Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Zarif, thanks. Where is this on the Saxobank site? I can't find it.

Maggot did u download their software? If u have than when u log in you will see a grey tab which says analysis-click on that and it will give u all the analysis.

alernately click on the trading tab and scroll down to nalysis nad news tab and take your pick of forex strategy,equities etc.

i hope this helps.

rgds
zarif.

I just managed a short ( i know against the trend) but it was up about 156 points on GBP/USD on the spot and the spread was only 9 .The spot closes at 20.00hrs with igindex so gave it a shot and it paid off.

Thought I'd downloaded software the other day then thought I hadn't. Will check later.

good idea folks......still watching the currencies before trading them but Hils is right trends are excellent...now all we need is an ex-divi thread maggot :-)
T

Treble :-)

Just going to try to make sense of the Saxobank software, Zarif. It all confuses me.

Tw.
Since Maggot introduced me to them all i can say is that they are much safer than the dow and the trends are really good and poinatge wise brilliant aswell.not much sweat and stress so far.As maggot explained to me they seem to have peak and ebb times and good floors and ceilings.atm dollar getting a pasting on all fronts.

rgds
zarif

wising u all the best for the festive season and new year.

Zarif. The bit I've downloaded says, when it goes to download installation wizard, that there's a newer version on the server (whatever that is). So I've gone back to Saxobank - is it the 20-day Trading Demo Application you've downloaded? If so I'll try again.

xarif...you too old bean :-)

Zarif. Have downloaded software (again - it must have been updated since I first did it). Have the option of filling in an application form - but this has an Analysis tab at the top. But there's no GBP news there.

Yes there is - it just needs scrolling down. Thanks!

For a demo account (without apparent time limit), I can recommend http://www.cms-forex.com/ Under Sign Up select Visual Trading Demo.

Their charts are excellent, and positions and stops etc are actually shown on the chart, and you can change orders just by 'grabbing' the order and moving it with the cursor. Brilliant, imo!

The only downside is that their demo server tends to go offline intermittently, as well as at scheduled times.

EUR/USD declines further to 1.2460 - 1.2440, but uptrend aims at 1.3000 thereafter; GBP/USD finds support at 1.7700 -- targets 1.8000 next



MARKET RECAP:



- The U.S. dollar rose against the euro in Asia as New Year's Eve celebrations passed with the absence of a terrorist attack in the U.S. Gains may prove short-lived on lower U.S. interest rates relative to Europe. The dollar was at $1.2540 against the euro at 9:40 a.m. in Singapore from $1.2593 late Wednesday in New York, having been as strong as $1.2533, according to EBS prices. The dollar may trade between $1.2520 and $1.2620 today, Mizuho's Tsunoda said. Against the yen, it traded at 107.38 from 107.30 on Dec. 31. Markets were closed yesterday.




- Asian stocks rose, led by exporters such as News Corp. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. after a larger-than-expected fall in initial jobless claims in the U.S. signaled global growth may accelerate this year. The Morgan Stanley Capital International's Asia Pacific ex Japan Index, which tracks more than 540 companies in the region, rose 0.4 percent to 222.92 at 11:26 a.m. in Seoul. All benchmarks in markets open in Asia rose, bar the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index. Markets in Japan, the Philippines, Thailand and New Zealand are closed for holidays. The Australian stock exchange is scheduled to close two hours early.


- U.S. Treasuries fell in Asian trading after jobless claims last week dropped to the lowest in almost three years, signaling a strengthening labor market that may fuel growth in the world's largest economy. The 3 3/8 percent note due in December 2008 was bid at 100 15/32 at 10:15 a.m. in Singapore, according to Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The note dropped of 7/32, or $2.19 per $1,000 face amount, as its yield rose 5 basis points to 3.27 percent. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.



Year-end FX Summary :


* The dollar lost against major currencies around the globe. The Australian and Canadian dollars reached six-year and 10-year peaks respectively. The Swiss franc topped a seven-year high. The yen was flat against the dollar, which nonetheless remains at a three-year low against the Japanese currency. The dollar has lost 17% against the euro on the year, with 5% of the losses coming in December alone. The pound added 4% against the greenback during December.


* Positive U.S. economic data continues to be shrugged off by the financial markets. Positive data were released from the U.S. failed to prop up the beleaguered greenback. Notably, the initial U.S. jobless claims dropped to almost a three-year low. Owning to the colossal budget and trade deficit, dollar valuation continues to decline. Standing as testament to this is the free-fall of the U.S. currency despite a horde of encouraging U.S. data in December.


