Crest Nicholson has been building new homes for over four decades and is firmly established as a leading developer with a passion for not just building homes, but creating vibrant sustainable communities. Our mission is to improve the quality of life for individuals and communities, both now and in the future, by providing better homes, work places, retail and leisure spaces. Most importantly, we place our customers at the heart of everything we do.

Our development portfolio ranges from contemporary city centre apartments and townhouses to traditional detached family homes and complex regeneration schemes. The success of long term partnership developments such as Park Central in Birmingham, as well as innovative low carbon developments including One Brighton, ICON and Avante, underline the Group's determination to lead the industry in its quest to create innovative development solutions which positively contribute towards achieving a sustainable future.

In today's low carbon world, it is our unrivalled vision and values in design, customer service, innovation and environmental stewardship that set us apart. Responding to the challenges posed by climate change and urban renewal forms an integral part of our approach, positioning us well to lead in the complex and challenging process of delivering sustainable communities.

I am particularly proud of the recognition that we have achieved for our contribution to the built environment. To be bestowed with The Queens Award for Enterprise in Sustainable Development category in 2007 was a real honour. This 5 year accolade is proof of our continued commitment to producing high quality developments that champion the very best principles in sustainability and design. It demonstrates our unquestionable passion in delivering communities where people genuinely want to live, work and play.

Ultimately however, the greatest accolade comes directly from our purchasers and nine out of ten have said that they would be happy to recommend Crest Nicholson to a friend. While both the House Builders Federation and our own independent consultants verify that our customer satisfaction is improving year on year, we will not become complacent. Our priority is to continue to build on this track record and deliver our customers with a home and level of service that continues to surpass expectations.

http://www.crestnicholson.com/

20 May Beaufort... N/A Buy
20 May Barclays... 445.30 Overweight
20 May Deutsche Bank 402.00 Hold

IC - Crest Nicholson was a late guest at the UK housebuilders' party, having partially floated just over two years ago. But its progress since then has been little short of meteoric and a trading update suggests that there is plenty more to come.

Half year results

44 reasons-to-buy-barratt-developments-plc-crest-nicholson-holdings-plc-countrywide-plc-and-barclays-plc/

IC - It's hard to find fault with Crest Nicholson

(CRST) either, with its expanding dividend and substantial land bank with a gross development value of roughly £10bn, and we retain our buy rating

Upgrade - 8 Sep Goldman Sachs 790.00 Conviction Buy

crest-nicholson-is-goldman-s-top-pick-in-midst-of-housing-sector-s-results

Cazenove comment:
"We expect 2016 to be another year of improved profitability and strong operating conditions for the UK housebuilders. We see little risk either of either earnings downgrades, or of news flow that would meaningfully impact expectations for longer-term returns. While the sector is 38% up year to date, we still see an average 14% upside potential. At this stage we see most value in the small-caps. We upgrade Crest Nicholson to Overweight (20% upside) and downgrade Barratt Developments to Neutral (+9%) and Persimmon to Underweight (+3%), as a relative valuation call.
 We struggle to see the land market becoming tougher any time soon, meaning we expect margins and returns to remain strong: We continue to believe that the land market dynamics and strong demand environment driving current strong returns are likely to persist, meaning we believe the current average RoE of 20% is sustainable and has upside, despite the historical average being only 15%.
 We see the risk to short-term earnings as being weighted to the upside: Our estimates continue to be predicated on weaker housing market conditions than the lead indicators currently suggest.
 We see more value in the small cap stocks: We see an average of 8% upside to the FTSE 100s, vs. 20% for the small caps. While we continue to expect the large caps to drive stronger average returns, from what we view as lower-risk operating models, we still believe the small caps trade at an excessive discount (1.6x p/tNAV vs. 2.2x).
 We upgrade Crest Nicholson to Overweight and downgrade Barratt to Neutral and Persimmon to Underweight: We now see 20% upside potential to Crest vs. only 9% for Barratt and 3% for PSN. We expect Crest to continue to drive earnings growth and improvement in ROCE via what we view as a relatively low-risk, high-volume growth strategy. While our views on the outlook for both Barratt and PSN remain positive, we currently view both stocks as relatively fully valued.

Bought some at 335p

Fall looks overdone as with most House Builders

The oversold on the Indicators is very clear

15 june 2016 - Crest Nicholson upgraded by Beaufort

Beaufort Securities has upgraded its investment rating on house builder and property developer Crest Nicholson (LON:CRST) to buy from hold following yesterday's share price fall on its half-year numbers and stating that the stock "looks almost 'bargain basement' given a current year P/E of 8.4x, a P/NAV 1.83x and a full year yield 5.5%".

The broker added: "While the BREXIT vote is likely to keep volatility high for the next few days, Beaufort has nevertheless upgraded its recommendation on Crest Nicholson to Buy given that the upside scenario for the shares now quite significantly outweighs the downside."

Meanwhile, JP Morgan Cazenove, Goldman Sachs and HSBC reaffirmed overweight, conviction buy and buy recommendations, respectively, with HSBC upping its target to 830 pence per share from 800 pence.

HSBC commented: "With expectations that UK housebuilders would show sharp drop offs in forward sales/orders as the UK Referendum vote approaches, the strength of what is being reported is reassuring."
-----------------

Interim results 14 June 2016

Profit before tax
£72.6M - 58.3 - 25%

Profit after tax
£58.9M - 46.7 - 26%

Earnings per share (pence)
23.3p - 18.6p - 25%

Dividend
interim of 9.1 pence per share,
payable 6 October 2016 on the register on 23 September 2016

CRST has fallen the most since brexit, crashing 45% from its pre brexit price. In these circumstances it is hard to value on forward earnings as we do not know how likely the EPS forecasts past the length the order book stretches are likely to materialize given market uncertainty. In times of panic P/B sometimes becomes more appropriate.

