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TULLOW OIL--stands for too low!! (TLW)     

moneyplus - 14 Sep 2005 13:17

The CEO states Tullow sp is much too low and I bought in on the comments---todays results are excellent and I feel this one is being overlooked on here. check it out bargain hunters-I'd welcome some expert feedback!

cynic - 06 Feb 2014 12:37 - 569 of 906

for all that, traffic remains exceptionally heavy

HARRYCAT - 07 Feb 2014 08:43 - 570 of 906

Fregate wildcat well in Mauritania currently drilling and expected to announce result soon. Market expecting a duster, so anything commercial and the sp will reflect that.....bl**dy quickly!

halifax - 11 Feb 2014 12:19 - 571 of 906

cynic results tomorrow!

cynic - 11 Feb 2014 12:30 - 572 of 906

not holding my breath i must confess :-) or do i mean :-(

halifax - 12 Feb 2014 09:46 - 573 of 906

cynic you are right to keep breathing, profits down 72% somewhat less than scintillating.

cynic - 12 Feb 2014 12:09 - 574 of 906

though interestingly ....

Tullow reported 2013 operating profit of $381 million, a 68 percent fall on the year before but ahead of a consensus forecast of $349.7 million

rekirkham - 12 Feb 2014 14:42 - 575 of 906

Look beyond todays figures -
Revenues up, Gross profit up,
The reduction should be non reoccurring as relates to drilling provision write downs
and, is it none reoccurring capital profits. I think it should still bounce back ??

Your truly - Optimistic

halifax - 12 Feb 2014 17:04 - 576 of 906

rek the problem with these exploration oilies is the profit generally ends up in the ground or sea and not in the shareholders bank account. the only winners are the oil service companies, we wonder who owns them?

halifax - 12 Feb 2014 17:12 - 577 of 906

sp finished sub £8 @792p not looking too healthy.

cynic - 12 Feb 2014 17:32 - 578 of 906

to have and to hold, from this day forth :-)

rekirkham - 13 Feb 2014 09:46 - 579 of 906

I do - we are now married - you may kiss something .........

rekirkham - 31 Mar 2014 16:53 - 580 of 906

Bought 6000 at 748 p at 4.24 pm today, probably the cheapest buy for about six years.

At closing auction ( 4.34 pm ) sales of over 1,000,000 went through at 749 p
I hope some people are closing off large long positions -----
or otherwise I hope they do not know something I do not ????????

I hope to sell for 10 p or more profit over this week ?????????????

rekirkham - 31 Mar 2014 17:06 - 581 of 906

correction - cheapest buy for five years, not six years and
closing auction sale went through at 748.50 p

May God bless me this week -

Getting warmer now in Benidorm now, but I have still not hit the sea waters as yet.
Where are you off to this year - Mr Cynic

