up another 10% with 3m traded already


gordon geko - 15 Oct'04 - 16:27 - 37 of 41 edit



where too next week ?


Andy - 15 Oct'04 - 17:58 - 38 of 41


gorndon,

well IF the weekend newspapers mention FOGL, we may continue with the rise for a while, but not sure how anyone can predict with any degree of accuracy where the price will end up.

I still feel it has more to go, as there is massive potential here, so may well top up on Monday.


wilbs - 15 Oct'04 - 19:11 - 39 of 41


I agree, there is a masive potential here but not for a few years. DYOR and you will see why. Im gonna buy but will wait till it drops in price.

wilbs


Andy - 15 Oct'04 - 19:44 - 40 of 41


wilbs,

I have DMOR, I have read the prspectus several times.

Potential is what is being traded here, and IF a resource is confirmed, FOGL will race away.

I'm buying now in order to be in at the start, rather than wait for the price to rise against me later, if of course they are sucessful.

Asian Energy is an example of a resource being defined, and look what hapenned there!

I am happy to hold at this level, and as for the price falling, maybe once the initial interest dies diown, unless they release some news of course!

we will see.



wilbs - 17 Oct'04 - 08:34 - 41 of 41


I totaly agree with you andy.

I have bought into many shares too early at a high price only to watch them fall and kick myself as I could of bought them much cheaper.
I will have to keep a close eye on things.

There is a good article on www.oilbarrel.com about FOGL.
Are you also thinking about buying into Hardman, Falkland Island Holdings?

Regards,

wilbs

the oilbarrel article
Falkland Oil & Gas Says Fundraising Oversubcribed
AFX News Limited Wednesday, October 13, 2004


Falkland Oil and Gas Ltd said its offer to raise 2 mln stg via the issue of 5 mln shares at 40 pence each has been oversubscribed. The group said it received applications for 17.45 mln shares, representing 6.98 mln stg. "As a result....applications will not all be settled in full," it said. The minimum subscription under the offer was for 2,500 shares, or 1,000 stg, and all valid applications will receive at least this amount, it added. "Applicants will also receive 12.415 pct of the amount they have applied for in excess of 2,500 shares." In a separate statement, Falkland Islands Holdings PLC said its shareholding will represent 18.1 pct of Falkland Oil and Gas's enlarged share capital.

London-based Falkland Oil & Gas Limited (FOGL) has identified eight leads from existing 2D seismic in its seven licenses off the southern coast of the Falkland Islands, spokesperson Ben Brewerton told BNamericas.

The leads range from 211 million barrels (mb) to 626mb and could contain a total 3.75 billion barrels, Brewerton said. Each of the seven blocks has at least one lead in it.

FOGL identified the leads by re-interpreting 2D seismic work carried out in the 1990s and it plans to redo some of the seismic in December this year, followed by a 3D seismic program in 2005.

The company could then consider farming-in a partner to help fund drilling on specific targets in 2006-2007, Brewerton said.

To fund the 3D program, FOGL announced it has raised 10mn pounds (US$18mn) through a private placement of 25 million shares at 40 pence per share, FOGL said in a statement.

FOGL has announced a public offering of a further 5 million shares at 40p/share, which must be subscribed by October 12.

If the offer is fully subscribed, FOGL will raise an additional 2mn pounds before expenses, meaning that the net proceeds of the placing and offer will be about 11mn pounds. The company would then list on London's junior AIM market with a market value of 32mn pounds.

Dealings in the shares are expected to start October 14. KBC Peel Hunt has been appointed as nominated adviser and broker to FOGL.

FOGL was formed in May 2004 as a joint venture between Falkland Islands Holdings, Global Petroleum and RAB Special Situations.

Shareholdings in FOGL prior to the placing and offer are: Falkland Islands Holdings 28.9%; Global Petroleum 25.7%; and RAB Special Situations 45.4%.

FOGL has a 77.5% interest in seven exploration licenses covering approximately 33,700 sq. km. to the south of the Falkland Islands. Australia's Hardman Resources has the remaining 22.5% interest.

About Business News Americas: Business News Americas is a multilingual news and business information service that covers the most important original stories in 11 different business sectors throughout Latin America everyday. Visit BNamericas to access our real-time news reports, 7-year archive, Fact File company

Falkland Oil and Gas Ltd said it placed 25 mln shares at 40 pence each to raise 10 mln stg before expenses.

The company, which expects its shares to begin trading on the Alternative Investment Market on Oct 14, also announces a public offer of a further 5 mln shares at 40p a share. Assuming the maximum number of shares available are subscribed, it will raise an additional 2 mln stg before expenses.

Falkland Oil, which holds a 77.5 pct interest in seven exploration licences covering about 33,700 sq km to the south and east of the Falkland Islands, will have a market capitalisation of 32 mln stg on admission to AIM and net proceeds from the placing and offer will be about 11 mln stg.

