This sums up much of my thinking - I hold a few and swing trade a few and even trade intraday sometimes ......

I think there is a lot of slack that management can cut out of the costs and would also anticipate sector consolidation ..... good value currently and have been holding their own in a falling market. Lot of US interest.

ains


Edited by Dominic White
(Filed: 08/02/2003)


Texting makes MmO2 sexy but it's also risky

More and more Britons are discovering the joys of textual intercourse. In the month of December, we fired off more than 50m mobile messages a day, and next Friday (that's Valentine's Day, folks, in case you'd forgotten) we'll send considerably more than that.



It emerged this week that the chief beneficiary of this craze is MmO2 . BT's former mobile phone division revealed that it gets a higher proportion of revenues from texting than any of the other three operators.

Revenue from messaging grew at its fastest rate ever in the last quarter, up 19pc, and data services as a proportion of MmO2 's revenue rose to 17.7pc from 15.6pc.

More good news was the rise in MmO2 's average revenues per customer. ARPUs, as nerdy analysts like to dub them, grew by 5pc to 243 in the UK and by 9pc in Germany to 212.

MmO2 now has 19.1m subscribers and in Britain it may be the smallest player, with 11.9m users, but it is growing faster than its rivals - testament to the success of its rebranding from BT Cellnet.

Only 114,000 of its 503,000 new UK subscribers were higher-spending contract customers, but MmO2 claims its pre-pay customers have started spending more than before.

Customer growth in Germany, which continues to be dominated by T-Mobile and Vodafone, is less impressive and the MmO2 share price ascribes little or no value to this part of the business.

That seems unfair, given the fact that the group has attracted higher-spending customers and has made a decent fist of turning the operation around. An eventual sale or merger is almost as inevitable as a disposal of the Dutch unit, which is losing customers.

MmO2 's larger rival Vodafone is trading on a free cashflow yield of 6pc, while at 49p this week, MmO2 's equivalent valuation remains negative. It might not have Vodafone's scale or profitability but there is room for upside. A risky buy.

Qualcomm: 3G will beat Wi-Fi
10:58 Wednesday 19th March 2003
Ben Charny, CNET News.com


The mobile phone technology giant is arguing that Wi-Fi will prove to be a short-lived phenomenon once 3G gets rolling
Breaking ranks with other mobile phone industry leaders, Qualcomm chief executive Irwin Jacobs said on Tuesday that mobile phone providers don't need to spice up their mix of offerings with access to Wi-Fi networks.

Speaking at the Cellular Telecommunications and Internet Association (CTIA) conference in New Orleans, Jacobs said providers should instead stick with using cellular technology such as 3G, which is already matching the download speeds of a Wi-Fi network, is cheaper to operate, and covers more ground than Wi-Fi's 300-foot range.



"As these high-speed cellular networks begin to spread across the country, they will become the preferred service," Jacobs told thousands of wireless executives gathered for the CTIA Wireless 2003 show.

Jacobs was weighing in on what has become a big debate among the nation's top carriers. They've all built high-speed wireless networks using 3G technologies with names like CDMA 2000 1xrtt, or 2.5G technology such as General Packet Radio Service (GPRS) -- doubling the capacity of their networks for voice calls and creating a wireless Web network capable of matching landline Web speeds. And now most are adding Wi-Fi to the mix, eyeing the market for commercial "hot spots", places such as hotel lobbies or coffee shops where wireless Web access is made available to the public via Wi-Fi for a fee.

The beginning of war on Iraq has prompted a surge of online discussion and text messaging, as users seek out information and respond with their own instant feedback
Moments after the first missiles hit Iraq, Web surfers around the world logged on to get the latest news and unleash their own barrage of messages.

Online news portals in the United States and China -- which have nearly a quarter of a billion Web users between them -- reported three times as much traffic as usual, showing the power of the Net as a major source of information and ringing up profits for Web portals.

