A thread set up and dedicated to Gold and Mining stocks.

Gold could be set to bounce up again in the near future and throughout the autumn and winter. Higher oil prices and inflationary worries both here and in the states mean its an excelent hedge against the falling dollar and weaking markets.

Please post which stocks you feel may benefit other posters. Lets all try and make some money from Mining.

cheers GF.

Almost 2 Million shares traded on AFE so far today. Does anyone know what is going on?

Further to my recent post regarding South African Resources (SFU), the SP continues to rise steadily, up 6% today.

Regards

PTH

hi guys
have you got any views about bhp billiton. it seems the share price is stuck at around 520p. i have got a bet (BUY) on it 533-503. I THOUGHT THE PRICE WOULD RISE QUITE QUICKLY DUE TO VERY GOOD COMMENTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS. PLEASE FEEL FREE TO SHARE ANY VIEWS.
CHEERS

Be carefull Zeb, have a gander at the home page on here and the outlook from the US second item down, a suprise profit warning from commodity and alluminium giant Alcoa. Could affect the sector
cheers Gf.

hi goldfinger
thanks for replying. There will be as well a report about the china's growth state on monday which will be very important for the mining sector. I personnally think there will be a little slowdown . IF there is a downtrend hope 505 p (bhp billiton) will be a good support.

cheers

Seb thanks for that info on the China report , I wasnt aware and I have a fair % of my portfolio in metals. I will be looking out for the report.

cheers GF.

Feature Story
Date: September 09, 2004

Anglo Pacific Now Has To Get Real Value For Its Unlisted Investments In Canada

It is never the easiest of tasks to dissect the results from Anglo Pacific Group and the interim results to end June show the pattern has not changed. Profits before tax were up from 1.74 million to 2.7 million, but 718,000 of this increase was accounted for by the sale of fixed assets. Peter Boycott, the chairman, says that With the increasing demand for energy products from China, India and the Far East, the outlook for coking and steaming coal prices looks to remain buoyant. Developing our coal energy interests in Canada and elsewhere will remain a major focus for the group. The coal royalties from two mines in Queensland, Australia, are the engine room for the company but they only increased by 510,000 so presumably the full impact of high coal prices is yet to come.

The other problem of which investors have to be aware is that the royalty interests do not necessarily provide a steady and rising stream of income. They arise when the two producers are mining from the private rather than the Crown areas of the mines and are paid in arrears. Last year mining at the Kestrel mine operated by Rio Tinto and the Crinum mine of BHP Billiton took place predominantly in the Queensland Governments area of the coal deposits. This year it was expected to switch back again, but there is not too much evidence of this as yet. The directors are maintaining their strategy of paying out between 40 and 60 per cent of net royalties after 30 per cent Australian tax as dividend, but will not make up their minds about the interim until November. Provided the mining takes place in the private areas and sales of coal get full benefit from higher prices, investors could be in for a treat. At the beginning of August a final dividend was paid for the year to end December 2003 which makes clear just how much in arrears the word arrears implies.

The company lays great store by the value of these coal royalty interests which rose from 44.3 million to 47.1 million in the half year. Anglo Pacific also has a 65 per cent interest in the 665 million tonne Groundhog coal deposit as well as owning the 121.5 million tonne Trefi deposit in the well established Peace River coal field. Both of these are in British Columbia and work is continuing on them encouraged by the much increased activity in that part of Canada during the last six months with projects going ahead at Perry Creek, Burnt River and Willow Creek amongst others. With higher world prices for metallurgical, thermal and domestic coal, Groundhog and Peace River have now become valuable assets which are still carried in the books at negligible cost. Discussions on developing them with joint venture partners continue, but it has to be admitted that Groundhog is in a pretty remote area.

In addition the company has a 15 per cent interest in the Merritt coal bed methane project. Coal bed methane is an emerging industry in Canada and the US is well ahead of it in the development of natural gas resources. Merritts resources consist of 31 billion cubic feet of coal bed methane and 218 million tonnes of bituminous grade coal. This interest is in process of being reversed into a Canadian quoted vehicle where funds will be raised locally to take the projects forward. The background for developing Merritt remains positive as the move will put real value on the stake at a time when the directors have seen a distinct shift in sentiment towards coal energy and oil in the first half of 2004.