* Currency valuation is increasingly on the minds of central banks across the globe. G7 finance ministers will discuss currency valuation at their February meeting and it remains to be seen whether the ECB will take steps to curb the dollar?s decline. Meanwhile, Tokyo confirmed that it will continue to intervene aggressively to rein in the yen?s upward surge.

* Conclusion: Technical considerations and market sentiment still weigh heavily on the U.S. currency, and we do not see any lasting relief until the U.S. administration cries "Uncle" and tells the G7 finance ministers that enough is enough. That will be in February, but by that time, the common currency may have reached 1.3500.





FX Snapshots: Europe



EUR/USD - the currency rally did top at 1.2647 on Wednesday, and what followed was a wild and volatile sell-off caused by very thin volumes. The currency has since then stabilized below 1.2600, but it does look like we will probably see further declines to 1.2460 - 1.2440 later in the trading day; we may even see those levels on Monday -- hard to say given the very thin trading conditions. There is a small chance of further declines to 1.2350. But the uptrend should resume its course thereafter -- the major objective for this uptrend is at least 1.2850; we now start factoring in 1.3000 as probable target.

In the general wave scheme of the rally which started on September 3 at 1.0765, we see this corrective decline as the fourth wave of a 3rd wave, and should therefore be limited in scope. The 3rd wave characterization is probably correct -- as mentioned in my book (Elliott Wave Analysis Applied to the Foreign Exchange Market), this is the wave phase when even superb fundamentals do not make a dent on the bearish sentiment vs the U.S. dollar. The 3rd wave may end at 1.2850 at least -- we now look at 1.3000 as a more ideal target. If you are familiar with the Elliott wave concept, then you will understand when I say that the sequence from the 1.0765 low may end at 1.3300 minimum -- possibly even 1.3500. These are the basic premises that will guide us in the next few months -- our target for a top being the February meeting of G7 finance ministers which will tackle the vexing problem of the falling U.S. dollar.



GBP/USD has gone to as high as 1.7941. But the currency did swing down and has been to as low as 1.7780. Expect further declines . . . . . . There may even be a chance that the current sell-off will go to as low as 1.7600. . . . . . USD/JPY has been very volatile -- it has been to 107.71 and is now back at 106.90 area. It hovers at just above the base but should break down the support very soon. The currency pair may yet fall further to 106.75 area . . . . . . . . . . USD/CHF did see a recovery to 1.2455, and may yet rise further towards 1.2520 - 1.2540. There is a small chance of further recovery . . . . . But this should not impact that much on the downtrend, which should resume thereafter . . . . .



USD/CAD fell to as low to as 1.2842, and we did see a small uptick to 1.2994; the recovery may extend further . . . . even make a mental allowance for 1.3200, just in case . . . . But expect further follow-through to the downside thereafter . . . . . . AUD/USD met resistance at .7537 and may correct further. Make mental allowance for .7460. But the uptrend may eventually lead towards the .7570 objective. . . . . . NZD/USD has been to as high as .6566 but may still correct back further . . . But the uptrend should reassert thereafter . . . . . .



=====================================



FX Snapshots: New York



EUR/USD has been to as high as 1.2647, higher than our 1.2600 target -- low volumes are exaggerating the currencies appreciation. If the currency stops here (and we think there is a chance that it will later today due to overbought conditions), expect a pullback to 1.2550 area at least. However, if the currency pair goes lower than 1.2540, then we may see a corrective decline to 1.2450 to shape up. But the uptrend should resume its course thereafter -- the major objective for this uptrend is 1.2850.



GBP/USD finally broke through, and the currency has gone to as high as 1.7941. But watch a minor downside swing level at 1.7880 (the level adjusts higher as the currency rises) -- break of which may cause a corrective decline to 1.7830 at least. . . . . . . . . USD/JPY still being supported at 106.80 area and hovers at just above the base and has been higher -- but it should break down the support very soon. The currency pair may yet fall further to 106.75 area, but this is inconsequential -- a bigger risk lies to the upside . . . . . . . . . . USD/CHF fell to as low as 1.2314. The downtrend may stop for a while and we should see a recovery to 1.2400 at least. Unless of course a small recovery breaks above 1.2420 -- in which case the currency pulls back to 1.2450 - 1.2470. But this should not impact that much on the downtrend . . . . . . . . . . . .