Ains, What is L2 looking like for O2 now & any predictions. Currently @49.75↑2%.

fairly well balanced at this time - 50p is a barrier but as soon as war is 'over' and we have news I can see them going a lot higher - sitting on mone at this time and added in the dip




Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (46.67%) 7 (65.29%) 1,058,173 49.08 - 49.64 562,444 (34.71%) 8 (53.33%)
5% (51.72%) 15 (63.32%) 2,040,664 48.87 - 49.84 1,181,979 (36.68%) 14 (48.28%)
10% (55.81%) 24 (63.30%) 3,464,089 48.30 - 50.29 2,008,170 (36.70%) 19 (44.19%)
15% (54.72%) 29 (58.99%) 4,769,089 47.44 - 50.97 3,315,951 (41.01%) 24 (45.28%)
50% (54.24%) 32 (62.95%) 5,668,670 46.75 - 50.99 3,335,727 (37.05%) 27 (45.76%)
100% (51.56%) 33 (62.50%) 5,676,670 46.74 - 51.24 3,406,723 (37.50%) 31 (48.44%)
all (51.56%) 33 (62.50%) 5,676,670 46.74 - 51.24 3,406,723 (37.50%) 31 (48.44%

Ains, What is L2 looking like for O2 now & any predictions. Hit high of 50 @13:00↑2%.

Just looking at the shsares as we come close to 50p again .... these will fly one day - when the markets turn

fairly evenly matched on L2albeit a bid buy order of half a million is looking for a seller @ 49.25p


ains



Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (44.00%) 11 (60.19%) 1,763,131 49.07 - 49.62 1,166,135 (39.81%) 14 (56.00%)
5% (53.85%) 21 (73.48%) 5,303,672 48.76 - 49.77 1,914,147 (26.52%) 18 (46.15%)
10% (58.82%) 30 (72.17%) 6,724,558 48.54 - 50.03 2,593,729 (27.83%) 21 (41.18%)
15% (55.93%) 33 (67.90%) 7,259,558 48.29 - 50.76 3,431,529 (32.10%) 26 (44.07%)
50% (54.69%) 35 (69.96%) 8,039,158 47.77 - 50.78 3,451,305 (30.04%) 29 (45.31%)
100% (52.17%) 36 (69.56%) 8,047,158 47.76 - 51.03 3,522,301 (30.44%) 33 (47.83%)
all (52.17%) 36 (69.56%) 8,047,158 47.76 - 51.03 3,522,301 (30.44%) 33 (47.83%)

Ains. With the Buy order exceeding the Sell orders does that 'normally' mean the offer will rise or is it the opposite. With the L2 for VOD on the SELL side order the price of 114 represents the offer price and the BUY side 113.75 the bid. Hence the green strip being greater on the SELL increases the OFFER and Price is that right or does one have to look at the 5% and below orders?

That's right about the bid and the ask - the lowest buy order is the bid and the lowest sell order the offer.

On the question of the numbrr of buy or sell orders its much more difficult - in general terms you will usually be right but does depend on the timiing of the orders - individual volumes and totals involved in the price bands.

You need to have a look at sets for a day or two to get the feel .... why not take advantage of the moneyam free offer?



ains

I have been looking at VOD and it does not help me really hence the question. The Free Level2 they provide for VOD is the same as the sets you refer to right? Did you get back into TWT when it hit your entry price or waiting to see what happens. So glad I stayed out else I would have risked everything once again?

I rebought some of my trading shares in TWT but still sitting on some profits - i am looking at them now for an intraday dip maybe - but happy to wait for the right time. I hold maybe a million and a quarter at this time.

oom and vod are the same as far as sets is concerned

What price did you top up your holding at? Was it 2.3 low hit today? O2 really strong today.

oom is really strong - has been despite the markets - someone accumulating maybe

TWT - various prices but happy to pay 220p or less - I think i have missed the best chance today though

Trading up date - in line with market forecasts/expectations - DAISA analyst Mathew Lewis is impressed -ING Damien Chew has them as a buy and says no surprises


ains



LONDON (Reuters) - Mobile phone group mmO2 has said it expects full-year core earnings to rise in line with analysts' expectations and that it will beat a 10 percent revenue growth target at its main British division.
The London-based group OOM.L , Europe's fifth-largest wireless operator, expected earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to be in line with analysts' forecasts, ranging from 804 million to 892 million pounds.

