I am a trader as well as an investor and hopefully this thread will reflect both aspects ....

We should start by saying this is a highly speculative share and the market takes no prisoners.

Over the last 18 months I made lots twice in the early days - then lost it back - bought a million at 2.6p average - founded the TAG - bought another half a million or so at sub 1p - sold most at average 4.25 - bought back at 2.2p and less - sold most at 3.5p and now buying back - overall a good net profit at this time.

I think the d4e will happen (say 90% chance) and the 3% currently talked about will give or should give a price equating to say 3/5p. Longer term on succcess of d4e and progress in the sales market the shares should move to around 10p - assumming markets are not in freefall.

I am looking to buy at any time and hoping for a war generated dip - when I do I will let you know.

The TAG site is a great place for catching up on the TWT news and I will post here as well.

Currently trading on TWT is light (1.7 million traded) and the price is down a littlw with a wide spread (2.01/2.35p). This is a sets share and you must expect a crtain amount of manipulation in these troubled times - FTSE down over 4% intraday

I have a core holding of at least half a million shares and intend to be a long term investor at this time.


ainsoph


http://www.investoraction.co.uk - currently we have 804 registered members holding around 100 million shares in total

To the poster earlier who addressed a question to me hi, sorry for the delay in getting back to you.

Its immpoosible to keep up with sheer vol of posts both here and at advfn on the TAG twt thread, (plus I do an occaisional update over at 3i.)

Ainsoph and I do not know what good we achieved except one thing, Telewest were very very aware of us.............and its fair to say wary, and that was BEFORE the d for e full details were released. We aimed to stop an energis, ie a complete colapse and was very public about it. On that basis it looks like we were successful although in fairness we do not know if our public presence made any difference or not.

Soon now the TAG's work will be done, but we will kep an interest until the d for e mechanism finally happens and "new" twt shares trade.

Ainsoph will answer other questions I am sure

Telewest-NTL merger possible: Burdick
By electricnews.net
Posted: 11/02/2003 at 14:17 GMT


UK cable company Telewest expects to be cash-flow positive by the fourth quarter, and a merger with NTL could be on the cards, the firm's managing director has said.

Telewest boss Charles Burdick has predicted that the company will begin generating money in its fourth quarter, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. This would follow the completion of the company's debt refinancing plan that has seen 97 percent of Telewest taken over by creditors.

More significantly, Burdick has said that at the beginning of next year, a merger could occur with NTL, which runs cable networks in the UK and Ireland. For its part, NTL declined to comment on the possibility, but speculation over the two firms combining their operation has been lingering for months.

It is generally thought that a merger between the two companies could create the only viable competition to satellite TV company BskyB and its ever-expanding subscriber base. A merger between Telewest and NTL would also establish a more formidable competitor to BT in the fixed-line consumer and small business broadband market.

Since the two companies have few overlapping operations, it seems unlikely that regulatory hurdles would hold back such a combination. Thus far, the overwhelming debt that the companies have accumulated has been the main obstacle to a merger, but with much of that debt now gone, industry talk of a merger between the two firms has resumed.

In its bankruptcy plan, NTL was divided into two distinct companies, NTL UK and Ireland, and NTL Europe. The former company also exchanged about STG7 billion in debt for control of the firm by creditors. A similar plan on the part of Telewst is set to be completed by the end of March, which will see STG3.5 billion of its STG5.3 billion in debts forgiven in return for handing control of 97 percent of the company to lenders.

In his update on Telewest's restructuring, Burdick said the plan should be completed in the second quarter. Burdick also said that Telewest could be the first cable company globally to turn cash-flow-positive. "Our plans show the second quarter '04 for cash-flow-positive, but I have the team focused on internal targets that move that up to the fourth quarter of 2003," he is quoted as saying in the Wall Street Journal.

NTL in Ireland, previously known as Cablelink, employs about 480 and it is the biggest cable provider in Ireland, dominating the Dublin market and along the east coast.

ElectricNews.Net

Telewest broadband customers offered digital photo service
12/02/2003
Editor: David Minto europemedia

On the day BT revealed that it is to bring the Yahoo UK Plus service to its broadband customers, cable operator Telewest has announced it is to link up with digital photography web services provider PhotoBox.

Telewest estimates that around half of its 250,000 broadband subscribers currently own a digital camera. PhotoBox will provide users to register for free with an initial 30Mb of space to upload and store images. Customers are able to order prints and personalised gifts (such as T-shirts and birthday cards), with storage space increasing to 100Mb after the first order.

