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FTSE + FTSE 250 - consider trading (FTSE)     

cynic - 20 Oct 2007 12:12

rather than pick out individual stocks to trade, it can often be worthwhile to trade the indices themselves, especially in times of high volatility.

for those so inclined, i attach below charts for FTSE and FTSE 250, though one might equally be tempted to trade Dow or S&P, which is significantly broader in its coverage, or even NASDAQ

for ease of reading, i have attached 1 year and 3 month charts in each instance

cynic - 25 Jan 2008 17:18 - 746 of 21973

i seem to have closed out long Dow at 12395 near the bell last night but went short this morning when indicator showed Dow at 12450, which i then closed at 12364

halifax - 25 Jan 2008 18:33 - 747 of 21973

Cynic well called! E

spitfire43 - 25 Jan 2008 18:37 - 748 of 21973

Just been watching a market report on sky, and some analyst from the city (forget who) saying Mondays sell off partly caused by society General covering positions after the massive fraud. And more interesting, suspects that Bank of France hadn't informed the ECB or the FED of the fraud, and believes if the FED had known they may not have lowered rates by so much.

I wouldn't expect any rate cuts next week from the Fed. I think FTSE is high enough for now, with more uncertain weeks and months ahead.

halifax - 25 Jan 2008 18:49 - 749 of 21973

Spitfire do you believe everything the little scribblers say? My bet is on .25% cut.

spitfire43 - 25 Jan 2008 18:56 - 750 of 21973

Not alot I must admit, but even without that I can't see another cut. Financials seem to be suffering again on DOW now.

halifax - 25 Jan 2008 19:05 - 751 of 21973

I must say I took a few chips off the table late afternoon, we may be heading for the final plunge on monday. A further rate cut is essential in order to reinforce the trend, I hope Mervyn is learning from all this as he drinks his Horlicks tonight.

maddoctor - 25 Jan 2008 19:48 - 752 of 21973

0.25 is being called

The dark side of interest rate cuts
And some Fed watchers say if the Fed delivers a cut, it'll be a sign that Chairman Ben Bernanke and the rest of the Open Market Committee are being bullied by the markets.

"The action this week raises more questions than it answered," said Barry Ritholtz, CEO of Fusion IQ, a quantitative research firm. "The Fed's mandate is to maintain price stability and promote economic growth, not backstop the equity markets. That's not their responsibility, but it seems to be what they're doing."

"If they do less than that(0.5 cut), there will be a widespread sense of disappointment or worse throughout the market and that's a headache the policymakers don't need at this point," said Tom Schlesinger, executive director of the Financial Markets Center, a think tank that focuses on the Fed.

Even Ritholtz agrees that the market would have a "hissy fit" if the Fed doesn't deliver another half-point cut on Wednesday and that the Fed can't afford to let that happen

cynic - 25 Jan 2008 19:58 - 753 of 21973

Dow tracking firmly south ..... blood on Monday, though RIO and/or XTA could provide some excitement

maddoctor - 25 Jan 2008 20:00 - 754 of 21973

you know as well as i do cynic , they can wipe out a 100 point drop in minutes

got some news on rio , xta ?

cynic - 25 Jan 2008 21:03 - 755 of 21973

no more than is in the public domain, unlike so many tarts who reckon they have the CEO's inside leg .... sorry, line!

Dow had a tricky day but just about managed to finish above 12200 where there is some kind of support .... still reckon London will open well down and Dow likely to be very nervous ahead of Fed meeting on Tuesday

to be honest, a further rate cut by Fed really does smell of brown trousers and may, slightly perversely, send the markets further south

stroreysj - 26 Jan 2008 03:03 - 756 of 21973

why is everyone so negative ?

Its healthy when a market takes a brief pause and profits are taken. No rally goes straight up. Fill Ya boots :-)

cynic - 26 Jan 2008 08:05 - 757 of 21973

do that now with shares and you will end filling them with cement and jumping off a bridge

spitfire43 - 26 Jan 2008 09:29 - 758 of 21973

I posted earlier about if the FED had known about soc gen they may not have lowered rates by so much. This is all over the news channels now, it started as only a market rumour. If correct then FED hasn't left much room for manoeuvre, and even if they lowered again I'm sure this could spook the market, as a sign of panic. I would like to fill my boots with some shares, but certainly not at this time.

required field - 26 Jan 2008 10:18 - 759 of 21973

Well Children, it looks like there will be ups and downs all year long, for those that can trade in and out quickly, lots of dosh to be made, on Monday another downturn possibly, hope it's not too bad...

maddoctor - 26 Jan 2008 14:56 - 760 of 21973

. come on Havant!

cynic - 26 Jan 2008 16:30 - 761 of 21973

Havant haven't a hope (any more)!

On a more serious note ..... imo, any sensible investor will place a least a couple of short psotions for the next week, even if only as insurance .... the most obvious plays are the indices themselves, the easiest being FTSE and DOW, though the lesser indices on both sides of the Atlantic will also be possible ... for the really brave, there is HK and Japan, but though those are likely to reap the greatest rewards, they are very dangerous, if for no other reason that they are open while we sleep, and my goodness it will cost you dear if you call it wrong.

Of stocks, I think SOLA is a cinch, but then I have followed that for quite a while ..... A&L (AL.) is heavily vulnerable too .... indeed anything connected with the financial sector must surely be at risk of tumbling quite significantly.

spitfire43 - 26 Jan 2008 17:17 - 762 of 21973

SOLA still looks a short, but surprised it's hung on in last few day's, I like the look of KGF for a short, a new CEO announced Friday from within B&Q, market wanted someone from outside and divi cut looks certain, they have been strong recently.

FTSE worth shorting on any bounce up.

explosive - 26 Jan 2008 21:24 - 763 of 21973

I'm looking to the oilies this week CNE and DGO. If the FTSE is holding or on the rally I'll be buying. Neither share imo should fall much further as both appear to have support... May play the indicies if I can see momentum with an RSI of 35+ looking upwards... Due to volitility though not much point betting with a stop loss in place which makes margins high, my broker asks for 200 x stake on wall st. if betting open, this means I'm unable to bet more than a few pounds per point and also cover the margin. I keep looking at Inter Continential Hotels for a buy, the sp has pretty much halved recently, anyone else got a view on this. Cynic and Spitfire I'll have a look at SOLA also, thanks for the tip..

cynic - 27 Jan 2008 07:41 - 764 of 21973

if you are betting on the indices, always depending on the depth of your wallet, i would not reccomend too hefty a stake anyway .... also, with current volatility, you do need to be able to watch almost constantly, to take profits, cut losses and/or trade with the rhythm

spitfire43 - 27 Jan 2008 10:55 - 765 of 21973

explosive - I read a small article on IHG in shares 10th Jan, which was looking at the effects of a weak dollar, even at 763p the PE is 18. I have pasted article below incase you missed it.

Intercontinental Hotels (IHG) 861p

EPS growth: 23% 2008 PE: 18.7

Three-month relative strength: -13.8%

Sector: Travel & Leisure

The company maintains that it hasnt seen a slowdown in demand from US customers, but the US exchange rate is reducing earnings, and Cazenove has downgraded its forecasts. In terms of demand, US consumers are not rolling in money and hotels bookings are the first thing to be cut in tough times.

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