up another 10% with 3m traded already


gordon geko - 15 Oct'04 - 16:27 - 37 of 41 edit



where too next week ?


Andy - 15 Oct'04 - 17:58 - 38 of 41


gorndon,

well IF the weekend newspapers mention FOGL, we may continue with the rise for a while, but not sure how anyone can predict with any degree of accuracy where the price will end up.

I still feel it has more to go, as there is massive potential here, so may well top up on Monday.


wilbs - 15 Oct'04 - 19:11 - 39 of 41


I agree, there is a masive potential here but not for a few years. DYOR and you will see why. Im gonna buy but will wait till it drops in price.

wilbs


Andy - 15 Oct'04 - 19:44 - 40 of 41


wilbs,

I have DMOR, I have read the prspectus several times.

Potential is what is being traded here, and IF a resource is confirmed, FOGL will race away.

I'm buying now in order to be in at the start, rather than wait for the price to rise against me later, if of course they are sucessful.

Asian Energy is an example of a resource being defined, and look what hapenned there!

I am happy to hold at this level, and as for the price falling, maybe once the initial interest dies diown, unless they release some news of course!

we will see.



wilbs - 17 Oct'04 - 08:34 - 41 of 41


I totaly agree with you andy.

I have bought into many shares too early at a high price only to watch them fall and kick myself as I could of bought them much cheaper.
I will have to keep a close eye on things.

There is a good article on www.oilbarrel.com about FOGL.
Are you also thinking about buying into Hardman, Falkland Island Holdings?

Regards,

wilbs

the oilbarrel article
Falkland Oil & Gas Says Fundraising Oversubcribed
AFX News Limited Wednesday, October 13, 2004


Falkland Oil and Gas Ltd said its offer to raise 2 mln stg via the issue of 5 mln shares at 40 pence each has been oversubscribed. The group said it received applications for 17.45 mln shares, representing 6.98 mln stg. "As a result....applications will not all be settled in full," it said. The minimum subscription under the offer was for 2,500 shares, or 1,000 stg, and all valid applications will receive at least this amount, it added. "Applicants will also receive 12.415 pct of the amount they have applied for in excess of 2,500 shares." In a separate statement, Falkland Islands Holdings PLC said its shareholding will represent 18.1 pct of Falkland Oil and Gas's enlarged share capital.

London-based Falkland Oil & Gas Limited (FOGL) has identified eight leads from existing 2D seismic in its seven licenses off the southern coast of the Falkland Islands, spokesperson Ben Brewerton told BNamericas.

The leads range from 211 million barrels (mb) to 626mb and could contain a total 3.75 billion barrels, Brewerton said. Each of the seven blocks has at least one lead in it.

FOGL identified the leads by re-interpreting 2D seismic work carried out in the 1990s and it plans to redo some of the seismic in December this year, followed by a 3D seismic program in 2005.

The company could then consider farming-in a partner to help fund drilling on specific targets in 2006-2007, Brewerton said.

To fund the 3D program, FOGL announced it has raised 10mn pounds (US$18mn) through a private placement of 25 million shares at 40 pence per share, FOGL said in a statement.

FOGL has announced a public offering of a further 5 million shares at 40p/share, which must be subscribed by October 12.

If the offer is fully subscribed, FOGL will raise an additional 2mn pounds before expenses, meaning that the net proceeds of the placing and offer will be about 11mn pounds. The company would then list on London's junior AIM market with a market value of 32mn pounds.

Dealings in the shares are expected to start October 14. KBC Peel Hunt has been appointed as nominated adviser and broker to FOGL.

FOGL was formed in May 2004 as a joint venture between Falkland Islands Holdings, Global Petroleum and RAB Special Situations.

Shareholdings in FOGL prior to the placing and offer are: Falkland Islands Holdings 28.9%; Global Petroleum 25.7%; and RAB Special Situations 45.4%.

FOGL has a 77.5% interest in seven exploration licenses covering approximately 33,700 sq. km. to the south of the Falkland Islands. Australia's Hardman Resources has the remaining 22.5% interest.

About Business News Americas: Business News Americas is a multilingual news and business information service that covers the most important original stories in 11 different business sectors throughout Latin America everyday. Visit BNamericas to access our real-time news reports, 7-year archive, Fact File company

Falkland Oil and Gas Ltd said it placed 25 mln shares at 40 pence each to raise 10 mln stg before expenses.

The company, which expects its shares to begin trading on the Alternative Investment Market on Oct 14, also announces a public offer of a further 5 mln shares at 40p a share. Assuming the maximum number of shares available are subscribed, it will raise an additional 2 mln stg before expenses.

Falkland Oil, which holds a 77.5 pct interest in seven exploration licences covering about 33,700 sq km to the south and east of the Falkland Islands, will have a market capitalisation of 32 mln stg on admission to AIM and net proceeds from the placing and offer will be about 11 mln stg.

Following the placing, Falkland Islands Holdings PLC's interest in Falkland Oil will be 18.1 pct.

I fancy this report has all the Majors eying the action offshore Falklands and Kenya when BP says global oil reserves growth stalled in 2004. Another sound reason to be in FOGL and GBP at the moment I think!!


BP says global oil reserves growth stalled in 2004
Tue 14 Jun, 2005 15:09
By Tom Bergin, European Oil and Gas Correspondent

LONDON (Reuters) - Growth in the world's oil and gas reserves stalled last year, a report from oil giant BP showed on Tuesday, bucking a trend that has historically seen new discoveries more than match production.

The BP Statistical Review of World Energy, compiled from official government figures, will reinforce concerns about the ability of global oil supplies to match surging consumption, which grew 3.4 percent in 2004.
The world had 1,188.6 billion barrels of oil reserves at the end of 2004, compared to 1,188.3 billion at the end of 2003, BP, the world's second largest oil firm by market capitalisation, said.