cynic - 31 Mar 2014 17:24 - 582 of 906

biz - spain, dubai, chicago
hol - provence and around moulins cycling

HARRYCAT - 31 Mar 2014 17:27 - 583 of 906

Chart.aspx?Provider=EOD&Code=TLW&Size=62

HARRYCAT - 03 Apr 2014 11:20 - 584 of 906

Lengthy UBS note out today:
"The investment case for Tullow shares has clearly changed. Less evident for the time being is the high impact offshore explorer. In its place is a different animal, with greater leverage to development risk but with significant onshore exploration upside. The reasons for the change lie we believe in available opportunity set, a change in the competitive environment and perhaps some reduced risk tolerance after two years of high profile dry holes.
Positively, the development portfolio of Tullow is high quality and it is affordable. While Tullow strategy emphasises value realisation it isn’t forced to sell if current market conditions preclude realising full value. And although the drilling portfolio is arguably lower risk it actually still has some big offshore wildcats and more importantly offers the upside of major basin-opening derisking upside in Kenya and Ethiopia, the potential value of which is at least on a par with a big deepwater discovery (£1-2/share).
The share price performance clearly reflects some of the exploration disappointment and arguably a reduced emphasis among institutional investors on the E&P sub sector as a whole. But we think with the share price having approximately halved in 2 years, even taking a more conservative view of valuation and the likely share price relationship to that valuation still sees an investment opportunity skewed to the upside. This is a well-financed company, with a proven development track-record, a strong asset portfolio, material exploration upside, decent downside protection acquirable at an attractive price while the cycle is not currently in its favour.
We have reduced the target price to 900p from 925p set at a 15% discount to a risked NAV of 1,057p. This represents 20% share price upside from current levels.
Upside scenario
From an operational perspective there are a significant number of wells this year. Just the process of drilling the 12 month well programme targets ~1.2bn boe. We see potentially £1-2/share additional NAV from any successful new basin openers in Kenya/Ethiopia. Any large disposal at or around NAV would close the 40% upside to NAV in the shares. Historically, too, UK E&P M&A has been done at ~40% to the share price. From a macro perspective a $10/% change in our long term oil price forecast from $92/bbl to $102/bbl would see risked NAV increase by 9% (assuming normalised returns on incremental projects). Near term earnings would rise by 35%.
Downside scenario
Weak outcomes to the exploration campaign could well see the shares de-rate further in the way that some of the dry holes impacted Tullow in 2012 and 2013. The downside in the shares might be to a commercial plus contingent NAV which is ~575p. A one delay to any of the larger projects (TEN, Jubilee FF, Uganda) would each have an 8p impact to NAV. From a macro perspective a $10/% change in oil price impacts NAV by 9%. It would also see current debt capacity reached by 2017.

rekirkham - 04 Aug 2014 13:54 - 585 of 906

What price is TLW worth now ? Where is the near bottom ? Who knows ?

Did it not bounce back last time on false takeover rumours ? I think so.

Do we need some up to date Broker report on this ?

Any comments, as could now be looking interesting ?

HARRYCAT - 28 Aug 2014 08:35 - 586 of 906

Tullow Oil exploration and appraisal update in Kenya
28 August 2014 - Tullow Oil plc ("Tullow") announces the successful results from a series of exploration, appraisal and testing activities conducted in Blocks 10BB and 13T onshore Kenya.

Etom-1 exploration well
The Etom-1 well in Block 13T is the most northerly well drilled to date in the South Lokichar basin, 6.5 km north of the previous Agete-1 discovery. The well encountered approximately 10 metres of net oil pay, extending the proven oil basin significantly northwards. Based on this result the ongoing 550 sq km 3D seismic survey in the South Lokichar basin has been extended to cover a further 247sq km in this northern area, including several similar prospects which are scheduled to be drilled in 2015.

The Weatherford 804 rig drilled the Etom-1 well to a final depth of 2,000 metres. The well will be suspended for use in future appraisal and development operations, following which the rig will move to drill the Kodos-1 well in September 2014 to test the first of several prospects identified in the neighbouring Kerio Basin.

Amosing-2 appraisal well
The Amosing-2 well in Block 10BB is the first appraisal well on the Amosing field discovered in January 2014, and was drilled from the Amosing-1 well pad. The well was deviated 1,350 metres towards the northeast and downdip from the discovery well to calibrate the oil-water contacts of the several oil pools identified in Amosing-1. The Amosing-2 well encountered up to 30 metres net oil pay. As planned, the well was then sidetracked back to some 400 metres from the discovery well to provide additional insight into reservoir distribution in the area and for use in interference testing, planned to start later in 2014. The Amosing-2A sidetrack encountered up to 90 metres net oil pay in several oil pools.

The Sakson PR5 rig drilled Amosing-2 to a final depth of 2,878 metres and the Amosing-2A sidetrack to a final depth of 2,165 metres. The rig will now be moved to explore the southern extent of the South Lokichar basin to drill the Ekosowan-1 well in September 2014, 11.9 km south east of the Amosing-1 well.

Ngamia-3 appraisal well
The Ngamia-3 well in Block 10BB continued the appraisal of the Ngamia field. The well was successfully drilled 1.6 km north of the Ngamia-1 discovery well and encountered 150 metres of net oil pay in both Auwerwer and Lokone reservoirs. The well has been suspended for likely use in future interference testing, appraisal and development activities.

