Results out soon in August.

Broker recos look very bullish and why not on a P/E of just over 6 to 2011.....

Thomas Cook Group PLC

FORECASTS 2010 2011
Date Rec Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
02-08-10 BUY 319.00 27.10 11.30 338.00 28.70 12.40

Exane BNP Paribas
02-08-10 BUY 116.00 26.62 10.75 319.00 28.87 11.66

Numis Securities Ltd
02-08-10 ADD 324.20 27.60 11.25 357.10 29.90 11.81

Oriel Securities
02-08-10 BUY 330.40 28.40 11.40 363.50 31.30 12.10

KBC Peel Hunt Ltd
30-07-10 BUY 301.06 25.22 10.75 313.36 26.23 10.93

WestLB
30-07-10 SELL 28.81 11.52 29.91 11.96

Shore Capital
30-07-10 HOLD 312.00 26.50 11.80 347.00 29.50 13.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-06-10 HOLD

Evolution Securities Ltd
11-02-10 None

Investec Securities [R]
09-02-10 BUY 327.00 27.30 11.74 352.23 29.39 12.49

Fyshe Horton Finney Ltd
25-01-10 BUY

Collins Stewart
24-12-09 BUY

Nomura Research Institute
25-09-09 RED

2010 2011
Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (�) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 316.42 26.98 11.36 342.50 29.39 11.96

1 Month Change 1.07 -0.22 0.01 3.43 -0.14 -0.14
3 Month Change -11.92 -1.09 -0.05 -11.79 -1.00 -0.44


GROWTH
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

Norm. EPS 2.76% 0.38% 8.92%
DPS 14.03% 10.80% 5.26%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2009 (A) 2010 (E) 2011 (E)

EBITDA �574.90m �589.69m �613.90m
EBIT �372.50m �420.55m �447.05m
Dividend Yield 5.38% 5.96% 6.27%
Dividend Cover 2.62x 2.38x 2.46x
PER 7.10x 7.07x 6.49x
PEG 2.57f 18.55f 0.73f
Net Asset Value PS -240.80p 224.47p 240.43p

i certainly did very nicely out of this stock and can't really complain that i sold this morning at 99, albeit sp is now 105 ....... my (greedy) gut feeling is to go short at this sort of level, though i see the order books are in balance

Why go short on a share with momentum on the upside ?

You may get lucky but its much easier shorting sh*te with downside momentum.

I just short anything tabby buys :-)

Back in long from the off. That gap has got to be closed for a kick off.

.

The one @90? :-)

MORGAN STANLEY 150p SP Target....

FULL NOTE.......

http://www.instutrade.com/media/22021/thomas-cook-group-ms.pdf

120,100,90 ?

There are a lot of assumptions in that note, but I'd be happy with 150p!

"Our price target increases from 100p to 150p. We use our new base case EBIT of £400m and assume it generates £150m of working capital inflows over the next three years (previously £50m), but we assume no disposals. We assume the company raises £300m of equity (£400m previously), which brings its adjusted net debt:EBITDAR in December to 2x, well below its old covenant of 3.75x. We assume the shares are worth 9x 2015 P/E proforma net income, a 20% discount to TUI Travel, and equivalent to 7.4x that year. We then deduct the new equity, implying the current shares could be worth 150p. The implied dilution at the current share price would be 23%."

dil - i may be wrong and i see i'm now 2.5p the wrong side, but i shall watch and cut if i feel i've been a silly boy .... however, there's been one hell of a rise and the news is out of the way ...... there's also a strong chance of some general heavy retrenchment in the very near future, let alone the long-rumoured rights issue for TCG

it's strange that there are still 2/3 major houses who reckon sp should be well below 100p (right the way down to 13p!)

Good volume, momentum and trend all say 'long' imo, Mr C. Why go against all that? My target is 130p. Will consider my options at that point.