The consensus EBITDA estimate for the year to the end of March was 838 million pounds, mmO2 said, which would represent a near doubling of the 433 million pounds generated last year.

The company, once part of Britain's BT BT.L , also said it expected its UK division to show second-half service revenue growth in the "mid-teens", meaning it would beat a target of at least 10 percent growth set at the start of the year.

"We are confident that we can continue to deliver improved operational and financial performance and to build the value of the group," Chief Executive Peter Erskine said in a statement.

The company reiterated that capital expenditure would be higher in the second-half than the first, as it had warned at the first-half results.

Accounting standards require it to review the carrying value of its assets on the balance sheet at the end of the year, mmO2 said.

After delivering its first positive EBITDA in the first-half, O2 Germany would show further growth, mmO2 said in its final statement before reporting full-year results on May 21.

MmO2 expected O2 Ireland to see margin improvement and earnings growth, while loss-making O2 Netherlands would break even for the full year. Industry sources say mmO2 has been trying to sell the Dutch unit to one of its rivals.

Shares in mmO2, which closed at 49 pence on Thursday, have underperformed the DJ Stoxx pan-European telecoms index .SXKP by 10 percent in the last 12 months.

Clearly some expectations were higher ......


LONDON (AFX) - mm02 PLC saw its shares fall in early trade as investors responded cautiously to the mobile phone company's latest trading update.
At 9.22 am, mm02 was down 3/4 pence, or 1.53 pct, at 48-1/4 pence.

In a statement, the company said its earnings before interest, tax and debt amortisation (EBITDA) for the 12 months to March would meet average analyst estimates of 838 mln stg.

That compares to analyst forecast range of 804-892 mln stg.

"Given the forecast range, I am sure some brokers will have to lower their estimates for the firm's profits following today's statement," said one London-based analyst who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

Other sector watchers said investors may be concerned at the fact that the company gave little or no guidance over its prospects for 2004.

"The release gave very little detail. There was no mention of 2004 service revenue growth in the UK, which might be an area of focus (for investors)," said Merrill Lynch analyst Linda Mutschler.

The company said its UK business would this year see annual service revenue grow at a rate above its original 10 pct target.

It also said O2 UK is making "steady progress" towards its goal of delivering an EBITDA margin of 30 pct by March 2004.

Its German business, meanwhile, is expected to post a rise in EBITDA over the full year.

mm02 is due to release its full-year results on May 21 2003.

March 28, 2003

MmO2 on track to meet City forecasts
by our business staff TIMES



MmO2, the mobile phone operator spun off from British Telecom, has said it is on track to meet analysts' expectations for underlying earnings as service revenue growth continued at UK operations.

Mm02 said it expected profits before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda) for the year to the end of this month to come in at about the 838 million expected in the City.

The firm's core UK business was set to deliver growth in service revenues above the company's 10 per cent target.

Dutch operations may follow German unit into delivering a profit, on an ebitda basis.

"We have continued to make good progress towards our key targets," Peter Erskine, chief executive, said.

Spending on infrastructure for next generation mobile phones, however, increased in the second half of the year, despite cost controls.

The firm also hinted at writedowns, saying it would be "reviewing the balance sheet carrying value of its assets".

MmO2 shares stood 1.25p lower at 47.75p in morning trade.

MM02 SEES PROFITS RISE SKY NEWS

Mobile phone group mmO2 says it expects full-year core earnings to rise in line with analysts' expectations.

It is predicting that earnings at its main British division will beat a 10% revenue growth target.


The London-based group, Europe's fifth-largest wireless operator, expected pre-tax earnings to be in line with analysts' forecasts of between 804m and 892m.

The consensus estimate for the year to the end of March was 838m, mmO2 said, which would represent a near doubling of the 433m generated last year.

Target beating

The company, once part of Britain's BT, also said it expected its UK division to show second-half service revenue growth in the "mid-teens".

