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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

pachandl - 06 Feb 2006 16:34 - 612 of 1009

What a rollercoaster day! Douggie, a holiday seems called for - if you don't go on one then I suppose I will just have to volunteer.

Douggie - 06 Feb 2006 17:25 - 613 of 1009

Sorry no more hols for me till we pass 2 ............ ;-/

Fundamentalist - 06 Feb 2006 20:22 - 614 of 1009

I see all the long term holders are urging Douggie to have his annual holiday ahead of results again :-)

Decided to have another look today, prompted by a sell signal on the Point and Figure chart. the signal surprised me as after the trading statement i assumed the price would have remained higher.

From a P&F perspective, the chart shows a short term sell signal though the downside looks limited to support at the 130p level. Of more interest to me would be the potential buy signal that would appear if the share was to break up through 152p (a triple top breakout). The line chart tends to confirm this with short term not looking great but with the medium term still in an uptrend.

With results expected within the next 4 weeks, the annual pre results rise has not materialised as yet and though it may still do so i think people are likely to be more conservative due to the post results falls of the previous 2 years (both due to good results not being as good as most expected after the positive trading updates)

As far as the results are concerned I think excellent performance from the fuel card side of the business is a given and already priced in. More focus will fall upon the fraud side of the business as to whether they are finally turning the CNP contracts into genuine revenue and profit growth and whether this growth is enough to outweigh the continued decline of the CP business.

So where to now? Personally wouldnt be surprised to see the SP to still be between 140p and 150p until the results are released with any potential rise being post results this year (and ultimately more sustainable).

If it falls closer to the 130p support level i will dip my toe back in and will be happy to add on a break of 152p. Alternatively if it remains in a sideways range I will wait until the results to evaluate the performance of the fraud side of the business.


All imho, dyor, nag etc etc, good luck to all who hold


P&F chart

optomistic - 06 Feb 2006 21:57 - 615 of 1009

Nice article Fundy!

Fred1new - 07 Feb 2006 00:20 - 616 of 1009

Fundy stimulated to look at the charts and indicators for RTD. If I wasn't an optimist I would be suicidal. Couldn't find a positive short term indicator. Nevertheless I think it has positive support and 138p and think looking at to-days dealings that the SP to-morrow will be up.

Annual report on the 28/2/2006 I think will be positive (read hope).

I am holding for those.

55011 - 07 Feb 2006 10:28 - 617 of 1009

Retail Decisions PLC
07 February 2006



Retail Decisions plc


Preliminary Results Notification


For the attention of Company Announcements, London Stock Exchange



On Friday 3 March 2006 Retail Decisions plc, the payment card issuer and a world
leader in card fraud prevention and payment processing, will be announcing its
Preliminary results for the year ended 31 December 2005.



An analyst briefing will be held on 3 March 2006.


Douggie - 08 Feb 2006 10:23 - 618 of 1009

and so back down we go :-[

optomistic - 08 Feb 2006 10:28 - 619 of 1009

Will make a nice buy in the mid 120's

Fred1new - 08 Feb 2006 10:51 - 620 of 1009

Even better at 100p

Bloody optimist.

8-)

optomistic - 08 Feb 2006 10:57 - 621 of 1009

No, will settle for 120's Fred :-)

Fred1new - 08 Feb 2006 10:59 - 622 of 1009

The total volume about 45,000. normal volume about 450,000 shares. I don't think many are bailing out.

But it is red day all over my screen.

optomistic - 08 Feb 2006 11:19 - 623 of 1009

You're right there Fred not much blue showing. As to a lot bailing out, I think it's more a case of a steady sell into the market over time. Don't understand why any large holder would want to drip his stock into the market as prospects seem good, but it does seem to be happening.
However Fundys post above does put some things into perspective.

Fred1new - 08 Feb 2006 16:06 - 624 of 1009

What was I saying about support at 138p. Gone back to bed.

Douggie - 09 Feb 2006 10:17 - 625 of 1009

...Still :-[ ..............!

boxerdog - 09 Feb 2006 14:01 - 626 of 1009

As a very long term holder (on and off) i feel qualified to state that RTD. as a share is frustrating and amazingly unpredictable.They are currently trading at a 25% discount to the SP.of this time a year ago.During this time they have acheived additional sources of revenue by the way of bolt on additions and, issued a statement forecasting as the previous year profits in excess of expectations.Could it possiblbly be that this year profits are even in excess of excess of expectations and that when the MM. cease shaking that tree, come the day of declaration they might take off.Only my theory of course.

boxerdog - 09 Feb 2006 14:02 - 627 of 1009

As a very long term holder (on and off) i feel qualified to state that RTD. as a share is frustrating and amazingly unpredictable.They are currently trading at a 25% discount to the SP.of this time a year ago.During this time they have acheived additional sources of revenue by the way of bolt on additions and, issued a statement forecasting as the previous year profits in excess of expectations.Could it possiblbly be that this year profits are even in excess of excess of expectations and that when the MM. cease shaking that tree, come the day of declaration they might take off.Only my theory of course.

boxerdog - 09 Feb 2006 14:02 - 628 of 1009

As a very long term holder (on and off) i feel qualified to state that RTD. as a share is frustrating and amazingly unpredictable.They are currently trading at a 25% discount to the SP.of this time a year ago.During this time they have acheived additional sources of revenue by the way of bolt on additions and, issued a statement forecasting as the previous year profits in excess of expectations.Could it possiblbly be that this year profits are even in excess of excess of expectations and that when the MM. cease shaking that tree, come the day of declaration they might take off.Only my theory of course.

Fundamentalist - 09 Feb 2006 15:09 - 629 of 1009

Boxer

Agree fully with the frustrating nature

the danger with that theory is that is what we have all expected from the last 2 years results and hence despite encouraging results they were not as good as many were hoping for.

In addition, whilst adding additional revenue sources they are of a lower margin style than the fraud business and hence are likely to reduce the fair PE ratio the company trades to.

Ultimately until the results are released and are in black and white we are all guessing to a degree, a great deal of this caused by the fact that all the contracts RTD announce never have any value assigned to them so it is difficult to quantify the added value they provide

canary9 - 09 Feb 2006 15:33 - 630 of 1009

This will be a different business going forward as there will be a dramatic change in the revenue line next year. It will have gone from a price to sales of 3 or 4 for 2004 to less than 1 for 2006, which is low for a growth business. Although, the fuel card business may be lower margin , the higher fuel prices will help and, if they are managing to grow the business it will certainly underpin the current share price IMHO. If on top they are making good progress in the CNP market, I can see a re-rating of the shares after the results.
I am therefore a buyer at 1.20 , and would not consider selling before the results at less than 2.00. DYOR

Fred1new - 09 Feb 2006 16:13 - 631 of 1009

I think one of the problems with this share is that some in the market can remember the SP of 1912p 13/3/2000. and since that date its rollercoaster ride.

Many jump when there has been any improvement. Personally the market always hyped the share, although the board have given fair appraisals.

I have been lucky buying and selling this time, but have quite a large holding (for me) now, which I intend to hold until the results and probably well after.

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