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MOS International: (a new thread) Oil Engineers on the turnaround (MOI)     

chad - 12 Apr 2005 16:42

Now that we all know what the prospects for MOS are i.e. damn good, thought I'd get a new thread going and just highlight MOS' attractions for any new investors.

Key highlights:

* Significant progress made, rationalisation programme almost complete

* Acquisitions integrated well

* International marketing network established

* Record order books, enquiry levels high, several new customers won

* Recent Director buys

From the Chairman's statement:

Outlook

Over the past year the management team has extended the product range, put in
place in-house manufacturing, rationalised the existing business and greatly
expanded the marketing effort, opening up significant new markets to MOS
products. Once the acquisitions have been fully integrated MOS will offer a
wider product range to a broader market and have a much reduced cost base. We
have record order books, we have attracted major new customers and we are
targeting new markets, worldwide. Overall, we have made good progress and the
outlook remains extremely positive.

Trading Update

MOS International PLC ('MOS'), the oilfield services company, announces that
trading is in line with market expectations. TURNOVER FOR THE YEAR TO 31st MARCH 2005 IS EXPECTED TO BE CIRCA 10M COMPARED WITH 1.05M IN THE YEAR TO 31st MARCH 2004.

MOS currently has an order book in excess of 7m for delivery prior to the year
end.

The recent acquisitions have integrated well, the rationalisation programme at
MOS is almost complete and that at Ansell Jones will be completed in this
financial year.

Tender and enquiry levels remain high and the Board is positive regarding the
future. Significant progress has been made and the business is well on the road
to recovery, with turnover forecast to show a further considerable increase, in
the next financial year.

On a turnover of 10million with a profit of say 1million, this company is on a P/E ratio of just 8 (market cap being around 8million at present). This company has been overlooked by the institutions and investors alike and is due a big re-rating soon IMHO. DYOR as usual.

Chad.

Sequestor - 29 Jun 2005 15:50 - 475 of 890

TN_MEvicundies.jpg


not all of them bos`

bosley - 29 Jun 2005 16:16 - 476 of 890

L%2002%20Jo%20in%20stockings.jpg


i was thinking more along these lines, seq.

Sequestor - 29 Jun 2005 16:21 - 477 of 890

aye , can`t argue that one

stockdog - 29 Jun 2005 16:42 - 478 of 890

Bos - is that the MIL? Can we meet?

Stock(ing) Dog

Sequestor - 29 Jun 2005 16:48 - 479 of 890

the mother in law broke up my marriage , she was old , but had great suspenders

lol

bosley - 29 Jun 2005 16:53 - 480 of 890

down boy! down!

bosley - 29 Jun 2005 16:56 - 481 of 890

anyway, what the bleeding hell is going on with MOI? i thought things were looking good for the run upto results? mr owl, are you still confidant? chrissie, (that pic is how i imagine you), what is your take on the falling sp?

The Owl - 29 Jun 2005 17:08 - 482 of 890

Beware,we may have visitors!! Just for you guy's and as you've asked, this is where I'm at (email sent today). Yes I still believe in the company and have sold none of the shares bought this year at prices between 0.71 & 0.44p. Yes I hope to buy more shares 'carefully' at the 0.35/0.40p mark, BUT in the interests of openness, see sanguine email to Bankside, copied PW below:

NB1 I realise not everyone may agree with share consolidation point. It can reduce the sp at the outset, however if released alongside annual results, it would have a very good effect

NB2: Realise we're not all be 'positive, balanced individuals..' - benefit of the doubt! Important also to make own decisions. AIM is risky...


Wordy Email...
-------------------------
The web-sites advfn.co.uk & moneyam.com are worth a look to see how recent announcements play out in Investors minds. Despite occasional cynicism, these are usually positive, balanced individuals who have done their research, and felt MOS ought to do well. They are MOSs only investors institutions seem now to be bailing out.



