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Retail Decisions - The only decision you need to make is when to buy! (RTD)     

overgrowth - 13 May 2005 16:36

Retail Decisions are market leaders in an industry which continues to grow exponentially. They produce payment fraud systems solutions for major blue chip clients globally, though the bulk of the business is currently coming from the major reatilers both in the UK and US. They are a Techmark 100 company which means that there will always be a level of institutional interest in the company. However, on top of this "forced" interest from the tracker funds there has throughout 2005 been sustained large buying from no other than Goldman Sachs and Barclays. These institutions together now have an investment of tens of millions of shares in RTD !

Shares Magazine had a cover feature back in early April entitled "ATOMIC! - Small is about to get VERY, VERY BIG - 7 stocks for the new technology revolution". It was no surprise to see Retail Decisions as part of the selection.

Here's what Shares had to say: "Retail Decisions is a specialist software developer aimed at preventing credit card fraud. It owns a database of several million dodgy credit and debit card numbers against which it crosschecks transactions, but also has developed clever software which can spot strange patterns in your spending. This system is perfect for stopping phony credit card transactions. Investors could not ask for a better pure play on rising credit card crime. Perhaps the company's biggest challenge is scale but chief exec Carl Clump is attempting to address this with aquisitions, even if opportunities seem to be few and far between. In the meantime, Retail Decisions remains concentrated on developing in the card-not-present arena, where it already has fantastic experience and technology. The drive to win new customers should also be helped by the fact that it already serves so many blue-chip customers including Marks & Spencer, T-Mobile and, most recently, Federated Department Stores, the US owner of Macy's and Bloomingdales. Let's not forget, too, the company's highly profitable fuel-card business in Australia which grew 30% last year, making this year's forecast low single-digit earnings growth look on the conservative side."

Retail Decisions have continued throughout 2005 to rake in very healthy profits from the Oz. fuel card business thanks to the "bonus" of high oil prices and favourable exchange rates. In addition, the extra revenue streams from new major US corporate clients will be starting to filter through. In the US, Retail Decisions appear to be chosen on many occasions over their main rival Cybersource which indicates just how well this company is doing. The demand for card-not-present (i.e. internet/phone shopping) fraud software is going to continue to grow and grow so RTD presents guaranteed success in this arena - backed up with the cash cow fuel card business which is being extended into locations other than Australia and we have a real gem of a company. Longer term target 1+.

Chart.aspx?Provider=Intra&Code=RTD&Size=Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=RTD&Si

Douggie - 20 Feb 2006 09:33 - 669 of 1009

morning All :o)

pachandl - 20 Feb 2006 11:28 - 670 of 1009

Certainly no mourning today but will it keep the gains? With T10s being opened in the run up to the results (plus today's "artificial" spurt caused by Midas tip) there is a possibility that the price might react quite badly at the end of next week unless the results are really good. Anyway, here's hoping for an accelerated uptrend.

Douggie - 21 Feb 2006 10:25 - 671 of 1009

......... RED .......!!!!!..???????????????..;-[

Fred1new - 21 Feb 2006 10:44 - 672 of 1009

Patience Douggie, patience. wait until 3/3/2006. Many are looking and waiting for results.

TO ME, all the TA looks favourable and promising at the moment.

optomistic - 21 Feb 2006 10:57 - 673 of 1009

It does Fred, it's the share price that is not conforming :-)

Douggie - 22 Feb 2006 09:50 - 674 of 1009

.. :o[ ..... I'm not happy !

pachandl - 22 Feb 2006 12:18 - 675 of 1009

Pull yourself together Douggie and have a stiff brandy (it's after 12.00) - you will soon start smiling.

Fred1new - 22 Feb 2006 16:49 - 676 of 1009

I think it is time to be serious about sacrificing Douggie to the Share God.

I think a vote would be appropriate. All those in favour say Aye.



Patience is needed, but how much more.

pachandl - 22 Feb 2006 17:00 - 677 of 1009

I think that in the light of Douggie's current silence it would seem he has already sacrified himself to the Brandy God. Redemption is now impossible.

Douggie - 22 Feb 2006 17:06 - 678 of 1009

Aye

Douggie - 23 Feb 2006 17:13 - 679 of 1009

...............!

Douggie - 24 Feb 2006 19:11 - 680 of 1009

Great week wasn't it ............... :-[[[

Fred1new - 25 Feb 2006 00:09 - 681 of 1009

Douggie, Soon you will think that the 28/2/06 is your birthday all over again!

pachandl - 26 Feb 2006 12:21 - 682 of 1009

I think that the pull-back after the Midas tip clearly shows that investors are still uncertain whether "trading above expectations" simply means "in line with increased market cap" or whether it reflects increased cost-savings from synergies of merger. Forward-looking statements next Friday as regards the remainder of the year (esp assimilation of recent acquisitions) will be key to any future sp growth.

m12rtn - 26 Feb 2006 17:48 - 683 of 1009

They never said "trading above expectations" look for yorrself at the statement they made.

boxerdog - 26 Feb 2006 18:44 - 684 of 1009

m12rtn , is the point your making that what was said was, "trading above expectations for final quarter"?.
BD.

Douggie - 28 Feb 2006 10:25 - 685 of 1009

Mournin ALL here we go again ;o\

pachandl - 28 Feb 2006 13:31 - 686 of 1009

m12rtn - apologies if I mislead anyone by using the quotation marks. My point, however, remains valid. No-one yet knos how far above current expectations the level profit will be, to what extent this is owing to cost synergies or increased sales, and what the management expectations are for the remainder of the year. Until these things are clarified on Friday the sp will stay within a narrow range.

pachandl - 01 Mar 2006 12:11 - 687 of 1009

Almost surreal. It would appear that the MMs are happily keeping the price down in anticipation of the results (which hopefully means that if the results are good the sp might actually move north) rather than pushing the price up in anticipation of results and then cutting the floor from beneath new(er) holders. Perhaps this might suggest a more consolidated upward thrust over the next 6 months?

Fundamentalist - 01 Mar 2006 12:40 - 688 of 1009

Not convinced that this is "being kept down". I think a lot of people are wary with regard to buying ahead of results due to what has happened the last 2 years and there appears to be as many sellers as there are buyers.

Ultimately till we read the results on friday we dont know where this is going to go
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