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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

boxerdog - 14 Feb 2006 18:59 - 642 of 1009

Opt,I'm surprised your surprised.I bought in once again last week (monday 1.43p bad timing) as a rise up to results is expected,as is a fall post results.This year i feel will be different due to the obvious diversification in RTD'S business portfolio.I now anticipate a rise in the SP.to results day and hopefully well into 2006.Fingers crossed.

optomistic - 14 Feb 2006 19:44 - 643 of 1009

Fundy and Boxer, I suppose no one should ever be surprised as to what happens in stock trading. Perhaps as Fundy says as the stock has been walked down it is now being walked back up. Certainly the volume of buys does not appear to be that great as cause this rise over the last two days, although as said times before, what happens in trades on Virt-x is very difficult to account for. As for me I'm remaining cautious on this one, large moves up on lightly traded stocks can be just as fast followed by large moves down. Would like confirmation as to the actual performance of the company at the results even if it means missing the first part of the rise.
regards
opto

pachandl - 14 Feb 2006 20:09 - 644 of 1009

I am surprised that Fund/Boxer are surprised that Opto is surprised. But perhaps I have been drinking too much this evening. However, I am slightly worried at the low volume - hoping that there is a buyer in the wings or that volume picks up as we approach results day. If neither materialises then we might well oscillate between 140 and 150 for some time to come.

Fred1new - 14 Feb 2006 23:44 - 645 of 1009

if you want a little support for holding besides its Fundamentals and RNS, have a look at Directors and Institutional buying over last 12-18 months, Surprised me pleasantly.

Douggie - 15 Feb 2006 10:28 - 646 of 1009

I'm just bemused ??.. ;-\

Fred1new - 15 Feb 2006 12:44 - 647 of 1009

Douggie what we need is for you and Fundy to buy 500,0000 shares each giving the price a bit of momentum. We all know you both are just waiting to

Douggie - 15 Feb 2006 12:45 - 648 of 1009

Fred I wish I had that many pennies...........!

pachandl - 15 Feb 2006 13:33 - 649 of 1009

I have 500,000 pennies but alas, now that RTD has lost its penny-share status, it will not buy me that many extra shares. It looks like yesterday's sudden burst in the sp was a one-off. Keeping my fingers xxx'd for the week leading up to the results.

boxerdog - 15 Feb 2006 14:03 - 650 of 1009

At this time last year pre results RTD. were trading at 1.80 based on better than expected trading figures.They currently stand round the 1.49 mark.Bearing in mind profits are again to be in excess of expectation and,recent additions to the company have pleased with their contribution.whats therefore holding things back. 1.80p appears modest to me.It's not rocket science just common sense.go on dip your toe in the water its not cold,promise!.

pachandl - 15 Feb 2006 15:41 - 651 of 1009

Boxer - the market does not really operate on common-sense. However, it is worth pointing out that last year RTD were still being looked at as operating in the "sexy" sector on on-line fraud and could therefore "demand" a higher p/e rating. This year, although such activities will contribute to the bottom-line, RTD is looked more like a semi-utility in many ways - with a consequential drop in p/e expectations. I must admit to being disappointed but I do think that RTD's sp will continue to go up slowly from here. In many ways it reminds me of Speedy Hire's graph that eventually started going up slowly but surely every month - there is no substitute for good management but there is also no substitute for the PI and fund manager's short-termism.

Douggie - 15 Feb 2006 17:18 - 652 of 1009

That is what we want/need very steady growth .......short term rockets only crashed ......xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxd ;o\

Douggie - 17 Feb 2006 11:19 - 653 of 1009

And again.......barely a damp squib even at mo. ......... :-[

pachandl - 17 Feb 2006 13:13 - 654 of 1009

Don't tell me the Friday effect has suddenly re-appeared? Blue!

Douggie - 17 Feb 2006 13:39 - 655 of 1009

nope it's RED !!!!!!!!!!!

pachandl - 17 Feb 2006 14:25 - 656 of 1009

Bugger - I spoke too soon - next time I will keep my mouth shut when I see the sp turn blue.

Fred1new - 17 Feb 2006 14:56 - 657 of 1009

No. For God sake can't we just send Douggie on holiday! Or even sacrifice him to rhe gods.



8-)

optomistic - 17 Feb 2006 15:03 - 658 of 1009

I'm sure it can't be Douggies fault.......but what are you buying next Douggie? :-)

pachandl - 17 Feb 2006 16:37 - 659 of 1009

So it was blue after all - but only marginally so unfortunately I have no money to send Douggie on holiday (even after he answers Opto).

Douggie - 17 Feb 2006 19:09 - 660 of 1009

Hi all.......yes I am sure it is my fault..especialy as it was my umpteenth birthday yesterday.

I won't be buying anything untill I can take a prifit here.........

and I'm NOT taking any profit 'till we pass 200p....that is my punishment for not selling this time last year when I knew I should!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

optomistic - 17 Feb 2006 19:30 - 661 of 1009

That's the way Douggie, hang on in there and BTW Happy birthday.
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