Trading statement today - not good and shares have halved - just starting a thread in case anyone is interested in looking for the dcb ....

Currently 19p to buy - not thinking of buying at this time but just started tracking



ains


last bought 25/02 @ 12.5 last sold 26/02 for 10% gain

I think it has further falls over next week and could be a buy at 14/15p......will have to take a good look at these over the weekend before I decide..

yes .... there is no rush

(AFR) 14/02/03 18:21: Invensys PLC - Director Shareholding
Invensys PLC - Director Shareholding
RNS Number:5485H
Invensys PLC
14 February 2003

SCHEDULE 11

NOTIFICATION OF INTERESTS OF DIRECTORS AND CONNECTED PERSONS

1. Name of company
Invensys plc

2. Name of director
Mr Rolf Borjesson

3. Please state whether notification indicates that it is in respect of holding
of the shareholder named in 2 above or in respect of a non-beneficial interest
or in the case of an individual holder if it is a holding of that person's
spouse or children under the age of 18 or in respect of a non-beneficial
interest
Director

4. Name of the registered holder(s) and, if more than one holder, the number of
shares held by each of them (if notified)
Roy Nominees Limited

5. Please state whether notification relates to a person(s) connected with the
director named in 2 above and identify the connected person(s)
No

6. Please state the nature of the transaction. For PEP transactions please
indicate whether general/single co PEP and if discretionary/non discretionary
Acquisition of shares

7. Number of shares / amount of stock acquired
100,000

8. Percentage of issued class
0.002857%

9. Number of shares/amount of stock disposed




10. Percentage of issued class




11. Class of security
Ordinary shares of 25p each

12. Price per share
19p

13. Date of transaction
14 February 2003

14. Date company informed
14 February 2003

15. Total holding following this notification
116,571

16. Total percentage holding of issued class following this notification
0.003331%

If a director has been granted options by the company please complete the
following boxes.

17. Date of grant

18. Period during which or date on which exercisable

19. Total amount paid (if any) for grant of the option

20. Description of shares or debentures involved: class, number

21. Exercise price (if fixed at time of grant) or indication that price is to be
fixed at time of exercise

22. Total number of shares or debentures over which options held following this
notification

23. Any additional information

24. Name of contact and telephone number for queries
Victoria Scarth, Senior Vice President, Group Marketing and Communications 020 78213538



25. Name and signature of authorised company official responsible for making
this notification
Emma Sullivan, Assistant Secretary

Date of Notification
14 February 2003

The FSA does not give any express or implied warranty as to the accuracy of this
document or material and does not accept any liability for error or omission.
The FSA is not liable for any damages (including, without limitation, damages
for loss of business or loss of profits) arising in contract, tort or otherwise
from the use of or inability to use this document, or any material contained in
it, or from any action or decision taken as a result of using this document or
any such material.

see times for rest of article

February 15, 2003

FSA steps in as alert prompts Invensys share fall
By Russell Hotten



THE City regulator is investigating the circumstances leading up to yesterdays surprise profit warning from Invensys, which saw shares in the engineering group halve.
Invensys had denied for more than a week that it planned to publish bad news. But yesterday the company announced a cut in profit forecasts and a writedown on its troubled Baan division. The shares collapsed amid concern that the companys restructuring had ground to a halt.

The Financial Services Authority (FSA) said it had not asked Invensys to release the statement, which came after the share price had already fallen for several days.

However, the regulator is thought to be looking at the circumstances leading to the announcement, which said that second-half core operating profits could be 25 per cent down on the 143 million reported last year.

many papers talking of a break-up or take-over so it will be interesting to see what happens next week..the current management are certainly no better than the last lot in my opinion.

Reminds me of CW. and SGC . Well next week will tell which way the cookie will crumble.

Yes ..... all the magick ingreients for a fast moving trading share - FSA investigation - talk of break up for extracting value - oversold by institutions as punishment for 'unexpected PW' ...... I will be looking to trade intraday on Monday

ains

I see the Telegraph are patting themselves on the back



Invensys

Last week we advised readers to sell Invensys when the shares stood at 42.75p. We feared there was "bad news in the pipeline" and warned that the troubled engineering firm was not out of the woods. Little did we realise how bad things were.

On Friday Rick Haythornthwaite, the chief executive, wiped more than 600m off the share price with a profits warning. Shares in Invensys have fallen 53 per cent since we advised readers to sell seven days ago. We remain cautious.





S Times

February 16, 2003

Troubled Invensys may break itself up
Nils Pratley



THE chief executive of Invensys, Rick Haythornthwaite, who saw the companys share price almost halve with last weeks profit warning, has pledged to consider a break-up of the company if his restructuring plan fails to hit its targets.
Haythornthwaite said he is still confident he can achieve his challenging ambition for improving margins, and that the company should not start hopping around just nine months into the strategy, but he added: If we miss those (targets), then clearly we will asking ourselves as to why.

If the answer is that the best solution for shareholders is a break-up then I wont be afraid to pursue it.

The deadline for assessing the margin targets 8%-10% for the production management division and 10%-12% for energy management will fall at the end of the next financial year.