Broadband snapshot shows cable most able


[Computer Buyer] 15:59

Oftel report shows cable staving off DSL as the access method of choice.
'It's pissing on ADSL,' is how John Moorwood, Consumer PR manager at Telewest Broadband, described it. And the latest figures from Oftel that provide a snapshot of UK Internet access as at the end of December 2002, suggest it is true.

The coverage of the broadband technologies is comparable - with 14m homes able to connect via ADSL, and 13.3m via cable. But of those 1,360,000 who have signed up for broadband, 769,000 took the cable option - around 57 per cent. And these figures do not include the numbers for Telewest's Blueyonder broadband, whose figures won't be released for another two weeks. So the cable percentage will definitely be higher still.



Oftel did not offer comment on the figures, however Telewest's Moorwood does expect the gap to close, given ADSL's increasing coverage of the population as more exchanges are enabled. 'We'll always be the urban warriors,' he said, 'so no doubt ADSL will catch up.'

The cable dominance is particularly notable given that they are now one of the more expensive ways to connect, as ADSL resellers slash prices in the clamour for custom. In Europe, ADSL connections are on a par with Germany in terms of price. But when you include cable services, the UK is second only to Sweden as the most expensive in Europe and the US.

The reason we're prepared to pay that little bit more for cable, according to Moorwood, is that the cable companies can guarantee the product they offer, as they own all the equipment, including the networks. An Oftel survey on ADSL connections, released at the end of last month showed that 50 per cent of subscribers had experienced problems with 'getting connected, with connections being slower than expected, or from poor helplines'.

As a nation, we are a single point behind the European average, with 42 per cent of homes having Internet access.

Matt Whipp

Telewest revival renews NTL merger rumours
[MacUser] 15:27

Telewest shares jumped 10 per cent yesterday after the company's managing director predicted that the cable operator would make a trading profit in the fourth quarter of 2003.
The news renewed suggestions that Telewest may merge with rival cable operator NTL in 2004. Talk of merger before now has always been overshadowed by the vast debts both companies had incurred whilst swallowing up the UK's cable franchises

However, Telewest is expected to complete the restructuring of its 5.3bn debt within the next four months, whilst NTL recently announced the completion of its own rescheduling package.

NTL and Telewest - under the Blueyonder banner - are the UK's two cable broadband suppliers. As they do not offer competing alternatives - they are each restricted to their own geographical areas - but face strong competition from the expanding ADSL network, monopoly regulators are not expected to block any merger.

Simon Aughton

Interesting article in the April edition of PC World showing how to share a bb connection within the home or small office.

Recently I re-jigged my own TWT account which covers telephone - TV and bb .... very impressed with overall service from the helpline and account staff - many hundreds of % better than this time last year. Included a curtsey call today to remind me of date when changes were taking place and to ensure I wanted to go ahead.

I had a chat about their latest promotional/pricing material and fed back some thoughts of my own.

As a shareholder and customer - very impressed.


ains

BT rivals question broadband figures

London, February 13 2003, (netimperative)



by Richard Agnew

BT was accused of "muddling" its broadband user figures today, after citing increasing penetration as evidence for potential renewed growth in revenues.


In its results for the last three months of 2002, the company posted a 37% rise in pre-tax profits to 521m, but saw its shares drop 4% this morning due to concerns over growth and a potential hole in its pension scheme.

The firm posted a less-than-expected 1% increase in sales to 4.7bn, but sought to reassure investors that "record broadband sales" in January of 25,000 per week, giving it a total of 650,000 end users at the start of this month, signalled renewed potential for growth.

Chief executive Ben Verwaayen said: "We generated our highest ever broadband sales, with in excess of 25,000 per week in January, launched a major market awareness campaign, reduced wholesale and retail connection charges and lowered the exchange upgrade trigger levels, demonstrating our strong commitment to broadband Britain."

But the company was accused by rivals of presenting a confusing picture by adopting overall ADSL market figures - its wholesale customer base rather than that of its ISP arms BT Openworld and BT Retail - as its main indicator.

Reacting to the results, Telewest Broadband MD Gavin Patterson said: "BT is muddling its numbers with a confusing combination of business and residential customers. It's using over 100 ADSL resellers to stake a claim in broadband Britain, but still trailing in our wake."

The overall ADSL market, including customers of BT and ISPs such as AOL and Freeserve, was 650,000 at the start of February, according to figures from BT Wholesale. But the overall broadband market, including ADSL, satellite, cable and wireless users, according to Oftel's latest figures, stood at 1.4m by the end of December.

