Trading statement today - not good and shares have halved - just starting a thread in case anyone is interested in looking for the dcb ....

Currently 19p to buy - not thinking of buying at this time but just started tracking



ains


last bought 25/02 @ 12.5 last sold 26/02 for 10% gain

16p seems to be holding

afx

Elsewhere, Invensys fell back for a fifth consecutive session after ratings agency Moody's Investors changed its outlook on the rating to negative from stable, although it also affirmed the engineer's Ba1 senior unsecured debt rating.

trying for 15p again after US open

bloomberg

Invensys Plc (ISYS LN) lost 1.5p, or 8.6 percent, to 16. The factory controls maker that lost half its market value last week may have its junk credit rating cut further by Moody's Investors Service because of falling demand for its software and machinery electronics.

gloomberg: did they make that comment after Moody's affirmed the credit rating based on further penetrating insight or are they just sloppy journalists?

Hesitate to call the bottom but think this is it!

way after ....

News coverage not encouraging for a quick return to favour



Invensys hits 20-year low on Moody's verdict
By David Litterick (Filed: 22/02/2003) Telegraph


Invensys shares edged to a fresh 20-year low yesterday after ratings agency Moody's changed its outlook on the stock from stable to negative, saying it was unlikely to meet its earnings and cash flow targets.

"Any strategic response developed by management that fails to demonstrate a clear path towards improving cash flows in the core business or include measures to reduce debt further would add to the pressure on the rating," Moody's said.

The engineering company warned last week that its second-half operating profits were likely to be 25pc down on the first half and added that it might not hit key performance targets. It blamed underperformance at software company Baan and its climate controls division, which together account for about 20pc of revenues.

Invensys's unsecured debt carries a Ba1 rating. Moody's said it would not yet alter its rating because the company difficulties were localised and could potentially be rectified. It also said Invensys still enjoyed a degree of financial flexibility, with its portfolio of assets offering possibilities for monetarisation.

The company has about 1.5 billion of debt. The ratings agency also noted that Invensys had a good track record of disposals and was not in danger of breaching its banking covenants.

Invensys shares slid 1.25 to 16.25p yesterday, having fallen from 124p over the past 12 months. Now valued at just 600m, the company is almost guaranteed to be ejected from the FTSE 100 at next month's reshuffle.

The company said the outlook downgrade would have no effect on its banking covenants or interest payments, but this is just the latest problem to affect the struggling group, which appears to be suffering a terminal decline having once been the seventh-largest public company in Britain.

One trader said the volume of shares traded, usually 25m a day, was heavy as investors become increasingly wary of the stock after its shock profits warning last Friday. "Private investors have given up on it and there are very few natural buyers for it so the momentum will be down," he said.

much the same from the Times

February 22, 2003

Invensys slides on downcast Moody's appraisal
By Russell Hotten



SHARES in Invensys, the troubled electronics and engineering group, fell 7 per cent yesterday after Moodys, the debt rating agency, took a downcast view on the companys prospects.
The Moodys comments will be grim reading for Rick Haythornthwaite, chief executive of Invensys, who hoped that the worst was over when the shares halved after a profit warning eight days ago.

Although Moodys maintained its Ba1 senior unsecured debt rating, the agency changed its outlook on Invensyss long-term prospects from stable to negative. The shares fell 1p to a new low of 16p.

The change by Moodys reflects its concern about whether Invensys will meet its earnings and cashflow targets for the present fiscal year and possibly beyond.

Invensys shocked the market on January 15 when it said that, after a business review, second-half core operating profit could be up to 25 per cent lower than last time. The underperformance relates to operations including Baan, the software company, and the climate controls division, which account for a fifth of revenues.

Despite worries about the pace and impact of Invensyss restructuring, Moodys was upbeat about its good track record of asset disposals, which helped to reduce debt to 1.5 billion.

Analysts, already cautious about Invensyss prospects, said that Moodys comments added to the nervousness among investors. We are still getting over the profit warning and are on the lookout for anything negative, one analyst said.

Invensys would not comment on the matter.

According to the Morgans the debt is 2billion and there is an additional pension deficit of 1 billion......this from the Mail on Saturday.I am feeling nervious about the prospects .

Inclined to agree but not looking for an investment for life ..... talk of new management initiative or break up will soon get them bouncing a little - question is - from where?


ains

Agree with you there ainsoph.......not an investment for life this one..