The Marriott PR46 rig drilled Ngamia-3 to a final depth of 2,700 metres. The rig will now be moved to continue the appraisal of the Ngamia field, drilling the Ngamia-4 and Ngamia-5 wells which are planned to be used in an interference testing programme in the Ngamia field.

Ewoi-1 flow test
The SMP-105 testing/workover rig recently completed testing activities at the Ewoi-1 well. The well demonstrated good permeability in the water-bearing Lokone reservoirs and a programme to target these updip is under consideration. Flow rates from the Auwerwer reservoir DST were limited to around 50 bopd, potentially due to the high wax content and shallow depth of this DST.

The lightweight rig is currently testing the Twiga South-2A appraisal well where two to three tests are planned.

Tullow Operates Blocks 10BB and 13T with 50% equity and is partnered by Africa Oil Corporation, also with 50%.

Commenting today, Angus McCoss, Exploration Director, said:
"Etom-1 has successfully extended the South Lokichar rift bounding fault play northwards and we look forward to testing the southern area of the basin with Ekosowan-1. Continued success in appraisal of the Ngamia and Amosing fields reinforces our belief that the South Lokichar basin holds very considerable potential which we hope to replicate in additional basins. The next basin-opening test will be in the neighbouring Kerio Basin, with the Kodos-1 well expected to spud in early September".

HARRYCAT - 05 Sep 2014 08:13 - 587 of 906

Tullow agrees gas assets sale in Netherlands Blocks L&Q
5 September 2014 - Tullow Oil plc ("Tullow" or "the Group") announces that its subsidiary Tullow Exploration & Production B.V., has entered into an agreement to sell its operated and non-operated L12/L15 block interests and non-operated Q4 and Q5 block interests to AU Energy B.V., a subsidiary of Mercuria Energy Group Limited for a consideration of €62.7 million (US$81.1 million). The transaction involves the sale of a subsidiary, Tullow Netherlands B.V., which will, at the time of completion, hold all Tullow Oil L12/L15 and Q4 and Q5 interests. The transaction has an effective date of 1 January 2014 and completion, expected during early 2015, is conditional upon ministerial consent of the intra-group transfer of the L12/L15 and Q block non-operated licence interests to Tullow Netherlands B.V.

The Tullow L12/L15 and Q block portfolio comprises a suite of seven licence interests and six developed fields producing 1,500 boepd net to Tullow. Tullow's guidance for North Sea production will be revised appropriately when this sale completes.

Aidan Heavey, Chief Executive of Tullow Oil plc, commented today,
"The sale of the Tullow's interests in Blocks L & Q is a further step towards the Group's planned divestment of our North Sea gas assets in order to focus our business on conventional light oil. The previously announced agreement to sell part of our interests in the UK Schooner and Ketch unit to Faroe Petroleum for a total consideration of
US$75.6 million is on track to complete before the end of the year, and the divestment of our remaining UK & Dutch gas assets is progressing well."

HARRYCAT - 10 Oct 2014 07:42 - 588 of 906

Well update - Sputnik-1 offshore Gabon
10 October 2014 - Perenco, Tullow Oil's partner in the Arouwe block offshore Gabon, today issued the following operational update.

"Perenco announces that the Sputnik-1 well, targeting a pre-salt structure in Gabon's offshore Arouwe block, has encountered non commercial hydrocarbon pay in up to 300 metres of net sandstone reservoir.

The Vantage Tungsten Explorer drill ship, drilled Sputnik-1 to a final depth of 4,868 metres in water depths of 1,023 metres.

The rig will now leave the Arouwe block and the results of this well will be incorporated into wider understanding of the region."

Tullow has a 35% interest in the Arouwe block with partners Perenco (35%, Operator) and ExxonMobil (30%).

Commenting on today's announcement, Angus McCoss, Exploration Director, said:
"This is an encouraging result from the pre-salt play, offshore Gabon. Having found a petroleum system, we will now take the data from this well and integrate it with our seismic data to discuss with partners our next steps for the licence."
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