Meanwhile, BT Retail, whose broadband user base is now believed to have reached around 100,000, posted an operating profit of 379m on sales of 3.3bn. BTopenworld, whose subscriber base stood at 244,000 at the end of December, posted a loss of 8m on sales of 75m. The two arms, which have since merged, have now gained over half of the ADSL market.

Elsewhere, BT's debt mountain was further reduced by 195m to 12.9bn, and has since been cut further by January's sale of the company's stake in Cegetel for 2.6bn.

However, the firm warned it could face a shortfall of up to 1.5bn in its pension fund, although an official valuation of the fund will not be calculated until May.

www.bt.com

News - February 14,2003
NTL & Telewest Snub 3.4Ghz Auction ISP

By:mark.j @ 9:57:AM - News Comments - Apparently neither of the UKs primary cable operators (NTL and Telewest) are likely to take any part in the government's May 3.4GHz broadband wireless auction:

"We've got enough on our plate at the moment," Tony Grace, managing director of Telewest Business, explained. Grace added that this decision won't necessarily prevent Telewest from offering wireless broadband services in the future.

"I think you'll see a lot of partnerships formed, as companies work together and share the initial investment in these broadband technologies," Grace added.

It is also understood that NTL has no plans to bid for a 3.4GHz licence. NTL has shown considerable interest in wireless broadband, and is currently conducting a trial of a consumer broadband service in London.

Despite this the government is still confident that the auction will be a success, much as they have been with all of their past attempts; didnt most of them fail? More @ ZDNet.

Sarah Arnott [13-02-2003] infomatics


Pair sign five-year deal for managed virtual private network
Building society Bristol & West has said that its 4.5m network upgrade will quadruple available bandwidth and underpin the move towards browser-based computing.
Bank of Ireland UK Financial Services, which owns Bristol & West, signed a five-year deal with network provider Telewest Business in November to supply a managed virtual private network using Internet Protocol.

The society is now rolling out the technology to 140 locations, which should take until April.

The ability to set quality of service levels on an application-by-application basis is a key benefit of the new system, according to Jon Lethbridge, head of IT strategy and planning at Bank of Ireland UK Financial Services.

"With the old system, everything that goes up and down the pipe is treated the same," he explained.

"But some applications are more important than others. For example, systems involved in savings transactions should take precedence over cashiers looking at the intranet.

"With the new service we can manage the traffic and make sure that key applications get a high quality of service, fitting the others in around them."

Being able to prioritise network traffic underpins Bristol & West's move towards browser-based computing, with multiple applications accessed through a standard browser.

"Browser sessions clogged up the old network very quickly, but this technology allows us to manage that traffic and deliver a better service," said Lethbridge.

The increased bandwidth will also allow the company to deliver images across the network.

Traditional paper forms, such as mortgage applications, can now be replaced by electronic versions which can be accessed from a central repository.

"The bottom line is that we have some new applications and some new styles of using technology, and the existing network didn't support them," explained Lethbridge.

The project is expected to pay back in 12 months by recouping on supplier costs. "We are managing to upgrade our capacity without extra cost," he said.

Legal action mulled over NTL BB cap
By Tim Richardson
Posted: 14/02/2003 at 15:19 GMT


Angry NTL customers are considering legal action over the cableco's decision to cap its broadband service.

The Register understands that lawyers are currently examining the possibilities of setting up a "group action" against the cableco.

The fact that a legal team is mulling court action shows the depth of feeling among customers and is a sure sign that the row over the 1 Gig/day capping is unlikely to fade away quietly.

Shares are edging up and it seems unlikely I will be able to add/buyback at 2p or less and guess I will look to add at sub 2.5p .... I am sure we are getting close to a d4e proposal in detail and a merger will happen in due course but think end of year timing is a little premature

ains




February 15, 2003

Banks say Telewest merger with NTL would require 1bn
By Dan Sabbagh, Telecoms Correspondent TIMES



A MERGER between NTL and Telewest, the cable telecom companies, could happen as soon as the end of this year but would require the injection of as much as 1 billion of cash if the deal is to win the support of both parties lending banks, banking insiders said last night.
The two companies are coming under investor pressure to open talks soon after Telewest completes its 3.5 billion financial restructuring some time in the early summer.

It is felt that the cable industry needs to unite quickly to fight off intense competition from BT and BSkyB.

Financiers said that the new money is required because a number of banks have lent heavily to NTL and Telewest debts which have remained unimpaired during both companies respective debt-for-equity swaps.

If the two came together, some bank credit committees are unlikely to sanction such a large exposure to a single company, meaning that between 600 million and 1 billion would have to be raised to refinance the overdrafts.