In the period under review Anglo Pacific therefore took some profits on its gold and precious metal investments as indicated by the sale of fixed assets and has increased its exposure to base metals as well as coal and coal energy. Few details are given, but certainly the investment in Kirkland Lake Gold was reduced. The company still has a holding of nearly 20 per cent in Platinum Australia , however, which has recently announced projects in South Africa. These involve the process technology developed at the Panton project in Australia which produces a PGM concentrate of a grade high enough to go direct to refiners, cutting out smelting. As a result the technology could produce good revenue returns without the requirement for substantial inward investment. It is somewhat ironic, nevertheless, that a company which has tended to shun South Africa finds itself transported there, like it or not, as it would be difficult to liquidate this holding without crystalising a significant loss.

The company has a number of stakes in other quoted mining companies which are concentrated in North America, Canada and Australia. These include a stake of nearly 20 per cent in Canadian listed Alto Ventures for which the interest in the Oxford Lake gold property was swapped. Together with the coal and coal energy projects in Canada these were valued at the end of June at around 7.45 million net of the realised profits. Cash amounted to 1.5 million with no borrowings and unused bank facilities of 300,000. Anglo Pacific is therefore in a strong financial position and still has 29 million of tax losses to be carried forward against capital gains. For its next trick it has to come up with a deal, or deals, which will put real value into its Canadian unlisted interests.

cheers Gf.

All blue for NML and TSG this morning, lots of small buys, but no trades for POG so far, CDN is a share that can drive investers mad, with these kind of shares its just a waiting game and investers in these shares not like waiting.

NML up 0.25p

Hows this, from todays Investors Chronicle

149p - Oil & gas - Emerald Energy is not an obvious stock to buy from among the list of small oil explorers. Its recent history has been marked by a series of debacles and the company almost went under last year. However, there are reasons to believe that a new management team has the company on an even keel, and that there could be considerable upside.

This is the story so far. A previous management pursued a strategy of high- cost, high-risk exploration in Colombia. They found oil alright and, by 2000, the Gigante 1 well was producing at 3,000 barrels a day. Then it blew up, killing a worker and destroying the production rig. The loss of production cut off cash flow and crippled the company's finances. This time last year, Emerald was in serious danger of going bust.

At that point, Alastair Beardsall approached Emerald Energy with a rescue package involving a rights issue backed by Russian investors. One condition was that the entire board resigned. They had little choice, and the guard was duly changed last August. The current board includes Mr Beardsall as chairman and chief executive, industry veteran Paul Ellis as chief operating officer, and three senior non-executives, including former National Power boss Keith Henry.

The new team has got off to a sensible start. They have cut costs hard - the annual report is now monochrome and factual - and the group hopes to persuade its 28,000 or so shareholders to accept more electronic communication to cut down on administration costs. They have abandoned the high-risk strategy of deep wells, in favour of shallower ones in established areas.

Emerald's first new exploration well in years, Campo Rico 1 also in Colombia, has now struck oil and is producing more than 1,000 barrels a day. The company was also awarded a new 'association contract' covering a different licence area. So what was once a single-well company now has two producing wells and three licence areas. With some degree of credibility restored, Mr Beardsall again came to the equity markets. Emerald has just raised 9.3m to finance further exploration drilling. The shares have also undergone a 100-into-one consolidation.

Emerald plans to drill at least two more exploration wells on Campo Rico this year, and possibly an exploration well on the Fortuna prospect in the first quarter of next year. The company currently has 11m barrels of proven and probable reserves, while Mr Beardsall thinks he could add another 9m this year and much more next year. Longer term, there is the possibility of another well at Gigante and of exploration outside Colombia.

This is where Waterford Holdings might come in useful. Waterford, which is controlled by Michael Kroupeev, a young Russian entrepreneur, holds 46 per cent of Emerald. Mr Beardsall stresses that Waterford is a passive investor and does not get involved in running the company. But, if Emerald were to seek opportunities in the former Soviet Union, it would be logical to use Waterford's connections there.