It may not save Invensyss debt from being downgraded to junk status by the rating agency S&P. Moodys already has it on such a rating and S&P said late on Friday that it was considering similar action.

Yep Ains think your on the right track.Hope for a nice bounce Monday.

top of the FTSE100 risers this morning with 2nd largest volume



ains

Ains are you in yet?

I have been in and out ...... waiting now for re-entry ..... little news today which is irritating and US closed. NAS futures up 2 from +6 earlier this morning

Intraday graph looks like it's heading southwards at this timewithin a trading range 20/22p :-((



ains


from the Mail

Not so easy


I CANNOT understand why the City was so surprised at Friday's profit warning from Invensys. Fund managers* have surely read about the collapse in the rate of growth round the world. They must be aware of the squeeze on corporate profitability and the stagnation of industrial investment in the major markets. Companies on the rack include Invensys's core customers and it should not be beyond the wit of the City's excessively highly-paid fund managers to realise that if customers are strapped for cash and not buying its products, Invensys's sales will disappoint and it will have difficulty hitting its targets.


The fund management industry's knee-jerk reaction to poor performance from someone who is not a fund manager is to demand that they be replaced. But this often makes a bad situation worse, for whoever comes in will not understand the business, feel under pressure to appear decisive and therefore do the quick and easy thing - cut, close and sell off anything with temporarily depressed numbers. Typically, disposals are carried out with excessive speed and are often unnecessary. But Britain's financial sector is so much stronger than its commercial and manufacturing sectors that it calls the shots, however stupid.


Management, and particularly managing a turnaround in a troubled economic climate, requires patience, persistence, skill and understanding. Successful portfolio investment in these times requires similar skills. If fund managers would realise there are no easy answers or quick solutions to their own problems they might have more understanding of how to approach and handle other people.

17 Feb 2003 10:11 GMT

Invensys bounces on value, break up hopes

LONDON, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Shares in British engineering firm Invensys Plc came back to life on Monday as investors saw value after a Friday profit warning sparked a 46 percent stock slide and raised talk the company might be broken up.
Invensys, one of the world's largest makers of industrial controls and automation equipment, was up 3.75 percent at 21-3/4 pence around 1000 GMT as investors saw an attractive price to earnings ratio and value in individual divisions, should they be sold off.

"It's a little bit of a technical bounce, and there's still some talk of a break up," said SG Securties analyst Zafar Khan.

Faced with steadily declining sales and profits, the company has cut jobs and costs and has reorganised from four divisions into two major divisions. It is divesting non-core businesses.

Some analysts believe its core production management and energy management divisions could now be worth more on their own than the company as a whole.

Invensys on Friday warned core operating profit could fall 25 percent from the first half but kept a target to raise operating margins by March 2004 in production and energy management.

Goldman Sachs on Monday slashed its earnings per share estimates for the company after the profit warning, but kept its "outperform" rating on the stock on grounds Invensys had already discounted a lot of bad news.

seems to be a tighter trading range than I thought - volumes are useful at 30 million but not exceptional under the circumstances


ains

WESTLB CUTS INVENSYS

Investment bank WestLB Panmure has cut its rating on engineer Invensys ISYS.L to "underperform" from "neutral" after the company said it expected a 25 percent fall in second-half core operating profit compared with first half results.

WestLB said the fall was "significant" and saw possible market weakness offsetting Invensys' restructuring targets.

Just featured on CNBC - nothing new - poor management + bad news factored in at this time

Still within the tight trading range



ains

afx at 1545

Break-up hopes aided a bounce for Invensys, up a penny to 21 following Friday's plunge of 45 pct after the engineer's much more severe than expected full year profits alert. Goldman Sachs was repeating 'outperform' advice on the stock, saying much of the bad news looks to be in the price already.

Currently tracking .....


In a note published today, JP Morgan maintained its 'neutral' recommendation, although it cut its forecasts, arguing that it remains surprised at the magnitude of the company's warning. The broker pointed out that it has cut its pre-goodwill EPS estimates by 28% in full year 2003 to 2.6 pence, by 69% in full year 2004 to 1.3 pence and by 51% to 3.1 pence in full year 2006, adding that it is also expecting a 250m goodwill write-down for Baan.

JP Morgan also noted that it is particularly disappointed by the continued problems in Climate Controls, noting that strong profitability and cash flow generation from this business had been a key element of its investment thesis. The broker went on to say that it does not expect an imminent liquidity problem but sees covenants becoming tight again at the end of 2004, although it added that it would not be surprised to see further asset disposals to refinance debt maturing in the summer 2004.

JP Morgan said it sees opportunity for the stock to bounce from its lows, but finds it hard to make a convincing value case, as its valuation is critically dependant on the pension deficit. The broker calculates a current fair value of 18 pence and upside to 35 pence based on full year 2005 estimates, although in the short term a drop out of the FTSE 100 in March could create downside risk for the shares.

currently at 19p so Morgans were right about ISYS .. think it will fall another 10% from here and might be worth a punt.

watching but no rush ..... tracking intraday with sophisticated alerts ..... made a few the other day but needs newsflow - 3rd most traded still - in top 100 ftse



ains