ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

did anyone else have a sxxx day today? ASC,CYH,PXC,YOO,SPS,CFP,CYC I think i cornered the lot.I would say things can only get better but experience tells me that they dont have to at all. Still heres hoping

Met a young lady visiting my wife yesterday who is the first person I know who has purchased clothes for ASOS and she said all her friends at university puchase from ASOS as the quality is good and affordable whereas the high street is pricy and sometimes shoddy, her words, So i was delighted and gave her a cup of tea!!!!!!!

SD

SEADOG: Excellent news...but you only gave her a cup of tea!! Surely something a little stronger would have been in order?

I must say this continuing stream of good news about AOS only serves to support the good things we have said about the company.

Someone I know very well was at a fashion show in London last night and there was apparently a lot of talk about how well ASOS is doing. I am sure we will soon be reading the good news in their trading statement later this month. Yes I know that's another BUY statement, but this good news story has some way to run yet.


John

For those of you following the SP today the Pivot point on my s/w is 83p, with R1 at 86.7 and S1 at 79.1 - John

John

Need you to explain Pivot Point, R1 and S1 for the uninitiated, please. Sorry to show my ignorance and reveal the fact that I haven't done my homework as promised.

As you know, I love numnbers. Initial selling has taken the price down but at low volume. Buys, including two substantial ones of 60K and 30K have balanced buys and sells. So momentum is now with the buyers and price is likely to rise. Good time to buy. The volumes are down from the last few days: however, if even sporadic buying persists, MMs will move price up to attract sellers back in. That suggests a rising price with possibly a subsequent fall before the close. I am just spelling this out to see if actual outcome matches the prediction. It will be interesting to see how that logic compares with the chartist view.

blue index should have my account set up by Monday. However, they confirm that, as they are not brokers, you do have to transfer the money in. In other words, sell first and be out of the market for two or three days before you can deal the CFDs. Oh well, nothing ventured ...!

Eric

Eric:

Traders use s/w to calculate the likely movement of a share based on the previous days Open, High, Low and Close. Without going into too much more detail on the derivation just accept that the figures are a guide to the MM's and day traders on how much the SP is likely to move in any direction on the day. So the Pivot Point is the neutral position, followed by levels of upper resistance, namely R1 and R2, and similarly support levels of S1 and S2.

I hope this description helps.

It is always a nasty and unpleasant surprise to find out how long it takes our friendly High Street Banks to move money about. I recently had an experience where a money transfer disappeared for two weeks, admittedly it was to the US but still what do they do with it during this time...make lots of money on their own account thats what. Disgraceful practice. Perhaps you could do some deal with them over a short term loan though and make sure you are not out of the market while you move funds around...still I am sure you have thought of that and discounted it...I can understand why! Still I am sure you will be very happy with Blue Index once you are set up and making lots of lovely money.

John

John

Thanks for that. The resistance points are obviously based on recent volumes which are down today. Thus, the movements are likely to be less accentuated. It would be good to quote the figures for Monday when available so we can test the system out with ASOS. Also, what are R2 and S2 and how does the second level differ from the first.

Also disillusioned with banking system. Am just switching to First Direct based on my son's successful experience with them. One of the advantages is their preparedness to post short term revisions to overdraft levels. However, probably pushing my luck to try it on until the account has a history. Timing is really dependent on taking a view on price movements - even with ASC there are periods of price correction. Looking at the chart for the last month, 3 weeks out of 4, it would be OK, at least, to sell on Tuesday and buy back on Friday. Seems some logic in that, as early week buying, based on positive weekend comment, is followed by a period of profit-taking. OK so long as you are not hit by positive news in the meantime. Does that tie in with your reading of the tea-leaves, sorry, charts?

Eric

Asc had a full page write up in my local paper last night--all free publicity! Also I notice they are advertising on the Yahoo site. I have high expectations of their update.

Eric: From the books!

Pivot Point - The Definition

In any market, there is an equilibrium point around which trading activity occurs. In the absence of large numbers of new buyers or sellers, this point acts as the pivot or focal point for floor traders on markets where they still have them, as well as the rest of us!

When prices move away from the pivot, there are zones of support and resistance that can be derived from the established value area in the market. Penetration of these zones leads to perceived changes in valuation and the entry of new players into the market.

Derivation

The pivot point and its support and resistance pairs are defined as follows:

Pivot point (P) = (H + L + C) / 3 First resistance level (R1) = (2 * P) - L First support level (S1) = (2 * P) H Second resistance level (R2) = P + (R1 - S1) Second support level (S2) = P - (R1 - S1)

where H, L, C are the previous day's high, low and close, respectively.

