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Ascent Resources - Speculative but Big Potential (AST)     

Proselenes - 18 Oct 2008 04:14

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Proselenes - 02 Dec 2010 12:35 - 546 of 707

I thought you might like the 10 times upside comment.

60p - that would be nice.... :)

Proselenes - 02 Dec 2010 15:51 - 547 of 707

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/23616/broker-roundup-desire-petroleum-rockhopper-ascent-resources-minera-irl-electrum-alliance-pharma-23616.html


Desire Petroleums (LON:DES) Rachel discovery suggests that the North Falkland basin has the potential to be an important oil province, according to research by Evolution Securities.

This morning Desire announced that the latest well to test the Rachel prospect struck oil from 2,621 metres.

Initial analysis indicates that the well encountered sands and shales with hydrocarbons with 349 metres gross interval, from which it has 57 metres of net pay in multiple zones.

The new Rachel well encountered sands and shales with hydrocarbons from 2,621 to 2,970 metres.

The thickest zone is 8 metres thick with an average porosity of 20% , Desire said that the other zones are thinly bedded and lower porosity.

Desire stressed that further analysis, from additional wireline logs, is required to establish the reservoir potential.

Wireline logging is ongoing but initial indications are that the thickest section has good porosity which bodes well for any future flow test and therefore commerciality of the field, Evolution oil analyst David Farrell said.
Farrell upgraded the oil explorer in light of the news. He now rates the stock as a buy with a 180 pence target.

Similarly Northland Capital - formerly Astaire Securities - also had an upbeat view on Desire, now it has an oil discovery of its own.

This looks very positive and vindicates Desire's decision to pursue the Rachel prospect with a second well (largely a consequence of analogous data from
Rockhoppers Sea Lion prospect), Northland analyst Andrew McGeary said.
Finally some reward for Desire's endeavours in the form of oil here.

Fox-Davies Capital featured Desire in its 'Daily Monitor' today and asked: "Have Desire and Rockhopper cracked the North Falkland Basin? Possibly, as Rachel confirms one of the play concepts unravelled by the Sea Lion discovery.
"It remains to be seen though whether reservoir development and quality are sufficient for Rachel to be commercial. Hence this is obviously very good news but still early days," the broker added.

The potential of Ascent Resources (LON:AST) assets is clearly being underestimated by the market, according to research by city broker finnCap.

The broker believes that Ascents projects could deliver nearly 10x upside if they prove successful.

Trading at a 60% discount to total NAV (Net Asset Value) Ascent is by far the cheapest stock in our coverage universe, providing a highly attractive entry point, finnCap analyst Will Arnstein said.

He adds: we believe there are near-term catalysts that could drive a material re-rating.

The analyst highlighted the 414 billion cubic feet (Bcf) Petişovci-Lovaszi re-development project, and its plans to drill five other exploration and appraisal wells planned in 2011, as two of the main catalysts.

This morning Ascent told investors that it has mobilised the rig for the first well in the Petişovci-Lovaszi programme.

This well, Pg-11, will be the first to drill on the Slovenian portion of the Petişovci-Lovaszi project area. Depending on the weather drilling is expected to get underway on or around 16 December 2010.
FinnCap believes that the Petisovci-Lovaszi gas field provides a material re-development opportunity .

A recent CPR (Competent Persons report) by RPS has confirmed Petisovci-Lovaszi as a significant under-exploited tight gas field with 412 Bcf of GIIP (billion cubic feet Gas Initially In Place), Arnstein added.

The field has been partially developed in the past, producing 10 Bcf without the benefit of modern drilling and completion technologies,

Ascent believes a recovery rate of 65% should be achievable from reservoirs of this type, providing a huge re-development opportunity for the company.

Additionally the analyst also highlighted that Ascents innovative sale of its Swiss assets, may still provide exposure to high impact drilling at no cost.

Overall Arnstein believes that Ascents value could rise rapidly.

In terms of his current valuation, Arnstein said: Our total NAV for Ascent is 15.6p per share and is made up of an -1.2p core NAV and a 16.8p risked NAV.

With most of Ascents activities in the exploration and appraisal phase, core NAV is currently limited, but could rise substantially within the next year as projects move rapidly to development.

Separately other analysts have also gave upbeat comments on Ascent and the Petisovci-Lovaszi project.

Fox-Davies stressed that Ascent has taken important steps to progress the work on Petisovci-Lovaszi.

This asset has the potential to drive near-term value and it is welcome news that the drilling operations are underway; Pg-11 will be the first in a 4-well drilling programme, the broker said.

We look forward to further updates from the evaluation programme and maintain our Buy recommendation.

............

grannyboy - 02 Dec 2010 18:08 - 548 of 707

Just got home been out all afternoon, Yes Prose i do like the sound of a 10 bagger!!!!!!!!!. SQZ looking tasty??.

