ASOS have dropped quite significantly in the past week for no particular reason and I view this as the perfect opportunity to invest as I can see them bouncing right back up to the 5.50p mark in the next 2-3 weeks. STRONG BUY!!

John

Thanks for that. The resistance points are obviously based on recent volumes which are down today. Thus, the movements are likely to be less accentuated. It would be good to quote the figures for Monday when available so we can test the system out with ASOS. Also, what are R2 and S2 and how does the second level differ from the first.

Also disillusioned with banking system. Am just switching to First Direct based on my son's successful experience with them. One of the advantages is their preparedness to post short term revisions to overdraft levels. However, probably pushing my luck to try it on until the account has a history. Timing is really dependent on taking a view on price movements - even with ASC there are periods of price correction. Looking at the chart for the last month, 3 weeks out of 4, it would be OK, at least, to sell on Tuesday and buy back on Friday. Seems some logic in that, as early week buying, based on positive weekend comment, is followed by a period of profit-taking. OK so long as you are not hit by positive news in the meantime. Does that tie in with your reading of the tea-leaves, sorry, charts?

Eric

Asc had a full page write up in my local paper last night--all free publicity! Also I notice they are advertising on the Yahoo site. I have high expectations of their update.

Eric: From the books!

Pivot Point - The Definition

In any market, there is an equilibrium point around which trading activity occurs. In the absence of large numbers of new buyers or sellers, this point acts as the pivot or focal point for floor traders on markets where they still have them, as well as the rest of us!

When prices move away from the pivot, there are zones of support and resistance that can be derived from the established value area in the market. Penetration of these zones leads to perceived changes in valuation and the entry of new players into the market.

Derivation

The pivot point and its support and resistance pairs are defined as follows:

Pivot point (P) = (H + L + C) / 3 First resistance level (R1) = (2 * P) - L First support level (S1) = (2 * P) H Second resistance level (R2) = P + (R1 - S1) Second support level (S2) = P - (R1 - S1)

where H, L, C are the previous day's high, low and close, respectively.

It is often the case that in the absence of significant price moving news trading for the day will usually remain between the first support and resistance levels. However, one often sees situations where there is a bias from the open. For instance, we will see activity between the pivot and first resistance on a bullish day and the pivot and first support on the start to a down day.

You can of course plug the data into these formulae and work out these levels for yourself use Excel or buy some s/w that does it for you...my choice. Of course the determination of values to plg into the equation often leads to variations in the figures. For instnce the 'Official Closing Price' is often different to the mid point in the last minutes of actual trading. (Please don't ask why this is, but take it from me it is unlikely to change.)

I am expecting a fallback in the ASC SP towards the 50 day m.a. at some point, and there will lie the next wonderful buying opportunity! I do not follow the detailed pattern of buying and selling that you do. I am interested in total volumes for the day to indicate if one or the other has been exhausted etc. But daily patterns can mean all sorts of things and I do not spend too much time on it unless I am timing a market action.

Hope this helps.

John

Eric

I plotted some figures from my Superchart programme and as you see from the following table, after expenses, I dont think it would be worth it, unless you buy very large amounts. Selling high Buying Low

date O H L C V
Tue 5/10/04 sell 59.5 59.5 58.0 58.5 392967
Fri 8/10/04 Buy 59.5 59.5 58.0 58.5 168156 1.5 Gain
Tue 12/10/04 sell 61.5 62.0 60.5 60.5 313775
Fri 15/10/04 Buy 60.75 60.75 59.0 60.0 417494 3.0 Gain
Tue 19/10/04 sell 63.75 67.5 63.25 67.5 1085605
Fri 22/10/04 Buy 68.0 68.5 68.0 68.5 327878 0.5 Gain
Tue 26/10/04 sell 66.25 71.0 66.25 69.0 735856
Fri 29/10/04 Buy 76.0 76.0 73.5 74.5 499907 2.5 Gain

You can apply all kinds of permutations to the table but it wiil be interesting to see in the run up to christmas and the results in Nov to see if the theory holds good

SD

On my screen I set the table up correctly sorry its been cocked up!!

The last two Gains should be losses sorry

John

Thanks for taking all the trouble. It does make sense and, in fact, does tie up with what you do intuitively. Just looking at rough figures, for instance, ASC closing price yesterday would be round about S1, relating to Wednesday's close of 86p. Possibly not quite sufficiently down to bring new buyers in. Movements today have been small which may just mean that the MMs are taking a breather and not pulling the market around. It is only worth looking at detailed intra-day patterns if you are trying to time a buy or sell; otherwise there is a danger that you panic and buy too high or sell too low.

I like your point about dipping to the 50MA at some point. It has done this 4 times in the last 5 months. Presently its about 65p but itself, of course, rising. The 50MA presumably is not going to reach 80p until end-Novemebr at the earliest. I think the qualification should be that very positive newsflow, as recently, is going to continue to bring new buyers in and deter exisitng holders from profit-taking. The seasonal aspect of the share could mean that any reaction will be delayed until after the New Year, people then looking to release money to go elsewhere looking fro the share of 2005.