It would appear the PR in terms of ordering of announcements is not all it could be. Messages/signals from MOS are not getting through or it could be Investors have grown weary of what should be a rising share price in the current oil climate alongside MOSs competitors. Either way, the future (at least as far as the share price for MOS) does not look good regardless of potential profits. This leads to a cynicism for future announcements UNLESS they are substantiated at the time. Past share price reactions govern future likely movesMOS always falls lower shortly after apparent positive announcements has been the norm.



Minuses:

- Elenora sold holding despite new good news. Adds significantly to huge share overhang, and is not good for confidence. No reason to believe others will not follow suit now. The Larkins (though close to the company) sold all their shares this year.

- The 0.60p point is now technically a heavy resistance point with most investors waiting to sell out break-even. Above this, the 0.80p-1.20p range will also be heavily sold into

- Directors have few shares in MOS. The last relatively small purchase was in January. Does not back the good news emanating in announcements. A c10m turnover for 2004, c15m for 2005 should translate to profits and give reason to buy. Paul Findlay has not bought MOS shares, nor has PMHH moved positively on MOS news. The CCO price has fallen since the JV was announced

- There have been no new institutional buys

- The web-site remains out-of date. This is the shop window (even for an engineering company) for both investors & customers and does not paint a company on the turnaround. Brendan Larkin remains the Marketing director on www.rigzone.com

- The JV does not mean MOS will not need to dilute the share price again. On the contrary, PMHH, Ansell Jones, MOS may all need subsidising.

- There appear to be few significant orders despite the record order books in 3 parts of the business

- There have been no profit forecasts at all from the broker yet a 10m turnover would suggest this could be helpful

- Rarely is MOS news seen in Yorkshire Post nor picked up in Londons Evening standard for the City AIM investment community.

- The MOS brand is dated given Miko is now irrelevant to MOSs diversified product set

- The share price is at its lows for 3 years, and looks set to move into the 0.20p-0.40p range. By that point investors who have been with the company for 4 years will have given upthey may sell into rallies.

- Taken together, sadly this would suggest the company is being run by Directors for Directors a theme picked up on the Investor bulletin boards



Possible pluses:



- MOS would appear to be potentially an excellent company in a high demand industry with experienced technical Management.

- There is a high respect for Mr Wood who has singularly (it seems) addressed nearly all the key issues in a very short period

- Opportunities exist in the oil industry, ports (heavy building internationally), road/rail laying and many other applications for MOS kit

- Cost cutting appears nearly complete

- The results may show a profit this year



Given the situation with the share price, there are few things which could turn things around. It is extremely hard to take a sub 1p share price seriously. Institutions are normally not interested till capitalisation exceeds +100M.



The share price could possibly be turned by:

- Director share buys to support their statements

- A 1:10 or 1:100 share consolidation to reduce the huge share overhang (this worked for both Matrix and Healthcare Enterprise last year). A 50p share price is far more attractive and will move towards the 1 mark quicker than a 0.50p one even if there is some initial selling.

- Large orders from existing clients such as CNOOC, or Nexen as well as traditional businesses such as MOD, Rail/road, Ports

- A take-over this theme has been discussed on bulletin boards as being the best option for MOS. Given Oil services demand, the lack of one suggests confidence is not there in the likes of Abbot to take on MOS.

- A fresh web-site (or removal of the existing one with a site under construction please contactmessage. It tends to put off both investors & customers.



In summary, there seems little being put out to Promote MOS successfully. The good sounds of news deals are swamped by the need to raise more cash, the record order books show few new significant orders. MOS could work in JV arrangements internationally with natural competitors there appears to be little activity despite demand. Little is known of existing progress from a financial perspective. Investors are therefore left with just the annual report, turnover guesstimates, the chart & MOSs competitors on which to base investment decisions. Sadly many are/have now abandoned ship mentally if not physically given the disappointing returns on what should have been an excellent investment in the current financial climate.



I offer this as a snapshot of prevailing Investor views. A more comprehensive view will be formed by visiting the above mentioned web-sites free bulletin boards.
--- END

bosley - 29 Jun 2005 17:48 - 483 of 890

good find, owl. i think pretty much everything got covered!!

The Owl - 29 Jun 2005 18:01 - 484 of 890

...unlike your picture, Bosley!. Is she the new Mos sales rep??