The 0.02 percent growth rate was the lowest since 1990 and compares with a 10-year average above 1.5 percent per annum.

Last year's almost imperceptible rise in oil reserves came despite high prices, which normally help by encouraging new exploration and by making previously uneconomic resources commercial.

Gas fared only slightly better with reserves growing 0.18 percent, but this was the lowest growth rate in over 20 years, and well below the 10-year average of more than 2 percent each year.

The figures contrast with BP's view, regularly voiced by Chief Executive John Browne, that the world is not facing a supply crunch.

However, the data echoes the oil majors' own difficulties in finding oil. Last year, the biggest international firms replaced around 70 percent of the oil and gas they pumped with new finds, analysts said.

Even BP, one of the better explorers in the industry, failed to achieve the 100 percent reserve replacement ratio that shows a firm's resource base is not shrinking.
The report also points to another worrying trend for the oil majors. The gap between their anaemic reserve replacement ratio and an effective 100 percent ratio globally supports investors' fears that the biggest oil companies will lose market share.

Analysts have predicted firms like BP and U.S. rival Exxon Mobil will become increasingly constrained in finding new exploration opportunities in the future because the biggest hydrocarbon reserves look set to be controlled by state-owned oil and gas companies in Russia, Venezuela and the Gulf states.

BP cautioned that pundits have been predicting the imminent depletion of reserves for a century and added that since different governments use different methodologies to calculate proved reserves, it is hard to draw inferences from its review, which is published annually.

mmiller555,

Two good rises in two days, makes me feel some news is imminnent!

My bet would be a JV with a major to finance the 3D seismic, and maybe they will just go aead and drill one or two of the most promising 2D targets, if they can obtain a rig of course.

I may even top up a little tomorrow, will wait and see how we start.

Have you read the joint CEO of RAB Special Situations Fund interview in Money Week last week? He recokons this could give you 30 X return (or something massive - sorry not at my desk).

I subscribed on issue and top sliced at 120p. I bought back in again and more at 99.5p yesterday (having missed 91p by 20 minutes first thing in the morning).

This is definitely one to accuumulate.

sd

Stockdog,

Yes I think you are correct there, FOGL has massive potential, and RAB are no slouches when it comes to spotting potential IMO.

I have seen a FOGL presentation, and they are quietly confident that they will find a substantial resource.

RAB started with 45% - have top-sliced since, but still hold 30% of FOGL's equity - pretty committed and they made 2000% return (!) since 2003 on their fund. With a no holds barred fund, they choose FOGL as a major holding - they're no fools.

sd

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=649625

permite me to put the direct link in, inbsuk

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=649625

inbsuk, stockdog,

Thanks, very interesting.

I like the last couple of lines in that article. It sounds as though "hedge fund wives" are similar creatures to footballers wives.

Progress Report Friday 1 July 2005

Falkland Oil and Gas Limited (FOGL) reports that as of the 1st of July 2005,
1,641 km of the approximately 8,000 km total had been recorded. For five days
of the past week, the vessel has been transiting to Punta Arenas for a port call.

Short/Medium terms weakness looks evident.

I think one is on the cards, an opportunity to add soon.

Anyone care to differ?

ariesr - 120 does seem to be a bit of a resistance level, needing some more substantial good news than 2D-seismic progress - like 2D-seismic results would help. So yes it may now drfit lower back to its recent double bottom support level at 87/8p where I last topped up (except I was away from my desk for 20 minutes on the day and only got in at 99p when I got back!).

So with a 30p range to play with could be a good one to spread bet - are there any firms offering this stock?

Otherwise it has to be a long term hold at almost any current price - see Moneyweek's report on RAB Special Situations a coouple of weeks ago. FOGL currently valued at $240m, could be worth $80bn when oil flows in a couple of years time.

So yes, buy on dips below 100p - as much as you can - and hold for a couple of years IMHO.

sd

Ariesr,

On the price action today, I care to differ!

Andy - the SP seems to have successfully punctured the 120p resistance today, but then I wrote my last post yesterday on a falling price. Is that the difference you mentioned, or did you disagree with some other part of my thinking? Interested to hear. I expect further upward action tomorrow, since we ended on an EOD high today.

sd

Stockdog,

I just think the potential here is so huge that with the current high price of oil, FOGL will stay around this level, or even trade higher on anticipation of any news.

Having seen a recent FOGL presentation, I left feeling very optimistic regarding their chances.

I think there are a lot of holders from the float that will hold for the longer term, and BATR, so the free float here is small IMHO.



The chart suggests the downtrend was broken mid June IMO, but it's interesting that we broke 120 today after three previous failures, now we need to see if it an hold above 120p, then previous resistance may become support.

duplicate.

Anyone know why the drop over the last 3 days?

RAB Capital plc sold 108m shares in FAO it was reported today (albeit Capital Group Companies bought 118m also reported) and I read elsewhere that RAB have been offloading equities in general. I know they were a big holder in FOGL so perhaps their offloading of FOGL shares has caused the mark down.

RAB are very aggressive growth fund with an enormous speculative exposure to oil/mining.

Although their CEO did say in MoneyWeek a few weeks back they were holding for FOGL to go from market cap of 240m to NVP of 80bn! They had already top-sliced.

Maybe they read the stock market is going to go down over the next few months - it has been promised from a number of quarters prior to the surprising lease of life coincidentally commencing July 7th after the minor dip for the London bombings.

Qui sait?

sd

FOGL's partner GBP has gone North 16.3% today, don't know what's caused the jump.

Anyone know the reasons for the very welcome lift in GBP today?

mmiller555,

No news that i could see, but maybe some buying in now they can see the float price is solid?

FOGL has a nice 2.5p rise so far today.