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Presentation from Thursday 6th July 06 can be seen on oilbarrel !


Monterey appraisal well suspended pending Wintershall evaluation. 1/12/06
BLR and Kappa in dispute.
BLR to meet with Kappa within next two weeks 1/12/06

Don't want to sound negative however I think 5 fold for steam production is a little high. There have been previous cases where steam has been used and no increased output has been seen. In others it only adds a small 1.5 multiplier to output. Here though I suppose as Kappa foot the bill any gain is an advantage to the BLR sp. Very interesting times ahead and plenty of equity growth knocking at the door!

Explosive, I dont believe kappa foot the bill. It is all split equally with BLR.
I think regarding the steaming it would depend on whether they HUFF and PUFF or SAGD. I dont think BLR has clarified that but I may be wrong there. I think if it is SAGD there is no reason to doubt the figures they are quoting. DYOR

SOUL
YES WAIT, I WILL. I WILL KEEP WATCHING THE MANAGEMENT THOUGH. SO FAR IT IS HEADING THE RIGHT DIRECTION. I REMEMBER CASPIAN HOLDINGS (CSH), I WAIT, AND WAIT, AND IT DID NOT LET ME DOWN, IT WENT FROM 8P, ZOOM TO 30. BE LIKE A HUNTING CAT. BEST LUCK.

Morning all. In case you haven't seen, good news from RIFT - could do a VOG, but PDYOR.

Hi Rutherford, just checked the Arce 2/3/4 fields and oil is heavy and sticky at 13.5api which is good for steaming. Any news with regard to Arce 4 drilling yet? Once drilled Arce 4 will be flooded left and then test pumped from 2 & 3. I expect if a sucess theres also a possibility that an addition well could be drilled or even steam flooding alternated between wells to ensure a good api and flow rates. The only other question here is the cost of production, do you have estimates or figures? We know theres a pipeline already running though the Arce site that can be used to take oil to refinery so transport covered. Have yet to see any prices on the cost of steaming....

None of this is doing the share price much good.

It is at a two year low and looks like going lower.

That's known as a "screaming buy", Haystack.

Or a 'beware' - it's going lower!

explosive: Arce 4 has been drilled and produced 30 bbls/day.
If you look at the header here you will see the potential wells to be drilled between now and new year. As far as I believe the steaming equipment is in the process of clearing customs and heading to site.
Monterey in the North Sea should have a rig onsite within the next 3 weeks.
My own view is that BLR have turned the corner and have massive upside potential and very little downside and once the market in general believe they have put all their problems behind them the share price will move up. The next year I am hoping will reward my patience with this share and if not I will be out.
Production from the Arce field will be relatively cheap due to close proximity of pipelines and a few days ago I posted a very rough estimate of earnings from Arce. I used $40 a bble on that estimate as it is heavy oil and I believe that is roughly the price they will receive. Should be possible to check that out with what other companies are getting in that area. Have a look at the presentation on oilbarrel.com from BLR the other week. Well worth a read.

Rutherford, Explosive, I believe that WH Ireland's cost estimate was $20 per barrel for the Arce heavy oil. The market price of $40 is correct; I seem to remember that this was established a few weeks ago.

Am looking forward to Monterey: if that comes together then it should bring in $100 million worth of assets net to BLR. NPV could add between 0.5p - 1p to the share price. Taken together with Arce/Baul production that would be a big step in the right direction.

A quote from one recent news article (oilbarrel.com, 02Jun2006, "Black Rocks Prospects Brighten With The Development Of Its Colombian And North Sea Assets"): "The company is hoping to book reserves of between 2.5 million to 10 million barrels of oil equivalent before the end of 2006 from Arce, Baul and Bukhara fields . . . . Assuming each barrel is worth US$10 in the ground this means a value of US$25 million taking the low figure. Compare this with the companys market capitalisation of 6.4 (US$11.9) million and it all looks good for Black Rock, providing of course it comes right."

Add Monterey to Colombia and that should be worth at least 1p, maybe more. Bukhara would of course be the company maker (potential NPV 70 million!!), and there is a lot still to be explored on the Colombian licenses which may provide further leads in the future.

Unless Arce and Monterey turn out to be monumental disasters, this one is well worth hanging on to, IMHO.

Good afternoon, I have read several posts, in which the lack of "traditional Management structure" has been seen as a possible sign of "weakness"! Is this subject a problem, at this point, do you think? Rgds.

Oil coming out of the ground is what's going to do it for the share price, Jnknill. Others might have a more sophisticated view, but I see BLR as having completely turned itself around since a couple of years ago, and I don't think that the management is going to be a problem.

Regal Petroleum of a year or two ago is the place to look if you want lousy management.

Soul Traders, At this stage it doesn,t bother me either but with the progress which most of us expect a move toward "good Management" is going to be a must. This will be in BLR interest, let,s face it Ivan will need a sound team around him. Rgds.

Soul* ... ur catching my cynical outlook! ...... ur comment about oil coming out of the ground is worth reflecting on with regards to the likes of CHP who currently only own a few allotments whose seeds have yet to germinate let alone grow to cropping.

Sit tight and accumulate at these levels.

jnknill - 26 Jul 2006 13:01 - 519 of 521
Soul Traders, At this stage it doesn,t bother me either but with the progress which most of us expect a move toward "good Management" is going to be a must. This will be in BLR interest, let,s face it Ivan will need a sound team around him. Rgds.

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You are far from alone in this sentiment, jnk. Indeed a poster elsewhere reported that he had had a meeting recently with Ivan and had been singularly unimpressed. He was of the opinion that Ivan would need to find himself a top notch CEO to keep the accelerating show on the road. He doesn't think Ivan is up to it.
A bit harsh maybe but I don't get the impression that Ivan is the sort to give up the reins of 'his baby' very easily. Might just become a bit of an issue 12 months down the road.

Good afternoon all, Thanks for your comments "diydave".........not trying to create waves and have to admit that, after all this time , Ivan has lined up some great potential for BLR but it would be a shame if this were not converted into total success! Only know what I have read about Ivan but he sounds like a real "oiler" who eventually, hopefully, will realise that to get the top City Insts. on-side, will need to take on-board, the relevant Management. Rgds.

Just topped up again at 1.179p.

Good evening all

I have talked to Ivan on a couple of occasions. While I believe him to be straight down the middle and that this is very much make or break for him. I did come away with a bit of a feeling that he views BLR as his baby and would be reluctant I think to hand over the responsability. At the end of the day the choice will not be his.

As for the drilling schedule above I strongly think you will see slippage in that as the weather in Colombia is rather wet from September??

I did contemplate buying back in after the placeing but after the Arce 4 results have decided against.

Good luck to you all with Monterey but has anyone checked if the recent Norweigen rig workers strike has delayed things. Worth dropping Wintersall an E-mail they are very good at Investor relations.

Again Good luck

Regards

Good post, Doc. Thanks.