Proselenes - 02 Dec 2010 23:45 - 549 of 707

Thanks to smarty, here is a link to the Broker Note on AST, you can download and read at your leisure :

http://www.mediafire.com/?vcogo6g2j8x2612

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grannyboy - 03 Dec 2010 11:16 - 550 of 707

Yes PRO read and digested, thanks...

grannyboy - 06 Dec 2010 09:41 - 551 of 707

Nice blue rise so far reckon we could hold today and build on the momentum that we are seeing on the run up to the spudding....??

Proselenes - 06 Dec 2010 10:23 - 552 of 707

Very strong, clearing out the stale bulls.

No reason this should not be well over 10p soon, going to be an exciting few months ahead and maybe a 20p price target is too low.... ?

grannyboy - 06 Dec 2010 10:37 - 553 of 707

You could be right on all counts Prose!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

grannyboy - 08 Dec 2010 12:23 - 554 of 707

12.05 250k at 26.50p that would do for starters!!!!!!!!

Proselenes - 11 Dec 2010 02:28 - 555 of 707

Excellent end to the week, strong demand for shares taking out the top slicers and stale bulls who probably hoped their selling would weaken the price and make it fall back.

Wrong they were, the buyers are more than the sellers and so the share price rises upwards...... into a nice strong close.

Perhaps a break though 10p next week.

grannyboy - 11 Dec 2010 10:24 - 556 of 707

Yes Pro i was looking for 8.5 before the spud news but it looks like it could hit higher!!! then who knows after????

Proselenes - 12 Dec 2010 12:45 - 557 of 707

Thanks to a poster on III for the info.


AST gets a speculative buy rating in Shares this week, summary as follows:

"Speculative investors should 'snap' up as AST prepares to drill a well on 412bcf Petisovci-Lovasi prospect."

Mentions can be bought into production quickly off the back of existing infrastructure

6 wells to be drilled over next 12 months across 3 core developments with a potential rereating to 58p quotes FinnCap.

Drilling expected to start q1 on Hermrigen gas field targeting a 120bcf prospect.

Also mentions Anagni-2 likely to be spudded mid 2011 targeting approx 5mmbo.

Highlights risk of potential requirement for additional funds, up to 15million, through a dilutive placing for contingent wells and upgrade of production infrastructure at Petisovci"

grannyboy - 12 Dec 2010 19:05 - 558 of 707

Should'nt be to dilutive Prose if the share price is higher??write up wont do the share price any harm!!!!





Proselenes - 13 Dec 2010 05:12 - 559 of 707

A nice chart update from "fingers xxd" at AFN

http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=5456944&from=13853

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Proselenes - 13 Dec 2010 07:55 - 560 of 707

A deal with the EDB will really cut down on any dilution, so lets hope they move with a debt-finance solution for Slovenian.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/11559/slovenia-success-could-transform-ascent-resources-11559.html


............spects. Once management has the data it can decide how it finances the project, with the capital costs estimated at between 100 and 150 million euros.

One way to bankroll the potential 28 hole programme at Petişovci-Lovaszi might be to find a farm-in partner.

But Ascent doesnt really want to dilute down its 75 stake in the project.

So it may look to debt-finance Petişovci-Lovaszi. Cunningham says there are sources of funding out there including possibly the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development as a possible partner.

Farming in is about both risk mitigation and funding but also provides an access to technical expertise, the Ascent finance director said.

It is a double edged sword. Obviously you get someone to carry you through the drilling programme.

But it (Petişovci-Lovaszi) is fairly large, instantly producible and the.............

Proselenes - 13 Dec 2010 14:09 - 561 of 707

Simon Cawkwell's view (EK)


.......Also constantly perking up is Ascent (AST), now 8.5p middle or so. News is on its way and holders should hold very tight. Newbies can snaffle a few as a matter of principle......


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Proselenes - 14 Dec 2010 02:25 - 562 of 707

Nice to see some more "initial coverage".

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/13532/hybridans-small-cap-wrap


I think more and more are waking up to the fact AST is going to have some very exciting times in the coming 6 months. Those exciting times will be made vastly more exciting if they can come to a deal with the European Development bank for debt-finance for Slovenia, as has been suggested already.

If you look at the projects they are all pretty much appraisal.

Slovenia - gas is there, proven, produced some years ago and now looking for sweet spots to tap the main resource.

Anagni/Ripi - proven oil, again, looking for sweet spots.

Swiss - proven gas, appraisal well.

Netherlands - proven gas awaiting farm out to appraise.

Hungary - proven gas, producing now and might look at deeper potential later.

Slovenia starts now, Swiss in Q1 2011, and Anagni maybe Q2 2011. Thats three high impact projects all happening in the coming 6 months.

goughpj - 14 Dec 2010 19:08 - 563 of 707

It looks as if it is well run, and the fact that they are not at the mercy of the sea for their exploration is a big plus.

Proselenes - 15 Dec 2010 04:30 - 564 of 707

They are also focused on "mainland Europe" - which negates the political risks too. Such a focus also gives them access to good sales prices for oil and gas.

grannyboy - 15 Dec 2010 12:28 - 565 of 707

Hopefully everything on time weather in slovenia dry,cloudy with sunny intervals...
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