Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).

Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.

cheers GF.

As Cameron has said, the Conservatives only need 23 more seats for a majority!

The prospect of a Labour/SNP alliance should make the UKIPs revert to voting Conservative

David Cameron: Labour facing ‘wipeout’ in Scotland


SCOTT MACNAB
14:51Thursday 16 April 2015
74
HAVE YOUR SAY
DAVID Cameron today said Labour is facing a “wipeout” in Scotland and will be “replaced” by the SNP because it has failed to speak up for the concerns of ordinary voters.

The Prime Minister hit the campaign trail in Glasgow this morning for the party’s Scottish manifesto launch.

I’m responsible for many things, many, many things. The total failure of Labour in Scotland, you cannot lay at my doorstep
David Cameron
Polls suggest the SNP is poised to make sweeping gains from the SNP in next month’s UK election.

The Tory leader warned this would mean the “terrible prospect” of an Ed Miliband government propped up the SNP who would push for their goal of independence.

“Let me address directly this issue about the battle here in Scotland,” Mr Cameron told supporters at the Emirates Arena.

“The fact that Labour is facing a meltdown and is failing to speak out about peoples’ concerns - I’m responsible for many things, many, many things. The total failure of Labour in Scotland, you cannot lay at my doorstep.

“There’s a fact that every single pollster and commentator agrees on that come May 7, Labour are going to have a dreadful time in Scotland and they’re going to be replaced in many, many constituencies by the SNP.”

This means that Ed Miliband cannot become Prime Minister without SNP support, he added.


“That has a consequence for Scotland and it has a consequence for the rest of the United Kingdom,” the Tory leader went on.

“It is an appalling prospect of having a Labour prime minister propped up by a group of people who: A - don’t want to be in that Parliament; B - don’t want to be in that country: C - would like to see the whole thing break up.

“In the meantime they’re going to push for an economy wrecking, borrowing and spending agenda.

“I say this because the country really needs to hear this, voters need to think about this. The ballot papers are about to arrive on the doorsteps. You can stop this from happening, but you can only stop it by electing a Conservative majority government.”


Mr Cameron said two new facts had emerged during the election campaign.

He said: “Fact number one, The Labour party in Scotland is facing wipeout at the hands of the SNP.

“Fact number two the Liberal Democrats are facing wipeout in many parts of the country. What the means is that Ed miliband can only get into Downing Street on the back of support from the Scottish National Party who will exact a terrible price in terms of even more borrowing, even more spending, even more unlimited welfare, even weaker defences.

“That is the terrible prospect that this country faces.”

He added: “The only way you can stop this dreadful outcome is by voting Conservative in England, in Scotland, in Wales and in Northern Ireland. We are the only people that can stop this from happening.”

it will certainly be a very curious situation if SNP, whose underlying and undeniable intent is to separate from the rest of uk, ends up pulling the strings in westminster

John Curtice: Nicola Sturgeon again the star


JOHN CURTICE
23:05Thursday 16 April 2015
5
HAVE YOUR SAY
DOUBTLESS a key reason David Cameron proposed that the five opposition leaders debate amongst themselves was that it would be one less occasion when Ed Miliband would have the chance to persuade voters he is in fact the Prime Minister’s equal.

However, he probably also hoped that the night would prove to be an internecine battle of the Left with Nicola Sturgeon, Leanne Wood and Natalie Bennett giving the Labour leader a hard time for not being radical enough.

Once again Miliband’s chief inquisitor was Nicola Sturgeon
At the beginning it looked as though this would be the dominant theme. In their opening statements the three female leaders all focused on the need for less austerity. Subsequently, in response to a claim from Mr Miliband that he represented a big change from the Conservatives, Nicola Sturgeon delivered one of the best lines of the night, arguing that the change Labour offered was too little and would be no more than a “Tory-lite” government. However, this theme then abated. While Mr Miliband and the three female leaders clearly took different positions on Trident, there was little heated debate about the issue – partly because Mr Miliband seemed concerned to take the opportunity to distance Labour from the war in Iraq and partly because he moved the subject on to Isis, an organisation that nobody was going to defend.

Only towards the end was Mr Miliband once again put under pressure for not being willing to embrace the more radical ideas of the Nationalists and the Greens. Once again his chief inquisitor was Nicola Sturgeon, undoubtedly the most effective performer of the night. She underlined her willingness to put Mr Miliband into Downing Street and “help Labour be bolder”. Miliband unsurprisingly rejected the offer but consequently he was left with the unanswered question of whether he would prefer Mr Cameron to remain in power rather than be helped himself into power by the SNP.

