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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

biffa18 - 04 Feb 2006 20:52 - 603 of 1009

iv bailed out as this just taking to long and money can be used elsewhere also unless figs are really bril i can see 1.90 tops anyway short term maybe wrong but anyone disagree with 1.90 or think alot higher,also company has announced results will be good so think that is in sh price already.......comments anyone !!

boxerdog - 05 Feb 2006 10:38 - 604 of 1009

Thanks Fred,homework already done ,in retrospect should never have sold but can never call it right all of the time.I will be rejoining you tomorrow and would be delighted to achieve 1.80+ short term.ps.any thourghts on KMR,holding large chunk at present.

optomistic - 05 Feb 2006 11:23 - 605 of 1009

biffa, I do agree with your comment about the good results being in the share price already. Overall RTD has the likelihood of having great potential, but I think it could be longer to realise than many of us had thought. Right now the sp looks to be in a slight downtrend which needs to change before further progress can be made.
boxerdog, hope you are right in your decision to re-enter tomorrow. Any further purchase be me will have to be preempted by a change in the short term trend.
opto

boxerdog - 05 Feb 2006 12:41 - 606 of 1009

optomistic,if my memory serves me correctly, around this time of year there occurs a definite surge in the sp.of RTD.Last year it traded as high as 37p. or 1.85.only to fall back upon presentation of results.If this years preformance has infact surpassed last years,might a figure off 1.80 be reasonably expected.Might there be news of a maiden dividend ? who know .

optomistic - 05 Feb 2006 12:59 - 607 of 1009

boxer, in the future I also think that 180p is on the cards, I just have my doubts as to the near term likelyhood of that.
Dividend? well we all must have our inner views on that. Certainly it would be a welcome move but personally I don't think it will arrive with these results. I would expect them to announce sometime (in the future) that we hope to announce that we will pay a dividend at '...........' Seems to be the way it is done and delays the payment of cash for that little bit longer.
opto

Fred1new - 05 Feb 2006 13:17 - 608 of 1009

boxer, had a look at KMR. The graph was impressive. NMS about 2000, only one period with positive turnover 1995-1999, but "promises" huge jump in EPS for 2005, but has a PE of 500.

Don't know much about it, if I had shares with this superficial look I would probably hold with tight stop loss, but probably wouldn't buy at the moment. (I am getting a little more conservative in my old age.)

The other problem for me is that my father was a miner (went under-ground at age of 11). His opinion was that a mine was a hole in the ground and capable of being filled with money.

I am biased.

Good luck.

m12rtn - 05 Feb 2006 16:49 - 609 of 1009

In the last 2-3 years this has always tripled from its lowest point, just look back.

1.05 being the lowest point (late 2004), this will hit 3 sometime this year.

Just make sure you leave before it goes down the usual 40-45% after it hits it!!!!!


Douggie - 06 Feb 2006 15:31 - 610 of 1009

:-[[ too much RED in Feb. we sposed to be rocketing UP

Fred1new - 06 Feb 2006 16:13 - 611 of 1009

Douggie, please go on holiday again. I come with you if it helps the SP.

pachandl - 06 Feb 2006 16:34 - 612 of 1009

What a rollercoaster day! Douggie, a holiday seems called for - if you don't go on one then I suppose I will just have to volunteer.

Douggie - 06 Feb 2006 17:25 - 613 of 1009

Sorry no more hols for me till we pass 2 ............ ;-/

Fundamentalist - 06 Feb 2006 20:22 - 614 of 1009

I see all the long term holders are urging Douggie to have his annual holiday ahead of results again :-)

Decided to have another look today, prompted by a sell signal on the Point and Figure chart. the signal surprised me as after the trading statement i assumed the price would have remained higher.

From a P&F perspective, the chart shows a short term sell signal though the downside looks limited to support at the 130p level. Of more interest to me would be the potential buy signal that would appear if the share was to break up through 152p (a triple top breakout). The line chart tends to confirm this with short term not looking great but with the medium term still in an uptrend.

With results expected within the next 4 weeks, the annual pre results rise has not materialised as yet and though it may still do so i think people are likely to be more conservative due to the post results falls of the previous 2 years (both due to good results not being as good as most expected after the positive trading updates)

As far as the results are concerned I think excellent performance from the fuel card side of the business is a given and already priced in. More focus will fall upon the fraud side of the business as to whether they are finally turning the CNP contracts into genuine revenue and profit growth and whether this growth is enough to outweigh the continued decline of the CP business.

So where to now? Personally wouldnt be surprised to see the SP to still be between 140p and 150p until the results are released with any potential rise being post results this year (and ultimately more sustainable).

If it falls closer to the 130p support level i will dip my toe back in and will be happy to add on a break of 152p. Alternatively if it remains in a sideways range I will wait until the results to evaluate the performance of the fraud side of the business.


All imho, dyor, nag etc etc, good luck to all who hold


P&F chart

optomistic - 06 Feb 2006 21:57 - 615 of 1009

Nice article Fundy!

Fred1new - 07 Feb 2006 00:20 - 616 of 1009

Fundy stimulated to look at the charts and indicators for RTD. If I wasn't an optimist I would be suicidal. Couldn't find a positive short term indicator. Nevertheless I think it has positive support and 138p and think looking at to-days dealings that the SP to-morrow will be up.

Annual report on the 28/2/2006 I think will be positive (read hope).

I am holding for those.

55011 - 07 Feb 2006 10:28 - 617 of 1009

Retail Decisions PLC
07 February 2006



Retail Decisions plc


Preliminary Results Notification


For the attention of Company Announcements, London Stock Exchange



On Friday 3 March 2006 Retail Decisions plc, the payment card issuer and a world
leader in card fraud prevention and payment processing, will be announcing its
Preliminary results for the year ended 31 December 2005.



An analyst briefing will be held on 3 March 2006.


Douggie - 08 Feb 2006 10:23 - 618 of 1009

and so back down we go :-[

optomistic - 08 Feb 2006 10:28 - 619 of 1009

Will make a nice buy in the mid 120's

Fred1new - 08 Feb 2006 10:51 - 620 of 1009

Even better at 100p

Bloody optimist.

8-)

optomistic - 08 Feb 2006 10:57 - 621 of 1009

No, will settle for 120's Fred :-)

Fred1new - 08 Feb 2006 10:59 - 622 of 1009

The total volume about 45,000. normal volume about 450,000 shares. I don't think many are bailing out.

But it is red day all over my screen.
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