to buy at a discount after shorters have ravished a company.

When dealing with an innovating small cap with potential, a large short - using borrowed shares as in a spread bet or CFD,- can reduces the share price against the true reflection of the business, and sends out a false signal.

Fundamentally, there may be nothing wrong with the company. By that I mean the company is not about to go belly up; but has a recognised strategy, and that may be about to yield real shareholder value for those that have stuck with the company through its early stages. A relatively new trading strategy is fast becoming the norm for some. Seek out high percentage gainers, adopt the contrarian view, and short on the over bought opinion and ride it down.

The is more to shorting than the damage to smaller companies. Pension funds are at risk too. People have been forced to continue to work due to poor pension performance. Which I ironic when you think about it. Most of the shares borrowed by shorters, are held by institutions.

Sorry if this sound like a right old moan.

Looking cheap again folks.

Price moving up on heavy buying whats happening ?????

Look at the RNS, abit strange because I thought ARX feel out with Watermark previously about sales etc, would be a hell of a turnabout if this is the same watermark, any views???

yes very strange indeed.... Have watermark obtained an order for aerobox?

http://www.watermark.co.uk/

links

about us/press



For Immediate Release:

Contact:
Mr Russ Colbourne
Watermark Ltd
Office +44 (0) 208 6061300
E-Mail: russc@watermark.co.uk


Watermark Appointed Exclusive Middle East Agents for the AeroBox evolutionary Unit Load Device (ULD) following significant US$6million Contract


London November 3, 2005 Watermark Limited (www.watermark.co.uk) is pleased to announce that AeroBox Composite Structures (ACS), the US subsidiary of Aerobox plc (www.aeroboxplc.com), has appointed Watermark Limited, a subsidiary of Watermark Group plc, as the exclusive sales agent for AeroBox products within the Middle East region and parts of Asia. Watermarks appointment comes after successfully negotiating a 5 year supply agreement for AeroBox composite containers with an order value in excess of US$6,000,000.

Over the past 2 years the AeroBox ULD has been utilised by over 25 airlines around the world and has flown over 80,000 sectors resulting in less than 100 incidents of damage. Since receiving certification from both the UK Civil Aviation Authority and the US Federal Aviation Authority the cost saving containers have been bought by forward thinking and innovative purchasers in North America, South America, Europe, and the Middle East.

Watermark CEO, John Caulcutt, commented that "I am delighted to re-establish the opportunity of marketing the cost saving AeroBox containers, following various product improvements initiated by the new management team at ACS and we are confident of selling further AeroBox containers within the Middle East and Asian region".

Ray Gibbs, Group Managing Director of AeroBox plc, added that, "We expect Watermark to quickly increase the AeroBox ULDs in operational use. The solid bi-fold door container is specially targeted at the Middle East and Asia when compared to other AKE products in the ACS portfolio. Watermark have strong, recognised relationships within the airline community, and we fully expect this initial contract to be the first in a number of long term supply agreements in this region.

Notes to Editors
The AeroBox evolutionary air cargo and baggage container is the result of 10 years research and development. The AeroBox dispenses with a metal frame. It is made from Aeroplaz panels which are simply bolted together. The lightweight thermoplastic composite provides great strength, toughness and durability reducing the need for repairs and greatly extending the life and serviceability of the ULDs. Image Library available at: http://www.aeroboxplc.com/html/gallery/index.htm

AdieH
can find nothing could you point me in the right direction
Loadsa

12p on the way, ARX will have to announce it, they have been caught with there pants down

The order was stated in their RNS dated 26/10/05, although Watermark now acting as agents

"I am delighted to re-establish the opportunity"

It is the same Watermark. My reading is that the old management had a personality split with (old?) Watermark. Now there is new management( on both sides?) they are free to behave in a more adult fashion and capitalise on each other's strengths. Good decision, good management, good trrades today.

sd

ARE THEY WORTH BUYING AT 7.38

Nope, not worth buying at all, and this is why

Sorry chaps, there will be no RNS re the watermark deal, I got a response to the email I sent on Friday... so it was all piss and wind... Knowing your a naught boy..

From : ray gibbs
Sent : Saturday, 5 November 2005 10:24:49 PM
To : "'JOJN P'"
Subject : RE: shareholder Urgent question re Watermark

| | | Inbox


Dear Sir,

Our announcement covered the financial aspects of the contract to appraise
the market of a matter that was deemed price sensitive. We were advised that
the agency agreement is a normal business matter and not as such an
announceable event. Obviously the receipt of future orders will be a matter
to consider advising the market so that our financial performance can be
reappraised in light of new information that may effect our future trading
and subsequently the share price.

Ray Gibbs
Group Managing Director

doom and gloom

Shame everyone is missing out on this ! What action today....is there news on the way ?

Did everyone see the tick up last trades Friday, more action Monday !!! worth looking at first thing.

Yes!
A very obvious late buying run, but not a huge sum involved! Quite concentrated after 16:00.

Lets hope it was meaningful!


Fly by Night

Red