14 Mar Thomas Cook Group... TCG HSBC Overweight 105.38 100.75 100.00 130.00 Reiterates

SP TARGET 130p.

i shan't try to piss against the wind, so may cut shortly .... no real harm done; just a little less profit in the back from this one

============

tooth out - all done :-)

Thomas Cook Group Price Target Raised to $2.24 at Morgan Stanley (TCG)
March 14th, 2013 - 0 comments - Filed Under - by Latisha Jones

Analysts at Morgan Stanley raised their price target on shares of Thomas Cook Group (LON: TCG) from $1.49 (100 GBX) to $2.24 (150 GBX) in a research report issued to clients and investors on Thursday. The firm currently has an “overweight” rating on the stock.

Other equities research analysts have also recently issued reports about the stock. Analysts at Numis Securities Ltd raised their price target on shares of Thomas Cook Group from $1.05 to $1.34 in a research note to investors on Wednesday. They now have a “hold” rating on the stock. Separately, analysts at Jefferies Group reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Thomas Cook Group in a research note to investors on Wednesday. They now have a $2.31 price target on the stock. Finally, analysts at Investec Securities reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Thomas Cook Group in a research note to investors on Wednesday. They now have a $1.79 price target on the stock.

Thomas Cook Group opened at 105.25 on Thursday. Thomas Cook Group has a 52-week low of GBX 13.28 and a 52-week high of GBX 97.375. The stock’s 50-day moving average is currently GBX 16.84. The company’s market cap is £928.2 million.

Thomas Cook Group plc operates under six geographic segments: UK, Central Europe, West & East Europe, Northern Europe, North America and Airlines Germany.

http://www.dailypolitical.com/finance/stock-market/thomas-cook-group-price-target-raised-to-2-24-at-morgan-stanley-tcg.htm

Just out.....

14 Mar Thomas Cook Group... TCG Credit Suisse Outperform 109.38 100.75 146.00 146.00 Retains

SP TARGET 146p

This is the one I like - target price gone from 8p to 100p. I think that just leaves Panmure Gordon out on a limb.

14 Mar Thomas Cook Group... TCG Barclays Capital Equal weight 111.13 100.75 8.00 100.00 Upgrades

It does nothing to endear broker forecasts does it.

Flippin' 'eck. Nipped out to the little boys room, only to find sp now up to 115p! Good decision Mr C. methinks! Clearly rise now too far, too fast, so may have to trim my target down a little.

UPDATE ON SHORTERS POSITION.

At the height in february nearly 10%
of stock was out on loan. As of close
yesterday it had dropped to just 4.84%
although significantly as you can see from
the chart the rate of closures has tailed
off which shows the increase in the SP over
last 2 days is primarily due to new open
long positions.... see details here.....

Company name Sector TDM Loan Stock Total Stock Stock on Loan % Last SOL Update Open Price High Price Low Price Close Price Vol trades Last OHLC Update

THOMAS COOK GROUP PLC Travel and Leisure TCG 43,068,900 889,854,000 4.84% 11 Mar 2013 91.0 106.1 91.0 100.75 50116100.0 13 Mar 2013

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Thomas Cook Group... Jefferies International Buy 115.88 - 155.00

Thomas Cook Group PLC (TCG)09:39 ET Mar 13, 2013Analyst Comment by Ian Rennardson at Jefferies & Company

"Plans to focus the product offer and hotel inventory is important as we believe Thomas Cook's past inability to sell the right product through the most efficient channel to the right customer at the right price has harmed profitability," said analyst Ian Rennardson at brokerage Jefferies. more
The group will also boost its presence in the concept hotels, city break and winter sun markets over the next five years, while seeking better terms from hotel partners. "Plans to focus the product offer and hotel inventory is important as we believe Thomas Cook's past inability to sell the right product through the most efficient channel to the right customer at the right price has harmed profitability," said analyst Ian Rennardson at brokerage Jefferies. Thomas Cook last month reported reduced first quarter operating losses and said recent trade had been robust with summer bookings going well. The company has lately been boosted by a rise in all inclusive holiday bookings as cash strapped Europeans opt for risk free deals in a volatile economic climate

Added more on the pullback at 111.9p