Following the placing, Falkland Islands Holdings PLC's interest in Falkland Oil will be 18.1 pct.

Latest news on FOGL's Falklands prospects

RNS Number:7745L
Global Petroleum Ltd
03 May 2005

3 May 2005

Global Petroleum Limited ('Global')

ANNOUNCEMENT RE: FALKLAND OIL AND GAS LIMITED

Global Petroleum Limited (AIM / ASX: GBP), an Australian-based oil and gas
exploration company, advises that Falkland Oil and Gas Limited (FOGL) made the
attached release on the 3rd of May 2005.

This announcement suggests that Global's 16.06% shareholding (i.e. 12.848
million shares) in FOGL could potentially have quite significant value for
Global shareholders. A FOGL share price of #1/share translates to approximately
19c per Global share (GBP 8p/Global share).

Further information about FOGL's Falkland Island Oil & Gas Project can be found
in a presentation that FOGL has posted on its website www.fogl.co.uk

Further information:

Global Petroleum Limited
Dr John Armstrong, Executive Chairman +61 (0) 7 3211 1122

Bell Pottinger Corporate & Financial
Nick Lambert +44 (0) 7811 358 764

Tuesday 3rd May 2005

Falkland Oil and Gas Limited

("FOGL" or "the company")

Significant increase in number of identified leads

Enhanced possibility of a new petroleum province
in the South and East Falkland Basins

FOGL announces that it has completed its current 9,450 km 2D seismic data
acquisition programme over most of its licence area. The initial interpretation
of the preliminary processed records from the survey has proved encouraging and
greatly exceeds the Company's initial expectations.

The programme has indicated a larger and more diverse project than originally
anticipated and has identified numerous possible drill targets, with indications
that some could potentially be of significant size.

FOGL has now identified approximately 130 leads,(1) far in excess of the eight
(8) leads identified at the time of its AIM IPO in October 2004. Given the
positive results of the survey, FOGL now plans to increase the scope of its
exploration programme far beyond that envisaged at the time of the IPO.

Key points:

* Approximately 130 leads identified, a number of which appear capable of
containing recoverable reserves in excess of 200 million barrels

* FOGL now represents a larger and more diverse project than originally
anticipated

* Encouraging signs that oil and gas could be present

* Further work is planned targeting defining 20 drillable prospects by
about mid-2006

* FOGL is targeting drilling of the first well in 2007

* Already an enhanced possibility of project success

* Licences cover area equivalent to the North Sea Southern Gas Basin and
Central Graben

* Cash position of #10.9 million as at 31 March 2005. FOGL is evaluating
its funding requirements and the source of funds for the increased exploration
programme

John Armstrong, Executive Chairman of FOGL, said:

"In my opinion, this is the most exciting project I've seen for many years. The
results of the 2D seismic are encouraging; the number of leads identified has
far exceeded our most optimistic estimates and we believe it has greatly
enhanced FOGL's prospects. It is clear that the scope of work needed to maximise
the potential of our acreages has increased significantly.

"It is important to remember that, while the leads identified to date each have
seismic expression which indicates the possible presence of a drillable
prospect, when fully mapped, and with the benefit of further data, such leads
may not have all the characteristics necessary to become drillable prospects.
Nevertheless, the large number of leads distributed across several playtypes
suggests that a number of the leads could become technically sound and
potentially economically viable drill prospects. It is the Company's goal to
identify and define 20 such prospects in the immediate future so that they can
be considered for drilling in 2007.

"We have made a lot of progress in the six months since our AIM IPO and the
results to date have been remarkable. Although there is a long way to go, it now
seems quite possible that the Falkland Islands could become a new petroleum
province by the end of the decade."

Hydrocarbon Indicators

Initial interpretation of the new data gives considerable cause for optimism.
The preliminary results of the survey identify numerous Direct Hydrocarbon
Indicators (DHI's) pointing to the presence of working petroleum systems. The
DHI's include gas chimneys, amplitudes and possibly gas hydrates. The leads are
large and diverse, with some leads possibly covering areas of 300 to 500 sq km,
sufficient to hold large reserves of oil or gas. There is also a wide range of
play types with several different styles identified.

Exploration Programme & Funding Arrangements

FOGL plans to conduct further seismic surveys targeting all the leads but with
particular emphasis on the approximately 50 most promising. The aim will be to
develop 20 high quality, technically sound and potentially economically viable
drilling prospects. The Company then intends to develop a multi-well drilling
programme which may be able to begin in 2007.

Full details of the exploration programme are still to be finalised but given
the increased number of identified leads the company expects to expand
significantly the scope of the exploration programme.

