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InterMoly 35.4m MCap $750m profit per annum starting in 2.5 years time (IMY)     

Red Erik - 25 Nov 2005 18:11


http://metalsplace.com/metalsnews/?a=1414

The Malmbjerg deposit has been explored since 1954 by AMAX and other companies, and currently plays host to 147 diamond drill holes totalling 22,877 metres long with three underground adits totalling 1,329 metres. Galahad has reviewed all the previous data and is finalising its development programme. The inferred mineral resource stands at 118 million tonnes at 0.24% molybdenum sulphate and the orebody would support a 15-20 year mine life at a production rate of 15,000 tonnes daily. This would give the operation a break-even price of $4-5/lb molybdenum cash cost, and a total break-even cost of $8/lb. At a proposed rate of 22.5 million pounds per annum and at $30/lb molybdenum, this would generate roughly $500M per annum against a capital cost of $605 million forecast. All other things being equal, this would be throwing off cash within a short period of time


$500m is equivelant to 291m per annum
$750m is equivalent to 436m per annum

22.5m x $30 = $675m revenue
22.5m x $8 = $180m costs
22.5m x $22 = $495m profit per annum


IMY are only worth 35.4m, what price will they be in 2-3 years time, as they get to mining ?

"We are excited by the opportunities opening up for InterMoly. We expect significant gains in the value of the Malmbjerg project to accrue as it progresses towards the production stage."

BFS completion expected at the end of March 2006

Production could possibly be raised now that the resource is known to be 50% bigger(see latest RNS)
They will mine the highest grading areas first, 50% higher grade than the average, means around $750m profit per annum in the first year and a half
Price of Molybdenum might well go to $40 or even $50 according to some analysts, that would take profit into the $1Bn+ bracket for the first year and a half, without any rise in production


Measured and Indicated Resources of 217 million tonnes at a grade of 0.20
% MoS2 with an additional Inferred Resource of 12 million tonnes at a grade
of 0.15 % MoS2, using a 0.12% MoS2 cut-off grade


Higher-grade Measured and Indicated Resources of 33.8 million tonnes at a
grade of 0.28% MoS2, above a cut-off grade of 0.25% MoS2




"We are very pleased to report the resource upgrade at Malmbjerg to Measured and Indicated status. The new resource estimate further confirms the very large tonnage and grade of this world-class deposit and, encouragingly, the existence of a substantial higher grade zone. In addition, the new resource estimate increases the contained in-situ mineral resources at Malmbjerg by 50% from 630 million lbs to 950 million lbs MoS2 at the lower cut-off.

We expect the higher-grade zone to form the basis for initial mining of the deposit as part of the feasibility study being developed for the project. All sections of the feasibility study are currently underway. This is another significant step forward for the Malmbjerg project in realizing Management's objective to develop the project and create shareholder value." http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=14720

InterMoly owns 100% of the Malmbjerg project. The Measured and Indicated Resource estimates will form the basis for determination of the mineable reserves upon completion of the feasibility study scheduled for completion by 30 March, 2006. A scoping study carried out by Hatch earlier this year anticipated a production rate of 15,000 tonnes per day with a 15 to 20 year mine life.


$32 per pound times 950m pounds equals $30,400m mined over 15 to 20 years, a world class deposit indeed



booming prices of copper and molybdenum

http://www.mercopress.com/Detalle.asp?NUM=6748

Regarding molybdenum this year's average price is estimated to remain at 32 US dollars the pound, similar to last year, but double the average two years ago


Molybdenum prices have increased from $6.00( US) to the current price of $35.00( US) over the past 18 months.
http://www.howestreet.com/adanac/

Last RNS showing the upgrade of resources
http://www.companyannouncements.net/cgi-bin/articles/200511170700262572U.html

