any comments, thoughts, on this stock.

cynic,
Like most things...........it depends!!
Think of a mortgage book as a bond.
NRK are currently trying to sell a bond with a coupon of probably about 5.5%, with the associated costs and risks of collecting the interest. Par value is the amount outstanding on the loans.
18 months ago this was attractive (compared to bonds) and selling at a premium, thats how banks made money. Particularly the higher rate sub-prime stuff.
Now it is unnatractive. Not so much for the rate, but for the uncertainty surrounding the payments.
Sub prime and prime do not operate in isolation. If sub prime borrowers struggle, prime ones probably will too. This is where I think NRK has unrealised potential. The unsecured stuff is more like 7%, which is much more attractive, and is variable.
In simple terms, NRK had 3 areas where it was being foolhardy with its lending criteria.
1) Long term fixes at silly low rates (mine is 4.99%). This is poor and will take a hit.
2) Very high income multiples and so increased risk. Again very unattractive and will take a hit.
3) 125% LTV lending. This looks outrageous and would be very unattractive, but.........only 95% of the LTV was secured. The remaining 30% was unsecured, with the option of securitising if required. There may be value there. In the event of any misdemeanour on the account the rate for the 30% can be raised to SVR+2% (almost 9%). Now a 6.5% (or thereabouts) secured bond on 95% LTV with an extra 30% at a potential 9% that can be secured looks more like an attractive proposition, especially when that 30% is variable and on full status, prime customers only.
If NRK can stop this becoming a distressed purchase where the vultures cannot cherry pick at any price they fancy, this could be NRK's saving grace.
The first 2 are reasons why the book will sell at a discount and the third is why they often sell at a premium.
Sorry if it is a bit muddled but it is a very complex area without the exact figures to hand.
Alan

These are going to be suspended later on to day, and then broken up, no value left for share holders?? get out now while you still can. IMHO

falling sharply again...good shorting...113p now

alan .... many thanks for your explanation; my very limited intellect just about coped.

hyleo ..... i thought i was being brave to foolhardy topping up my short late yesterday at 139.3 .... clearly not ...... does one short further? ..... quite possibly ..... in fact, just sold another goujon at 121

Heres a thought though, cynic.
If NRK are going through the mill, then in the absence of any other variables, any other lender with the same model must be too.
I am not very good with balance sheets and the like but I know of 3 lenders who jealously eyed the NRK success in lending out money and tried to copy the products, so what must they have to reveal?
The companies are;
Coventry, but their underwriting was more robust and they are mutual anyway.
Mortgage Express. I forget who their owners are but I will try to find out. However their rates were a little higher, but their borrowers less prime.
Birmingham Midshires (part of HBOS). Also very aggresive and very similar product and underwriting to NRK. In their favour, they have the clout of HBOS behind them, but it may still show up badly on the HBOS books. Secondly, they were less exposed to retail and more exposed to BTL lending. This may have insulated them a little, but I think that may come home to roost soon.
On balance, HBOS might be worth a close look with a view to shorting any hint of bad news.
Alan

alan .... interesting thought though next bank reporting season is a little way off

What do we think about reports that other lenders are going to the ECB, rather than BoE for a loan, in order to keep it their little secret? Could it be that NRK are simply the most transparent (or naive)? Or is it simply the rumour mill going into overdrive?

not rumour ... it's in Telegraph this morning

NRK only the tip of the iceberg IMO. ECB keep things quieter I believe

So if it is not rumour, then the smart money will be looking for the similar models to short, because even if it is kept mum for now, it must be reported at some stage, even if only on the results.
On the high street, I will go against conventional wisdom and go for HBOS (only with play money - I don't generally short). Off the high street, I will have an each way bet on a rank outsider - GMAC-RFC, wholly owned by General Motors.
Ladies and Gents, place your bets for a very interesting banking season!!!

EDIT - And the announcement of a review of the FSA, followed by a break up of what it regulates into seperate authorities - back to the 80's!!

The BOS part of HBOS has been very aggressive in the corporate leveraged debt field, so if you add in possible problems at Birmimgham Midshires, you may be right Alan. I have a feeling that this issue has surfaced just in time to save the whole sector from meltdown and that the recent knocks to the bank shares might provide a good buying opportunity for the patient. If only we knew......

In hindsight, we all have 20/20 vision, and looking back at my analogy of a mortgage book being comparable to a bond, we should have seen it coming long ago. After all, a sub prime or delinquent or low rate mortgage book is no more than a junk bond, and look what happened to them. And the repurcussions afterwards.
Scary if it played out fully.
Alan

rumour that shares are being called in - don't know why? - therefore I've closed short

wonder if that is a move prior to formal suspension ...... seems the most likely, though do not understand what is meant by "called in" as if someone has a short option or cfd it is not subject to arbitrary cancellation by the stock-lender

I assume (but could be wrong) that people (institutions) who have lent out shares (for the purposes of shorting) have called them in (i.e. want them back).

Only guessing though....

Perhaps someone better informed could comment.

Strawbs

These are high risk , money can be made but only if you get in at the right price . I am glad that i was on the golf course yesterday , otherwise i my had got in at 1.30 .

the rumour is a rescue at 175

Looking at the rule 8 RNS - Barclays have been busy.

Stop loss hit at around lunch time, thats me out the game.... Will watch with interest....

i have kept all my short positions open, but with a guaranteed stop - well worth the very small premium .... if this rumoured 175 bid is shown to have any substance, then sp will be rocket, but i shall be out with a very nice profit, albeit only 40/60% of what it was notionally at say 9 o'clock this morning ..... if the rumour is groundless, and there is certainly no follow-up statement, then sp will plunge once more