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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

Fred1new - 17 Jan 2006 12:29 - 565 of 1009

Not disagreeing with you Fundy, but I think based on these figures from Barclays and Square Gain which havent been updated yet and accepting a a PE of about 20 for a now rapidly developing company we could expect a share price 240p over these next 12mths.

I am uncertain what the returns will be from its Korean licensing.

From Barclays
Forecasts
Year Ending Sales (m) Pre-tax (m) EPS P/E PEG EPS Grth. Div Yield
31-Dec-05 39.80 7.40 8.50p 17.3 n/a -1% n/a 0.0%
31-Dec-06 130.90 11.20 9.80p 15.0 1.0 +15% n/a 0.0%
31-Dec-07 141.10 13.80 12.00p 12.3 0.5 +22% n/a 0.0%



From Squaregain

Ratio estimates 2005 2006 2007(e)
Earnings per share (EPS) (in BPC) 8.50 9.80 12.00
Price earnings ratio 18.12 15.71 12.83



Cash flow per share (in BPC) n/a n/a n/a
Net assets per share (in BPC) n/a n/a n/a

Fundamentalist - 17 Jan 2006 13:00 - 566 of 1009

Fred

dont disagree, was only posting the house broker (i think) views which arent as bullish as the trading update would appear to be. If i remember rightly last yrs statement was similar and then the results were relatively disappointing (compared to what people were expecting). Hopefully this time, genuine revenue and profit growth from the CNP business will outweight the decline in CP - that will see the SP rocket

Fundamentalist - 17 Jan 2006 13:03 - 567 of 1009

Fred

O/T quickly, if youve time, could you have a quick look at HDG and let me know yours views - a share that doesnt hit many radars but trading on a low PE and very low PEG with a decent divi (only downside being AIM listed) - excellent interims today - would be interested to know what you think

Fred1new - 17 Jan 2006 15:34 - 568 of 1009

Fundy, Had a look. Looks sweet. Have E-mailed you information. My type of Fundamentals etc. but no free money in the kitty at the moment. Putr it into my list of shares I like to have.

Fundamentalist - 17 Jan 2006 15:43 - 569 of 1009

Cheers Fred

optomistic - 17 Jan 2006 15:55 - 570 of 1009

Trading statement......sp + 2.5p now making it look a nil event!!

pachandl - 17 Jan 2006 15:57 - 571 of 1009

Rather disappointing slide this afternoon but the uptrend stays intact. I would expect more follow-through buy orders in the next 2 weeks from the bigger boys. Anyway, as an investor rather than trader I am more than happy with today's rns (although I must admit that I had decided to sell at the old 36p just before the sp reversed - unfortunately, I failed to act in time!).

Fred1new - 17 Jan 2006 16:08 - 572 of 1009

Yes! So should I have. If ONLY!







Sod it.

Some clever B with a name starting with F did get it right.

Fundamentalist - 17 Jan 2006 16:11 - 573 of 1009

:-)

Douggie - 18 Jan 2006 10:15 - 574 of 1009

mournin FRed nothing changed ......... back to pre RNS sp

pachandl - 18 Jan 2006 11:20 - 575 of 1009

Everything has gone red, or do I need to see an optician?

skyhigh - 18 Jan 2006 11:29 - 576 of 1009

Bad day all round for the markets...spooked! Re; Japan Nikki fell heavily due to JPN market suspension..re: fraud story...Oil up and other things....opportunity for profit taking on shares like RTD which have done well since Xmas..
Need to wait for confidence tor be restored... may take days or a week or two.. (IMHO)

pachandl - 18 Jan 2006 12:21 - 577 of 1009

Yes, a double whammy for me as I am heavily into Japan UTs (still, they were rising too quickly so everyone was calling for a market correction - tho' not for the current reason).

55011 - 18 Jan 2006 13:08 - 578 of 1009

Looking at today's trades, the biggest, over 10,000 shares, are on the "buy" side.

Furthermore, yet again, the online is skewed against the big buyers, 7,500 on the offer against 37,500 on the bid.

Keep the faith!

55011 - 19 Jan 2006 14:22 - 579 of 1009

Still edging upwards, drawing ahead of the moving averages. Volumes picking up too, with a greater proportion going through the order book.

Fred1new - 19 Jan 2006 15:17 - 580 of 1009

Time to club together and pay for aother holiday for Douggie. Could see 180 before he comes back.

8-)

55011 - 19 Jan 2006 16:52 - 581 of 1009

Odd that it marked time for an hour this afternoon. Apparently Wins and MLSB were holding firm on the offer. Until the very end, no one was willing to undercut them to get a quick sale, let alone accept the 150p stated bid.

Douggie - 23 Jan 2006 09:57 - 582 of 1009

:o(

Douggie - 23 Jan 2006 16:44 - 583 of 1009

...;o\

Fred1new - 23 Jan 2006 17:12 - 584 of 1009

~|: o >, More Patience or Prudence I am afraid. It is up about 20% since October




























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