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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

pachandl - 15 Feb 2006 15:41 - 651 of 1009

Boxer - the market does not really operate on common-sense. However, it is worth pointing out that last year RTD were still being looked at as operating in the "sexy" sector on on-line fraud and could therefore "demand" a higher p/e rating. This year, although such activities will contribute to the bottom-line, RTD is looked more like a semi-utility in many ways - with a consequential drop in p/e expectations. I must admit to being disappointed but I do think that RTD's sp will continue to go up slowly from here. In many ways it reminds me of Speedy Hire's graph that eventually started going up slowly but surely every month - there is no substitute for good management but there is also no substitute for the PI and fund manager's short-termism.

Douggie - 15 Feb 2006 17:18 - 652 of 1009

That is what we want/need very steady growth .......short term rockets only crashed ......xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxd ;o\

Douggie - 17 Feb 2006 11:19 - 653 of 1009

And again.......barely a damp squib even at mo. ......... :-[

pachandl - 17 Feb 2006 13:13 - 654 of 1009

Don't tell me the Friday effect has suddenly re-appeared? Blue!

Douggie - 17 Feb 2006 13:39 - 655 of 1009

nope it's RED !!!!!!!!!!!

pachandl - 17 Feb 2006 14:25 - 656 of 1009

Bugger - I spoke too soon - next time I will keep my mouth shut when I see the sp turn blue.

Fred1new - 17 Feb 2006 14:56 - 657 of 1009

No. For God sake can't we just send Douggie on holiday! Or even sacrifice him to rhe gods.



8-)

optomistic - 17 Feb 2006 15:03 - 658 of 1009

I'm sure it can't be Douggies fault.......but what are you buying next Douggie? :-)

pachandl - 17 Feb 2006 16:37 - 659 of 1009

So it was blue after all - but only marginally so unfortunately I have no money to send Douggie on holiday (even after he answers Opto).

Douggie - 17 Feb 2006 19:09 - 660 of 1009

Hi all.......yes I am sure it is my fault..especialy as it was my umpteenth birthday yesterday.

I won't be buying anything untill I can take a prifit here.........

and I'm NOT taking any profit 'till we pass 200p....that is my punishment for not selling this time last year when I knew I should!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

optomistic - 17 Feb 2006 19:30 - 661 of 1009

That's the way Douggie, hang on in there and BTW Happy birthday.

Fred1new - 18 Feb 2006 09:21 - 662 of 1009

To Keep Douggie happy. I bought a few more on Thurday. I am not making a takeover bid yet, but I beginning to move in that direction.

Looking at the Charts (and my stars) I think we should have a positive week ahead.

skyhigh - 18 Feb 2006 13:19 - 663 of 1009

Hope so.. I'm 50% up from a yr ago... expect to be 100% up soon,, then I'm out...

boxerdog - 19 Feb 2006 08:45 - 664 of 1009

Douggie,guaranteed to cheer you up!!!.Excellent article in mail on sunday re.Retail decisions.Very positive culminating in a BUY!!!!!.recommendation. Last paragraph reads,'MIDAS VERDICT.RETAIL DECISIONS HAS STRONG POSITIONS IN EXPANDING MARKETS.PROFITS FOR 2006 COULD WELL TOP 12 MILLION,HELPED BY THE RECENT ACQUISITIONS.THE CURRENT SHARE PRICE OF 1.47 FAILS TO RECOGNISE ITS GROWTH POTENTIAL.buy!!!!!!!.
Such a statement reiterates postings on several BB's but this must carry credenceas,midas rarely calls it wrong.

skyhigh - 19 Feb 2006 11:06 - 665 of 1009

Good post, thanks Boxerdog >>> Sounds cool ! looks good ! Bring it on !

Fred1new - 19 Feb 2006 11:19 - 666 of 1009

SKy, I think this could be one for the future. It will probably wobble as usual on the results. If the results are as good as expected then the SP will probably drop back to recover nicely over the following 6ths. I have put some in my kids SIPPS as long term holds.
If you are a successful trader you may be smart enough to get in and out. I am not so.

arawli - 19 Feb 2006 15:16 - 667 of 1009

MIDAS SHARE TIPS
Fuel cards power a new boom
Midas is edited by Ben laurence
19 February 2006
STOCK market tales of boom to bust do not come much worse than this.

Retail Decisions saw its shares spike at the tail-end of the tech bubble. Two years later, they had lost more than 99% of their peak value.

But the company, whose roots lie in helping retailers to spot customers using stolen credit cards, has reinvented itself.

It is still involved in fraud prevention, particularly when charge cards and credit cards are used for transactions over the phone and via the internet, but now it makes most of its cash in the more humdrum business of operating fuel cards.

These are issued by companies to their lorry and van drivers to pay for petrol and diesel when they are out on the road. Drivers need not carry cash as the companies are billed direct for the fuel put into their vehicles.

Most of Retail Decisions' fuel card business is in Australia, but three months ago it bought a similar business, Fuelserv, which operates in Europe. The 21.5m deal was financed partly through debt and partly through a share placing.


In broad terms, the money a fuel card operator receives is a percentage of the value of each transaction. So rising fuel costs mean higher profits. Soon after the Fuelserv deal, Retail Decisions announced another, which took it into the 'stored value cards' market. It paid 12.9m cash for E Com Industries in Australia. Analysts reckon E Com could turn in operating profits of 2.5m in 2007.


A stored value card is in essence an electronic gift voucher. A customer hands over money for the card, which is then loaded electronically with that amount of credit. The card is given to someone who can then spend the credit either with the issuing retailer or a group of stores.

The same principle could be used in future for transactions such as social security payments.

And it could be dovetailed with the present fuel card operation, enabling Retail Decisions to offer a pre-pay fuel card.

Retail Decisions is due to report figures for 2005 on March 3. Midas is usually hesitant about tipping shares just before a company issues results, but investors can confidently expect profits of about 8m, giving earnings per share of about 9p.

Last month, forecasts were increased after chief executive Carl Clump said trading across the company was 'better than expected'.

Midas verdict: Retail Decisions has strong positions in expanding markets. Profits for 2006 could well top 12m, helped by the recent acquisitions. The current share price of 147p fails to recognise its growth potential. Buy.

Fundamentalist - 20 Feb 2006 08:32 - 668 of 1009

With regard to the P&F chart i posted a few weeks ago, it bounced from the support line and appears now to be breaking out at the top (though as i use end of day prices for signals i should wait for confirmation)

Douggie - 20 Feb 2006 09:33 - 669 of 1009

morning All :o)

pachandl - 20 Feb 2006 11:28 - 670 of 1009

Certainly no mourning today but will it keep the gains? With T10s being opened in the run up to the results (plus today's "artificial" spurt caused by Midas tip) there is a possibility that the price might react quite badly at the end of next week unless the results are really good. Anyway, here's hoping for an accelerated uptrend.
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