Current price/book for the sector:

BVS 0.95
BDEV 1
TEF 1.07
RDW 1.09 (June 16 forecast)
BWY 1.2
GFRD 1.3
TW. 1.35
CRST 1.37
PSN 1.67

As we can see book values range from just under 1 to 1.67x.
Crest looks the cheapest builder on an earnings basis ( fcast 60p PE 5.5 ) but mid range on balance sheet strength.
Seems like the market is making a trade off between book value and the current probability of forward earnings.

By the look of the order book this time could spike and be on the up by lunch time instead of being down during the morning

The ladder of the Intraday chart ( higher highs and higher lows ) since 10am is pointing to eventually the share price will be on positive territory

Order book DEPTH 75 v 39
still very volatile

Is this going to help CRST?

London still rising high = CRST

House prices rise again to hit almost £205k, says Nationwide, but full force of Brexit result yet to be felt
Experts warn survey is the 'calm before the storm' once Brexit kicks in
Survey also reveals a 'nation divided' as North/South gap hits £169,000
London average house prices hits new record high of £472,384 - up 9.9%

Prices rose 0.2 per cent during the month lifting the average property price to £204,968. On an annual basis prices rose 5.1 per cent, up from inflation of 4.7 per cent recorded in May.

Read more: Property-prices-nudge-slightly-higher-month-near-205k-force-EU-referendum-result-felt

Post-Brexit gloom about UK residential property has taken hold, with investors pricing in a 5 per cent fall in home values over the coming year.

Housebuilders have been among the stocks worst hit by the sell-off since Thursday’s vote to leave the EU. The decline has been fuelled by fears that uncertainty will prompt consumers to delay homebuying decisions, weighing on house prices, while longer-term economic weakness could also set in.

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the collapse in housebuilders’ shares — before a slight recovery on Tuesday — was “consistent with a 5 per cent fall” in the prices of homes over the coming year.
He added, however: “I think they will fall, but 5 per cent may be overdoing it. The market overreacted in the initial panic. Prices may fall 2 to 3 per cent over the next 12 months.”

Shares in the UK’s four-largest housebuilders have fallen between 28 and 37 per cent since the referendum, as investors once enamoured with the sector have fled en masse. The companies’ shares had risen steadily over the past three years, boosted by a housing shortage, strong demand, cheap credit and government-backed homebuying schemes.

On Monday, trading was briefly suspended in Barratt Developments, Crest Nicholson, Taylor Wimpey and Berkeley Group after each of them dropped sharply enough to trigger a FTSE 100 “circuit breaker” mechanism. The market found some relief on Tuesday with a trading update from Redrow, a FTSE 250 builder, which said its results were set to come in at the top end of expectations for the year to June.

“Although it is too early to tell whether Brexit will have any effect on future sales, initial feedback is that sites remain busy, reservations continue to be taken and, indeed, we witnessed long queues and strong reservations at new sites launched last weekend,” Redrow said.

The Flintshire-based company said it had experienced no slowdown in the run-up to the Brexit vote, but Berkeley — known for its high-end London developments — said earlier this month that its reservations dropped 20 per cent in the first five months of 2016 from a year earlier.

In depth - Brexit

The housing market in London had already begun to stall before the vote, after stamp duty on expensive homes was increased and demand from overseas buyers began to wane. This prompted short-sellers to target shares in developers such as Berkeley from the start of the year.

“The London market was starting to slow anyway. A lot of the cards are stacking up against London, before we overlay the uncertainty of Brexit,” said Richard Donnell, research director at Hometrack. Crest Nicholson, another FTSE 250 housebuilder, said ahead of the vote that it would halt land investments and recruitment for three to six months while taking stock of the market if the UK voted to leave the EU.

Market observers now expect that the post-Brexit uncertainty will cause an initial chill in the housing market as consumers defer decisions. But the longer-term impact will depend on the economic fallout, potential interest rate rises, and to what extent London can retain its status as a global financial centre.

Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch expect a 10 per cent drop in transaction volumes combined with a 10 per cent house price correction over the coming year — among the more pessimistic forecasts. Charlie Campbell, analyst at Liberum, said real house prices had fallen 3-3.5 per cent in 2012 and 1996, both years of economic downturn.

Housebuilders with strong levels of forward sales, such as Bellway, Redrow and Berkeley, are better positioned to weather short-term uncertainty, he added.

Investors had piled into housebuilders in recent years — more than doubling valuations between 2011 and early 2015 — as they strengthened their margins and many groups, such as Berkeley and Persimmon, announced multiyear programmes of dividend payments to shareholders. Mr Campbell said these would likely still go ahead: “Housebuilders’ balance sheets are much stronger and in a much better position to withstand shocks than in 2008 and 2009. With a bit of luck, I think the dividends will get paid.”
He noted, however, that the market must still contend with extreme levels of uncertainty, as the UK faces a political vacuum as well as a changed future in Europe.
“There are a lot of unknowables, and political jitters make quite a difference. You wouldn’t normally get people rushing in to buy housebuilders with no government in place,” he said.

re - plus side

We are there now +3.20p as the order book is very strong on the bid side

DEPTH double the amount trades on the bid side

Thank you mentor saw your post here and bought in this am. Nicely in profit now.

Ditto mentor, well spotted and thank you also got in at 337.20 at 10.40 this morning.

Good on you to spot the bargains and put some money on them

the bounce is on, for how long is another thing

Close at best of the day, good enough being the first day of bounce, and only went over to the plus side after 2pm

UT @ 364.30p with a large trade 445K

16:35:14
364.30
445,370 UT