The Sunday Times - Business



February 23, 2003

Share of the Week



IT IS extraordinary to think that just 10 years ago the company now known as Invensys was one of the dozen biggest on the stock market. The former BTR has suffered a miserable decline since the departure of Sir Owen Green, a process only hastened by the unpopular merger with Siebe and the disastrous acquisition of Baan. The shares fell to 16p last week, not helped by Moodys negative outlook on its credit rating. Moodys is concerned that Invensys will struggle to meet its cashflow and earnings targets, already low following the latest profit warning 10 days ago. Invensys has become a bonfire of reputations, and there are no quick fixes for Rick Haythornthwaite, chief executive.

Guardian reports: the shares fell 0.25p to 17.5p after dealers blamed the fall on selling by index trackers. Invensys will fall out of the FTSE 100 at the next quarterly review in March. There were also fears that the engineering company could breach its banking covenants. In order for Invensys to access its banking facilities analysts believe net interest payments must be covered at least 3.5 times by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA). However, they point out that even after last week's grim profits warning, the company should generate 340m of EBITDA in the year to March 30, 2004, while net interest payments will total 85m, leaving them covered four times.

biggest loser in top 100 this morning - down over 6% on 3 million traded - US futures marginally up on fair value


ains

24 Feb 2003 12:20 GMT

Invensys extends crash on outlook, banking fears

LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Troubled British engineering group Invensys Plc ISYS.L extended the slump in its share price to a new all-time low on Monday as worries deepened about its recovery prospects and exposure to banking covenants.
At 1215 GMT Invensys shares were down 12.3 percent at 14-1/4 pence, the worst performer in the FTSE 100 Index. Invensys has slumped 94 percent in the past three years and lost two-thirds of its value just this month, slashing its market capitalisation to about 510 million pounds ($805 million).

The latest rout was sparked on February 14, when Invensys warned core operating profit in the second half of its financial year could fall 25 percent from the first half.

Analysts said the shares were hit by doubts it will be able to make its 2004 margin targets, its pension liabilities and worries it may have to renegotiate banking covenants, despite Invensys saying it was confident it will meet its covenants "comfortably".

Credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service on Friday cut its outlook on the company to negative from stable, citing weakness in certain businesses "that will prevent the company from meeting its earnings and cash flow targets for the current fiscal year and possibly beyond."

One analyst, who asked not to be named, said: "This company has been mis-managed for a long time, it's been losing competitiveness, trading is tough, and although the balance sheet has been improving, now the (banking) covenants are coming back as an issue. There is a risk."

Invensys, which was formed in 1999 when Siebe acquired diverse engineering group BTR, makes controls and automation equipment for factories, offices and homes.

The company has cut jobs and sold assets to slash debt, but has been hit by a downturn in telecoms and information technology services and a weak U.S. commercial building market.

AFX on close

Engineering group Invensys was the heaviest blue-chip faller with a drop of 10.7 percent as worries grew about the company's ability to recover from poor trading and its exposure to banking covenants.

"I'm sure the banking covenants are OK at the moment, but if things continue as they are, one does have doubts about whether or not the company will survive," said Derek Mitchell, director of UK equities at ISIS Asset Management (LSE: ISIS.L - news) .

Another Ainsoph Kiss of Death

Kiss a teddy.

Still tracking and waiting to buy ...... or not

Heading south again this morning - must be another trade in there sometime soon :-))


ains



Invensys at 20-year low on bank fears
25 February 2003, Daily Mail

LECTRICAL engineer Invensys plunged to a 20-year low amid fears that it will breach banking agreements next year.




At 14 1/2p, down 1 3/4p at the close on Monday, the shares have fallen 60% since the profits warning on February 14.


The former BTR-Siebe warned of a steep slump in the half to March. The shares were 4 a year ago. New chief executive Rick Haythornthwaite took over last summer and has speeded up disposals to raise cash.


Invensys says it remains 'confident' that it will meet commitments. To avoid breaching covenants, March 2004 trading profits must be at least 3.5 times interest bills. Its broker Merrill Lynch predicts 100m interest and 355m trading profits next year.


That forecast depends on Baan, the troubled software division, breaking even from October. It is presently losing 500,000 a month.


Rating agency Standard & Poor's sees a 'significant chance' of another downgrade.



2003 Associated Newspapers Ltd.

Waiting for 3p, then buy.

patient teddy