www.blackrockoilandgasplc.co.uk
www.vsaresources.com
www.oilbarrel.com
Presentation from Thursday 6th July 06 can be seen on oilbarrel !


Monterey appraisal well suspended pending Wintershall evaluation. 1/12/06
BLR and Kappa in dispute.
BLR to meet with Kappa within next two weeks 1/12/06

article in todays mage flow rates should increse over the coming months at Arce 4 well!.

Topped up again yesterday...the lowest I've been able to get in at over the past yr or so I've been buying....onwards and upwards... can only go up from here with all the good news due...(apart from the odd blip!)

Skyhigh good buy.
Steaming equipment now in Columbia according to email received from Blr to another bulletin board member so should be onsite soon!

Rutherford,
Yes, I hope it'll be a "good buy" and not goodbye!

Ruth, doesn't the steam have to be deployed and then left before testing flow rates? If I remember correctly on SER website theres info regarding Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage. Which implies steam deployed and then left for oil to move to base of well before flow testing can be carried out to see if its worked. Website below if your intrested in more info on this process. Would imagine temperatures approximatly the same in both areas of usage and humidity. Your thoughts appreciated...

http://www.seftonresources.com/assets/thermal_oil_recovery.asp

Very good link Explosive:SEY


I believe BLR (Kappa) will use SAGD although BLR have not stated as far as I am aware although they are saying they will be producer this year so assume it will take a couple of months for the steaming to take effect and they have mentioned potential increase in production will be 5 to 10 times initial rates although in their last RNS they were more conservative saying 3 to 5 times. Arce 2 I believe was mentioned as the one they will use to pump the steam down and then will be producing from the other 3. Supposed to be drilling 5 more on Arce before year end.
8 wells producing an average of 30 bbls /day and with steaming increasing it 5 fold we could be looking at 1200bbls/day. 50% belonging to BLR at say $40 dollars per barrel:
600@40 =$24000
365@24000= $8,760,000
Obviously costs would have to deducted for pipelines etc.but $6000000/yr. from Arce looks good in comparison to BLR,s value.
I believe they will drill a lot more wells on Arce if steaming is doing the trick and I have read that when the field is fully commercial they anticipate 50% of 3200bbls/day (2 years time).
Would add to all this that if they hit gas on Monterey (North Sea) in the next couple of months I believe that is the company maker.
Good luck.

I agree your assessment, Rutherford. It's all (hopefully) just a question of being patient.

Soul: been a lot of patience required with BLR but now should pay dividends!

Rutherford, I have to laugh at your unfortunate choice of words as I think that dividends are the last thing that BLR is going to be paying in the near term, HOWEVER some serious capital growth is on the cards!

My apologies; I have university a degree in Pedantics :o)

I wondered who would comment on that!

I have university a degree in Pedantics

and maybe a touch of dyslexia! LOL

Don't want to sound negative however I think 5 fold for steam production is a little high. There have been previous cases where steam has been used and no increased output has been seen. In others it only adds a small 1.5 multiplier to output. Here though I suppose as Kappa foot the bill any gain is an advantage to the BLR sp. Very interesting times ahead and plenty of equity growth knocking at the door!

Explosive, I dont believe kappa foot the bill. It is all split equally with BLR.
I think regarding the steaming it would depend on whether they HUFF and PUFF or SAGD. I dont think BLR has clarified that but I may be wrong there. I think if it is SAGD there is no reason to doubt the figures they are quoting. DYOR

SOUL
YES WAIT, I WILL. I WILL KEEP WATCHING THE MANAGEMENT THOUGH. SO FAR IT IS HEADING THE RIGHT DIRECTION. I REMEMBER CASPIAN HOLDINGS (CSH), I WAIT, AND WAIT, AND IT DID NOT LET ME DOWN, IT WENT FROM 8P, ZOOM TO 30. BE LIKE A HUNTING CAT. BEST LUCK.

Morning all. In case you haven't seen, good news from RIFT - could do a VOG, but PDYOR.

Hi Rutherford, just checked the Arce 2/3/4 fields and oil is heavy and sticky at 13.5api which is good for steaming. Any news with regard to Arce 4 drilling yet? Once drilled Arce 4 will be flooded left and then test pumped from 2 & 3. I expect if a sucess theres also a possibility that an addition well could be drilled or even steam flooding alternated between wells to ensure a good api and flow rates. The only other question here is the cost of production, do you have estimates or figures? We know theres a pipeline already running though the Arce site that can be used to take oil to refinery so transport covered. Have yet to see any prices on the cost of steaming....

None of this is doing the share price much good.

It is at a two year low and looks like going lower.

That's known as a "screaming buy", Haystack.

Or a 'beware' - it's going lower!

explosive: Arce 4 has been drilled and produced 30 bbls/day.
If you look at the header here you will see the potential wells to be drilled between now and new year. As far as I believe the steaming equipment is in the process of clearing customs and heading to site.
Monterey in the North Sea should have a rig onsite within the next 3 weeks.
My own view is that BLR have turned the corner and have massive upside potential and very little downside and once the market in general believe they have put all their problems behind them the share price will move up. The next year I am hoping will reward my patience with this share and if not I will be out.
Production from the Arce field will be relatively cheap due to close proximity of pipelines and a few days ago I posted a very rough estimate of earnings from Arce. I used $40 a bble on that estimate as it is heavy oil and I believe that is roughly the price they will receive. Should be possible to check that out with what other companies are getting in that area. Have a look at the presentation on oilbarrel.com from BLR the other week. Well worth a read.

Rutherford, Explosive, I believe that WH Ireland's cost estimate was $20 per barrel for the Arce heavy oil. The market price of $40 is correct; I seem to remember that this was established a few weeks ago.

Am looking forward to Monterey: if that comes together then it should bring in $100 million worth of assets net to BLR. NPV could add between 0.5p - 1p to the share price. Taken together with Arce/Baul production that would be a big step in the right direction.

A quote from one recent news article (oilbarrel.com, 02Jun2006, "Black Rocks Prospects Brighten With The Development Of Its Colombian And North Sea Assets"): "The company is hoping to book reserves of between 2.5 million to 10 million barrels of oil equivalent before the end of 2006 from Arce, Baul and Bukhara fields . . . . Assuming each barrel is worth US$10 in the ground this means a value of US$25 million taking the low figure. Compare this with the companys market capitalisation of 6.4 (US$11.9) million and it all looks good for Black Rock, providing of course it comes right."

Add Monterey to Colombia and that should be worth at least 1p, maybe more. Bukhara would of course be the company maker (potential NPV 70 million!!), and there is a lot still to be explored on the Colombian licenses which may provide further leads in the future.

Unless Arce and Monterey turn out to be monumental disasters, this one is well worth hanging on to, IMHO.