Not least of the reasons why the night did not prove any more difficult for Mr Miliband was the presence of Nigel Farage. The Ukip leader started confidently, pressing his immigration, Europe and anti-establishment buttons.

But he then made the mistake of attacking the audience and, with their sympathy lost, much of the middle of the programme saw Mr Farage on the receiving end of attacks from the other leaders, not least on housing and immigration. And for that, doubtless, Mr Cameron was duly grateful.

• John Curtice is professor of politics, Strathclyde University.


comments


Farage hit the nail on the head, for all the good it will do him. It was a very left leaning audience. Just amazing to hear Nicola Sturgeon gets whoops and cheers from a London Audience.

That was the most astonishing thing about it.

And Ed Miliband looked like Derek Zoolander, pouting and pulling his face into "the incredulous look" when Farage spoke, then "the mad stare into the camera" as he challenged Cameron for the Nth time.

I bet everyone watching thought, "No! We want to see the other 3!". Ed needs to get used to the new political reality...although the chances are that all this is academic and Cameron's calculation that Middle England will balk at "the room full of nutters" running the UK may well lead to another Lib/Con alliance.

That is where my money is right now.


This GE seems to be less and less about actual policies and much more about personalities and how well they "do" before a camera.


Farage was right, the BBC and the audience they selected were left wing. The most interesting thing about the whole evening was Nicola Sturgeon's heels.

Manuel,

One of the symptoms of Senile Dementia is constant repetition!

Another is incessant rumination.

You seem to have both failings.

-------

Get a small writing pad and a small pencil and tie them to your wrists wd write down what you intend posting.

Every time you read the pad it might excite you

That audience was packed with lefties, the beeb ought to be ashamed of itself.

Independently selected my ass, lefty central casting more like!

fred - as you are the master of incessant repetition, we could all take lessons from you ....... now try taking your head out of your arse

Max,

I thought the BBC gave Farage more than adequate time to present himself for what he is and what he stands for.

The audience fully understood his positioning, as will the voters.

Fred.

The audience were four square behind the lefty ladies, all of whom were calling for increased spending...never mind where the money would come from.

The coven even made millibandus look right wing.

This is the problem maybe more like the X factor , realism gone to pot.

Cameron did well to avoid that toxic mix. The public won't like politics shifting that far to the left.

Analysis from IG
The inability of any one party to gain a majority looks to be the only certainty from this election so far.

The latest leader’s debate, albeit without a representative from the Liberal Democrats or Conservatives, could quite easily have just been a three-way debate between Labour, SNP and UKIP. The subsequent client trading activity following this TV debate has seen the chance of no majority increase up to 89%, and the most likely outcome of a Labour minority government increase from 32% up to 35%.

The magic number of seats for a majority or the total for a coalition to reach is 326, and at present the Conservative party is the closest to being able to achieve this on its own with 286 seats. Labour is not too far off the pace with 273 seats, meaning that as things stand at the moment they would both require help from other parties. The Lib Dems have been trying to position themselves as the best placed party to help ‘top up’ seats, but as it is currently projected to gain 24 seats, it may not be enough.

In the debate last night Labour leader Ed Miliband once again stated the party would not look to form a coalition with the SNP, and strongly stated Labour’s desire to keep the unity of the United Kingdom. Ed Miliband knows all too well the PR disaster that would ensue if Labour were seen to limp over the threshold of No.10 with SNP support. Two other reasons why a coalition between them would be difficult is that the SNP is considerably more Left Wing than Labour, and judging by the TV appearances so far you would have to question who out of Ed Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon would be the more likely to wear the trousers.

Any formation of a minority government would be an unstable platform for a government to steer the country through the ongoing issues of maintaining the recovery, while also tackling the country’s debts. Even in power, getting motions passed through the House of Commons would be even more difficult than usually is the case, and could easily see the need for a fresh election much sooner than the normal five-year term.

===============

worth reading the whole of the above!

Sturgeon, Miliband and Clegg are more grown up, mature and sensible than the far right tory party’s present adolescent school boys and absurd Kippers, even if more than two of the latter are elected.