That means it would beat a target of at least 10% growth set at the start of the year.

"We are confident that we can continue to deliver improved operational and financial performance and to build the value of the group," CEO Peter Erskine said.

The company reiterated that capital expenditure would be higher in the second-half than the first, as it had warned at the first-half results.




Last Updated: 10:17 UK, Friday March 28, 2003

LONDON (SHARECAST) - MM02, the former mobile phone unit of BT is on course to analysts forecasts of about 838m in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation from revenue of 4.8bn to end March, it said today.

Chief executive Peter Erskine said, "In the second half we have continued to make good progress towards our key targets. Looking ahead, we are confident that we can continue to deliver improved operational and financial performance."

MmO2 also underlined its growing confidence in its German with market share growth and financial performance ahead of original expectations.

No mention was made on the future for the Netherlands business, which is rumoured to be up for sale. O2 Netherlands is expected to deliver positive EBITDA for the second half and to be close to EBITDA break-even for the full year, said MM02.

Currently↓4%@47 despite inline results. Will probably go to 46.5↓5%. Vol @90M > VOD. What's L2 looking like & do you think 47 is the intraday offer low or could it reach 46.5 after US opens~↓50pts. The BUYS far outnumber the SELLS, perhaps lower possible?

Intraday looks to have levalled off but futures are off and the overall market feel is negative - L2 looks like its picking up but I am inclined to wait for US open - it is the weekend coming up ..... I am looking to buy though




Buy orders Sell orders
Num(%) Num Vol(%) Vol VWAP Vol Vol(%) Num Num(%)
1% (64.29%) 9 (65.42%) 940,568 46.69 - 47.23 497,199 (34.58%) 5 (35.71%)
5% (45.16%) 14 (35.04%) 1,117,628 46.61 - 47.48 2,072,131 (64.96%) 17 (54.84%)
10% (42.86%) 18 (37.19%) 2,370,282 45.87 - 48.06 4,003,766 (62.81%) 24 (57.14%)
15% (37.50%) 18 (27.90%) 2,370,282 45.87 - 48.98 6,124,970 (72.10%) 30 (62.50%)
50% (38.89%) 21 (33.91%) 3,156,946 44.90 - 49.00 6,153,570 (66.09%) 33 (61.11%)
100% (34.43%) 21 (33.58%) 3,156,946 44.90 - 49.17 6,244,342 (66.42%) 40 (65.57%)
all (34.43%) 21 (33.58%) 3,156,946 44.90 - 49.17 6,244,342 (66.42%) 40 (65.57%)

0-1% (64.29%) 9 (65.42%) 940,568 46.69 - 47.23 497,199 (34.58%) 5 (35.71%)
1-5% (29.41%) 5 (10.11%) 177,060 46.61 - 47.48 1,574,932 (89.89%) 12 (70.59%)
5-10% (36.36%) 4 (39.34%) 1,252,654 45.87 - 48.06 1,931,635 (60.66%) 7 (63.64%)
10-15% (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 45.87 - 48.98 2,121,204 (100.00%) 6 (100.00%)
15-50% (50.00%) 3 (96.49%) 786,664 44.90 - 49.00 28,600 (3.51%) 3 (50.00%)
50-100% (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 44.90 - 49.17 90,772 (100.00%) 7 (100.00%)
100%- (0.00%) 0 (0.00%) 0 44.90 - 49.17 0 (0.00%) 0 (0.00%)

Looks like we have seen the bottom intraday


Friday 28th March 2003
Reuters


Orange has signed interconnect deals with all the UK's mobile phone network operators to help increase photo-messaging traffic
Orange says its customers with multimedia messaging service-compatible (MMS) phones can send and receive picture messages on the three other UK networks.

Orange, the country's largest mobile operator, said it had signed MMS "interconnect" agreements with T-Mobile and Vodafone, having already signed one with mmO2. The new agreements would take effect for 230,000 Orange customers on 31 March.



All the operators are keen to allow their customers to send picture messages to friends regardless of the network, in an effort to create more high-margin revenue streams.

Picture messaging kicked off in the UK late last year.