Forex rebates on every trade - win or lose!

Seymour,

The easiest thing in the world is to "fit" the news to the chart retrospectively. This movement has been in the chart since the end of last week.

Agreed Hilary, I have this amazing gift of hindsight.....

[08:32 UK ECON: Aug Mortgage Approvals 71,278 - BBA]

[08:31 UK ECON: Q2 C/A Deficit GBP 6.986bn, Lower-Than-Expected]


[08:30 UK ECON: Q2 GDP Revised Down to +0.7% q/q. Unexpected] Annualized UK Q2 GDP has been left unrevised, +2.6% y/y.

I guess the US figs weren't too hot!

Scalped +17 off that, no long term position yet though.

Nice one SC.

I could have got out of my long flat if I'd left it alone.

Giving it back as we speak :-S

Another 50 down from here (1.8893) should hit some support imo.

Cable's a bit on the choppy side so watching and waiting instead.

US home figs out later too.

Morning All

Cable very weak this morning in reponse to this article in the FT

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/dd487e34-4e56-11db-bcbc-0000779e2340.html

Just shorted at 31 so hoping the trend will be my friend today

I was just about to make a comment on the damage that's been wreaked over the last 15 years because of Brussels when I saw this:

ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell says EU growth disappointing since euro launch
AFX


BERLIN (AFX) - European Central Bank board member Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell said EU economic growth has been disappointing in the period since the launch of the euro.

'A fair assessment of the last seven and a half years of economic developments in Europe cannot avoid mention of the fact that, despite the success of EMU, output growth has been disappointing and below that of Europe's main competitors,' she said in a speech.

Average growth in the EU's 25 member states has been about 2.3 pct since 1995, compared with about 2.7 pct in non-EU industrial countries and 3.3 pct in the US, she said.

This growth gap is one of the main arguments for structural reforms to make the EU economy more flexible, innovative and competitive, she said.

Increased innovation can play a particularly important role in boosting growth, she said.

A 1 percentage point increase in research and development as a share of GDP is estimated to increase the long-run growth rate of productivity by 0.6 percentage points, she said.

A key factor in fostering economic growth through innovation is the availability of financing opportunities, she said.

At the recent informal Ecofin meeting in Helsinki, EU finance ministers stressed the importance of creating an environment conducive to private capital investment in innovation and invited the ECB to assess the institutional features that hinder the efficient functioning of the financial system, she noted.

Tumpel-Gugerell said financial integration will also be positive for growth.

'Progress in EU financial integration since the introduction of the euro...has generally improved financing conditions for European firms, with substantial benefits expected for Europes growth performance,' she said.

But she added: 'Based on the evidence available, financing opportunities for investment in innovation appear to be more constrained at the level of small and medium-sized enterprises and individual entrepreneurs.'

And EU citizens do not yet appear to appreciate the benefits of financial integration and of monetary union, she said.

'The rejection of the European constitution by the people of the Netherlands and France...sent quite a strong signal that European citizens do not fully perceive and reap all the potential benefits of EMU or of the financial integration process it has triggered,' she said.

While financial integration in Europe has increased, the EU banking market remains fragmented, which reduces its efficiency, she said.

In contrast, banking deregulation in the US has had positive effects on growth and productivity, she said.

steve.whitehouse@afxnews.com

Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell - you couldn't make it up :)

Nice one Bak :) I especially liked this bit:
"ONS officials explained they had been trying to eliminate a smaller problem related to VAT fraud from the national accounts."
Would that be the 80 billion or so story that government officials have gagged the media from exploiting any further?

Cable's been nestling on my last but one thingie in the 1.8780s
I have the 1.8720s as my current bottom line rising support from the end of June.
If that goes I'll have to get my crayons out again :)

Do you reckon that Gertie wears pigtails and spends her weekends yodelling, Choccie?

Well done this morning, Bak. One word of minor caution though which picks up on Choccie's point last week about the new black. It's been all too convenient to pin the Blanchflower and ONS stories onto a falling market. There was, however, a piece of news this morning which seems to have been allowed to pass below the radar in that the Nationwide House Price mumbojumbogobbledegook was inflationary. It's my guess that, once the Pound starts to show some signs of life again over the next few days and embarks upon the next up-leg, this will be one of the stories which sticks. It'll be interesting to see how that story runs in tomorrow's daily papers.

Thanks Hils and Chocs :-)

I'm out for +30 as I used my MA line as a trailing stop loss. It went down further but there's always another day.

Well, it's gone further south so wish i'd stuck with my friendly trend.

One thing I've definately learned over the last few months is that forex is such a fickle market. The sentiment can change from hour to hour never mind day to day depending on the what type of news the market thinks as the "new black!". (Choccie...Your phrase is so apt).

It certainly means that to be a better forex trader I'd have to be constantly on my toes.

Highly likely Hils ;)

Don't beat yourself up about it Bak.
It doesn't help the psyche to dwell on how much more you could've had out of a trade. Remember - the pips never go away :)

Bak,

Cable isn't, imo, a fickle market. The moves are actually very small and the trends are very easily and well defined. It's just that the very low margin requirements encourage overtrading with too tight stop losses and make the moves look much bigger than they really are. It's a system designed to panic the punters out of their hard earned as quickly as possible.

For instance, with cable at 1.88, a trade at 1 per pip is the equivalent of a position 18,800 in size. If that were a stock, you'd likely need a minimum deposit of 5% (ie 940) and possibly 20% or 3,760. Yet to trade cable, you need typically 200 although it can be traded for as little 60.

That 200 deposit equates to just 1.06% of the position size. If it were a stock, that 1% would possibly be less than the bid/offer spread, so you'd effectively have lost your 200 in dealing costs before the position had even moved. Yet with cable, you'd look upon a 200 pip move as a monster move and would be either hurrying to bank your profits or stringing yourself up from the nearest lampost if you were the wrong side of it.