USD/CAD sideways consolidation did resolve to the downside -- the currency fell to as low to as 1.2842. Allow for a small uptick to 1.2940, but expect also further follow-through to the downside . . . . . . . . . AUD/USD - did extend further to .7520 -- it may meet firmer resistance here. We still expect some correction to appear there, with a pullback to .7460 thereafter a reasonable assumption. . . . . . . . NZD/USD has been to as high as .6566 and is meeting stiffer resistance. Expect a corrective decline to .6530 area thereafter. But the uptrend should reassert thereafter, with .6770 as the new objective further out. . . . . . . . . .






News, data, references and commentaries compiled from Bloomberg, Reuters, CBSMarketWatch, Briefing.com, and Economy.com


Euro/US Dollar
(1.2565) - 06:39 GMT, Jan 02, 2004


EUR/USD - the currency rally did top at 1.2647 on Wednesday, and what followed was a wild and volatile sell-off caused by very thin volumes. The currency has since then stabilized below 1.2600, but it does look like we will probably see further declines to 1.2460 - 1.2440 later in the trading day; we may even see those levels on Monday -- hard to say given the very thin trading conditions. There is a small chance of further declines to 1.2350. But the uptrend should resume its course thereafter -- the major objective for this uptrend is at least 1.2850; we now start factoring in 1.3000 as probable target.





Recommendations:
Stand aside.



British Pound/US Dollar
(1.7815) - 06:40 GMT, Jan 02, 2004




GBP/USD has gone to as high as 1.7941. But the currency did swing down and has been to as low as 1.7780. Expect further declines towards the 1.7730 - 1.7720 area. There may be a chance that the current sell-off will go to as low as 1.7600. Nonetheless, the uptrend is well entrenched, and further upmove to at least 1.8000 follows thereafter.



Recommendations:
Stand aside.



US Dollar/Japanese Yen
(106.89) - 06:38 GMT, Jan 02, 2004



USD/JPY has been very volatile -- it has been to 107.71 and is now back at 106.90 area. It hovers at just above the base but should break down the support very soon. The currency pair may yet fall further to 106.75 area, but this is inconsequential -- a bigger risk lies to the upside as the currency may then initiate a new upmove anytime. When that happens, the currency pair may reach 108.80 - 109.00 in a few days thereafter.


Recommendations:
Bought USD at 106.99. Keep stop-loss at 106.55. Keep profit target at 109.00.




US Dollar/Swiss Franc
(1.2418) - 06:41 GMT, Jan 02, 2004

USD/CHF did see a recovery to 1.2455, and may yet rise further towards 1.2520 - 1.2540. There is a small chance of further recovery to 1.2600. But this should not impact that much on the downtrend, which should resume thereafter, with 1.2200 as next objective, then perhaps to 1.2000 further out.

Recommendations:
Stand aside.



US Dollar/Canadian Dollar
(1.2960) - 06:40 GMT, Jan 02, 2004


USD/CAD fell to as low to as 1.2842, and we did see a small uptick to 1.2994; the recovery may extend to 1.3080. make a mental allowance for 1.3200, just in case . . . . But expect further follow-through to the downside thereafter, perhaps to 1.2700 next time around. Further out, the 1.2400 target beckons.

Recommendations:
Stand aside.



Australian Dollar/US Dollar
(0.7525) - 06:43 GMT, Jan 02, 2004

AUD/USD met resistance at .7537 and may correct further towards the .7480 area. Make mental allowance for .7460. But the uptrend may eventually lead towards the .7570 objective. The next upmove much further out targets .7800.


Recommendations:
Stand aside.



NZ Dollar/US Dollar
(0.6546) - 06:45 GMT, Jan 02, 2004

NZD/USD has been to as high as .6566 but may still correct back to .6520. But the uptrend should reassert thereafter, with .6770 as the new objective further out.

Recommendations:
Stand aside.



Euro/Japanese Yen
(134.30) - 06:44 GMT, Jan 02, 2004

EUR/JPY cross has gone to as high as 135.51. But we did see a corrective decline to 134.40 and may extend further to 134.00. But the uptrend is not over yet, and the upcycle should resume thereafter and go on towards the 136.00 objective, then focus at 138.00 further out.

Note: our database registered a bad qoute in the EUR/JPY cross on Wednesday-- which triggered our stoploss orders (see below). But in reality the cross has not gone to as low 131.92, so our long position on the cross should not be closed out. But the process is fully automated, and now requires the technical support team to adjust the data base to the right low value. So consider our long positions from 130.74 to 133.54 (4 observations) as still extant. The values will be adjusted later in the day.