SEADOG

Thanks for the figures. I was certainly not thinking of trading in and out to make a turn. The purpose was the potential three days delay between selling, withdrawing to the bank account before debiting into blue index and reinvesting under a CFD. Your figures seem to confirm that, based on the last five weeks (including this week), good timing would be to sell on Tuesday and buy the CFD on Friday. I'll report whether it has been triumph or tragedy! I might end up getting cold feet!

Must have supper and then do the ASC Challenge - enjoy doing that; its a good discipline.

Eric

Eric: I generally agree with your thoughts re ASC. After the recent few UP days in the market we can expect some pullback...so you may be OK to undertake your transactions over the next few days. I do not think the SP will fall all the way back to the 50 day m.a., but as you say it is rising...so we could aim at 70p or thereabouts depending on timing. It is a also a good sign for a share to fall back and consolidate before the next LEAP UP! But then again that is only a guess.

Have a good weekend. John

ASOS CHALLENGE PORTFOLIO

Weekly update with comparison against smallcap index.

EPIC price,p shares__ shares price_ value_ cap.(m) gain/_ gain on
____ buy____ in issue_______ 5-Nov_ 5-Nov_________ loss % week %
ASC___ 56____ 67.97__ 8900__ 81.50_ 7253.5 55.40__ 45.54_ 9.40
BNH___ 77.5__ 15.065_ 6450__ 100.50 6482.3 15.14__ 29.68_ 25.63
CCN___ 16.25_ 41.883_ 30700_ 20.75_ 6370.3 8.69___ 27.69_ -3.49
YOO___ 22____ 125.538 22700_ 25.50_ 5788.5 32.01__ 15.91_ -5.56
PCI___ 15____ 484.975 33300_ 16.50_ 5494.5 80.02__ 10.00_ -4.35
SEY___ 17.25_ 822.712 29000_ 17.75_ 5147.5 146.03_ 2.90__ -6.58
MPH___ 33.75_ 120.455 14800_ 34.00_ 5032.0 40.95__ 0.74__ -1.45
SEO___ 4.5___ 78.225_ 111000 4.13__ 4578.8 3.23___ -8.33_ -8.33
CYH___ 1.82__ 988.952 275000 1.60__ 4400.0 15.82__ -12.09 1.91
PET___ 124.5_ 58.625_ 4000__ 107.50 4300.0 63.02__ -13.65 2.87
CFP___ 0.7___ 619____ 714000 0.55__ 3927.0 3.40___ -21.43 -11.29

Totals_____________________________ 58774.3_______ 6.86__ -0.04
smallcap index_____________ 2625.00 55603.7_______ 1.10__ 0.92

Overall, pretty well even stevens, which means a slide against the smallcap index. Reason is that seven out of 11 shares receded during the week, primarily because of lack of newsflow.

ASC, whilst back from their peak price on Wednesday, are showing a clean pair of heals to their challengers. Interims due on 29th November, with growing volume of buyers based on positive publicity. Plenty of room for further rises through interims to Xmas and beyond. Good opportunity to top up at present prices.

BNH has picked up the pursuit, again ahead of interims on 30th November. Substantial price movement on very low volumes. Worth evaluating, utilising very helpful bb.

CCN and YOO have come back a bit with no significant news. Enthusiastic posters see both as having a lot of potential. mactavish on YOO bb gives a lot of insight into development of digital tv market and YOO's leadership role; timing is the key question.

Of the oils, SEY have receded with a funding overhang and negative results from a particular Mauretania drill. PCI are awaiting the results of a drill, though the evidence of SEY spells caution. PET remain the big play. Do look at the BB where Tokyo and dexter continue to give informative posts. Iraqi oil ministry are committed to awarding two contracts in November with PET in pole position(?): success would mean mega-bucks. Fascinating dialogue with Jeremy Lacey, Shares editor, on the BB.

Lack of news has held back the other holdings, except for MPH who report a super contract in Korea and report on 9th November - difficult to see why the price has not progressed. SEO are plagued by the legal case with Bioprogress and are unlikely to make progress until it is resolved. CYH are essentially held back, despite a generally good news flow, because they have changed their accounting practise by delay in taking credit for contracts sold, which will heavily impact the current year - maybe we need to be looking to next year before the share achieves its proper levels. With CFP, it really is out of sight, out of mind - it is probably one of the best bargains in the market but there is no indication that it will move ahead until the new year.

Looking over these shares, it really is a fascinating scenario. Its almost better to take a one year view - as so often, it is just the timing of acquisition which is effecting the performance after one month.

EW
excellent post and now I know how to do a proper table columnwise.

EWR, like what you see with BNH??? Plenty more to come ;-)

Will be interesting to see how MPH do on Tuesday when they report.

Well done for all those still in asc.

Have been looking at BVM, look good to me. Not bought many approx 30k.