Obviously, a company that has come so close to failure is a risky investment and Emerald comes with a prominent health warning - it's not for widows and orphans. It is still small, and depends heavily on operations in a tricky political and operational environment. It faces the geological risks that are inherent in oil exploration. It barely registers with City analysts. And its biggest shareholder - Waterford - is likely to want an exit at some stage. But the company now looks financially stable and is back doing what small oil companies should be doing. In an overheated part of the stock market, Emerald looks like a little gem of a recovery story. Buy.

Your on the wrong thread this is gold & mining.

Hi all, you guys have any thoughts on AGU?

http://htt://aol.fool.co.uk/valueinvesting/2004/vi040917

An interesting feature from the fool site............

VALUE INVESTING
A Value Play On Gold

By Stephen Bland (TMFPyad)
September 17, 2004


Gold exploration and Russia. Two features of a share which even individually are not exactly guaranteed to lead to a low-risk situation. Combine them and you have an ideal and powerful high-risk play. Established gold mining is risky enough. Exploring for the stuff whilst not yet having mined an ounce is infinitely more so for an investor. Stick it all in Russia, a country not exactly famed for centuries of political stability, and you have the wonderful poker hand that is Trans-Siberian Gold (LSE: TSG). (www.trans-siberiangold.com)

And yet, I wrote about this company for readers of my Value Investor newsletter in the February 2004 issue as a speculative value play. However, I did lay on with a trowel the fact that it was highly speculative. So, speculative certainly, but a value play?

It had no profits and no dividends. It did have net cash and it did have assets in excess of the share price though. Forget the cash, it will likely be consumed to fund the mining exploration and the other assets consist principally of the estimates of gold reserves in the areas it has licence to mine. Those estimates are notoriously flexible as I have noted from observing the history of mining shares, starting in my case with Aussie nickel mines back in the late sixties. But it's an old, old story.

My (highly speculative) value proposition was based on the gold in the ground being estimated to be worth well over the share price. Since February, the news has been good. The shares are now around the same level as the newsletter's buy price, about 131p, though they have fluctuated a lot in between.

The major news has been that Anglogold Ashanti (LSE: AGD), one of the world's largest gold mining groups, will subscribe a total of 17.6m to acquire a 29.9% stake in TSG in two tranches at prices of 136.95p and 149.4p thus adding money and technical support and increasing confidence that TSG will reach production. This important move increases my confidence in the shares too, if a company like that is willing to come on board. TSG has as result in my view stepped a little away from the sort of fantastically risky wildcat mineral exploration world that it inhabited and more into the established mining club. Only a bit more, but more.

Other news on the exploration indicates much higher than previously estimated gold resources. Total resources are now said to be 3.7m ounces, a lot more than was stated at the time of the listing on AIM in November 2003 and in an update issued January 2004.

Mining shares are influenced heavily by the market price of their mineral. This relationship can be very geared and moreover, that gearing is often emotional. By this I mean that the shares may be driven up and down by movements in the mineral price which won't necessarily have a similarly proportional effect on profits.

TSG is no exception and any strong movement in the gold price will likely affect the shares in a geared fashion, the price magnifying any large rises or falls in the metal. It all adds to the speculative features of this share. Added risk, but potentially added reward.

Summing up, there has been nothing but good news coming out of TSG since I first wrote it up and yet the shares have not really taken this into account to date. However, readers must note that despite all this, make no mistake, TSG still remains an extremely speculative value play. Don't go in if you can't live with that. If you do go in, be prepared for a roller coaster ride.

cheers GF.

Could be an interesting investment, certainly one for the watch list.

Dig in for profit
Investment extra, Daily Mail
12 September 2004

OAL and investors have been uneasy bedfellows. But soaring energy prices are changing that, lifting shares in UK Coal from 120p to 165 1/2p in a year.


The industry's history is long and troubled. UK Coal's is short and troubled. It was called RJB Mining until Richard Budge quit in 2001.



The economics are being transformed. Imports once undercut home-produced coal hugely. Now imports cost 37 a tonne, while UK Coal has been selling at 30.