Although FOGL had net cash of #10.9 million as at 31 March 2005, the increased
scope of the programme will require additional funding and the Board is
currently considering its options. A further statement on the funding
arrangements and the full details of the programme will be announced soon.

Potential Resources

The extent and depth of the basin suggests that, if it exists, the hydrocarbon
resource could be of a major scale. According to estimates by MBA Petroleum
Consultants, an independent consultant, 1,250 billion barrels of oil / oil
equivalent could have been generated in and in the vicinity of FOGL's licences.

Scott Pickford, petroleum engineers, made an independent assessment of the
initial eight (8) leads and concluded that each had the potential to contain
between 200 million and 600 million barrels of recoverable oil(2). It is
expected that Scott Pickford will be contracted to repeat the process and make
an independent judgement on the potential resources indicated by the new data.
Its findings will be announced on completion of the processing and
interpretation which is expected to be in the third quarter of this year.

An overview presentation will be posted on the FOGL website giving a summary of
the results announced here. Technical information including maps and seismic
lines will be posted on the Company's website in the near future.

www.fogl.co.uk

Enquiries:

FOGL

John Armstrong, Executive Chairman + 61 (0) 7 3211 1122 (+9 hrs GMT)
David Hudd, Deputy Chairman 07771 893 267

College Hill
Ben Brewerton 020 7457 2020

(1) a 'lead' is a feature that requires further technical appraisal prior to a
decision to drill

(2) P50 recoverable oil as estimated by Scott Pickford, a consultancy
specialising in geology, petroleum engineering and economic analyses, in 2004
(IPO Prospectus)

Falkland sounds upbeat note
James Rossiter, Evening Standard
20 May 2005
THE head of Falkland Oil and Gas was today gushing with confidence about prospects within the old 200-mile exclusion zone mapped out around the islands during Britain's 1982 war with Argentina.
No drilling is targeted before 2007 yet the chairman of the Aim-listed firm, John Armstrong, said today: 'This is the most exciting project I've been involved in for some years and there is a real chance the Falkland Islands will become a new petroleum province.'
His enthusiasm comes barely a day after City analysts called for executives at Britain's growing number of exploration companies to temper their upbeat statements following the 60% slump in Regal Petroleum's shares on Wednesday.
Regal founder Frank Timis is quitting as chief executive following the dramatic revelation this week that, after a series of drilling tests, it will not be able to extract commercial quantities of oil from its Greek Kallirachi-2 project.
But Falkland deputy chairman David Hudd insisted his firm's prospects for finding oil were on course as he confirmed other oil companies had approached it to help finance the exploration of its 329 blocks.
Falkland is sitting on 11m of cash after raising 12m from its Aim listing last September.
Hudd said: 'I am not saying there is necessarily oil but leads are much better than when we floated the company.
'We started off with eight leads. There are now 130 on which further work could be done - some of which could become a prospect and then we can decide if we will drill.'
Delivering a 293,692 pre-tax loss for its 10 months' trading to 31 March, he added: 'We have looked at other companies in the sector which have attracted adverse publicity and we are certainly not doing anything other than being conservative.'
Falkland's biggest shareholder are funds controlled by RAB Capital, also a big investor in Sudan oil explorer White Nile, due to restart trading on Aim on Monday.
******************
Hope this helps trading on Monday in both FOGL and GBP shares.

RNS Number:7536M
Global Petroleum Ltd
25 May 2005


25 May 2005

Global Petroleum Limited

Falkland Oil and Gas Limited - Preliminary Results

ASX-listed oil and gas explorer Global Petroleum Limited (GBP) advises that
Falkland Oil and Gas Limited ("FOGL") released its Preliminary Results, for the
period ended 31 March 2005, on 20 May 2005.

Global's shareholding in FOGL is 16.06% or 12.848 million shares.

The full release is available at: www.fogl.co.uk

Further information:

Global Petroleum Limited
Dr John Armstrong, Executive Chairman +61 (0) 7 3211 1122

Bell Pottinger Corporate & Financial
Nick Lambert +44 (0) 20 7861 3232

I fancy this report has all the Majors eying the action offshore Falklands and Kenya when BP says global oil reserves growth stalled in 2004. Another sound reason to be in FOGL and GBP at the moment I think!!


BP says global oil reserves growth stalled in 2004
Tue 14 Jun, 2005 15:09
By Tom Bergin, European Oil and Gas Correspondent

LONDON (Reuters) - Growth in the world's oil and gas reserves stalled last year, a report from oil giant BP showed on Tuesday, bucking a trend that has historically seen new discoveries more than match production.

The BP Statistical Review of World Energy, compiled from official government figures, will reinforce concerns about the ability of global oil supplies to match surging consumption, which grew 3.4 percent in 2004.
The world had 1,188.6 billion barrels of oil reserves at the end of 2004, compared to 1,188.3 billion at the end of 2003, BP, the world's second largest oil firm by market capitalisation, said.