Sequestor - 29 Jun 2005 18:12 - 485 of 890

so sell basically then.

stockdog - 29 Jun 2005 18:14 - 486 of 890

Owl, I think I saw her first - after Bos that is, if you don't mind. Form an orderly queue now, please.

woof woof!

sd

The Owl - 29 Jun 2005 19:09 - 487 of 890

Seq. Why sell? Not for me - no. MOS need (though) to address the PR issues - they seem unaware of investor sentiment, and impressions of the company. They're engineers, however impressions matter these days. Between you and me, I'm aware both web-site & name are being 'reviewed'. The sp could go anywhere before results come out. However, even at 0.25p it can rally fast - see 2003. Bad news has mainly been the need for money to expand and/or for working capital - you can't sell something you haven't built.

It's ok SD - Owl can't see properly. Need new specs.

Sequestor - 29 Jun 2005 19:24 - 488 of 890

no not me either- yet, just added up the pros, and cons. and SELL seemed sensible,
but hey- sensible ? MOI?

stockdog - 29 Jun 2005 19:53 - 489 of 890

I thought her s-pecs were fine!

Have just sent a long, tedious response to Mr Padley of Bankside, since I feel disatisfied with his rather patronising response, especially in light of continued decline of SP. If anything interesting comes of it, I will post it here - preferring not to bore you with it otherwise,



Sequestor - 29 Jun 2005 20:14 - 490 of 890

Mrs.Trellis of Fencehouses has jumped,erm, from the fence, and has opined that
her landing, sans a left knicker gusset has left her somewhat de-fenceless, so to speak,a free half- Brazilian was not expected,nor indeed inspected.
She is now holding, several pieces of undergarment, which must remain anonymous.
However holding she is!!!!!

The Owl - 29 Jun 2005 22:41 - 491 of 890

Markusantonius: Yes - still worth a punt IMO(though personally I'd wait till selling stops - and 'might' after last week go to 0.25p unfortunately. I'm expecting to increase holding at 0.30-0.40p - carefully). Depends on time horizon though, and lack of 'bad' news. MOS for me is medium to long term hold i.e. don't expect to sell before Mch 06 earliest - but DYOR. IMO MOS is still doing things 'right' - but has lots of presentational issues, and with a 0.40p!! sp is hard to take seriously - hence share consolidation would be good. You're either in or out on this one. Trying to get in when MM's mark up the price is tricky, and virtually impossible to time the first major move (which could be as high as 1p).
SP target's? Hopeless at those e.g expected SEO to get to 14.75p and sold, hit 30p, now 23p (ouch!). If MOS is 5M in profit for 2004, then could perhaps hit 8-10M profit for 2005. If so, SP could be 1.5-2p by Sep 06 with good order flow.
As with all AIM stocks important to DYOR, and decide own risk profile. As a rule AIM shouldn't occupy more than 15% of investments (because of spreads & liquidity issues as seen here).

ptholden - 29 Jun 2005 22:51 - 492 of 890

Owl

Still watching MOI with interest, hence my post. Where do you get the idea that the company will generate 5M profits for 2004? Seems very ambitious.

pth

markusantonius - 29 Jun 2005 22:51 - 493 of 890

Thanks, Owl, for your balanced perspective. Very open.

Will monitor for now, I think.......

chrissie - 29 Jun 2005 23:44 - 494 of 890

Bosley

Yes I look exactly like that maybe a few pounds heavier (in all the right places mind!) and maybe a few years older. But you know what they say "many a fine tune played on an old fiddle"...

Back to MOI..As soon as we get good news there is always a flurry of buying so I should imagine that when the results are published and we have some director buying we will be back on track. I still think good things will happen this year and I also think that if the joint venture produces a couple of huge contracts (which is not inconceivable in this climate and with PWs contacts) then the MOI share price will go up good and proper. I presume one or two contracts were lined up before the JV was signed and should soon be in the bag. I still have every confidence in MOI but I'm glad that Stockdog and Owl are letting the directors know exactly how we all feel about the falling sp. website, etc, etc.

The next 3 months should be most telling!

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