I have been a holder of this stock for the past 8 months and intent to hold for at least two years to gain the maximum CGT relief as its AIM listed.

I have topped up my holding recently as TPA looks well undervalued to me at the current price of 19.5p.

Reasons as follows:

2004 results (due in March) should show 85% growth on 2003 - EPS of 1.3p. This will give a historic PE of 15 at the current price.

Estimates for 2005 indicate a further 46% growth in earnings to 1.9p which could, IMO, be conservative considering the impact of the big contracts signed in 2004 are yet to fully kick in. The PE estimate is only 10.26 for 2005 - way too low IMO for a growth company.

2006 estimates are for 2.4p of EPS (PE 8.1) - this is why I am holding for at least 2 years - the shares should double to 40p if things stay on track and CGT will be only 5 or 10% with the taper relief.

The earnings have high visibility and should be rated as such - most contracts are signed for 3 or 5 years plus with a good chance of repeat business, contract extensions etc.

Strong cash generation paying off debt for aquisitions.

Contracts with big players such as Virgin, Matalan, BAA, BMI Healthcare and Dixons.

The technology division has the potential to significantly increase earnings which have not been considered in the earnings estimates.

TripleArc is now the 4th biggest print management provder in the UK and still growing - maybe takeover potential there.

Risks:

UK economy might go down hill adversely affecting TPA margins/contracts.
Shares are fairly illiquid and volatile.
Margins get squeezed.
Debt fairly high but being rapidly repaid.
Increased competition.

Overall I feel comfortable to hold a high percentage of my portfolio in this company - my two year timeframe should hopefully see the shares double in value baring unforseen disasters.

Website : http://www.triplearcplc.com/

Shareshark

Trading update at EGM Said in line. But cash position key

Said net debt 15m -- same as at interims --- this I think is v positive as must be some upfront costs expenditure into AOL and Betterware deals. Suggesting underyling business running cashflow positive --- this should improve further as AOL contract win works through early stage of program

AOL UK taken over by Carphone Warehouse but contract still seems fine plus if the co any good could impress CPW. Another contract would be nice which in a way capital restructuring is hinting at. But patience for results I think

CLearly cheap if cashflows can start paying off debt -- business growth needs only to be small scale but promises some larger developments

Shareshark started this thread with much expectation of increasing sp...(over 2005-6-7) and confident has followed a similar theme. . . . so it must come as a bit of a blow to see 20p-ish now nearly into the 90% club.
-What went wrong?
Any ideas? - and importantly what are the execs doing about it ? (other than sitting on their hands).
I understand only that this is a printing business and has/had some top-names as customers . . . . of course supplying print is vary competitive with digital imaging making it possible to have the printing done overseas with identical quality.
Is that what's befallen TripleArc?
I hold StIves [SIV](=another printer) which has gained some strength after a fall roughly similar time-scale, (although not so much, as they print Harry Potter!).

hangon

Basically hang on This v small co is over leveraged if operations really run this will turn positive. Can the co do this before interest rates rise to high difficult to say

But operationally in good shape plus recent director purchase adds to positive outlook as unlikely to buy if co about to go under. In my view co not priced as going concern but it is. New management from last year seem to be tackling problems -- debt held despite likely increase in working cap following AOL deal.

Think I've said all along this one will require patience plent y of institutions in with big losses wating to exit on any vol

Patience will be rewarded buy the dips -- upside to 12p+ --- downside 3p i.e to zero

If there was something fundamentally wrong with TPA they would have had to issue an RNS stating the problems. Since the drop no RNS has been issued. What has been seen was a large sell followed buy what looked to be a large buy.However the large sell dropped the price and worried PIs also sold dropping the price to where it is today.

After what looked like a 6M buy we can calculate that there was circa 2.5M plus any PI trades left over. The limit on Friday was 150K on the offer.Tonight it is down to 50K.

Was the drop purely down to a forced seller? Someone taking a tax loss before the year end?

I say again there is no news from the company to say that anything is fundamentally wrong.

Lowest ever price and no takers.

At last some good news from the company.

Well Altium have a BUY note out with 4p stamped on it. Some good buying yesterday and today the online buying has been limited to 15K.

Good risk/reward now.

This has been trending upwards recently off it's lows and results are expected this month. I wonder if some news has leaked out into the market?