NTL and Telewest do not overlap and although they co-operate on a number of minor matters, an analysis circulating in the cable industry has concluded there are between 250 million and 300 million of annual capital and operational savings that could be wrought from a tie-up.

Currently, it is understood that there are no merger talks between the two companies and relations between Barclay Knapp, president and chief executive of NTL, and Charles Burdick, Telewests managing director, are thought to be cool. Of the two, Telewest is keener to strike a deal because its finances are in better shape and its top management team more stable.

Telewest declined to comment yesterday, but earlier this week Mr Burdick was reported as saying that the company would be the first cable company in the world to turn cashflow positive at the end of this year and that its restructuring was much less disruptive to the organisation than the $11 billion (6.8 billion) one completed by NTL last month.

A spokeswoman for NTL also refused to comment. She said it was not the companys policy to discuss its view on a tie-up with Telewest.

The need for a cash injection could be an opportunity for a strategic investor such as Liberty Media, Telewests largest investor, to increase its interest in UK cable. Libertys 25 per cent holding in Telewest will be diluted to about 11 per cent as a result of the companys restructuring and the American investment group controlled by John Malone is expected to see its three board seats reduced to just one.

Most of Telewests new shares will be controlled by bond investors, who overlap with the investment group that rescued NTL. The fund controlled by Bill Huff, NTLs acting chairman, will have about 10 per cent of the reconstructed Telewest which mirrors the size of his holding at NTL.

Telewests restructuring will see bondholders take 97 per cent of the company, with existing shareholders being left with the remaining 3 per cent.

Ainsoph a copy of a post on both advfn and the 3i site below.

By the way on the advfn site various people have started to impersonate you, therefore I have posted a comment on the TAG thread there to inform people that they should ignore "virtual" "new" ainsops and contact you via the TAG website or email on the thread header for direct TAG info. I also indicated you were not posting there at present

cut and paste below

The latest position with twt is encouraging and shows signs of moving to a conclusion where we can at least be moderately confident (geopolitical risks aside) twt will survive, and with us on board albeit in a much reduced capacity.

I had always said that this twt deal was the best of a bad job (debt for equity) and I still get angry when I think of all the (quite frankly) downright "disinformation" received from certain official quarters. However life moves on and the world today is a very different place from that of the year 2000/2001. Providing the debt for equity deal continues to progress/complete and Telewest continues to survive the TAG's role will come to an end. We came into existence to prevent an Energis style collapse emanating from the debt for equity and to date that has been averted. We will remain around until the process is complete.

It will be, sad to relate, a long long time before some of us re-coop our initial investment, indeed as one poster commented a year or so ago we may well have to hand our shares on to our grandchildren before the "real" value reaches the equivalent of 1 again.

However short of completely unknown events I believe we have avoided administration. Thats a start. Another milestone will be reached when we can all make a decision to cash our twt shares for a reasonable equity stake to invest elsewhere (if that is our wish) In my case that milestone is about 12p or so.

I will continue to look in here occasionally and will post as and when real news develops.

The TAG will be wound up/I will resign at the conclusion of the debt for equity deal. Best wishes for the future

Paul

Hi Paul ..... your post prompted several people to mail me privately asking where they could find me for the future and I have pointed them in the obvious direction of the website and here ..... I do occasionly post on iii and TMF .... and even HS when the occasion warrants.

The opening post covers my current situation - I hold maybe a million shares + and have a chunk of profits from trading that I am looking to reinvest/speculate. I was hoping for sub 2p in a dip but have raised the target to sub 2.4p.


ains


latest news

Telewest Foreshadows NTL Merger


By Mike Farrell
Multichannel News
2/17/2003



The complete text of this article is available only to subscribers.

Abstract: Telewest Communications plc, the United Kingdom's second-biggest cable operator, said it would reach cash-flow positive status by the end of this year six months earlier than originally expected and said that a merger with NTL Inc., the No. 1 U.K. MSO, could happen in 2004. Talking to Dow Jones Newswires in London last week, Telewest managing director Charles Burdick said an ear...

February 16, 2003

Broadband shines amid the telecoms gloom
The number of homes and firms with high-speed internet access is 1.5m and rising, says Paul Durman of the S Times



The cable-television companies, NTL and Telewest, also offer broadband, although a different variety known as cable modem. Between them, the cable companies have about 800,000 broadband customers. After a slow start, Britain now has nearly 1.5m homes and small businesses with broadband facilities.

Browsing websites using a broadband connection is a much quicker and more pleasant experience than with a traditional dial-up connection. It is less frustrating, and users are inclined to spend more time on the internet.