It is often the case that in the absence of significant price moving news trading for the day will usually remain between the first support and resistance levels. However, one often sees situations where there is a bias from the open. For instance, we will see activity between the pivot and first resistance on a bullish day and the pivot and first support on the start to a down day.

You can of course plug the data into these formulae and work out these levels for yourself use Excel or buy some s/w that does it for you...my choice. Of course the determination of values to plg into the equation often leads to variations in the figures. For instnce the 'Official Closing Price' is often different to the mid point in the last minutes of actual trading. (Please don't ask why this is, but take it from me it is unlikely to change.)

I am expecting a fallback in the ASC SP towards the 50 day m.a. at some point, and there will lie the next wonderful buying opportunity! I do not follow the detailed pattern of buying and selling that you do. I am interested in total volumes for the day to indicate if one or the other has been exhausted etc. But daily patterns can mean all sorts of things and I do not spend too much time on it unless I am timing a market action.

Hope this helps.

John

Eric

I plotted some figures from my Superchart programme and as you see from the following table, after expenses, I dont think it would be worth it, unless you buy very large amounts. Selling high Buying Low

date O H L C V
Tue 5/10/04 sell 59.5 59.5 58.0 58.5 392967
Fri 8/10/04 Buy 59.5 59.5 58.0 58.5 168156 1.5 Gain
Tue 12/10/04 sell 61.5 62.0 60.5 60.5 313775
Fri 15/10/04 Buy 60.75 60.75 59.0 60.0 417494 3.0 Gain
Tue 19/10/04 sell 63.75 67.5 63.25 67.5 1085605
Fri 22/10/04 Buy 68.0 68.5 68.0 68.5 327878 0.5 Gain
Tue 26/10/04 sell 66.25 71.0 66.25 69.0 735856
Fri 29/10/04 Buy 76.0 76.0 73.5 74.5 499907 2.5 Gain

You can apply all kinds of permutations to the table but it wiil be interesting to see in the run up to christmas and the results in Nov to see if the theory holds good

SD

On my screen I set the table up correctly sorry its been cocked up!!

The last two Gains should be losses sorry

John

Thanks for taking all the trouble. It does make sense and, in fact, does tie up with what you do intuitively. Just looking at rough figures, for instance, ASC closing price yesterday would be round about S1, relating to Wednesday's close of 86p. Possibly not quite sufficiently down to bring new buyers in. Movements today have been small which may just mean that the MMs are taking a breather and not pulling the market around. It is only worth looking at detailed intra-day patterns if you are trying to time a buy or sell; otherwise there is a danger that you panic and buy too high or sell too low.

I like your point about dipping to the 50MA at some point. It has done this 4 times in the last 5 months. Presently its about 65p but itself, of course, rising. The 50MA presumably is not going to reach 80p until end-Novemebr at the earliest. I think the qualification should be that very positive newsflow, as recently, is going to continue to bring new buyers in and deter exisitng holders from profit-taking. The seasonal aspect of the share could mean that any reaction will be delayed until after the New Year, people then looking to release money to go elsewhere looking fro the share of 2005.

SEADOG

Thanks for the figures. I was certainly not thinking of trading in and out to make a turn. The purpose was the potential three days delay between selling, withdrawing to the bank account before debiting into blue index and reinvesting under a CFD. Your figures seem to confirm that, based on the last five weeks (including this week), good timing would be to sell on Tuesday and buy the CFD on Friday. I'll report whether it has been triumph or tragedy! I might end up getting cold feet!

Must have supper and then do the ASC Challenge - enjoy doing that; its a good discipline.

Eric

Eric: I generally agree with your thoughts re ASC. After the recent few UP days in the market we can expect some pullback...so you may be OK to undertake your transactions over the next few days. I do not think the SP will fall all the way back to the 50 day m.a., but as you say it is rising...so we could aim at 70p or thereabouts depending on timing. It is a also a good sign for a share to fall back and consolidate before the next LEAP UP! But then again that is only a guess.

Have a good weekend. John

ASOS CHALLENGE PORTFOLIO

Weekly update with comparison against smallcap index.

