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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

Fundamentalist - 28 Dec 2005 17:39 - 531 of 1009

Hi all

nice announcement though not overly unexpected - did find it amusing that the first UK client was an Australian company lol.

As for figures, as per usual with RTD contracts, it is impossible to assess quantifiably as the value (or even potential value) is not disclosed. They key to me is how are the deals structured - ie is there an upfornt payment and then a royalty charge, and if so, how big is the upfront payment and what percentage is it going forward.

Ultimately and without wanting to bore, until these deals are turned into revenue and profit growth in the annual accounts the SP growth is limited, if they can turn the contracts into turnover and profit growth, the SP will fly

optomistic - 28 Dec 2005 17:42 - 532 of 1009

Hi Fundy, are you back on board yet?

Fundamentalist - 28 Dec 2005 17:45 - 533 of 1009

No opto

still on the sidelines - to be honest i have very little in the market at the moment (DNX being my big holding still), spending too much time and energy on betfair to do enough research and to be honest struggling to find any decently priced growth stocks when i do.

optomistic - 28 Dec 2005 17:54 - 534 of 1009

Hope you don't miss this one Fundy, it does look to have promise.

Douggie - 28 Dec 2005 20:56 - 535 of 1009

:o))......for fred ..............;o\

Fred1new - 28 Dec 2005 23:32 - 536 of 1009

Fundy, Try using, if not already doing so, data mining in Sharescope, you should be able to dig out some nuggets. Perhaps even a little safer than oil spills.

It is very powerful tool.

Fundamentalist - 29 Dec 2005 00:09 - 537 of 1009

Fred

keep meaning to get a better data mining tool, will have a look in the new year when ive got a bit more time

Fred1new - 29 Dec 2005 12:31 - 538 of 1009

Fundy, Sharescope Gold will only cost you 2 bottles of reasonable plonk a month. And a talented Gentleman like you should be able to pay the year off after one month returns. Your cash flow will improve.

Fred1new - 29 Dec 2005 12:31 - 539 of 1009

Fundy, Sharescope Gold will only cost you 2 bottles of reasonable plonk a month. And a talented Gentleman like you should be able to pay the year off after one month returns. Your cash flow will improve.

Douggie - 03 Jan 2006 13:37 - 540 of 1009

Mournin all ................. :-[

Fred1new - 03 Jan 2006 14:26 - 541 of 1009

Douggie, You haven't had a holiday for quite a while, I think the SP would benefit from you going away again *-).


Patience Laddy.

Douggie - 03 Jan 2006 16:41 - 542 of 1009

Fred........untill these get back above last years high of 38/190p I have no chance of going anywhere, .........I took out a bank loan to buy a new car rather than cash in some of my shares so lost on all counts (the car turns out to be a friday afternoon/monday morning job)!!!!!!!!!!! ......... :-[..so well p155'd off..............

Fred1new - 03 Jan 2006 17:35 - 543 of 1009

I still think this share will reward you, but it may take a little time before turnover and profits show from recent deals. The day is still young.

optomistic - 03 Jan 2006 18:11 - 544 of 1009

Fred, I'll go along with that. Nothing comes quick and easy in this game unless you are one of those exceptionally lucky bar stewards or one of the others who are in the know (yet not supposed to)
Be patient Douggie there are a lot of people in the same situ.
opto

55011 - 04 Jan 2006 10:04 - 545 of 1009

I see the online sizes are looking decidedly iffy again. Whatever the pros, the cons seem to be getting the better of it at the moment. 22,000 to buy but a lousy 7,035 (strange figure) to sell.

It appears to be a technical situation arising from the recent placing/rights issue. Looking back to the figures pertaining to that time, I reckon that there is a fair bit of disappointment with performance since, and those who were banking on a quick recovery are getting out.

RTD should surely have handled last year's aquisitions in a better manner.

This is turning out to be one for those with patience. Not to mention fortitude.

wayne300808 - 04 Jan 2006 15:04 - 546 of 1009

55011

I see you are as astute with your opinion on this one as you were with CDG which has bounced back significantly since you cast your "laughable" remarks on its prospects. Happy new year!

55011 - 04 Jan 2006 19:21 - 547 of 1009

Wayne300808 ...and a Happy New Year to you too.

Yes CDG was a bit of a so and so. Sadly many earlier enthusiasts lost the faith after a bullish news release a couple of years back was followed two days later by a hefty cash call. Quite a few "failed to benefit" and have been wary of the Professor ever since. Still, good luck to those on the latest ride, but I'll sit it out, thanks.

As long as RTD holds up, I'll exercise some patience with it. Recent institutional and Board buying suggest that the next results (March) won't disappoint.

DYOR.

Fred1new - 05 Jan 2006 00:05 - 548 of 1009

Do you think we will last till March?

55011 - 05 Jan 2006 10:21 - 549 of 1009

Why not?

55011 - 11 Jan 2006 13:11 - 550 of 1009

Still moving gently upwards. 140p on the bid, and the recovery continues. On the other side the punters are looking for upwards of 165p.
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