Official Website
http://intermoly.com/

AIM Prospectus here
http://intermoly.com/aimAdmission.pdf


An analysts view of the Molybdenum market
Now lastly before I return to the Coal Liquefaction aspect that gave inspiration for this report, you should realize that the global demand for Molybdenum rose by 7.2% in 2004 to 374 million lbs from 349 m/lbs in 2003 as outlined in a study commissioned by International Molybdenum PLC and performed by CRU Strategies Ltd. mining consultants. Further CRU states that conservatively Molybdenum demand thru 2009 will grow by 3.5% to 4.1% p/a and the projected demand will be up to 475 million lbs in the same year. They also (CRU) project a deficit in Molybdenum production in 2008 and as much as a 14 million lb deficit in 2009. The theory of the world entering a "Super Commodities Cycle" is supported by recent reports by Citigroup-Smith Barney (China - The Engine of a Commodities Cycle, March 31 /05) and Goldman Sachs (Metals & Mining March 21 /05) and US Energy (Oil March 30/05) and along with the likes of the renowned Jim Rogers I believe this super cycle in finite resources is well underway and will last for many, many years to come.

Remember Molybdenum IS the biggest percentage dollar gainer of ANY metal in the last 18 months, and we hear little but negativity from media and mining websites.

Over the last few days I have read of Chinese Molybdenum traders stockpiling product for the end quarter of 2005 in order to have supply.

Sept 2/05 a London Mining article stated this in part- "Prices of Mo alloys all rose on Friday as buyers in search of large quantities found that the tightness of supply that had characterized the market in the early part of the year has not lifted." End

Yes there is a bottleneck in Roasting facilities and it is having some effect on Mo price, but why is there a bottleneck? Because demand is outstripping world roasting facilities. Quite simple really! With 5-7% more demand projected by various industry participants, I'd say they better get busy building a lot more roasters, and bringing new Primary Molybdenum Mines in the world onstream or we may see $50.00 p/lb Moly in future.

China's Metals Info Network, ANTAIKE on Aug 19/05 says new overseas roasting facilities will not be operational until after 2007.

Albemarle Catalysts of Louisianna who use approximately 10 million lbs of Molybdenum p/a, stated in a recent report- "We expect a 5% yearly growth rate in certain catalyst sectors" and so with the peak oil events facing the world and new refineries coming onstream (in Saudi Arabia & China) and expecting two more refineries in China as well as others around the globe, Tar Sands Oil, Coal Liquefaction, drilling exploration coupled with drill steel use & pipelines etc, the demand for Molybdenum & Cracking catalyst should continue to grow as will the specialty steel demand. Molybdenum has gained a new place of stature in the world's insatiable demand for noble metals.

New Update: According to the latest report from BCC Inc. Research, www.bccresearch.com/environ/C166R.html they estimate that by 2009 the market for Environmetal and Energy related Catalysts will grow by an average of 12.8% P/Yr. This is far beyond previous industry estimates I have outlined. Molybdenum it would seem has a bright future indeed.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/reser092205.html





soul traders - 28 Mar 2007 12:28 - 47 of 63

And I've doubled my money :o)

By the way, are there any other holders out there?

soul traders - 28 Mar 2007 15:07 - 48 of 63

IMY Bid: 18p Offer: 18.25p Change: 1.625

canada1 - 28 Mar 2007 16:14 - 49 of 63

No there aren't any other holders, watched this get trashed whilst holding gla shares, which I promptly sold at 12p. Put it on my watch list (Alzheimer's)

micky468 - 28 Mar 2007 16:42 - 50 of 63

s-trader get out now this will drop back down to 11p by the end of next week look at the charts its should start soon they have lock in

soul traders - 29 Mar 2007 11:30 - 51 of 63

IMY Bid: 18.75p Offer: 19.5p Change: 1

soul traders - 29 Mar 2007 11:45 - 52 of 63

Micky, with all due respect, I have to ask, "What on earth are you on about?"

The SP has been rising due to an institutional shareholder, which has presumably done its homework regarding IMY's prospects, building a sizeable holding. There is also the possibility of a takeover, plus we should not forget that the moly project itself is shaping up nicely, with pre-feasibility study results expected shortly.