EPIC price,p shares__ shares price_ value_ cap.(m) gain/_ gain on
____ buy____ in issue_______ 5-Nov_ 5-Nov_________ loss % week %
ASC___ 56____ 67.97__ 8900__ 81.50_ 7253.5 55.40__ 45.54_ 9.40
BNH___ 77.5__ 15.065_ 6450__ 100.50 6482.3 15.14__ 29.68_ 25.63
CCN___ 16.25_ 41.883_ 30700_ 20.75_ 6370.3 8.69___ 27.69_ -3.49
YOO___ 22____ 125.538 22700_ 25.50_ 5788.5 32.01__ 15.91_ -5.56
PCI___ 15____ 484.975 33300_ 16.50_ 5494.5 80.02__ 10.00_ -4.35
SEY___ 17.25_ 822.712 29000_ 17.75_ 5147.5 146.03_ 2.90__ -6.58
MPH___ 33.75_ 120.455 14800_ 34.00_ 5032.0 40.95__ 0.74__ -1.45
SEO___ 4.5___ 78.225_ 111000 4.13__ 4578.8 3.23___ -8.33_ -8.33
CYH___ 1.82__ 988.952 275000 1.60__ 4400.0 15.82__ -12.09 1.91
PET___ 124.5_ 58.625_ 4000__ 107.50 4300.0 63.02__ -13.65 2.87
CFP___ 0.7___ 619____ 714000 0.55__ 3927.0 3.40___ -21.43 -11.29

Totals_____________________________ 58774.3_______ 6.86__ -0.04
smallcap index_____________ 2625.00 55603.7_______ 1.10__ 0.92

Overall, pretty well even stevens, which means a slide against the smallcap index. Reason is that seven out of 11 shares receded during the week, primarily because of lack of newsflow.

ASC, whilst back from their peak price on Wednesday, are showing a clean pair of heals to their challengers. Interims due on 29th November, with growing volume of buyers based on positive publicity. Plenty of room for further rises through interims to Xmas and beyond. Good opportunity to top up at present prices.

BNH has picked up the pursuit, again ahead of interims on 30th November. Substantial price movement on very low volumes. Worth evaluating, utilising very helpful bb.

CCN and YOO have come back a bit with no significant news. Enthusiastic posters see both as having a lot of potential. mactavish on YOO bb gives a lot of insight into development of digital tv market and YOO's leadership role; timing is the key question.

Of the oils, SEY have receded with a funding overhang and negative results from a particular Mauretania drill. PCI are awaiting the results of a drill, though the evidence of SEY spells caution. PET remain the big play. Do look at the BB where Tokyo and dexter continue to give informative posts. Iraqi oil ministry are committed to awarding two contracts in November with PET in pole position(?): success would mean mega-bucks. Fascinating dialogue with Jeremy Lacey, Shares editor, on the BB.

Lack of news has held back the other holdings, except for MPH who report a super contract in Korea and report on 9th November - difficult to see why the price has not progressed. SEO are plagued by the legal case with Bioprogress and are unlikely to make progress until it is resolved. CYH are essentially held back, despite a generally good news flow, because they have changed their accounting practise by delay in taking credit for contracts sold, which will heavily impact the current year - maybe we need to be looking to next year before the share achieves its proper levels. With CFP, it really is out of sight, out of mind - it is probably one of the best bargains in the market but there is no indication that it will move ahead until the new year.

Looking over these shares, it really is a fascinating scenario. Its almost better to take a one year view - as so often, it is just the timing of acquisition which is effecting the performance after one month.

EW
excellent post and now I know how to do a proper table columnwise.

EWR, like what you see with BNH??? Plenty more to come ;-)

Will be interesting to see how MPH do on Tuesday when they report.

Well done for all those still in asc.

Have been looking at BVM, look good to me. Not bought many approx 30k.

E W Robson, great post! Many thanks for your weekly updates, if youre not careful you might get head hunted and land a job as a columnist. Lol
Will be interesting to see what Tuesday brings for MPH. Keep up the good work

Many thanks EW for a great summary. Have we not forgotten SPS along the way somewhere who are also flying.I am getting guilty of going with the flow on this thread and a couple i have bought on the strength of "the teams" comments which I would have normally have researched and monitored more. I think the peoaple that post here are a good mix of extremely knowledgeable, experienced ,analytical investors mixed with the intuitive, entusiastic ,"go for it" investors. Both add value and I hope we all prosper.

Thanks for the thanks! Being a sucker for punishment, have started another challenge on justmoney's 150 to Invest site. What would you do with that to invest against the criteria given? Particularly good if johngtudor would play with a chartist portfolio!

Eric