Recommendations:
Long EUR position from 130.74 to 133.54 (4 observations) was closed at 131.92 stop-loss.
Stand aside.



Euro/Swiss Franc
(1.5600) - 06:55 GMT, Jan 02, 2004

EUR/CHF - the cross did fall to 1.5565 again -- and may again retest the 1.5640 area. But longer-term implications remains the same -- the cross should move lower thereafter, with 1.5460 as the next focus. The next target much further out is the area of 1.5350.

Recommendations:
Stand aside.



Euro/British Pound
(0.7045) - 06:57 GMT, Jan 02, 2004



EUR/GBP - there may be a corrective pause to .7010 -- no change in the view. The main rally reasserts thereafter, the immediate target of which is .7100. A small correction follows, then the uptrend resumes with .7200 as primary objective still.


Recommendations:
Stand aside.



British Pound/Japanese Yen
(190.69) - 06:59 GMT, Jan 02, 2004




GBP/JPY - a small pullback to 191.20 over-extended to 190.40 -- allow for 189.60 -- but the uptrend resumes thereafter. The next upwave should then go to 193.00. The next objective thereafter is 195.00.






Recommendations:
Bought GBP at 187.83 and 188.67. Move stop-loss from 189.20 to 189.00. Keep profit target at 195.00.




British Pound/Swiss Franc
(2.2138) - 07:00 GMT, Jan 02, 2004

GBP/CHF we watch the cross for another day as it attempts to create a support band and may rally back to 2.2440 . . . . we may eventually reinstate the original bearish view of further declines to 2.1500.





Recommendations:
Stand aside.

Would've thought that the action today will hinge around the EUR/USD with a retest of 1.265 looking likely. The Japs are still on holiday, don't forget, and there are opposing schools of thought as to if or when the BoJ would intervene.

Do you like the start I've made on the header?

Nice one agree its time for a good fx thread

A few links;
for data & research;
http://www.fxstreet.com
for futures;
http://www.interactivebrokers.com
a few more fx brokers
http://www.oanda.com
http://www.ozforex.com
http://www.cmcplc.com

for charts;

http://www.fxtrek.com

Nice one mbb. I use FX Street myself and was going to put them into the header anyway. I'll include those other brokers.

EUR/USD heading up again helped by the PMI figures.

Nice Fred Hil

Hils,

V. useful thread -- many thanks.

Now tell me, is there geographic significance to interest rates -- the Southern hemisphere rates range from 5% - 16.5% and the Northern hemisphere from an effective 0% - 3.75%.

well opened some forex trades this evening out of boredom more than anything!!

short pound/dollar at 1.7930 and long euro/pound 0.7025...only a couple of pounds a point and just a tester really.
T

Great thread, Hil.

Any chance of dates/times along the bottom of the charts, i.e. are the dailies over a year? My guess is they are.

Great thread. Can someone please add some useful product info for forex newbies (like me) such as the most reputable brokers, margin rates, cross rates, financing etc etc, plus software providers for eod charting.

Derek,

I'm not really sure where some of those southern hemisphere countries are within their economic cycle to be able to answer that question, I'm afraid. Regarding the Yanks and the Japs, zero rate finance just increases the debt mountain rather than promoting healthy economic growth, imo. What goes around comes around.

Al,

Headers altered to show the timescale. I've also put some more links in.

Velocity,

I believe that brokers are pretty much a personal thing and what suits one person doesn't necessarily suit all. If you're just starting out, then small bets with the spread firms are probably your best option although their spreads are wide and they do skew the prices. For day trading you'll need one of the brokers above with a much tighter spread. For eod charting, it's all in Sharescope.

DAILY MARKET COMMENTARY
2 January 2004
Friday



North American Comment at 1500 GMT

_____________________________________________________________________
GCI Foreign Exchange Research: http://www.gcitrading.com/fxnews/
FX Research Desk: fxnews@gcitrading.com
_____________________________________________________________________



Fundamental Outlook at 1500 GMT (EDT + 0500)



The euro appreciated vis-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2630 level and was supported around the $1.2525 level during Australasian dealing. The pair came within fifteen pips of testing its lifetime high, established on Wednesday. Stops were triggered above the $1.2600 figure during the move higher. Options traders cite the $1.2700 figure as an option barrier. Many Fed speakers are scheduled to speak this weekend in San Diego with Chairman Greenspan talking tomorrow followed by Governor Bernanke. Fed official Reinhart will speak on Saturday also followed by Vice Chairman Ferguson on Sunday and then Bernanke will speak again. Data released in the U.S. today saw the December ISM manufacturing index at 66.2, better-than-expected and the sixth consecutive monthly increase. Data released in the eurozone today saw the December manufacturing PMI at 52.4 compared with 52.2 in November. Germany enjoyed a gain in its PMI index last month while Frances and Italys indices slipped back. Euro bids are cited around the $1.2525 level with stops below the $1.2500 figure. Additional bids are cited around the $1.2470 level.