I think that Sturgeon and Miliband in the debates, showed themselves sincere in their values and policies, but still respected one another's differences on certain areas, namely Trident and Devolution for Scotland. The other differences are minor and the reality of government will curb their excesses.

Those differences will be shelved for a five-year period and Scottish referendum on devolution will be left until after a Scottish Parliament Election May 2016 and the SNP have renewed their mandate for such.

If needed, the Trident differences could be settled by Parliamentary Free Vote and anyway with the present rules on devolution of parliament, even a vote against the government would not lead to dissolution of parliament. If necessary, any problem could be dealt with by a following vote of confidence

However, I cannot see that the Lib/Dems, SNP, Labour, or any of the minor parties would be financially solvent enough to take on another general election and would cling together in order to build up their funding in preparation for one in 2020.

(Cameron’s brilliant dodge is backfiring.)

Again, I don’t think the Lib/Dems. would contemplate a coalition, or alliance with the tories, as the both would be too toxic for its party membership as a whole to swallow.

Especially, after the rancour built up during this May’s election process. Also, their core values are similar to Labour and SNP and minor grievances could be sensibly dealt with. The alliance has more to gain than to lose by such agreement.

Also, I will have a guess that Labour will be more receptive to changes in voting system and House of Lords and the “Alliance” will move to proportional representation and reduction in size of the House of Lords, their powers and method of selection.
-====-
Should be fun to watch.

TOSH!!!

Jim Murphy on track for heavy defeat to SNP - poll


18:12Friday 17 April 2015
6
HAVE YOUR SAY
SCOTTISH Labour leader Jim Murphy and shadow foreign secretary Douglas Alexander are on track for heavy defeats to the SNP at the General Election, new constituency polling has indicated.

Lord Ashcroft, the former Conservative peer, found Mr Murphy is nine points behind, while Mr Alexander is losing by 11 points.


The news was no better for the Liberal Democrats, with former leader Charles Kennedy 15 points behind in the race for Ross, Skye and Lochaber, while Jo Swinson, the Business Minister, is 11 points down in East Dunbartonshire.

The polls suggests seven SNP gains across Scotland, with the Tories one point ahead in Berwickshire, Roxborough and Selkirk - which was held by Liberal Democrat Sir Alan Beith.

Lord Ashcroft’s polling also indicated the SNP would gain Glasgow South West from Labour, take North East Fife from the Liberal Democrats and seize Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale from the Tories.

Each constituency poll featured 1,000 voters with surveys completed between April 11 and yesterday.

“There is no gloss that can be put on these polls. They are bad for Scottish Labour and if they are repeated on election day the SNP will have more MPs and David Cameron will walk back into Downing Street”
Scottish Labour spokesman


Lord Ashcroft said: “I wanted to know whether the SNP surge had subsided in places I had previously surveyed; whether it threatened other incumbents, especially Lib Dems; and whether there were any potential surprises in store.

“The answers are no, yes and yes. In the three Labour seats the SNP are further ahead than when I polled them earlier in the year.”


SNP General Election campaign director Angus Robertson said his party was “taking nothing for granted”.

He said: “These constituency polls are very welcome, indicating SNP support continuing to grow across Scotland - encompassing areas which voted No as well as areas which voted Yes. If people place their trust in the SNP on 7 May, our pledge is to be a strong voice at Westminster for the whole of Scotland.

“The polls suggest that our policy to deliver jobs, growth and investment in services in place of Westminster cuts has huge appeal.

“While these polls are encouraging, we will keep working hard to ensure that Scotland’s voice is heard at Westminster with a strong team of SNP MPs.”


A Scottish Labour spokesman said: “There is no gloss that can be put on these polls. They are bad for Scottish Labour and if they are repeated on election day two things will happen - the SNP will have more MPs and David Cameron will walk back into Downing Street again.

“A vote for anyone other than Labour means the Tories will be the largest party across the UK. That would be a disaster for Scotland.

“Only a Labour Government can give working class families in Scotland a fairer shot in life, with our plans to ban exploitative zero hours contracts, increase the minimum wage to at least £8 an hour and work for a living wage.

“Labour is the only anti-austerity party in Scotland. The Tories will impose another five years of their failed austerity, and the SNP’s plan to cut Scotland off from UK-wide taxes would mean extra cuts of £7.6 billion. The only way to get a Labour Government is to vote Labour.”



comments

The fact of the matter is it will be Labour or Conservative in power!