Gavin Patterson, managing director of Telewests consumer division, says: People are just doing more of what they did before. Time online is about four times what it was in the dial-up world. Some people are spending more time online than theyre spending on TV. Theres more chat, theres more e-mailing, more photography, more web-browsing. And it is made for the adult market.

The 10 most popular websites among Telewests Blueyonder broadband customers include seven that offer adult entertainment.


full story @ http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2095-578757,00.html

There is an encouraging article in todays Sunday Times business section about broadband growth. Telewest are mentioned favourably. It was also quite amusing to note that Telewest commented that out of their 10 most popular websites, 7 were of an "adult nature"...........

I always said the two things that are guarenteed to make money on the net is sex and money..:)

NETIMPERATIVE COMMENT: Sky should fear the cable guys

14/February/2003

Latest figures from Oftel, BT, and a statement by Telewest CEO Charles Burdick all point to one thing - cable is on the move. After a couple of years of financial hell, both NTL and Telewest are at last preparing for their long-expected merger and it seems there can be only one loser, young Sky.


As BT unveiled yesterday, it claims more than 50% of the ADSL broadband market with an estimated 350,000 users signed up under either BT Retail or the fast disappearing BTopenworld in a total market of 680,000 ADSL users. A strategy of determined stubbornness towards local loop unbundling, among other things, has left it in prime position and with few competitors.

However, the real success story is cable broadband. Oftel says there are 769,000 end users of cable broadband services and that's before Telewest reports its new figures very soon. Combined, NTL and Telewest are available to 13.3m homes, the vast bulk of which can access broadband services if they so choose. And the likelihood is, that so choose they will.

It has long been thought that if only the two cable sisters could address their ugly, nay monstrous debts, they ought to be able to press home a distinct advantage - the potential for users to put their TV, phone and internet access costs onto one bill and with one supplier. BT and Sky, spotting the threat, have spent the past two years seeking ways of joining forces to offer an all-in-one style package of their own, but a true fit has been impossible.

Thus, especially as broadband interest snowballs, consumers are finding that cable is by far the simplest option - costs are somewhat more manageable too. For BT, safe as houses in its monopoly world of phone line exchanges, this is an irritance but barely a real bother. It has always known that its only option was to do what it could to hang on to the local exchanges for as long as possible and exercise its marketing power to make its ADSL package the most obvious.

For Sky, on the other hand, the likely dominance of cable puts an almighty spanner in the works. While Sky Digital - on which it has done a fantastic job - has been the most viable option for iTV users, it could claim dominance of both content and delivery. As cable becomes more populated, it will gradually be left with only its (costly) content and, as the balance of power shifts, you can bet the cable companies will want to press their advantage when it comes to content negotiations.

Even worse for the satellite kings is that, once Telewest is able to clear its debt with the banks - as it surely will - it is clear to at last join forces properly with its estranged cable partner and, together, they pose a significant power. The geographical overlap of the Telewest and NTL networks is negligible enough to keep integration costs - and interference from the Competition Commission - to a minimum and their combined promotional budgets will be the subject of much adland attention.

Charles Burdick says Telewest could be cash-flow positive by the end of this year. With its whopping interest payments removed under its financial restructuring, it should be a good deal more than that. And once it is, a ball Sky would rather remained flat will indeed start rolling.

ainsoph

Thanks for posting the above. That is the most bullish commentary on TWT's operational prospects I have seen. Perhaps there are real chances of the 3 to 4p we expect to see (on confirmation of restructuring) growing significantly in the next year or two.

I think there is every chance jaffa ...... My guess currently is maybe 5p - on the assumption of a deal that is acceptable. That would equate to an old share price of say 150p. Talk of a merger and/or good figues from the company at that time will easily support this kind of price. I do not see the bondholders selling out in the near future after the d4e



ains

Telewest looking into 606 Interactive problem
18:01 GMT, Monday 17th February 2003 -- by James Welsh
Telewest is looking into fixing problems experienced on its digital cable service with the BBC's 606 Interactive service "as a matter of urgency", the cable operator told Digital Spy today.

Word has seeped out that angry NTL customers, whom are opposed to the operators recent bandwidth cap on broadband services, are to gather outside this weeks Internet Industry Awards in London:

Those behind the direct action are hoping that a demo outside the event will help raise public awareness while causing maximum embarrassment to the cableco.

Users had hoped that a wave of protests planned for Valentine's Day would help make NTL reconsider its decision to cap broadband use to 1Gb a day. At this stage, it's still not known whether the protests - including the threat of mass disconnections from the service - materialised to any great degree.

The Register notes that an online petition against the cap has now garnered some 2,700 digital signatures.