The yen appreciated vis-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback fell to the 106.65 level during European dealing, absorbing bids around the 106.90 level in the process. Japanese banks were said to be sitting with intervention-related bids around the daily low despite the ongoing New Years holiday in Japan. The 106.50 level is cited as an options barrier and bids above that level prevented the pair from getting lower. Traders are talking about a North Korean decision to allow U.S. nuclear experts to tour that countrys top nuclear facility on 6 January. Dollar offers are cited around the 107.20/ 50 levels. The euro tested bids around the 134.10 level during European dealing before moving back to the 134.85 level. Euro bids are cited around the 134.00 figure with more interest at the 133.85 level, below which stops are seen. Euro offers are seen around the 135.00 figure with stops above the 135.30 level.





The British pound appreciated vis-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.7910 level after finding some good demand around the $1.7820 level during a pullback in European dealing. Many U.K. data were released today. Net mortgage lending growth decelerated in November but was still strong while net consumer credit growth accelerated. Net mortgage lending fell to its lowest level since August and the number of mortgage approvals receded to 115,000 from 121,000 in September and 118,000 in October. The November figure, however, was the third strongest in 2003 and this suggests the housing market will remain fairly strong in early 2004. Also, U.K. manufacturing PMI escalated to its highest level in four years in December. Q3 mortgage equity withdrawals rose 19.5% y/y to a record 13.4 billion and the November M4 money supply was up +0.8% m/m. The euro came off vis-vis the British pound today as the single currency tested bids around the 0.7035 level. Euro bids are cited around the 0.7000 figure while euro offers are cited around the 0.7060/ 80 level.



CHF

The Swiss franc gained ground vis-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.2345 level before clawing back some gains during North American dealing. The strong manufacturing PMI data contributed to the dollars move higher. The euro orbited the CHF 1.5600 figure in very tight trading.





Technical Outlook at 1330 GMT (EDT + 0500)

(Bid Price) (Todays Intraday Range)

EUR/ USD 1.2585 1.2625, 1.2559
USD/ JPY 106.89 107.56, 106.88
GBP/ USD 1.7846 1.7911, 1.7824
USD/ CHF 1.2402 1.2467, 1.2350
AUD/ USD 0.7547 0.7561, 0.7523
USD/CAD 1.2916 1.2962, 1.2905
NZD/ USD 0.6562 0.6577, 0.6556
EUR/ JPY 134.59 135.74, 134.23
EUR/ GBP 0.7050 0.7076, 0.7025
EUR/ CHF 1.5610 1.5682, 1.5527
GBP/ JPY 190.86 192.29, 190.61
CHF/ JPY 86.20 86.96, 86.05





Support Resistance Support Resistance

EUR/ USD USD/ JPY

L1. 1.2400 1.2660 106.75 110.60
L2. 1.2325 1.2730 106.00 111.20
L3. 1.2225 1.2790 105.00 112.00



GBP/ USD USD/ CHF

L1. 1.7400 1.7775 1.2350 1.3200
L2. 1.7330 1.7825 1.2270 1.3300
L3. 1.7250 1.7900 1.2200 1.3400



AUD/ USD USD/ CAD

L1. 0.7000 0.7580 1.2900 1.3500
L2. 0.6960 0.7650 1.2830 1.3575
L3. 0.6910 0.7725 1.2770 1.3660



NZD/ USD EUR/ JPY

L1. 0.6350 0.6580 130.40 135.75
L2. 0.6300 0.6620 129.90 136.50
L3. 0.6250 0.6670 129.25 137.30



EUR/ GBP EUR/ CHF

L1. 0.6800 0.7170 1.5450 1.5750
L2. 0.6750 0.7250 1.5410 1.5800
L3. 0.6700 0.7310 1.5370 1.5860



GBP/ JPY CHF/ JPY

L1. 185.50 192.30 78.90 87.00
L2. 185.00 193.00 78.30 87.60
L3. 184.00 194.00 77.25 88.25