Could you explain why you think IMY is suddenly a "sell"?

soul traders - 29 Mar 2007 11:46 - 53 of 63

Sorry; posted twice.

micky468 - 29 Mar 2007 12:25 - 54 of 63

soul-trader sorry mate missed your post ok its like this fist of all 2007 Complete Pre-Feasibility Study and continuation of studies required for the DFS. The DFS itself will conclude in late 2008. Completion of the DFS will also include the delivery to site of some road building equipment and associated camps and supplies. This step will also include the establishment of a winter road from the port location to the plant site so that construction requirements can be fully evaluated.this all takes money and that will full on the shear holder ones they all buy high they will lock the door also have a look at the charts this shows the s/p way to high but this is my view i hope your Right and good luck

soul traders - 29 Mar 2007 16:58 - 55 of 63

Micky, thanks for your explanation, and I see where you are coming from. However, I don't agree that the need for more funds will necessarily be all bad.

My view is that IMY has so far been greatly undervalued, so I think that the emergence of figures such as Feasibility Studies and also of news regarding progress towards production is going to provide a significant lift to the share price. The company will then have the option of raising funds via a share placing, borrowing from a bank, or issuing bonds of some kind. They may also decide to partner with a larger company in a joint venture in which they will offer the newcomer a percentage deal in return for the cash with which to carry out the construction you talked about.

The increase of the number of shares in issue may be inevitable, and nobody likes a dilution, but I don't see the company raising all of the funds it needs in this way. My bet would be on some kind of mixture of bank debt plus the issuance of convertible bonds.

With a claimed 560 million pounds (that's "lb" not "") of molybdenum in the ground at Mjalmberg, IMY has a huge resource on which to draw and when they get the BFS (bankable feasibility study) published, that will provide a huge incentive for banks and institutional lenders to get involved.

The one thing that needs to be watched, in my opinion, is the timescale involved, but with molybdenum prices still riding high (don't ask me how high; I haven't been able to find a quote) and IMY historically undervalued, I see this stock as having a lot more potential over the next couple of years.

The other thing to mention is of course the takeover bid. Clearly, if IMY is bought up, presumably it will be by one of the major players which will also have the cash to fund development, but where that leaves IMY's shareholders is another thing altogether.

soul traders - 29 Mar 2007 16:59 - 56 of 63

And talking of shareholders, RAB is at it again:

2. INTERESTS, SHORT POSITIONS AND RIGHTS TO SUBSCRIBE


(a) Interests and short positions (following dealing) in the class of relevant
security dealt in (Note 3)

Long Short
Number (%) Number (%)

(1) Relevant
securities 12,495,000 (9.13%)

(2) Derivatives (other than options)

(3) Options and agreements to purchase/sell

Total 12,495,000 (9.13%)

3. DEALINGS (Note 4)


(a) Purchases and sales

Purchase/sale Number of securities Price per unit (Note 5)


Purchase 425,000 GBP 0.1762

soul traders - 29 Mar 2007 17:01 - 57 of 63

IMY Bid: 19.75p Offer: 20.5p Change: 2 676,000 traded today.

canada1 - 30 Mar 2007 08:11 - 58 of 63

10.68p!

cynic - 30 Mar 2007 08:17 - 59 of 63

presumably this drop reflects of the successful bid just made for the company ..... i see GLA had a pretty hefty holding in IMY ...... have never trusted that management and it crosses my cynical mind that the shareholders may have just been mugged again

micky468 - 30 Mar 2007 08:42 - 60 of 63

cynic i told them to sell the charts showed s/p at 11p what did they get 10.68p
i would never trusted that management.but i have got shear in (GLA) and they will make money .................long

cynic - 30 Mar 2007 09:23 - 61 of 63

good luck with GLA ...... week mold fish smells almost as sweet

soul traders - 30 Mar 2007 10:36 - 62 of 63

I'm out at 15.5p - 80% profit!

Thought 10.68p was a derisory offer considering the progress the SP had made in the meantime, but anyway, took my profits and ran :o)

Thanks to all contributors - it's been fun! Anyone who still has an appetite for mining might want to put RDG on his/her watchlist.

Soul out.

driver - 30 Mar 2007 12:01 - 63 of 63

Well done to micky468 he got that right on the button.
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