I am voting Conservative but could opt for Labour if it turns out my vote could help keep the SNP out.

That is my main goal, to prevent the SNP getting any say in parliament!

They have had seven years in Scotland and had a majority and how have they used this majority?

To keep incompetent SNP in post!

We do not need the SNP to help us as they are like rising damp, they seep and destroy but so slowly you don't even know it is happening until it is too late!

Vote Conservative or Labour and which ever you choose you vote will count!



I am sorry for the rank and file Labourites. Not Murphy and Curran and co because they have demonstrated that they are self serving and careerist but the honest people of the Labour movement who genuinely want to help their fellow man. I hope that they can reclaIm their party and they will be able reclaim their place in Scottish politics.



that would be the end of dim jim claiming for cans of irnbru on his commons expenses a bill the taxpayer picks up, and wee dougie will never again have to pay back expenses he has over claimed and was not entitled to.



Folly, utter folly. The only good news is that it can be put right but only after suffering 5 more years of a Conservative Government and after up to £40B of budget shortfall in Scotland depending on when the SNP achieve their goal of FFA.

a good observation from FT ....

Labour and the Tories are stuck with the reputations they have, and the last three weeks of the campaign will reveal which is the least repellent

============

sign of the times and slipping grammatical standards
as there are only two options mentioned, it should of course be "less" and not "least"

Ukip says BBC 'exposed' over left-wing debate audience
Figures released by BBC show that only 58 members of the audience were Conservative or Ukip supporters compared with about 102 who supported left-leaning parties


By Emily Gosden, Steven Swinford and Christopher Hope7:00PM BST 17 Apr 2015
Nigel Farage has claimed the BBC has been “exposed” after it was forced to admit that nearly twice as many members of the studio audience for the Challengers’ Debate were "left-wing" as were Conservative or Ukip supporters.
The Ukip leader was booed during Thursday night’s debate after claiming it was a “remarkable audience even by the left-wing standards of the BBC”.
He added on Friday that it was "completely obvious that we did not have an audience reflective of public opinion" and insisted: "I didn't lose my rag."
The BBC initially refused to disclose the political make-up of the audience but eventually released figures on Friday afternoon.
They showed that, of the 200-strong audience, about 58 were Conservative or Ukip supporters while about 102 supported left-leaning parties - Labour, the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid Cymru or the SNP – and the rest were undecided.


Mr Farage said: "If you were to put Ukip and the Conservatives on the centre-right in current opinion polls, we are on about 49 per cent between us. If the audience make-up didn't reflect that then it's wrong.”
He added: “There was a whole feel to the thing that frankly it wasn't as it was intended to be. It just exposes them [the BBC] and firms up the views of people watching it. I would say it's nul points for the BBC."
Jeremy Hunt, the Conservative health secretary, also questioned the audience make-up, saying: “The need to do something about immigration is something where Nigel Farage was more in touch with the British public than perhaps the studio audience were.”
The BBC said that all broadcasters and political parties involved in this year’s live TV debates had agreed for an independent polling organisation to select the audience. The BBC used ICM and “set out clear objectives to ensure there [was] a broad range of political preferences”.


A spokesman said: “We asked the polling company to work to proportions which take account of a number of factors in recruiting the audience – in other words, recent polling figures are only part of the equation. We also look at past electoral support, as well as the different party political make-up in different parts of the UK.”
About 20 per cent of the audience were undecided. Of those who were decided there were five Conservative voters for every five Labour, four Lib Dem, three Ukip, two SNP, two Green and one Plaid Cymru voter, the BBC said.
An ITV spokesman said the audience for its seven-way debate reflected the same proportions.
James Harding, head of news and current affairs at the BBC, said that the booing of Nigel Farage reflected the audience getting “really engaged”.


Thursday night's debate averaged 4.27 million viewers between 8pm and 9.30pm, according to data from Attentional - down from the 7 million that watched the seven-way leaders debate on ITV.

.

Jim Murphy and Douglas Alexander 'to lose their seats'
New polling by Lord Ashcroft shows the Scottish Labour leader and the party's Uk election chief are on course to lose their seats in an SNP landslide.

Jim Murphy and Douglas Alexander are to lose their seats to the SNP in the general election, according to an astonishing new opinion poll that lays bare the devastating scale of the rout facing Labour in Scotland.