It lost 5.8m in the half to June, hit by a dispute and unsettling shifts in production. The full year should broadly break even. But from 2005, profitable new contracts kick in, including a five-year deal with the Drax power station in Yorkshire at close to the world price.



Charles Kernot, at broker Seymour Pierce, expects 2005 profits of nearly 30m for earnings per share* of 14.6p.



The real upside is property. Kernot has done an impressive analysis. UK Coal owns 49,000 acres. Kernot values the land at 200m, which could rise to 490m once redeveloped.


UK Coal's market value is just 240m. The other attraction is a 6% yield* on a well-underpinned dividend*.


Coal mining remains difficult and dangerous with quarrelsome unions. They will want their share of rising prosperity. But there should be enough to go round.

cheers GF.

Right I havent beleived in investing directly in an oil company untill today and in the last few months have been investing in OIL SERVICE companys Hamworthy and Corac, you know the picks and shovels tale.

Anyway after doing a lot of research I really feel that SOCO INTERNATIONAL SIA as been left behind in the mass bull market on oil companies.

Forget, Burren, Regal, Dana and the rest in my opinion this is the one to be on.
JUst look at this report from the last results...................

Soco International PLC
02 September 2004

SOCO International plc

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 June 2004

SOCO is an international oil and gas exploration and production company,
headquartered in London. The Company has interests in Vietnam, Mongolia, Yemen,
Libya, Tunisia and Thailand, with production operations in Yemen, Tunisia and
Mongolia. SOCO today announces interim results for the half year ended 30 June
2004.

HIGHLIGHTS

Operating profit of 4.1 million (2003: 4.2 million)

Net profit of 2.0 million (2003: 2.5 million)

Earnings per share of 2.9p (2003: 3.6p)

Cash balance of 26.7 million at half year end

Finalised the sale of an interest in ODEX creating a consortium of SOCO
(34%), Oilinvest (46%) and Gazprombank (20%) in the special purpose
entity to progress initiatives in Libya and other countries

Continued reinterpretation of existing 3D seismic and acquisition of 650
sq km of new 3D seismic in Vietnam prior to commencement of drilling in
Q1 2005

3D seismic programme completed in Mongolia with two wells drilled, both
apparent discoveries, and a third well spudded

First ever deviated Basement well drilling in East Shabwa in Yemen



Ed Story, President and Chief Executive of SOCO, said:

'Following an extended period of quiet preparation, the release of interim
results coincides with the commencement of a very active drilling programme for
SOCO, one that I believe has company transforming potential'

2 September 2004

ENQUIRIES:
SOCO International plc Tel: 020 7457 2020 (today)
Ed Story, President and Chief Executive Tel: 020 7747 2000 (thereafter)
Roger Cagle, Deputy Chief Executive
and Chief Financial Officer
College Hill Tel: 020 7457 2020
Tony Friend
Nick ElwesENDS.

Youl be sorry if you miss the boat on this one.

cheers GF.

Seems like someone from another board agrees and puts forwards these points for buying..............................

So.....why buy more Soco now?

Four inter-related reasons:
1) Newsflow is now very much in sight on several fronts. None of it has yet emerged though, so analysts have yet to revisit their old views and recommendations. There was, and indeed remains, a chance to get in before serious interest picks up again.
2) There is, IMO, a decent chance of some very large price rises within the next 6 months, accompanied by increased downside protection. Once newsflow starts, the shares will come back onto institutional radar screens - you can wait for it to emerge, or you can speculate now at what I think will prove to be a lower price -perhaps much lower!
3) The market thinks there is nothing happening and has gone to sleep on the prospects. You can see this in the broadly sideways drift and very low volumes on most days [until this week]. They are wrong. Yemen and perhaps Mongolia should provide some near-term good news.
4) The time to buy is when no-one else seems very interested.ENDS.

Looks very interesting and could be a cracker of a stock.

cheers GF.

Up she goes , up 13.5p, and looks to have plenty of legs. Will make a seperate thread for this one.

cheers GF.

Soco now up 22p, looks strong.

cheers GF.