E W Robson, great post! Many thanks for your weekly updates, if youre not careful you might get head hunted and land a job as a columnist. Lol
Will be interesting to see what Tuesday brings for MPH. Keep up the good work

Many thanks EW for a great summary. Have we not forgotten SPS along the way somewhere who are also flying.I am getting guilty of going with the flow on this thread and a couple i have bought on the strength of "the teams" comments which I would have normally have researched and monitored more. I think the peoaple that post here are a good mix of extremely knowledgeable, experienced ,analytical investors mixed with the intuitive, entusiastic ,"go for it" investors. Both add value and I hope we all prosper.

Thanks for the thanks! Being a sucker for punishment, have started another challenge on justmoney's 150 to Invest site. What would you do with that to invest against the criteria given? Particularly good if johngtudor would play with a chartist portfolio!

Eric

ASOS a buy at 80.20p ! I never thought we would see a sub 80p buy price again but it looks possible. Its support level of 79 is being tested. Could be a great buying opportunity, but i bet it will not last long

willfagg

Have checked back and you started off with SPS then switched to SEY. Pity because you would have been up 35% or so. You weren't the only one to switch: Kivver switched from KMR, up 15%, to CYH. Seems to be a lesson there about sticking to the first insight! Still, no doubt you have both so it is academic really.

john

Interested in your point about coming back to the EMA50 graph which is currently at 66. As you say, a correction can be healthy (also gives a chance to move funds around for cfd investment!). My question is: why EMA50. EMA10 is at 78, so presumably there is a spectrum of EMAs between 10 and 50. There seem to be two other points to take into account: (i) the share is going through another period of re-rating rather like evolution when you are approaching a species change; (ii) the share is almost bound to bound ahead on the interim results on 29th Nov. So it seems likely that the correction will be over by the end of the week and it would seem unlikely that the price has come back below 75p. I suspect that corresponds to a EMA20, or something like it. So, why shouldn't it bounce off EMA20. Just being awkward, I think, or clever pants!

Eric

Eric: Re your point about the choice of different ma's. It is really up to you, but over time you will see that the 50 day is very popular and one that many SP's seem to use as a reference. In suggesting a pull back is due I was looking at the lower support line of the share and it's parallel resistance line on the chart. This suggests a top resistance line of about 90p and a resistance line down around 66p. If you then plug in the 50 day ma which ASC has bounced off a couple of times in it's wonderful march northwards, it seems to be a good reference. Now these things are always an estimate so I thought around 70p looks good and would, taken into account time, all suggest a point at which the SP will bounce from. I myself always use exponential ma.s rather than simple, and a finer ma of 20 as well as 200. Hope this helps, and of course as I suggested lsat week would give youa good chance to move your funds around!!

Please elucidate about the Invest site, with only 150 pounds to play with you are better off going with a spread bet! But then again I do not know what the terms and conditions of the game are. Forex looks good to me, you can place bets both ways in a contingent way, so that whatever way the market goes you make money, and close out the opposite bet!

John

Excellent interims from MPH. Price has risen a couple of p but you only need to look at the Marchpole site to see the excitement of the holders. Earnings of 1.4p per share in first half and a dividend to boot. Looks as though it will ramp up, so a BUY at current level. Good news also from SEY which has cleared its funding requirement for 41% of the equity which underpins the current price and allows the share to progress. Still waiting for the big one, PET: it had been rumoured that there would be an RNS today. We should all have a stake!

John

Sorry, that was "150K to invest"! 150 is to spend! Thanks for post. I'm an exponential man myself but haven't seen it on a graph - have you access to one for ASC? Freed up a few bob yesterday at 79.18p, primarily to pay the balance of fee for a condo at Whistler, Canada for Xmas and New Year - good way to use investing profits taking three daughters plus 1 hub. skiing. Will also dip the toes in the CFD waters with blue index: what happens to the toes if they turn out to be blue sharks?

Eric

Eric: You should go to the Chart section on MoneyAm...then overlays...click on MA window down arrow...you can choose from simple, exponential or weighted. Let me now if you still have difficultiesd.

Your Xmas festivities sound fine but watch the altitude! Can be intoxicating, and that is before you start the spirit consumption! As for Blue Index, if you only lose your toes you should still be able to walk....good luck. But if you are lucky then you could probably stay at Whistler for a month or more!!

Will check out your competition and get back to you. Have you looked at DES today...this could fly, the BB reading is very interesting...!

John

Good morning everyone...been away for a few days celebrating (or commiserating )hitting the big 40, so lots of pearls of wisdom to catch up on.Ghostsurf finally arrived this morning so I'll let you know how I get on with logging on to ASOS. By the way, didn't one of us say a while back that Amazon were recommending asos,or did I dream that, because nothing has arrived with my last two parcels...except for the delivery note.
Eric... Thanks again for sorting out our results chart. Nice to see I'm not last this week ....or not quite. Had been wishing for an RNS for my birthday,but I see PET are intent on making me wait a little longer...never mind there is always Christmas!