The detailed constituency surveys by Lord Ashcroft show that Mr Murphy, the Scottish Labour leader, and Mr Alexander, the party’s UK election campaign coordinator, are both on course for defeat after the Nationalists extended their already huge lead.

Labour last night said that “no gloss” could be put on the poll and claimed that if the findings become reality then “David Cameron will walk back into Downing Street again.”

David Mundell, the only Conservative MP in Scotland, is now also narrowly trailing the SNP, although the Tories could avoid another wipeout north of the Border by winning a neighbouring seat.

The SNP is also on course to take a series of Liberal Democrat seats, with even Charles Kennedy, their popular former leader, falling 15 points behind the Nationalists in his Highlands constituency.

But the polling, unveiled less than three weeks until the election, made the grimmest reading for Labour and overshadowed Mr Murphy unveiling his party’s Scottish manifesto.

It is expected to prompt further claims that the only way Ed Miliband can enter Downing Street is with the help of the SNP. The Labour leader has rejected a coalition but refused four times on Friday to rule out a less formal confidence-and-supply or vote-by-vote arrangement.

The survey of eight constituencies, five of which Lord Ashcroft has polled before, showed massive swings of support to the SNP since the 2010 general election.

The Nationalists have surged from the fourth place they achieved in East Renfrewshire at the last election to first thanks to a huge 26.5 per cent swing away from Labour. The well-off area was once the Conservatives’ safest seat in Scotland.

Mr Murphy was one point ahead when the former Tory party treasurer polled the seat in February, but this has since turned into a nine-point advantage for the SNP despite his high-profile role in the campaign.

But Lord Ashcroft said the Scottish Labour leader could be saved by Tory supporters, who forma quarter of the electorate in the constituency, voting tactically for him to keep out the SNP.

Conservative voters in the seat said they were less likely to say they would rule out voting Labour (64 per cent) than would rule out the SNP (87 per cent).

The survey found the SNP has extended its lead from eight to eleven points in the Paisley and Renfrewshire South being defended by Mr Alexander, the Shadow Foreign Secretary.

Mr Mundell was in a dead heat with the SNP in his Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale seat when the seat was polled two months ago but the updated survey said the Nationalists had pulled two points ahead.

Lord Ashcroft said this was “well within the margin of error and therefore too close to call.”

The Conservatives are on course to win by a whisker their key target seat of Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, where they are trying to oust Michael Moore, the former Liberal Democrat Scottish Secretary.

The poll put support for the Tories on 30 per cent, with the SNP on 29 per cent and the Lib Dems 28 per cent in a three-way fight.

Lord Ashcroft suggested tactical voting by Labour supporters could decide the result and noted they were more likely to back the Lib Dems than the Tories. However, he questioned how many would actually do so.

In another blow to the Lib Dems, the poll said the SNP is now 15 points ahead in Mr Kennedy’s seat of Ross, Skye and Lochaber, up from five points in February.

The SNP is also leading by 11 points in Jo Swinson’s East Dunbartonshire constituency and by 13 points in North East Fife, where Sir Menzies Campbell, another former Lib Dem leader, is stepping down after 28 years.

Lord Ashcroft also found that the Nationalists had extended their lead from three to 21 points in Glasgow South West, where the incumbent is Labour's Ian Davidson.

Each constituency poll featured 1,000 voters with surveys completed between April 11 and yesterday. They invited respondents to consider the specific candidates standing in their areas but did not name them.

A Scottish Labour spokesman said: “There is no gloss that can be put on these polls. They are bad for Scottish Labour and if they are repeated on election day two things will happen – the SNP will have more MPs and David Cameron will walk back into Downing Street again.”

Angus Robertson, the SNP’s general election coordinator, welcomed the results but insisted his party was not taking victory for granted.

He said: “With more anti-Tory MPs than Tory MPs at the election, we can lock David Cameron out of Downing Street. Electing a strong team of SNP MPs ensures that Scotland has real power at Westminster to make Scotland’s voice heard – and help deliver progressive politics across the UK.”

A Scottish Tory spokesman said: “These polls show once again that the Labour and Lib Dem vote is plummeting right across Scotland. The question for voters now is why join a sinking ship?

A Scottish Liberal Democrat spokesman said: "These polls don't mention the name of the incumbent candidate and all the research shows that when they do support will jump through the roof.”