The 0.02 percent growth rate was the lowest since 1990 and compares with a 10-year average above 1.5 percent per annum.

Last year's almost imperceptible rise in oil reserves came despite high prices, which normally help by encouraging new exploration and by making previously uneconomic resources commercial.

Gas fared only slightly better with reserves growing 0.18 percent, but this was the lowest growth rate in over 20 years, and well below the 10-year average of more than 2 percent each year.

The figures contrast with BP's view, regularly voiced by Chief Executive John Browne, that the world is not facing a supply crunch.

However, the data echoes the oil majors' own difficulties in finding oil. Last year, the biggest international firms replaced around 70 percent of the oil and gas they pumped with new finds, analysts said.

Even BP, one of the better explorers in the industry, failed to achieve the 100 percent reserve replacement ratio that shows a firm's resource base is not shrinking.
The report also points to another worrying trend for the oil majors. The gap between their anaemic reserve replacement ratio and an effective 100 percent ratio globally supports investors' fears that the biggest oil companies will lose market share.

Analysts have predicted firms like BP and U.S. rival Exxon Mobil will become increasingly constrained in finding new exploration opportunities in the future because the biggest hydrocarbon reserves look set to be controlled by state-owned oil and gas companies in Russia, Venezuela and the Gulf states.

BP cautioned that pundits have been predicting the imminent depletion of reserves for a century and added that since different governments use different methodologies to calculate proved reserves, it is hard to draw inferences from its review, which is published annually.

mmiller555,

Two good rises in two days, makes me feel some news is imminnent!

My bet would be a JV with a major to finance the 3D seismic, and maybe they will just go aead and drill one or two of the most promising 2D targets, if they can obtain a rig of course.

I may even top up a little tomorrow, will wait and see how we start.

Have you read the joint CEO of RAB Special Situations Fund interview in Money Week last week? He recokons this could give you 30 X return (or something massive - sorry not at my desk).

I subscribed on issue and top sliced at 120p. I bought back in again and more at 99.5p yesterday (having missed 91p by 20 minutes first thing in the morning).

This is definitely one to accuumulate.

sd

Stockdog,

Yes I think you are correct there, FOGL has massive potential, and RAB are no slouches when it comes to spotting potential IMO.

I have seen a FOGL presentation, and they are quietly confident that they will find a substantial resource.

RAB started with 45% - have top-sliced since, but still hold 30% of FOGL's equity - pretty committed and they made 2000% return (!) since 2003 on their fund. With a no holds barred fund, they choose FOGL as a major holding - they're no fools.

sd

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=649625

permite me to put the direct link in, inbsuk

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=649625

inbsuk, stockdog,

Thanks, very interesting.

I like the last couple of lines in that article. It sounds as though "hedge fund wives" are similar creatures to footballers wives.

Progress Report Friday 1 July 2005

Falkland Oil and Gas Limited (FOGL) reports that as of the 1st of July 2005,
1,641 km of the approximately 8,000 km total had been recorded. For five days
of the past week, the vessel has been transiting to Punta Arenas for a port call.

Short/Medium terms weakness looks evident.

I think one is on the cards, an opportunity to add soon.

Anyone care to differ?

ariesr - 120 does seem to be a bit of a resistance level, needing some more substantial good news than 2D-seismic progress - like 2D-seismic results would help. So yes it may now drfit lower back to its recent double bottom support level at 87/8p where I last topped up (except I was away from my desk for 20 minutes on the day and only got in at 99p when I got back!).

So with a 30p range to play with could be a good one to spread bet - are there any firms offering this stock?

Otherwise it has to be a long term hold at almost any current price - see Moneyweek's report on RAB Special Situations a coouple of weeks ago. FOGL currently valued at $240m, could be worth $80bn when oil flows in a couple of years time.

So yes, buy on dips below 100p - as much as you can - and hold for a couple of years IMHO.

sd

Ariesr,

On the price action today, I care to differ!

Andy - the SP seems to have successfully punctured the 120p resistance today, but then I wrote my last post yesterday on a falling price. Is that the difference you mentioned, or did you disagree with some other part of my thinking? Interested to hear. I expect further upward action tomorrow, since we ended on an EOD high today.

sd

Stockdog,

I just think the potential here is so huge that with the current high price of oil, FOGL will stay around this level, or even trade higher on anticipation of any news.

Having seen a recent FOGL presentation, I left feeling very optimistic regarding their chances.

I think there are a lot of holders from the float that will hold for the longer term, and BATR, so the free float here is small IMHO.



The chart suggests the downtrend was broken mid June IMO, but it's interesting that we broke 120 today after three previous failures, now we need to see if it an hold above 120p, then previous resistance may become support.

duplicate.

Anyone know why the drop over the last 3 days?